ASDAS-CRP and ASDAS-ESR cut-offs for disease activity states in axial spondyloarthritis - Are they interchangeable?

OBJECTIVE: Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score with C-reactive protein (ASDAS-CRP) is recommended over erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASDAS-ESR) to assess disease activity in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Although ASDAS-CRP and ASDAS-ESR are not interchangeable, the same disease activity cut-offs are used for both. We aimed to estimate optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs (1.3, 2.1 and 3.5) and investigate the potential improvement of level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states when applying these estimated cut-offs. METHODS: We used data from axSpA patients initiating a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor from nine European registries. ASDAS-ESR cut-offs were estimated using the Youden index. Level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states was compared against each other. RESULTS: In 3,664 patients, mean ASDAS-CRP was higher than ASDAS-ESR at both baseline (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) and aggregated follow-up at 6, 12, or 24 months (1.9 and 1.8, respectively). The estimated ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs were 1.4, 1.9 and 3.3. By applying these cut-offs, the proportion of discordance between disease activity states according to ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP decreased from 22.93% to 19.81% in baseline data but increased from 27.17% to 28.94% in follow-up data. CONCLUSION: We estimated the optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-off values. However, applying the estimated cut-offs did not increase the level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states to a relevant degree. Our findings did not provide evidence to reject the established cut-off values for ASDAS-ESR.

Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROs) and PRO Remission Rates in 12,262 Biologic-Naïve Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis Treated With Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors in Routine Care.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate patient-reported outcomes (PROs) after initiation of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) treatment in European real-world patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Further, to investigate PRO remission rates across treatment courses, registries, disease duration, sex, and age at disease onset. METHODS: Visual analog scale or numerical rating scale scores for pain, fatigue, patient global assessment (PtGA), and the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) from 12,262 patients with PsA initiating a TNFi in 13 registries were pooled. PRO remission rates (pain ≤ 1, fatigue ≤ 2, PtGA ≤ 2, and HAQ-DI ≤ 0.5) were calculated for patients still on the treatment. RESULTS: For the first TNFi, median pain score was reduced by approximately 50%, from 6 to 3, 3, and 2; as were fatigue scores, from 6 to 4, 4, and 3; PtGA scores, from 6 to 3, 3, and 2; and HAQ-DI scores, from 0.9 to 0.5, 0.5, and 0.4 at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Six-month Lund Efficacy Index (LUNDEX)-adjusted remission rates for pain, fatigue, PtGA, and HAQ-DI scores were 24%, 31%, 36%, and 43% (first TNFi); 14%, 19%, 23%, and 29% (second TNFi); and 9%, 14%, 17%, and 20% (third TNFi), respectively. For biologic-naïve patients with disease duration < 5 years, 6-month LUNDEX-adjusted remission rates for pain, fatigue, PtGA, and HAQ-DI scores were 22%, 28%, 33%, and 42%, respectively. Corresponding rates for patients with disease duration > 10 years were 27%, 32%, 41%, and 43%, respectively. Remission rates were 33%, 40%, 45%, and 56% for men and 17%, 23%, 24%, and 32% for women, respectively. For patients aged < 45 years at diagnosis, 6-month LUNDEX-adjusted remission rate for pain was 29% vs 18% for patients ≥ 45 years. CONCLUSION: In 12,262 biologic-naïve patients with PsA, 6 months of treatment with a TNFi reduced pain by approximately 50%. Marked differences in PRO remission rates across treatment courses, registries, disease duration, sex, and age at onset of disease were observed, emphasizing the potential influence of factors other than disease activity on PROs.

Predictors of DAPSA28 remission in patients with psoriatic arthritis initiating a first TNF inhibitor: results from 13 European registries.

