Developmental trajectories of socio-emotional outcomes of children and young people in out-of-home care - Insights from data of Pathways of Care Longitudinal Study (POCLS).

BACKGROUND: There has been a limited understanding of the longitudinal trajectory and determinants of socio-emotional outcomes among children in out-of-home care (OOHC). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine child socio-demographics, pre-care maltreatment, placement, and caregiver factors associated with trajectories of socio-emotional difficulties of children in OOHC. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The study sample (n = 345) included data from the Pathways of Care Longitudinal Study (POCLS), a prospective longitudinal cohort of children aged 3-17 years who entered the OOHC system in New South Wales (NSW) Australia, between 2010 and 2011. METHODS: Group-based trajectory models were used to identify distinct socio-emotional trajectory groups based on the Child Behaviour Check List (CBCL) Total Problem T-scores completed at all four Waves 1-4. Modified Poisson regression analysis was conducted to assess the association (risk ratios) of socio-emotional trajectory group membership with pre-care maltreatment, placement, and caregiver-related factors. RESULTS: Three trajectories of socio-emotional development were identified: 'persistently low difficulties' (average CBCL T-score changed from 40 to 38 over time), normal (average CBCL T-score changed from 52 to 55 over time), and clinical (average CBCL T-score remained at 68 over time) trajectories. Each trajectory presented a stable trend over time. Relative/kinship care, as compared with foster care, was associated with the "persistently low" socio-emotional trajectory. Being male, exposure to ≥8 pre-care substantiated risk of significant harm (ROSH) reports, placement changes, and caregiver's psychological distress (more than two-fold increased risk) were associated with the clinical socio-emotional trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Early intervention to ensure children have a nurturing care environment and psychological support to caregivers are vital for positive socio-emotional development over time among children in long-term OOHC.

Socio-demographic correlates of unhealthy lifestyle in Ethiopia: a secondary analysis of a national survey.

BACKGROUND: Multiple lifestyle risk factors exhibit a stronger association with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) compared to a single factor, emphasizing the necessity of considering them collectively. By integrating these major lifestyle risk factors, we can identify individuals with an overall unhealthy lifestyle, which facilitates the provision of targeted interventions for those at significant risk of NCDs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the socio-demographic correlates of unhealthy lifestyles among adolescents and adults in Ethiopia. METHODS: A national cross-sectional survey, based on the World Health Organization's NCD STEPS instruments, was conducted in Ethiopia. The survey, carried out in 2015, involved a total of 9,800 participants aged between 15 and 69 years. Lifestyle health scores, ranging from 0 (most healthy) to 5 (most unhealthy), were derived considering factors such as daily fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking status, prevalence of overweight/obesity, alcohol intake, and levels of physical activity. An unhealthy lifestyle was defined as the co-occurrence of three or more unhealthy behaviors. To determine the association of socio-demographic factors with unhealthy lifestyles, multivariable logistic regression models were utilized, adjusting for metabolic factors, specifically diabetes and high blood pressure. RESULTS: Approximately one in eight participants (16.7%) exhibited three or more unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, which included low fruit/vegetable consumption (98.2%), tobacco use (5.4%), excessive alcohol intake (15%), inadequate physical activity (66%), and obesity (2.3%). Factors such as male sex, urban residency, older age, being married or in a common-law relationship, and a higher income were associated with these unhealthy lifestyles. On the other hand, a higher educational status was associated with lower odds of these behaviors. CONCLUSION: In our analysis, we observed a higher prevalence of concurrent unhealthy lifestyles. Socio-demographic characteristics, such as sex, age, marital status, residence, income, and education, were found to correlate with individuals' lifestyles. Consequently, tailored interventions are imperative to mitigate the burden of unhealthy lifestyles in Ethiopia.

