RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In developing nations with fragile healthcare systems, the effect of war is likely to be much worse than it would be in more developed countries. The presence of COVID-19 will also likely exacerbate the war's impact. This study set out to determine the effect of armed conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. METHODS: An interrupted time-series study design was used to analyze patient visits over forty-eight consecutive months (from July 2017 to June 2021) at inpatient, outpatient, and emergency departments. Data were analyzed using segmented regression analysis with a defined outcome of level and trend changes in the number of patient visits. In addition, negative binomial regression analysis was also used to estimate the impact of both COVID-19 and the war on patient flow. RESULTS: There were 59,935 admissions, 876,533 outpatient visits, and 127,872 emergency room visits. The effect of COVID-19 was seen as soon as the Tigray regional government imposed comprehensive restrictions. Immediately after COVID-19 appeared, all the service areas exhibited a significant monthly drop in visits; [-35.6% (95% CI: -48.2%, -23.1%)] for inpatient, [-60.6% (95% CI: -71.6%, -49.5%)] for outpatient, and [-44.1% (95% CI: -59.5%, -28.7%)] for emergency department visits. The impact of the war became apparent after a lag time of one month. Controlling the effects of time and COVID-19, the war led to a significant fall in inpatient visits [-44.3% (95% CI: -67.2%, -21.5%)], outpatients [-52.1% (95% CI: -82.7%, -21.5%)], and emergency-room attendances [-45.0% (95% CI: -74.8%, -15.2%)]. An upward trend in outpatient flow was observed after the war [1,219.4 (95% CI: 326.1, 2,112.8)]. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has clearly indicated that the war and COVID-19 have led to a large reduction in admissions, outpatient attendance, and emergency department visits. The evidence from this study suggests that due to this double catastrophe, thousands of patients could not gain access to healthcare, with probable negative consequences. Governments and organizations should implement measures to buttress the healthcare system to maintain pre-war status of service.
RESUMEN
Background: : The safety of COVID vaccines should be continuously followed. This study reports adverse events of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: : A prospective single-cohort study design was conducted to assess adverse events following immunization and associated factors of the first dose of Oxford/AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine in Ayder Comprehensive specialized hospital. A structured questionnaire was administered consecutively to 423 participants. Follow-up data were collected 72 hours after vaccination via phone. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to find associations between adverse events and independent variables. Statistical significance was declared at P<0.05. Results: : Out of 423 health care workers approached, 395 responded. At least one adverse event (95% CI: 63.58, 72.77) was reported by 270 participants. Local and systemic symptoms occurred in 46.8% (95% CI: 41.94, 51.79) and 58.48% (95% CI: 53.53, 63.26)], respectively. Muscle ache, fatigue, headache and fever were the most common local symptoms. No reports of hospitalization, disability or death. Age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=0.97, P=0.048), female sex (AOR=1.84, P=0.028), and comorbidity (AOR=2.28, P=0.040) were independent predictors of adverse events. Conclusion and recommendation: : Adverse events following immunization are commonly reported after the first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine; age, female sex and comorbidity are independent predictors.