OBJECTIVES: In bio-naïve patients with PsA initiating a TNF inhibitor (TNFi), we aimed to identify baseline predictors of Disease Activity index for PsA in 28 joints (DAPSA28) remission (primary objective) and DAPSA28 moderate response at 6 months, as well as drug retention at 12 months across 13 European registries. METHODS: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were retrieved and the three outcomes investigated per registry and in pooled data, using logistic regression analyses on multiply imputed data. In the pooled cohort, selected predictors that were either consistently positive or negative across all three outcomes were defined as common predictors. RESULTS: In the pooled cohort (n = 13 369), 6-month proportions of remission, moderate response and 12-month drug retention were 25%, 34% and 63% in patients with available data (n = 6954, n = 5275 and n = 13 369, respectively). Five common baseline predictors of remission, moderate response and 12-month drug retention were identified across all three outcomes. The odds ratios (95% CIs) for DAPSA28 remission were: age, per year: 0.97 (0.96-0.98); disease duration, years (<2 years as reference): 2-3 years: 1.20 (0.89-1.60), 4-9 years: 1.42 (1.09-1.84), ≥10 years: 1.66 (1.26-2.20); men vs women: 1.85 (1.54-2.23); CRP of >10 vs ≤10 mg/l: 1.52 (1.22-1.89) and 1 mm increase in patient fatigue score: 0.99 (0.98-0.99). CONCLUSION: Baseline predictors of remission, response and adherence to TNFi therapy were identified, of which five were common for all three outcomes, indicating that the predictors emerging from our pooled cohort may be considered generalizable from country level to disease level.

Occurrence and Prediction of Flare After Tapering of Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors in Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in clinical remission tapered tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapy according to a clinical guideline. Over a 2-year follow-up period, we aimed to investigate flare frequency, dose at which flare occurred, type of flare, and predictors thereof. METHODS: Patients in clinical remission (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index [BASDAI] < 40, physician global score < 40, and without disease activity the previous year) tapered TNFi to two-thirds the standard dose at baseline, half at week 16, one-third at week 32, and discontinued at week 48. Flares were defined as BASDAI flare (BASDAI ≥ 40 and change ≥ 20 since inclusion), and/or clinical flare (development of inflammatory back pain, musculoskeletal or extraarticular manifestations, and/or Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score [ASDAS] ≥ 0.9), and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) flare (≥ 2 new or worsened inflammatory lesions). RESULTS: Of 108 patients, 106 (99%) flared before 2-year follow-up: 29 patients (27%) at two-thirds standard dose, 21 (20%) at half dose, 29 (27%) at one-third dose, and 27 (25%) after discontinuation. Regarding type of flare, 105 (99%) had clinical flares, 25 (24%) had BASDAI flares, and 23 (29% of patients with MRI at flare available) had MRI flares. Forty-one patients (41%) fulfilled the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) definition of clinically important worsening (≥ 0.9 increase since baseline). Higher baseline physician global score was an independent predictor of flare after tapering to two-thirds (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.41, P = 0.01). Changes in clinical and/or imaging variables in the 16 weeks prior to tapering did not predict flare. CONCLUSION: Almost all (99%) patients with axSpA in clinical remission experienced flare during tapering to discontinuation, but in over half of these patients, flare did not occur before receiving one-third dose or less. Higher physician global score was an independent predictor of flare.

One-Third of European Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis Reach Pain Remission With Routine Care Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the distribution of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) initiating a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi), to assess the proportion reaching PRO "remission" across registries and treatment series, and to compare patients registered to fulfill the modified New York (mNY) criteria for ankylosing spondylitis (AS) vs patients with nonradiographic axSpA (nr-axSpA). METHODS: Fifteen European registries contributed PRO scores for pain, fatigue, patient global assessment (PtGA), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Bath AS Functional Index (BASFI), and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) from 19,498 patients with axSpA. Changes in PROs and PRO remission rates (definitions: ≤ 20 mm for pain, fatigue, PtGA, BASDAI, and BASFI; ≤ 0.5 for HAQ) were calculated at 6, 12, and 24 months of treatment. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in baseline characteristics and outcomes between registries were observed. In pooled data, 6 months after the start of a first TNFi, pain score was reduced by approximately 60% (median at baseline/6/12/24 months: 65/25/20/20 mm) in patients on treatment. Similar patterns were observed for fatigue (68/32/30/25 mm), PtGA (66/29/21/20 mm), BASDAI (58/26/21/19 mm), BASFI (46/20/16/16 mm), and HAQ (0.8/0.4/0.2/0.2). Patients with AS (n = 3281) had a slightly better response than patients with nr-axSpA (n = 993). The Lund Efficacy Index (LUNDEX)-adjusted remission rates at 6 months for pain/fatigue/PtGA/BASDAI/BASFI/HAQ were 39%/30%/38%/34%/35%/48% for the AS cohort and 30%/21%/26%/24%/33%/47% for the nr-axSpA cohort. Better PRO responses were seen with a first TNFi compared to a second and third TNFi. CONCLUSION: Patients with axSpA starting a TNFi achieved high PRO remission rates, most pronounced in those fulfilling the mNY criteria and for the first TNFi.