Mapping national, regional and local prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia using geospatial analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to map the national, regional and local prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nationwide cross-sectional survey in Ethiopia combined with georeferenced ecological level data from publicly available sources. PARTICIPANTS: 9801 participants aged between 15 and 69 years. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of hypertension and diabetes were collected using the WHO's STEPS survey approach. Bayesian model-based geostatistical techniques were used to estimate hypertension and diabetes prevalence at national, regional and pixel levels (1×1 km2) with corresponding 95% credible intervals (95% CrIs). RESULTS: The national prevalence was 19.2% (95% CI: 18.4 to 20.0) for hypertension and 2.8% (95% CI: 2.4 to 3.1) for diabetes. Substantial variation was observed in the prevalence of these diseases at subnational levels, with the highest prevalence of hypertension observed in Addis Ababa (30.6%) and diabetes in Somali region (8.7%). Spatial overlap of high hypertension and diabetes prevalence was observed in some regions such as the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's region and Addis Ababa. Population density (number of people/km2) was positively associated with the prevalence of hypertension (ß: 0.015; 95% CrI: 0.003-0.027) and diabetes (ß: 0.046; 95% CrI: 0.020-0.069); whereas altitude in kilometres was negatively associated with the prevalence of diabetes (ß: -0.374; 95% CrI: -0.711 to -0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Spatial clustering of hypertension and diabetes was observed at subnational and local levels in Ethiopia, which was significantly associated with population density and altitude. The variation at the subnational level illustrates the need to include environmental drivers in future NCDs burden estimation. Thus, targeted and integrated interventions in high-risk areas might reduce the burden of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

Geographical heterogeneity and socio-ecological risk profiles of dengue in Jakarta, Indonesia.

The aim of this study was to assess the role of climate variability on the incidence of dengue fever (DF), an endemic arboviral infection existing in Jakarta, Indonesia. The work carried out included analysis of the spatial distribution of confirmed DF cases from January 2007 to December 2018 characterising the sociodemographical and ecological factors in DF high-risk areas. Spearman's rank correlation was used to examine the relationship between DF incidence and climatic factors. Spatial clustering and hotspots of DF were examined using global Moran's I statistic and the local indicator for spatial association analysis. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to compare and identify demographical and socio-ecological characteristics of the identified hotspots and low-risk clusters. The seasonality of DF incidence was correlated with precipitation (r=0.254, P<0.01), humidity (r=0.340, P<0.01), dipole mode index (r= -0.459, P<0.01) and Tmin (r= -0.181, P<0.05). DF incidence was spatially clustered at the village level (I=0.294, P<0.001) and 22 hotspots were identified with a concentration in the central and eastern parts of Jakarta. CART analysis showed that age and occupation were the most important factors explaining DF clustering. Areaspecific and population-targeted interventions are needed to improve the situation among those living in the identified DF high-risk areas in Jakarta.

COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. RESULTS: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. CONCLUSION: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

Risk factors for COVID-19 infection, disease severity and related deaths in Africa: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive evidence on risk factors for transmission, disease severity and COVID-19 related deaths in Africa. DESIGN: A systematic review has been conducted to synthesise existing evidence on risk factors affecting COVID-19 outcomes across Africa. DATA SOURCES: Data were systematically searched from MEDLINE, Scopus, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies for review were included if they were published in English and reported at least one risk factor and/or one health outcome. We included all relevant literature published up until 11 August 2020. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We performed a systematic narrative synthesis to describe the available studies for each outcome. Data were extracted using a standardised Joanna Briggs Institute data extraction form. RESULTS: Fifteen articles met the inclusion criteria of which four were exclusively on Africa and the remaining 11 papers had a global focus with some data from Africa. Higher rates of infection in Africa are associated with high population density, urbanisation, transport connectivity, high volume of tourism and international trade, and high level of economic and political openness. Limited or poor access to healthcare are also associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates. Older people and individuals with chronic conditions such as HIV, tuberculosis and anaemia experience severe forms COVID-19 leading to hospitalisation and death. Similarly, high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high prevalence of tobacco consumption and low levels of expenditure on health and low levels of global health security score contribute to COVID-19 related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic, institutional, ecological, health system and politico-economic factors influenced the spectrum of COVID-19 infection, severity and death. We recommend multidisciplinary and integrated approaches to mitigate the identified factors and strengthen effective prevention strategies.

TB and HIV Epidemiology and Collaborative Service: Evidence from Ethiopia, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Integrating and scaling up tuberculosis (TB) and HIV services are essential strategies to achieve the combined goals ending both TB and HIV, especially in TB and HIV high burden countries. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection and the implementation of collaborative services in Ethiopia. METHODS: We used a national sentinel surveillance TB/HIV co-infection collected between 2010 and 2015. The Ethiopian Public Health Institute collected and collated the data quarterly from 79 health facilities in nine regional states and two city administrations. RESULTS: A total of 55,336 people living with HIV/AIDS were screened for active TB between 2011 and 2015. Of these, 7.3% were found co-infected with TB, and 13% TB-negative PLWHA were on isoniazid preventive therapy. Nine out of ten (89.2%) active TB patients were screened for HIV counselling and 17.8% were found to be HIV positive; 78.2% and 53.0% of HIV/TB co-infected patients were receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy and antiretroviral treatment, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection failed to decrease over the study period, and that, while there was an increasing trend for integration of collaborative services, this was not uniform over time. Aligning and integrating TB and HIV responses are still needed to achieve the target of ending TB and HIV by 2030.

