The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. METHODS: We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. RESULTS: Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95% uncertainty interval: US$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs.

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. METHODS: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. FINDINGS: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. FUNDING: WHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

Recommendation mapping of the World Health Organization's guidelines on tuberculosis: A new approach to digitizing and presenting recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Having up-to-date health policy recommendations accessible in one location is in high demand by guideline users. We developed an easy to navigate interactive approach to organize recommendations and applied it to tuberculosis (TB) guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO). STUDY DESIGN: We used a mixed-methods study design to develop a framework for recommendation mapping with seven key methodological considerations. We define a recommendation map as an online repository of recommendations from several guidelines on a condition, providing links to the underlying evidence and expert judgments that inform them, allowing users to filter and cross-tabulate the search results. We engaged guideline developers, users, and health software engineers in an iterative process to elaborate the WHO eTB recommendation map. RESULTS: Applying the seven-step framework, we included 228 recommendations, linked to 103 guideline questions and organized the recommendation map according to key components of the health question, including the original recommendations and rationale (https://who.tuberculosis.recmap.org/). CONCLUSION: The recommendation mapping framework provides the entire continuum of evidence mapping by framing recommendations within a guideline questions' population, interventions, and comparators domains. Recommendation maps should allow guideline developers to organize their work meaningfully, standardize the automated publication of guidelines through links to the GRADEpro guideline development tool, and increase their accessibility and usability.

Vitamin D and Phenylbutyrate Supplementation Does Not Modulate Gut Derived Immune Activation in HIV-1.

Dysbiosis and a dysregulated gut immune barrier function contributes to chronic immune activation in HIV-1 infection. We investigated if nutritional supplementation with vitamin D and phenylbutyrate could improve gut-derived inflammation, selected microbial metabolites, and composition of the gut microbiota. Treatment-naïve HIV-1-infected individuals (n = 167) were included from a double-blind, randomized, and placebo-controlled trial of daily 5000 IU vitamin D and 500 mg phenylbutyrate for 16 weeks (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01702974). Baseline and per-protocol plasma samples at week 16 were analysed for soluble CD14, the antimicrobial peptide LL-37, kynurenine/tryptophan-ratio, TMAO, choline, and betaine. Assessment of the gut microbiota involved 16S rRNA gene sequencing of colonic biopsies. Vitamin D + phenylbutyrate treatment significantly increased 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (p < 0.001) but had no effects on sCD14, the kynurenine/tryptophan-ratio, TMAO, or choline levels. Subgroup-analyses of vitamin D insufficient subjects demonstrated a significant increase of LL-37 in the treatment group (p = 0.02), whereas treatment failed to significantly impact LL-37-levels in multiple regression analysis. Further, no effects on the microbiota was found in number of operational taxonomic units (p = 0.71), Shannon microbial diversity index (p = 0.82), or in principal component analyses (p = 0.83). Nutritional supplementation with vitamin D + phenylbutyrate did not modulate gut-derived inflammatory markers or microbial composition in treatment-naïve HIV-1 individuals with active viral replication.

Daily Nutritional Supplementation with Vitamin D3 and Phenylbutyrate to Treatment-Naïve HIV Patients Tested in a Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial.

Poor nutritional status is common among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients including vitamin D (vitD3) deficiency. We conducted a double-blinded, randomized, and placebo-controlled trial in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to investigate if daily nutritional supplementation with vitD3 (5000 IU) and phenylbutyrate (PBA, 2 × 500 mg) could mediate beneficial effects in treatment-naïve HIV patients. Primary endpoint: the change in plasma HIV-1 comparing week 0 to 16 using modified intention-to-treat (mITT, n = 197) and per-protocol (n = 173) analyses. Secondary endpoints: longitudinal HIV viral load, T cell counts, body mass index (BMI), middle-upper-arm circumference (MUAC), and 25(OH)D3 levels in plasma. Baseline characteristics were detectable viral loads (median 7897 copies/mL), low CD4⁺ (median 410 cells/µL), and elevated CD8⁺ (median 930 cells/µL) T cell counts. Most subjects were vitD3 deficient at enrolment, but a gradual and significant improvement of vitD3 status was demonstrated in the vitD3 + PBA group compared with placebo (p < 0.0001) from week 0 to 16 (median 37.5 versus 115.5 nmol/L). No significant changes in HIV viral load, CD4⁺ or CD8⁺ T cell counts, BMI or MUAC could be detected. Clinical adverse events were similar in both groups. Daily vitD3 + PBA for 16 weeks was well-tolerated and effectively improved vitD3 status but did not reduce viral load, restore peripheral T cell counts or improve BMI or MUAC in HIV patients with slow progressive disease. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01702974.

