Natural History of Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer Managed With Watchful Waiting.

Importance: It is uncertain to what extent watchful waiting (WW) in men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer (PCa) and a life expectancy of less than 10 years is associated with adverse consequences. Objective: To report transitions to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), death from PCa, or death from other causes in men treated with a WW strategy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide, population-based cohort study included men with nonmetastatic PCa diagnosed since 2007 and registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden with WW as the primary treatment strategy and with life expectancy less than 10 years. Life expectancy was calculated based on age, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and a drug comorbidity index. Observed state transition models complemented observed data to extend follow-up to more than 20 years. Analyses were performed between 2022 and 2023. Exposure: Nonmetastatic PCa. Main Outcomes and Measures: Transitions to ADT, CRPC, death from PCa, and death from other causes were measured using state transition modeling. Results: The sample included 5234 men (median [IQR] age at diagnosis, 81 [79-84] years). After 5 years, 954 men with low-risk PCa (66.2%) and 740 with high-risk PCa (36.1%) were still alive and not receiving ADT. At 10 years, the corresponding proportions were 25.5% (n = 367) and 10.4% (n = 213), respectively. After 10 years, 59 men with low-risk PCa (4.1%) and 221 with high-risk PCa (10.8%) had transitioned to CRPC. Ten years after diagnosis, 1330 deaths in the low-risk group (92.3%) and 1724 in the high-risk group (84.1%) were from causes other than PCa. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the WW management strategy is appropriate for minimizing adverse consequences of PCa in men with a baseline life expectancy of less than 10 years.

Triggers for transition from active surveillance to radical treatment of prostate cancer 2008-2020 - a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between objective signs of progression (triggers) and transition from active surveillance (AS) to radical treatment for prostate cancer (PC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This case-control study included men with low- or favourable intermediate-risk PC in the region of Halland, with data from The National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR), Sweden, starting AS between 2008 and 2020. Cases were men who transitioned to radical treatment. For each case, 10 controls who remained in AS were selected without further matching. Triggers for transition to treatment were histopathological progression, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) progression and increases in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. We compared the probabilities for triggers between cases and controls, in 2008-2014 and 2015-2020, using logistic regression. RESULTS: Amongst 846 men, we identified 98 cases in 2008-2014 and 172 cases in 2015-2020. Histopathological progression was associated with transition, most strongly in the later period (2008-2014: odds ratios [OR] 6.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.69-12.80; and 2015-2020: OR 75.29, 95% CI 39.60-143.17). MRI progression was associated with transition in 2015-2020 (OR 6.38, 95% CI 2.70-15.06), whereas an increase in PSA was weakly associated with transition in the early period. The absence of triggers was associated with no transition (2008-2014: OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.15-0.40, and 2015-2020: OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.06-0.14). The probability of no trigger was 27% in cases 2015-2020. CONCLUSION: The increase in association between histopathological trigger and transition to treatment indicates increased quality of AS. Still, amongst men treated from 2015 to 2020, 27% transitioned without any trigger.

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050.

We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1-30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5-30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections.

Development and validation of a multi-dimensional diagnosis-based comorbidity index that improves prediction of death in men with prostate cancer: Nationwide, population-based register study.

Assessment of comorbidity is crucial for confounding adjustment and prediction of mortality in register-based studies, but the commonly used Charlson comorbidity index is not sufficiently predictive. We aimed to develop a multidimensional diagnosis-based comorbidity index (MDCI) that captures comorbidity better than the Charlson Comorbidity index. The index was developed based on 286,688 men free of prostate cancer randomly selected from the Swedish general population, and validated in 54,539 men without and 68,357 men with prostate cancer. All ICD-10 codes from inpatient and outpatient discharges during 10 years prior to the index date were used to define variables indicating frequency of code occurrence, recency, and total duration of related hospital admissions. Penalized Cox regression was used to predict 10-year all-cause mortality. The MDCI predicted risk of death better than the Charlson comorbidity index, with a c-index of 0.756 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.751, 0.762) vs 0.688 (95% CI = 0.683, 0.693) in the validation cohort of men without prostate cancer. Men in the lowest vs highest MDCI quartile had distinctively different survival in the validation cohort of men with prostate cancer, with an overall hazard ratio [HR] of 5.08 (95% CI = 4.90, 5.26). This was also consistent within strata of age and Charlson comorbidity index, e.g. HR = 5.90 (95% CI = 4.65, 7.50) in men younger than 60 years with CCI 0. These results indicate that comorbidity assessment in register-based studies can be improved by use of all ICD-10 codes and taking related frequency, recency, and duration of hospital admissions into account.