Predictors of mortality among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in central Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study.

The burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) related to mortality in resource-poor countries remains high. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and predictors of death among MDR-TB patients in central Ethiopia. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at three hospitals in the Amhara region on 451 patients receiving treatment for MDR-TB from September 2010 to January 2017. Data were collected from patient registration books, charts and computer databases. Data were fitted to a parametric frailty model and survival was expressed as an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The median follow-up time of participants was 20 months (interquartile range: 12, 22) and 46 (10.20%) of patients died during this period. The incidence rate of mortality was 7.42 (95% CI 5.56-9.91)/100 person-years. Older age (AHR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08), inability to self-care (AHR = 13.71, 95% CI 5.46-34.40), co-morbidity (AHR = 5.74, 95% CI 2.19-15.08), low body mass index (AHR = 4.13, 95% CI 1.02-16.64), acute lung complications (AHR = 4.22, 95% CI 1.66-10.70) and lung consolidation at baseline (AHR = 5.27, 95% CI 1.06-26.18) were independent predictors of mortality. Most of the identified predictor factors of death in this study were considered to be avoidable if the TB programme had provided nutritional support for malnourished patients and ensured a close follow-up of the elderly, and patients with co-morbidities.

Effect of Temperature and Altitude Difference on Tuberculosis Notification: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Ecological factors are important indicators for tuberculosis (TB) notification. However, consolidation of evidence on the effect of altitude and temperature on TB notification rate has not yet been done. The aim of this review is to illustrate the effect of altitude and temperature on TB notification rate. METHODS: Electronic searches were undertaken from PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus databases. Hand searches of bibliographies of retrieved papers provided additional references. A review was performed using the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guideline. RESULTS: Nine articles from various geographic regions were included in the study. Five out of nine studies showed the effect of altitude and four articles identified temperature effects. Results showed that TB notification rates were lower at higher altitude and higher at a higher temperature. CONCLUSION: This review provides qualitative evidence that TB notification rates increase with temperature and decrease with altitude. The findings of this review will encourage policymakers and program managers to consider seasonality and altitude differences in the design and implementation of TB prevention and control strategies.

Factors associated with overweight and obesity among adults in northeast Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, the growing prevalence of overweight and obesity is an emerging public health problem in middle- and low-income countries such as Ethiopia. However, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Ethiopian adults who live in the major cities is not well documented. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the prevalence and factors associated with overweight and obesity among adults in Dessie town, northeast Ethiopia. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from March 15 to April 10, 2015. A total of 751 adults aged 18-64 years were included. Multistage followed by systematic random sampling method was used to select the study participants. Both bivariable and multivariable ordinal logistic regression were done. The proportional odds ratio (POR) with a 95% CI was reported to show the strength of association. A P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Of all participants, 19.9% (95% CI: 16.9%, 23.1%) were recorded to be overweight and 8.6% (95% CI: 6.6%, 10.9%) to be obese. The odds of being overnourished (overweight or obese) were higher among adults who had snack intake habit (POR =1.52; 95 CI: 1.04, 2.20), drank alcohol (POR =1.75; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.97), had higher wealth status (POR =2.29; 95% CI: 1.26, 4.19), and were married (POR =2.22; 95% CI: 1.49, 3.29) compared to their counterparts. CONCLUSION: Compared to the previous local reports, the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the study area is high; this appears to be an emerging problem in Ethiopia. Hence, there is a need to develop a control and prevention strategy on potentially modifiable risk factors of overweight and obesity.