Flare during tapering of biological DMARDs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in routine care: characteristics and predictors.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of flare in a 2-year follow-up study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained clinical remission tapering towards withdrawal of biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs). METHODS: Sustained clinical remission was defined as Disease Activity Score for 28 joints (DAS28)-C reactive protein (CRP) ≤2.6 without radiographic progression for >1 year. bDMARDs were tapered according to a mandatory clinical guideline to two-thirds of standard dose at baseline, half of dose at week 16 and discontinuation at week 32. Prospective assessments for 2 years included clinical evaluation, conventional radiography, ultrasound and MRI for signs of inflammation and bone changes. Flare was defined as DAS28-CRP ≥2.6 with ∆DAS28-CRP ≥1.2 from baseline. Baseline predictors of flare were assessed by logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 142 included patients, 121 (85%) flared during follow-up of which 86% regained remission within 24 weeks after flare. Patients that flared were more often rheumatoid factor positive, had tried more bDMARDs and had higher baseline ultrasound synovitis sum scores than those not flaring. For patients on standard dose, predictors of flare within 16 weeks after reduction to two-thirds of standard dose were baseline MRI-osteitis (OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.33; p=0.014), gender (female) (OR 6.71; 95% CI 1.68 to 46.12; p=0.005) and disease duration (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11; p=0.020). Baseline predictors for flare within 2 years were ultrasound grey scale synovitis sum score (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.44; p=0.020) and number of previous bDMARDs (OR 4.07; 95% CI 1.35 to 24.72; p=0.007). CONCLUSION: The majority of real-world patients with RA tapering bDMARDs flared during tapering, with the majority regaining remission after stepwise dose increase. Demographic and imaging parameters (MR-osteitis/ultrasound greyscale synovitis) were independent predictors of immediate flare and flare overall and may be of importance for clinical decision-making in patients eligible for tapering.

Predictors of ASDAS-CRP inactive disease in axial spondyloarthritis during treatment with TNF-inhibitors: Data from the EuroSpA collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) initiating their first tumor necrosis factor alpha-inhibitor (TNFi), we aimed to identify common baseline predictors of Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS-CRP) inactive disease (primary objective) and clinically important improvement (CII) at 6 months, and drug retention at 12-months across 15 European registries. METHODS: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were collected. Outcomes were investigated per registry and in pooled data using logistic regression analyses on multiply imputed data. RESULTS: The consistency of baseline predictors in individual registries justified pooling the data. In the pooled dataset (n = 21,196), the 6-month rates for ASDAS inactive disease and ASDAS CII were 26% and 51%, and the 12-month drug retention rate 65% in patients with available data (n = 9,845, n = 6,948 and n = 21,196, respectively). Nine common baseline predictors of ASDAS inactive disease, ASDAS CII and 12-month drug retention were identified, and the odds ratios (95%-confidence interval) for ASDAS inactive disease were: age, per year: 0.97 (0.97-0.98), men vs. women: 1.88 (1.60-2.22), current vs. non-smoking: 0.76 (0.63-0.91), HLA-B27 positive vs. negative: 1.51 (1.20-1.91), TNF start year 2015-2018 vs. 2009-2014: 1.24 (1.06-1.45), CRP>10 vs. ≤10 mg/l: 1.49 (1.25-1.77), one unit increase in health assessment questionnaire (HAQ): 0.77 (0.58-1.03), one-millimeter (mm) increase in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) fatigue and spinal pain: 0.99 (0.99-1.00) and 0.99 (0.99-1.99), respectively CONCLUSION: Common baseline predictors of treatment response and adherence to TNFi could be identified across data from 15 European registries, indicating that they may be universal across different axSpA populations.

Tapering of TNF inhibitors in axial spondyloarthritis in routine care - 2-year clinical and MRI outcomes and predictors of successful tapering.