Uptake of doublet therapy for de novo metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer: a population-based drug utilisation study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated prolonged survival with new upfront treatments in addition to standard androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in men with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. We describe patient characteristics, time trends and regional differences in uptake of these new treatment strategies in clinical practice. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This descriptive study consisted of men registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden from 1 January 2018 to 31 March 2022 with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer defined by the presence of metastases on imaging at the time of diagnosis. Life expectancy was calculated based on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and a Drug Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: Within 6 months from diagnosis, 57% (1,677/2,959) of men with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer and more than 3 years of life expectancy had received docetaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide and/or radiotherapy. Over time, there was a 2-fold increase in uptake of any added treatment, mainly driven by a 6-fold increase in use of abiraterone, enzalutamide or apalutamide, with little change in use of other treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Slightly more than half of men diagnosed with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer and a life expectancy of at least 3 years received additions to standard ADT as recommended by national guidelines in 2019-2022 in Sweden. There was a 2-fold increase in use of these treatments during the study period; however, efforts to further increase adherence to guidelines are warranted.

Survival Trend in Individuals With De Novo Metastatic Prostate Cancer After the Introduction of Doublet Therapy.

Importance: Recently, life-prolonging treatments for patients with advanced prostate cancer have been introduced in clinical practice. Objective: To investigate if the introduction of doublet therapy is associated with changes in survival on a population-basis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide population-based cohort study used data from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden from 2008 to 2020. Men registered with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) were included. Exposure: The proportion of men with mCSPC who received doublet therapy, ie, androgen deprivation therapy plus androgen receptor pathway inhibitor drugs or chemotherapy was assessed. Main Outcomes and Measures: Standardized overall survival, taking age, comorbidity, and cancer characteristics into consideration, was estimated by use of a parametric survival model. Results: A total of 11 382 men were included in this study (median [IQR] age, 74.0 [68-81] years). There was a shift toward less advanced prostate cancer during the study period with a decrease in median (IQR) prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis in men with mCSPC from 145 (39-571) ng/mL to 107 (27-426) ng/mL. Upfront treatment with doublet therapy in these men simultaneously increased from 1% (7 of 991) in 2016 to 44% (402 of 922) in 2020. The adjusted 5-year overall survival increased from 26% (95% CI, 25%-28%) from 2008 to 2012 to 35% (95% CI, 31%-40%) from 2017 to 2020. During the first 5 years after diagnosis, there was an increase in mean survival of 6 months, from 2.7 (95% CI, 2.6-2.8) years from 2008 to 2012 to 3.2 (95% CI, 3.1-3.1) years from 2017 to 2020. Conclusions and Relevance: In parallel with improvements in treatment of advanced prostate cancer, a clinically meaningful increase in mean survival was observed in men with de novo mCSPC in Sweden between 2008 and 2020 in this study.

Validation of myocarditis diagnoses in the Swedish patient register for analyses of potential adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines are associated with an increased risk of myocarditis using hospital discharge diagnoses as an outcome. The validity of these register-based diagnoses is uncertain. Methods: Patient records for subjects < 40 years of age and a diagnosis of myocarditis in the Swedish National Patient Register were manually reviewed. Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria for myocarditis were applied based on patient history, clinical examination, laboratory data, electrocardiograms, echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging and myocardial biopsy. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios, comparing the register-based outcome variable to validated outcomes. Interrater reliability was assessed by a blinded re-evaluation. Results: Overall, 95.6% (327/342) of cases registered as myocarditis were confirmed (definite, probable or possible myocarditis according to Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria, positive predictive value 0.96 [95% CI 0.93-0.98]). Of the 4.4% (15/342) cases reclassified as no myocarditis or as insufficient information, two cases had been exposed to the COVID-19 vaccine no more than 28 days before the myocarditis diagnosis, two cases were exposed >28 days before admission and 11 cases were unexposed to the vaccine. The reclassification had only minor impact on incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination. In total, 51 cases were sampled for a blinded re-evaluation. Of the 30 randomly sampled cases initially classified as either definite or probably myocarditis, none were re-classified after re-evaluation. Of the in all 15 cases initially classified as no myocarditis or insufficient information, 7 were after re-evaluation re-classified as probable or possible myocarditis. This re-classification was mostly due to substantial variability in electrocardiogram interpretation. Conclusion: This validation of register-based diagnoses of myocarditis by manual patient record review confirmed the register diagnosis in 96% of cases and had high interrater reliability. Reclassification had only a minor impact on the incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.