Sociodemographic profiling of tuberculosis hotspots in Ethiopia, 2014-2017.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) notification rates vary across regions in Ethiopia and districts within the Amhara Region. The Amhara Region is one of the main TB hotspot regions in the country. In this study we identified the spatial distribution of TB and characterized the sociodemographic factors of spatial clusters in the Amhara Region. METHODS: An ecological spatial analysis of TB notifications from 2014 to 2017 was conducted to quantify the presence and location of spatial clusters of TB notifications at the district level within the Amhara Region. Global Moran's I statistics and local indicators of spatial association were used to explore the spatial clustering of TB notifications. Notifications from hotspots and low-risk districts were compared to identify significant sociodemographic factors using analysis of variance and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. The geographic information system and 'sp' packages of R software were used for spatial analysis. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2017 the average notification rate of all forms of TB in the Amhara Region was 107/100 000 population (range 18-614 per 100 000 population). District-level TB notification rates were positively spatially autocorrelated, with Moran's I value ranging from 0.207 to 0.276 (p=0.01). Hotspot TB clusters were found in the northwest and central part of the region. The proportion of migrants (F(3,124)=23.21, p<0.001, d=1.4) was found to be the most important factor associated with hotspot TB clustering. CONCLUSIONS: TB notification rates in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia over the past 4 y were significantly clustered. Distinguishing high-risk areas from low-risk areas and characterizing the proportion of migrants and other risk factors is important for targeted TB prevention and control in the region.

Community health extension program of Ethiopia, 2003-2018: successes and challenges toward universal coverage for primary healthcare services.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has been implementing a community health extension program (HEP) since 2003. We aimed to assess the successes and challenges of the HEP over time, and develop a framework that may assist the implementation of the program toward universal primary healthcare services. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and synthesis of the literature on the HEP in Ethiopia between 2003 and 2018. Literature search was accomplished in PubMed, Embase and Google scholar databases. Literature search strategies were developed using medical subject headings (MeSH) and text words related to the aim of the review. We used a three-stage screening process to select the publications. Data extraction was conducted by three reviewers using pre-prepared data extraction form. We conducted an interpretive (not aggregative) synthesis of studies. FINDINGS: The HEP enabled Ethiopia to achieve significant improvements in maternal and child health, communicable diseases, hygiene and sanitation, knowledge and health care seeking. The HEP has been a learning organization that adapts itself to community demands. The program is also dynamic enough to shift tasks between health centers and community. The community has been a key player in the successful implementation of the HEP. In spite of these successes, the program is currently facing challenges that remain to be addressed. These challenges are related to productivity and efficiency of health extension workers (HEWs); working and living conditions of HEWs; capacity of health posts; and, social determinants of health. These require a systemic approach that involves the wider health system, community, and sectors responsible for social determinants of health. We developed a framework that may assist in the implementation of the HEP. CONCLUSION: The HEP has enabled Ethiopia to achieve significant improvements. However, several challenges remain to be addressed. The framework can be utilized to improve community health programs toward universal coverage for primary healthcare services.

Spatial clustering and socio-demographic determinants of HIV infection in Ethiopia, 2015-2017.

BACKGROUND: Amhara Region has the largest at-risk population in Ethiopia, with widespread traditional practices that are likely to increase transmission of HIV. However, the identification and characterization of HIV hotspots within this region have not been undertaken. This study aimed to explore and describe the geographical pattern of HIV infection using notification data in Amhara Region, Ethiopia. METHODS: Data on HIV infection at the district level were obtained from the Amhara Regional Health Bureau. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to explore the association between HIV infection and socio-demographic variables in OpenBUGS. RESULTS: A total of 35 210 new HIV cases were reported during 2015-2017 in Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Metema and Mirab Armacho districts were found to be hotspots throughout the study period. There was a decrease in HIV infection in 2016 (odds ratio 0.77, 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.72-0.82) and 2017 (odds ratio 0.71, 95% CrI 0.60-0.76) as compared with HIV infection in 2015. HIV infection increased by 1.004 (95% CrI 1.001-1.008) and 1.47 (95% CrI 1.11-3.59) for a one-unit increase in the proportion of the population who had never attended school and migrants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified spatial clustering of HIV infection in Amhara Region, with a slight reduction in the annual infection rates from 2015 to 2017. The proportion of the population who were migrants or who had a low educational status was associated with a high risk of infection. Access to HIV counselling and the promotion of condom utilization, integrated with other health care services, targeting those with a lower level of education and seasonal migrants, are important strategies for the prevention of new HIV infections.