OBJECTIVES: In a 2-year follow-up study of patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in clinical remission who tapered TNF inhibitor (TNFi) treatment according to a clinical guideline, we aimed to investigate the proportion who successfully tapered/discontinued therapy and baseline predictors thereof. The proportion regaining clinical remission after flare and the progression on MRI/radiography were also assessed. METHODS: One-hundred-and-nine patients (78 [72%]/31 [28%] receiving standard and reduced dose, respectively) in clinical remission (BASDAI < 40, physician global score < 40) and no signs of disease activity the previous year tapered TNFi as follows: to two-thirds of standard dose at baseline, half at week 16, one-third at week 32 and discontinuation at week 48. Patients experiencing clinical, BASDAI or MRI flare (predefined criteria) stopped tapering and escalated to previous dose. Prediction analyses were performed by multivariable regression. RESULTS: One hundred and six patients (97%) completed 2 years' follow-up; 55 patients (52%) had successfully tapered: 23 (22%) receiving two-thirds, 15 (14%) half, 16 (15%) one-third dose and 1 (1%) discontinued. In patients at standard dose at baseline (n = 78), lower physician global score was the only independent predictor of successful tapering (odds ratio [OR] = 0.79 [95% CI: 0.64, 0.93]; P = 0.003). In the entire patient group lower physician global score (OR = 0.86 [0.75, 0.98]; P = 0.017), lower Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada (SPARCC) Sacroiliac Joint Erosion score (OR = 0.78 [0.57, 0.98]; P = 0.029) and current smoker (OR = 3.28 [1.15, 10.57]; P = 0.026) were independent predictors of successful tapering. At 2 years, 97% of patients were in clinical remission. Minimal changes in imaging findings were observed. CONCLUSION: After 2 years following a clinical guideline, 52% of patients with axSpA in clinical remission had successfully tapered TNFi, only 1% discontinued. Baseline physician global score was an independent predictor of successful tapering.

Real-World Six- and Twelve-Month Drug Retention, Remission, and Response Rates of Secukinumab in 2,017 Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis in Thirteen European Countries.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of real-life studies on interleukin-17 (IL-17) inhibition in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We assessed real-life 6- and 12-month effectiveness (i.e., retention, remission, low disease activity [LDA], and response rates) of the IL-17 inhibitor secukinumab in PsA patients overall and across 1) number of prior biologic/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs), 2) years since diagnosis, and 3) European registries. METHODS: Thirteen quality registries in rheumatology participating in the European Spondyloarthritis Research Collaboration Network provided longitudinal, observational data collected as part of routine care for secondary use. Data were pooled and analyzed with Kaplan-Meier plots, log rank tests, Cox regression, and multiple linear and logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 2,017 PsA patients started treatment with secukinumab between 2015 and 2018. Overall secukinumab retention rates were 86% and 76% after 6 and 12 months, respectively. Crude (LUNDEX adjusted) 6-month remission/LDA (LDA including remission) rates for the 28-joint Disease Activity Index for Psoriatic Arthritis, the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the C-reactive protein level, and the Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) were 13%/46% (11%/39%), 36%/55% (30%/46%), and 13%/56% (11%/47%), and 12-month rates were 11%/46% (7%/31%), 39%/56% (26%/38%), and 16%/62% (10%/41%), respectively. Clinical Disease Activity Index remission/LDA rates were similar to the SDAI rates. Six-month American College of Rheumatology 20%/50%/70% improvement criteria responses were 34%/19%/11% (29%/16%/9%); 12-month rates were 37%/21%/11% (24%/14%/7%). Secukinumab effectiveness was significantly better for b/tsDMARD-naive patients, similar across time since diagnosis (<2/2-4/>4 years), and varied significantly across the European registries. CONCLUSION: In this large real-world study on secukinumab treatment in PsA, 6- and 12-month effectiveness was comparable to that in previous observational studies of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors. Retention, remission, LDA, and response rates were significantly better for b/tsDMARD-naive patients, were independent of time since diagnosis, and varied significantly across the European countries.