A bibliometric analysis of tuberculosis research, 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) research is a key component of the End TB Strategy. To track research output, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of TB research from the past decade. METHODS: The Web of Science database was searched for publications from January 2007 to December 2016 with "tuberculosis" in the title. References were analysed using the R bibliometrix package. A year-stratified 5% random subset was drawn to extract funding sources and identify research areas. FINDINGS: The annual growth rate of publications was 7.3%, and was highest (13.1%) among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). The USA was the most productive country, with 18.4% of references, followed by India (9.7%), China (7.3%), England (6.5%), and South Africa (3.9%). In the subset analysis, the most common research area was 'fundamental research' (33.8%). Frequently acknowledged funders were US and EU-based, with China and India emerging as top funders. Collaborations appeared more frequently between high-income countries and low/medium income countries (LMICs), with fewer collaborations among LMICs. CONCLUSION: The past decade has seen a continued increase in TB publications. While USA continues to dominate research output and funding, BRICS countries have emerged as major research producers and funders. Collaborations among BRICS would enhance future TB research productivity.

Eosinophils and IL-4 Support Nematode Growth Coincident with an Innate Response to Tissue Injury.

It has become increasingly clear that the functions of eosinophils extend beyond host defense and allergy to metabolism and tissue regeneration. These influences have strong potential to be relevant in worm infections in which eosinophils are prominent and parasites rely on the host for nutrients to support growth or reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanism underlying the observation that eosinophils promote growth of Trichinella spiralis larvae in skeletal muscle. Our results indicate that IL-4 and eosinophils are necessary for normal larval growth and that eosinophils from IL-4 competent mice are sufficient to support growth. The eosinophil-mediated effect operates in the absence of adaptive immunity. Following invasion by newborn larvae, host gene expression in skeletal muscle was compatible with a regenerative response and a shift in the source of energy in infected tissue. The presence of eosinophils suppressed local inflammation while also influencing nutrient homeostasis in muscle. Redistribution of glucose transporter 4 (GLUT4) and phosphorylation of Akt were observed in nurse cells, consistent with enhancement of glucose uptake and glycogen storage by larvae that is known to occur. The data are consistent with a mechanism in which eosinophils promote larval growth by an IL-4 dependent mechanism that limits local interferon-driven responses that otherwise alter nutrient metabolism in infected muscle. Our findings document a novel interaction between parasite and host in which worms have evolved a strategy to co-opt an innate host cell response in a way that facilitates their growth.

Eosinophils mediate protective immunity against secondary nematode infection.

Eosinophils are versatile cells that regulate innate and adaptive immunity, influence metabolism and tissue repair, and contribute to allergic lung disease. Within the context of immunity to parasitic worm infections, eosinophils are prominent yet highly varied in function. We have shown previously that when mice undergo primary infection with the parasitic nematode Trichinella spiralis, eosinophils play an important immune regulatory role that promotes larval growth and survival in skeletal muscle. In this study, we aimed to address the function of eosinophils in secondary infection with T. spiralis. By infecting eosinophil-ablated mice, we found that eosinophils are dispensable for immunity that clears adult worms or controls fecundity in secondary infection. In contrast, eosinophil ablation had a pronounced effect on secondary infection of skeletal muscle by migratory newborn larvae. Restoring eosinophils to previously infected, ablated mice caused them to limit muscle larvae burdens. Passive immunization of naive, ablated mice with sera or Ig from infected donors, together with transfer of eosinophils, served to limit the number of newborn larvae that migrated in tissue and colonized skeletal muscle. Results from these in vivo studies are consistent with earlier findings that eosinophils bind to larvae in the presence of Abs in vitro. Although our previous findings showed that eosinophils protect the parasite in primary infection, these new data show that eosinophils protect the host in secondary infection.