Association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and healthcare contacts for menstrual disturbance and bleeding in women before and after menopause: nationwide, register based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the risks of any menstrual disturbance and bleeding following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in women who are premenopausal or postmenopausal. DESIGN: A nationwide, register based cohort study. SETTING: All inpatient and specialised outpatient care in Sweden from 27 December 2020 to 28 February 2022. A subset covering primary care for 40% of the Swedish female population was also included. PARTICIPANTS: 2 946 448 Swedish women aged 12-74 years were included. Pregnant women, women living in nursing homes, and women with history of any menstruation or bleeding disorders, breast cancer, cancer of female genital organs, or who underwent a hysterectomy between 1 January 2015 and 26 December 2020 were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, by vaccine product (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222)) and dose (unvaccinated and first, second, and third dose) over two time windows (one to seven days, considered the control period, and 8-90 days). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Healthcare contact (admission to hospital or visit) for menstrual disturbance or bleeding before or after menopause (diagnosed with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes N91, N92, N93, N95). RESULTS: 2 580 007 (87.6%) of 2 946 448 women received at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and 1 652 472 (64.0%) 2 580 007 of vaccinated women received three doses before the end of follow-up. The highest risks for bleeding in women who were postmenopausal were observed after the third dose, in the one to seven days risk window (hazard ratio 1.28 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.62)) and in the 8-90 days risk window (1.25 (1.04 to 1.50)). The impact of adjustment for covariates was modest. Risk of postmenopausal bleeding suggested a 23-33% increased risk after 8-90 days with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 after the third dose, but the association with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was less clear. For menstrual disturbance or bleeding in women who were premenopausal, adjustment for covariates almost completely removed the weak associations noted in the crude analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Weak and inconsistent associations were observed between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and healthcare contacts for bleeding in women who are postmenopausal, and even less evidence was recorded of an association for menstrual disturbance or bleeding in women who were premenopausal. These findings do not provide substantial support for a causal association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and healthcare contacts related to menstrual or bleeding disorders.

Use of Antiepileptic Drugs and Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Nationwide Case-Control Study in Prostate Cancer Data Base Sweden.

An inverse association between use of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) and prostate cancer (PCa) has been suggested, putatively due to the histone deacetylases inhibitory (HDACi) properties of the AEDs. In a case-control study in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe), PCa cases diagnosed between 2014 and 2016 were matched to five controls by year of birth and county of residence. AED prescriptions were identified in the Prescribed Drug Registry. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for risk of PCa were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression, adjusted for civil status, education level, Charlson comorbidity index, number of outpatient visits, and cumulative duration of hospital stay. Dose responses in different PCa risk categories and HDACi properties of specific AED substances were further explored. 1738/31591 (5.5%) cases and 9674/156802 (6.2%) controls had been exposed to AED. Overall, users of any AED had a reduced risk of PCa as compared to nonusers (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) which was attenuated by adjustment to healthcare utilisation. A reduced risk was also observed in all models for high-risk or metastatic PCa in AED users compared to nonusers (OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81-0.97). No significant findings were observed for dose response or HDACi analyses. Our findings suggest a weak inverse association between AED use and PCa risk, which was attenuated by adjustment for healthcare utilisation. Moreover, our study showed no consistent dose-response pattern and no support for a stronger reduction related to HDAC inhibition. Further studies focusing on advanced PCa and PCa treatments are needed to better analyse the association between use of AED and risk of PCa.

Federated analyses of multiple data sources in drug safety studies.