HIV Prevalence Among Tuberculosis Patients in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

HIV associated tuberculosis (TB) morbidity and mortality is a major concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the level of HIV infection among TB patients is vital for adequate response. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of HIV in TB patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and CINAHL databases. A meta-analysis with a random-effects model was performed. Potential sources of heterogeneity in the prevalence estimates were explored using meta-regression analysis. We identified 68 studies that collectively included 62,969 TB patients between 1990 and 2017. The overall estimate of HIV prevalence in TB patients was 31.8% (95% CI 27.8-36.1). There was substantial heterogeneity in the prevalence estimates in Southern, Central, Eastern, and Western sub-Saharan Africa regions (43.7, 41.3, 31.1 and 25.5%, respectively). We noted an apparent reduction in the estimate from 33.7% (95% CI 27.6-40.4) in the period before 2000 to 25.7% (95% CI 17.6-336.6) in the period after 2010. The Eastern and Southern sub-Saharan Africa region had higher prevalence [34.4% (95% CI 29.3-34.4)] than the Western and Central region [27.3% (95% CI 21.6-33.8)]. The prevalence of HIV in TB patients has declined over time in sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that this is due to strengthened HIV prevention and control response and enhanced TB/HIV collaborative activities. Countries and regions with high burdens of HIV and TB should strengthen and sustain efforts in order to achieve the goal of ending both HIV and TB epidemics in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Incidence and risk factors of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure among human immunodeficiency virus-infected children in Amhara regional state, Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors of treatment failure among HIV/AIDS-infected children who were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted from January 2010 to March 2016. A total of 824 children under the age of 15 who had started ART were included in the study. Data were collected from children's medical charts and ART registration logbook using a standard checklist. A Weibull regression model was used to identify the risk factors of treatment failure. Adjusted HRs (AHRs) with 95% CIs were used to declare statistical significance. RESULTS: The mean (±SD) age of the children was 6.4±3.6 years, with a median (IQR) follow-up of 30.5 (14.6-51.4) months. Sixty-three children (7.7%, 95% CI 5.8 to 9.5) developed treatment failure, 17 (27.0%) of whom were immunological and 46 (73.0%) were clinical failures. The incidence rate of treatment failure was 22.1/10 000 person-months. The cumulative probability of failure was 0.4, with 28 562.5 person-month observations. Lack of disclosure (AHR=4. 4, 95% CI 1.8 to 11.3), opportunistic infections during initiation of ART (AHR=2.3, 95% CI 1.3 to 4.1) and prolonged follow-up (AHR=0.06, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.18) were the main predictors of treatment failure. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that the incidence of treatment failure remains a significant public health concern in Ethiopia. Undisclosed HIV status to children, the presence of opportunistic infections during initiation of ART and prolonged follow-up were found to be the main predictors of treatment failure. Hence, early detection of treatment failure and further studies on viral monitoring need to be considered.

Factors associated with utilization of long-acting and permanent contraceptive methods among women who have decided not to have more children in Gondar city.

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that long acting family planning methods reduce population growth and improve maternal health, their utilization remains poor. Therefore, this study assessed the prevalence of long acting and permanent family planning method utilization and associated factors among women in reproductive age groups who have decided not to have more children in Gondar city, northwest Ethiopia. METHOD: An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October, 2015. Three hundred seventeen women who have decided not to have more children were selected consecutively into the study. A structured and pretested questionnaire was used to collect data. Both bivariate and multi-variable logistic regressions analyses were used to identify factors associated with utilization of long acting and permanent family planning methods. The multi-variable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate factors associated with the utilization of long acting and permanent family planning methods. The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with the corresponding 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to show the strength of associations, and variables with a P-value of <0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In this study, the overall prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive (LAPCM) method utilization was 34.7% (95% CI: 29.5-39.9). According to the multi-variable logistic regression analysis, utilization of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods was significantly associated with women who had secondary school, (AOR: 2279, 95% CI: 1.17, 4.44), college, and above education (AOR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.36, 6.24), history of previous utilization (AOR: 3.02, 95% CI: 1.69, 5.38), and information about LAPCM (AOR: 8.85, 95% CI: 2.04, 38.41). CONCLUSION: In this study the prevalence of long acting and permanent family planning method utilization among women who have decided not to have more children was high compared with previous studies conducted elsewhere. Advanced educational status, previous utilization of LAPCM, and information on LAPCM were significantly associated with the utilization of LAPCM. As a result, strengthening behavioral change communication channels to make information accessible is highly recommended.