Comparative effectiveness of two adalimumab biosimilars in 1318 real-world patients with inflammatory rheumatic disease mandated to switch from originator adalimumab: nationwide observational study emulating a randomised clinical trial.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, a nationwide mandatory switch from originator to biosimilar adalimumab was conducted in Denmark. The available biosimilar was GP2017 (Hyrimoz) in Eastern regions and SB5 (Imraldi) in Western regions. We aimed to assess the comparative effectiveness of GP2017 versus SB5 in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)/psoriatic arthritis (PsA)/axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA). METHODS: Observational cohort study based on the DANBIO registry with geographical cluster pseudo-randomisation, analysed by emulating a randomised clinical trial. Main outcome was adjusted 1-year treatment retention (Cox regression). Furthermore, 6 months' remission rates (logistic regression), reasons for withdrawal and back-switching to originator were investigated (overall and stratified by indication). RESULTS: Overall, of 1570 eligible patients, 1318 switched and were included (467 RA/321 PsA/530 AxSpA); 623 (47%) switched to GP2017, 695 (53%) to SB5. Baseline characteristics of the two clusters were largely similar, but some differences in registration practice were observed. The combined 1-year retention rate for the two biosimilars was 89.5%. Compared with SB5, estimated risk of withdrawal for GP2017 was lower (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.86) and 6 months' remission rate was higher (OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.25 to 2.37). Stratified analyses gave similar results (statistically significant for RA). During 1 year, 8.5% and 12.9% withdrew GP2017 and SB5, respectively (primarily lack of effect and adverse events), of whom 48 patients (3.6%) back-switched. CONCLUSION: This head-to-head comparison of GP2017 versus SB5 following a mandatory switch from the originator indicated differences in effectiveness in routine care. This may reflect a true difference, but other explanations, for example, differences in excipients, differences between clusters and residual confounding cannot be ruled out.

Doppler ultrasound predicts successful discontinuation of biological DMARDs in rheumatoid arthritis patients in clinical remission.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of ultrasound to predict successful tapering and successful discontinuation of biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) at the 2-year follow-up in RA patients in sustained remission. METHODS: Patients in sustained remission (DAS28-CRP ≤ 2.6) and with no radiographic progression the previous year tapered bDMARDs according to a standardized regime. A total of 119 of these patients were included in this ultrasound substudy. At baseline, clinical assessment, MRI, X-ray and ultrasound of 24 joints were performed. Ultrasound-detected synovitis was defined and scored 0-3 using the OMERACT scoring system at the joint level for both grey-scale and Doppler activity. Sum scores for each ultrasound modality were calculated for 24 joints at the patient level. The final state of treatment was assessed after 2 years. The predictive value of ultrasound measures for successful tapering and discontinuation at the 2-year follow-up was assessed via logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Negative IgM-RF [odds ratio (OR) = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10-0.85; P = 0.024] and lower Doppler sum score of 24 joints (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.87; P = 0.014) were independent predictors for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up. The predictive value of the Doppler sum score was independent of MRI findings. Previous numbers of bDMARDs were predictive of successful tapering (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.91; P = 0.018), whereas ultrasound was not. Clinical parameters were not predictive of successful tapering/discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Doppler sum score was an independent predictor for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up-the odds for achieving successful discontinuation decreased by 56% per one-unit increase in Doppler sum score. Ultrasound could not predict successful tapering.

Predictors of joint damage progression and stringent remission in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis in clinical remission.

OBJECTIVES: To study if clinical, radiographic and MRI markers can predict MRI and radiographic damage progression and achievement of stringent remission in patients with established RA in clinical remission followed by a targeted treatment strategy. METHODS: RA patients (DAS28-CRP <3.2, no swollen joints) receiving conventional synthetic DMARDs were randomized to conventional or MRI-targeted treat-to-target strategies with predefined algorithmic treatment escalations. Potentially predictive baseline variables were tested in multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In the 171 patients included, baseline MRI osteitis independently predicted progression in MRI erosion [odds ratio (OR) 1.13 (95% CI 1.06, 1.22)], joint space narrowing [OR 1.15 (95% CI 1.07, 1.24)] and combined damage [OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.13, 1.37)], while tenosynovitis independently predicted MRI erosion progression [OR 1.13 (95% CI 1.03, 1.25)]. A predictor of radiographic erosion progression was age, while gender predicted progression in joint space narrowing. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy predicted stringent remission across all remission definitions: Clinical Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.94 (95% CI 1.25, 7.52), Simplified Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.50 (95% CI 1.01, 6.66), ACR/EULAR Boolean remission OR 5.47 (95% CI 2.33, 14.13). Similarly, low tender joint count and low patient visual analogue scale pain and global independently predicted achievement of more stringent remission. CONCLUSION: Baseline MRI osteitis and tenosynovitis were independent predictors of 2 year MRI damage progression in RA patients in clinical remission, while independent predictors of radiographic damage progression were age and gender. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy, low scores of patient-reported outcomes and low tender joint count predicted achievement of stringent remission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov), NCT01656278.