PURPOSE: Studies of rare side effects of new drugs with limited exposure may require pooling of multiple data sources. Federated Analyses (FA) allow real-time, interactive, centralized statistical processing of individual-level data from different data sets without transfer of sensitive personal data. METHODS: We review IT-architecture, legal considerations, and statistical methods in FA, based on a Swedish Medical Products Agency methodological development project. RESULTS: In a review of all post-authorisation safety studies assessed by the EMA during 2019, 74% (20/27 studies) reported issues with lack of precision in spite of mean study periods of 9.3 years. FA could potentially improve precision in such studies. Depending on the statistical model, the federated approach can generate identical results to a standard analysis. FA may be particularly attractive for repeated collaborative projects where data is regularly updated. There are also important limitations. Detailed agreements between involved parties are strongly recommended to anticipate potential issues and conflicts, document a shared understanding of the project, and fully comply with legal obligations regarding ethics and data protection. FA do not remove the data harmonisation step, which remains essential and often cumbersome. Reliable support for technical integration with the local server architecture and security solutions is required. Common statistical methods are available, but adaptations may be required. CONCLUSIONS: Federated Analyses require competent and active involvement of all collaborating parties but have the potential to facilitate collaboration across institutional and national borders and improve the precision of postmarketing drug safety studies.

Choice of imputation method for missing metastatic status affected estimates of metastatic prostate cancer incidence.

OBJECTIVES: To study how handling missing data on M stage in a clinical cancer register affects estimates of incidence of metastatic prostate cancer. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Estimates of age-standardized incidence of metastatic prostate cancer were obtained by the use of data in a population-based clinical cancer register in Sweden and using four methods for imputation of missing M stage. Adjusted survival was used to compare men with known and imputed M stage. RESULTS: The proportion of men with missing M stage was high (66%) and varied according to the risk group and over calendar time. The estimated incidence of metastatic disease varied depending on imputation method, with all methods indicating a decreasing incidence over time. A combination of deterministic imputation (DI) and multiple imputation (MI) produced adjusted survival curves for men with imputed M stage that best resembled the survival for men with known M stage. CONCLUSIONS: Plausible estimates of incidence of metastatic prostate cancer in clinical cancer registers can be obtained by the use of a combination of DI of missing M stage and MI.

Optimized diagnosis-based comorbidity measures for all-cause mortality prediction in a national population-based ICU population.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to optimize prediction of long-term all-cause mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, using quantitative register-based comorbidity information assessed from hospital discharge diagnoses prior to intensive care treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Adult ICU admissions during 2006 to 2012 in the Swedish intensive care register were followed for at least 4 years. The performance of quantitative comorbidity measures based on the 5-year history of number of hospital admissions, length of stay, and time since latest admission in 36 comorbidity categories was compared in time-to-event analyses with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS3). RESULTS: During a 7-year period, there were 230,056 ICU admissions and 62,225 deaths among 188,965 unique individuals. The time interval from the most recent hospital stays and total length of stay within each comorbidity category optimized mortality prediction and provided clear separation of risk categories also within strata of age and CCI, with hazard ratios (HRs) comparing lowest to highest quartile ranging from 1.17 (95% CI: 0.52-2.64) to 6.41 (95% CI: 5.19-7.92). Risk separation was also observed within SAPS deciles with HR ranging from 1.07 (95% CI: 0.83-1.38) to 3.58 (95% CI: 2.12-6.03). CONCLUSION: Baseline comorbidity measures that included the time interval from the most recent hospital stay in 36 different comorbidity categories substantially improved long-term mortality prediction after ICU admission compared to the Charlson index and the SAPS score. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04109001, date of registration 2019-09-26 retrospectively.

Susceptibility to SARS-Cov-2 infection and risk for severe COVID-19 in patients with prostate cancer on androgen deprivation therapy.

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has been hypothesized to protect against COVID-19, but previous observational studies of men with prostate cancer on ADT have been inconsistent regarding mortality risk from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using data from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe), we identified a cohort of 114 547 men with prevalent prostate cancer on the start of follow-up in February 2020, and followed them until 16 December 2020 to evaluate the association between ADT and time to test positive for COVID-19. Among men testing positive for COVID-19, we used regression analyses to estimate the association between ADT and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission/death from any cause within 30 days of the positive test. In total, 1695 men with prostate cancer tested positive for COVID-19. In crude analyses, exposure to ADT was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of both testing positive for COVID-19 infection and subsequent hospital admission/death. Adjustment for age, comorbidity and prostate cancer risk category substantially attenuated the associations: HR 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.5) for testing positive for COVID-19, and OR 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-1.9) for risk of subsequent hospital admission/death. In conclusion, although these results suggest increased risks of a positive COVID-19 test, and COVID-19-related hospital admission/death in men on ADT, these findings are likely explained by confounding by old age, cancer-associated morbidity and other comorbidities being more prevalent in men on ADT, rather than a direct effect of the therapy.