Pertussis outbreak investigation of Mekdela district, South Wollo zone, Amhara region, North-West Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Pertussis is a highly contagious respiratory illness caused by Bordetella pertussis. It is one of the most common vaccine-preventable bacterial infections that affects all susceptible individuals, regardless of age. Investigation was done to verify the existence of an outbreak and to identify associated risk factors contributed for the occurrence of an outbreak in Tork and Warkaye villages of Mekdela district. METHODS: Unmatched community based case control and descriptive cross sectional investigation were conducted with one to two ratios. We used structured questionnaire to collect data from cases and controls. RESULTS: A total of 215 cases and eight deaths were identified with an overall attack rate of 1.3 per 1000 population. The mean age of the cases was 3.7 years which was ranged from 3 months to 45 years. The more affected groups were females. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk factor that remained independently statically significant associated with developing pertussis was presence of infected person in the family AOR (adjusted odds ratio): 5.859, (95% CI 2.526-13.589). But previously sick with pertussis AOR: 0.053, (95% CI 0.006-0.460) and receiving full dose of vaccine AOR: 0.256, (95% CI 0.080-0.818) were remained as protective factors from pertussis infection. CONCLUSIONS: The suspected pertussis outbreak was occurred in remote pocket villages/kebeles of Mekdela district. Routine immunization was not given regularly and functional refrigerators were not available in the health posts. Routine immunization services and treatment of infected patients with appropriate antibiotics should be intensified.

The prevalence of impaired fasting glucose and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus and associated risk factors among adults living in a rural Koladiba town, northwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is becoming a big public health challenge, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia. It is a manageable disease if early screening and follow up is made. However, as studies in Ethiopia are limited and unorganized, determining the magnitude of prediabetes and diabetes and identifying associated risk factors is quite essential. METHODS: A community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted from February to April 2015 among adults (aged ≥20 years) in a rural Koladiba town. A multistage sampling technique was used to select a total of 392 study participants. Data were collected after a fully informed written consent was obtained from each participant. Demographic, behavioral, and clinical data were collected using a well-structured questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to control the effect of confounders. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were computed to measure associations. A p value of <0.05 was considered as statistically significant. RESULTS: The prevalence of impaired fasting glucose and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus were 12% (95% CI 9-16) and 2.3% (95% CI 1.1-4), respectively, in Koladiba. Overweight (AOR: 4.257, 95% CI 1.345-13.476), obesity (AOR: 5.26, 95% CI 1.138-24.316), hypertriglyceridemia (AOR: 2.83, 95% CI 1.451-5.521), and systolic hypertension (AOR: 3.858, 95% CI 1.62-9.189) were found to be independently associated with impaired fasting glucose. Positive family history of diabetes also showed a marginal association with impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.057). Male sex (p = 0.012) and hypertriglyceridemia (p = 0.030) were associated with undiagnosed diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of impaired fasting glucose and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus are found to be significant. Obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, and systolic hypertension are independently associated with impaired fasting glucose among adults. We recommend that the community be aware of healthy life style, early screening, and maintain continuous follow up.

Spatial patterns of childhood diarrhea in Ethiopia: data from Ethiopian demographic and health surveys (2000, 2005, and 2011).

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhea is a major public health problem, especially in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Exploring the spatial pattern of childhood diarrhea is important to monitor and design effective intervention programs. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the spatial patterns of childhood diarrhea in Ethiopia over the past one decade. METHODS: A total of 29,358 under-five children were retrieved from three consecutive Ethiopian demographic and health surveys (2000, 2005, and 2011) and included into the study. Spatial cluster and autocorrelation analysis was done to explore the patterns of childhood diarrhea. RESULTS: Childhood diarrhea clustered spatially at a national level in all survey periods (Moran's I: 0.3830-1.3296, p < 0.05). Significant spatial clusters were found in different survey periods across the regions. The most likely spatial clusters were found in Southern Nations Nationalities and people, West Oromia, Gambella, Benshangul-Gumuz, and Somali regions. Childhood diarrhea also clustered at the border areas of Southern Nations Nationalities and People and Tigray, Central Somali and Western Oromia, Gambella and Amhara (West Gojam, Awi, Oromia, and Wag Himra) regions. In 2000, the most likely clusters were found in Southern Nations Nationalities and People, West Oromia, and Gambella regions (LLR = 55.37, p < 0.001); in 2005, at Southern Nations Nationalities and People (LLR: 45.69, p < 0.001); and in 2011, at Gambella, West Southern Nations Nationalities and People and Oromia, and Benshangul-Gumuz regions (LLR: 51.09, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this study, childhood diarrhea remains public health problem and had a spatial variation across the regions. Identifying the risk areas would help in designing effective interventions to reduce childhood diarrhea in these areas.