Eosinophil-derived IL-10 supports chronic nematode infection.

Eosinophilia is a feature of the host immune response that distinguishes parasitic worms from other pathogens, yet a discrete function for eosinophils in worm infection has been elusive. The aim of this study was to clarify the mechanism(s) underlying the striking and unexpected observation that eosinophils protect intracellular, muscle-stage Trichinella spiralis larvae against NO-mediated killing. Our findings indicate that eosinophils are specifically recruited to sites of infection at the earliest stage of muscle infection, consistent with a local response to injury. Early recruitment is essential for larval survival. By producing IL-10 at the initiation of infection, eosinophils expand IL-10(+) myeloid dendritic cells and CD4(+) IL-10(+) T lymphocytes that inhibit inducible NO synthase (iNOS) expression and protect intracellular larvae. The results document a novel immunoregulatory function of eosinophils in helminth infection, in which eosinophil-derived IL-10 drives immune responses that eventually limit local NO production. In this way, the parasite co-opts an immune response in a way that enhances its own survival.

Eosinophils preserve parasitic nematode larvae by regulating local immunity.

Eosinophils play important roles in regulation of cellular responses under conditions of homeostasis or infection. Intestinal infection with the parasitic nematode, Trichinella spiralis, induces a pronounced eosinophilia that coincides with establishment of larval stages in skeletal muscle. We have shown previously that in mouse strains in which the eosinophil lineage is ablated, large numbers of T. spiralis larvae are killed by NO, implicating the eosinophil as an immune regulator. In this report, we show that parasite death in eosinophil-ablated mice correlates with reduced recruitment of IL-4(+) T cells and enhanced recruitment of inducible NO synthase (iNOS)-producing neutrophils to infected muscle, as well as increased iNOS in local F4/80(+)CD11b(+)Ly6C(+) macrophages. Actively growing T. spiralis larvae were susceptible to killing by NO in vitro, whereas mature larvae were highly resistant. Growth of larvae was impaired in eosinophil-ablated mice, potentially extending the period of susceptibility to the effects of NO and enhancing parasite clearance. Transfer of eosinophils into eosinophil-ablated ΔdblGATA mice restored larval growth and survival. Regulation of immunity was not dependent upon eosinophil peroxidase or major basic protein 1 and did not correlate with activity of the IDO pathway. Our results suggest that eosinophils support parasite growth and survival by promoting accumulation of Th2 cells and preventing induction of iNOS in macrophages and neutrophils. These findings begin to define the cellular interactions that occur at an extraintestinal site of nematode infection in which the eosinophil functions as a pivotal regulator of immunity.

Eosinophil deficiency compromises parasite survival in chronic nematode infection.

Immune responses elicited by parasitic worms share many features with those of chronic allergy. Eosinophils contribute to the inflammation that occurs in both types of disease, and helminths can be damaged or killed by toxic products released by eosinophils in vitro. Such observations inform the widely held view that eosinophils protect the host against parasitic worms. The mouse is a natural host for Trichinella spiralis, a worm that establishes chronic infection in skeletal muscle. We tested the influence of eosinophils on T. spiralis infection in two mouse strains in which the eosinophil lineage is ablated. Eosinophils were prominent in infiltrates surrounding infected muscle cells of wild-type mice; however, in the absence of eosinophils T. spiralis muscle larvae died in large numbers. Parasite death correlated with enhanced IFN-gamma and decreased IL-4 production. Larval survival improved when mice were treated with inhibitors of inducible NO synthase, implicating the NO pathway in parasite clearance. Thus, the long-standing paradigm of eosinophil toxicity in nematode infection requires reevaluation, as our results suggest that eosinophils may influence the immune response in a manner that would sustain chronic infection and insure worm survival in the host population. Such a mechanism may be deployed by other parasitic worms that depend upon chronic infection for survival.