Population-based estimates of age and comorbidity specific life expectancy: a first application in Swedish males.

INTRODUCTION: For clinical decision-making, an estimate of remaining lifetime is needed to assess benefit against harm of a treatment during the remaining lifespan. Here, we describe how to predict life expectancy based on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and a Drug Comorbidity Index (DCI), whilst also considering potential future changes in CCI and DCI using population-based data on Swedish men. METHODS: Simulations based on annual updates of vital status, CCI and DCI were used to estimate life expectancy at population level. The probabilities of these transitions were determined from generalised linear models using prostate cancer-free comparison men in PCBaSe Sweden. A simulation was performed for each combination of age, CCI, and DCI. Survival curves were created and compared to observed survival. Life expectancy was then calculated as the area under the simulated survival curve. RESULTS: There was good agreement between observed and simulated survival curves for most ages and comorbidities, except for younger men. With increasing age and comorbidity, there was a decrease in life expectancy. Cross-validation based on six regions in Sweden also showed that simulated and observed survival was similar. CONCLUSION: Our proposed method provides an alternative statistical approach to estimate life expectancy at population level based on age and comorbidity assessed by routinely collected information on diagnoses and filled prescriptions available in nationwide health care registers.

Androgen deprivation therapy, comorbidity, cancer stage and mortality from COVID-19 in men with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Androgens facilitate entrance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 into respiratory epithelial cells, and male sex is associated with a higher risk of death from corona virus disease (COVID-19). Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) could possibly improve COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) RAPID 2019, we evaluated the association between ADT and COVID-19 as registered cause of death in men with prostate cancer. Each case was matched to 50 controls by region. We used conditional logistic regression to adjust for confounders and also evaluated potential impact of residual confounding. RESULTS: We identified 474 men who died from COVID-19 in March-December 2020. In crude analyses, ADT exposure was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (odds ratio [OR] 5.05, 95% CI: 4.18-6.10); however, the OR was substantially attenuated after adjustment for age, comorbidity, prostate cancer characteristics at diagnosis, recent healthcare use, and indicators of advanced cancer (adjusted OR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.95-1.65). If adjustment has accounted for at least 85% of confounding, then the true effect could be no more than a 5% reduction of the odds for COVID-19 death. CONCLUSIONS: The increased mortality from COVID-19 in men with prostate cancer treated with ADT was mainly related to high age, comorbidity, and more advanced prostate cancer. There was no evidence to support the hypothesis that ADT is associated with improved COVID-19 outcomes.

Androgen deprivation therapy and excess mortality in men with prostate cancer during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Men have a higher risk of death from COVID-19 than women and androgens facilitate entrance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into respiratory epithelial cells. Thus, androgen deprivation therapy may reduce infection rates and improve outcomes for COVID-19. In the spring of 2020, Sweden was highly affected by COVID-19. The aim was to estimate the impact of androgen deprivation therapy on mortality from COVID-19 in men with prevalent prostate cancer by comparing all-cause mortality in the spring of 2020 to that in previous years. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden all men with prostate cancer on March 1 each year in 2015-2020 were followed until June 30 the same year. Exposure to androgen deprivation therapy was ascertained from filled prescriptions for bicalutamide monotherapy, gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRH), or bilateral orchidectomy. RESULTS: A total of 9,822 men died in March-June in the years 2015-2020, of whom 5,034 men were on androgen deprivation therapy. There was an excess mortality in 2020 vs previous years in all men. The crude relative mortality rate ratio for 2020 vs 2015-2019 was 0.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.04) in men on GnRH, and 0.90 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.05) in men on bicalutamide monotherapy. After multivariable adjustment these ratios were attenuated to 1.00 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.12) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.12), respectively. When restricting the analysis to the regions with the highest incidence of COVID-19 or to the time period between 2 April to 10 June when mortality in 2020 was increased >30% compared to previous years, the results were similar to the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this large national population-based cohort of men with prevalent prostate cancer, there was no clear evidence in support for an effect of androgen deprivation therapy on COVID-19 mortality.