Drug retention, inactive disease and response rates in 1860 patients with axial spondyloarthritis initiating secukinumab treatment: routine care data from 13 registries in the EuroSpA collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: To explore 6-month and 12-month secukinumab effectiveness in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) overall, as well as across (1) number of previous biologic/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs), (2) time since diagnosis and (3) different European registries. METHODS: Real-life data from 13 European registries participating in the European Spondyloarthritis Research Collaboration Network were pooled. Kaplan-Meier with log-rank test, Cox regression, χ² and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess 6-month and 12-month secukinumab retention, inactive disease/low-disease-activity states (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) <2/<4, Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) <1.3/<2.1) and response rates (BASDAI50, Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society (ASAS) 20/40, ASDAS clinically important improvement (ASDAS-CII) and ASDAS major improvement (ASDAS-MI)). RESULTS: We included 1860 patients initiating secukinumab as part of routine care. Overall 6-month/12-month secukinumab retention rates were 82%/72%, with significant (p<0.001) differences between the registries (6-month: 70-93%, 12-month: 53-86%) and across number of previous b/tsDMARDs (b/tsDMARD-naïve: 90%/73%, 1 prior b/tsDMARD: 83%/73%, ≥2 prior b/tsDMARDs: 78%/66%). Overall 6-month/12-month BASDAI<4 were observed in 51%/51%, ASDAS<1.3 in 9%/11%, BASDAI50 in 53%/47%, ASAS40 in 28%/22%, ASDAS-CII in 49%/46% and ASDAS-MI in 25%/26% of the patients. All rates differed significantly across number of previous b/tsDMARDs, were numerically higher for b/tsDMARD-naïve patients and varied significantly across registries. Overall, time since diagnosis was not associated with secukinumab effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of 1860 patients from 13 European countries, we present the first comprehensive real-life data on effectiveness of secukinumab in patients with axSpA. Overall, secukinumab retention rates after 6 and 12 months of treatment were high. Secukinumab effectiveness was consistently better for bionaïve patients, independent of time since diagnosis and differed across the European countries.

Probabilistic approach for assessing cancer risk due to benzo[a]pyrene in barbecued meat: Informing advice for population groups.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of meat prepared by barbecuing is associated with risk of cancer due to formation of carcinogenic compounds including benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Assessment of a population's risk of disease and people's individual probability of disease given specific consumer attributes may direct food safety strategies to where impact on public health is largest. The aim of this study was to propose a model that estimates the risk of cancer caused by exposure to BaP from barbecued meat in Denmark, and to estimate the probability of developing cancer in subgroups of the population given different barbecuing frequencies. METHODS: We developed probabilistic models applying two dimensional Monte Carlo simulation to take into account the variation in exposure given age and sex and in the individuals' sensitivity to develop cancer after exposure to BaP, and the uncertainty in the dose response model. We used the Danish dietary consumption survey, monitoring data of chemical concentrations, data on consumer behavior of frequency of barbecuing, and animal dose response data. FINDINGS: We estimated an average extra lifetime risk of cancer due to BaP from barbecued meat of 6.8 × 10-5 (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 × 10-7 - 7.0 × 10-4) in the Danish population. This corresponds to approximately one to 4,074 extra cancer cases over a lifetime, reflecting wide uncertainty. The impact per barbecuing event on the risk of cancer for men and women of low body weight was higher compared to higher bodyweight. However, the difference due to sex and bodyweight between subgroups are dwarfed by the uncertainty. INTERPRETATION: This study proposes a model that can be applied to other substances and routes of exposure, and allows for deriving the change in risk following a specific change in behaviour. The presented methodology can serve as a valuable tool for risk management, allowing for the formulation of behaviour advice targeted to specific sub-groups in the population.