A drug comorbidity index to predict mortality in men with castration resistant prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Charlson Comorbidity Index is a poor predictor of mortality in men with castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). To improve this prediction, we created a comorbidity index based on filled prescriptions intended to be used in registry-based studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a population-based cohort of men with CPRC a drug comorbidity index (DCI-CRPC) was calculated based on prescriptions filled during a 365-day period before the date of CRPC diagnosis to predict mortality. Five risk categories for men with CRPC were defined based on PSA kinetics. Mortality rates were described by Kaplan-Meier curves. The predictive ability of the DCI-CRPC was compared in univariable models to that of the original DCI, derived from men in the general population, and to that of the Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: In 1,885 men with CRPC the median overall survival ranged from 3.0 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8 to 3.4) in the first tertile of the DCI-CRPC, to 1.0 year (95% CI 0.9 to 1.1) in the third tertile of the DCI-CRPC. The index had higher discriminative ability (C-index 0.667) than the Charlson Comorbidity Index (C-index 0.508). The discriminative ability of the DCI-CRPC was highest in the subgroup with least aggressive cancer (C-index 0.651) and lowest in men with most aggressive cancer (C-index 0.618). The performance of the DCI-CRPC was comparable to that of the original DCI. CONCLUSION: Our newly created comorbidity index using filled prescriptions predicted death in men with CRPC better than the Charlson Comorbidity Index.

An Aggregated Comorbidity Measure Based on History of Filled Drug Prescriptions: Development and Evaluation in Two Separate Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The ability to account for comorbidity when estimating survival in a population diagnosed with cancer could be improved by using a drug comorbidity index based on filled drug prescriptions. METHODS: We created a drug comorbidity index from age-stratified univariable associations between filled drug prescriptions and time to death in 326,450 control males randomly selected from the general population to men with prostate cancer. We also evaluated the index in 272,214 control females randomly selected from the general population to women with breast cancer. RESULTS: The new drug comorbidity index predicted survival better than the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and a previously published prescription index during 11 years of follow-up. The concordance (C)-index for the new index was 0.73 in male and 0.76 in the female population, as compared with a C-index of 0.67 in men and 0.69 in women for the CCI. In men of age 75-84 years with CCI = 0, the median survival time was 7.1 years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.0, 7.3) in the highest index quartile. Comparing the highest to the lowest drug comorbidity index quartile resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.2 among men (95% CI = 2.1, 2.3) and 2.4 among women (95% CI = 2.3, 2.6). CONCLUSIONS: A new drug comorbidity index based on filled drug prescriptions improved prediction of survival beyond age and the CCI alone. The index will allow a more accurate baseline estimation of expected survival for comparing treatment outcomes and evaluating treatment guidelines in populations of people with cancer.

Short-term ciprofloxacin prophylaxis for prostate biopsy and risk of aortic aneurysm. Nationwide, population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The use of quinolones has recently been questioned due to reports on side effects including an increased risk of aortic aneurysm. The aim of the study was to examine the risk of aortic aneurysm (AA) after short-term ciprofloxacin as prophylaxis for prostate biopsy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden and investigated 192,024 prostate biopsy exposures vs. 554,974 non-exposures for risk of AA.Prostate biopsy was used as a proxy for quinolone use as short-term ciprofloxacin is the recommended and documented prophylaxis in Sweden for this procedure.The outcome was the hazard ratio (HR) of AA in men who underwent a biopsy vs. those that did not. RESULTS: The absolute risk of AA was small, 39/10,000 person years for all AÁs and for ruptured AÁs 3.5/10,000 person years. In multivariate analyses, there were small, non-significant increases in risk of all AA's (adjusted HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.39) and ruptured AÁs (adjusted HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.52 to 2.15) in men who underwent biopsy. A significantly increased risk of AA was observed in men diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer on biopsy (HR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.15-2.21). The use of prostate biopsy as a proxy for exposure to ciprofloxacin was a limitation of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term ciprofloxacin was not associated with an increased risk of aortic aneurysm and the increased risk in men with high-risk prostate cancer was likely due detection bias caused by imaging more commonly performed in these men.