Changes of Land Use and Land Cover with the Diversity of Fishes, Aquatic Plants, and Bird's Species at Wetland Ecosystem.

Bangladesh is rich in wetland biodiversity with aquatic plants, fishes, and birds. Mohanganj Upazila is known as the capital of lower Bangladesh. The present study focuses on the changes of land use and land cover (LULC) with a diversity of species that are being least concerned (LC), vulnerable (VU), and endangered (EN). Over the last two decades, the wetland species of Mohanganj were gradually declined. Our results showed that 19 fish, 4 aquatic plants, and 7 bird species were LC in 2015. Among the fish and aquatic plant species, 6 fish species (Wallago attu, Ompok pabda, Channa punctate, Chitala chitala, Salmostoma phulo, and Corica soborna) and 2 aquatic plant species (Nymphaea nouchali and Nymphaea lotus) were VU during the dry and rainy season of 2017 and 2019, respectively. In the dry season of 2019, 4 fish species (W. attu, O. pabda, C. punctate, and Ch. chitala), 2 aquatic plant species (N. nouchali and N. lotus), and 7 bird species (Anas platyrhynchos, Ardeola grayii, Gyps bengalensis, Alcedo atthis, Phalacrocorax fuscicollis, Porphyrio porphyria, and Larus ridibundus) were EN. Among the species, W. attu, N. nouchaii, G. bengalensis, P. porphyria, and L. ridibundus were extremely endangered categories. Changes in LULC, the establishment of settlements for the increasing population, indiscriminate use of pesticides, environmental pollutions, and climate change are the potential reasons for declining trends of wetland biodiversity. Stern actions on land use policy, expansion of organic agriculture, bioremediation of industrial effluents, and adoption of sustainable environmental policies should be taken by the Government of Bangladesh for immediate conservation of wetland biodiversity.

Changes in parasite traits, rather than intensity, affect the dynamics of infection under external perturbation.

Understanding the mechanisms that generate complex host-parasite interactions, and how they contribute to variation between and within hosts, is important for predicting risk of infection and transmission, and for developing more effective interventions based on parasite properties. We used the T. retortaeformis (TR)-rabbit system and developed a state-space mathematical framework to capture the variation in intensity of infection and egg shedding in hosts infected weekly, then treated with an anthelminthic and subsequently re-challenged following the same infection regime. Experimental infections indicate that parasite intensity accumulates more slowly in the post-anthelminthic phase but reaches similar maximum numbers. By contrast, parasite EPG (eggs per gram of feces) shed from rabbits in the post-treatment phase is lower and less variable through time. Inference based on EPG alone suggests a decline in parasite intensity over time. Using a state-space model and incorporating all sources of cross-sectional and longitudinal data, we show that while parasite intensity remains relatively constant in both experimental phases, shedding of eggs into the environment is increasingly limited through changes in parasite growth. We suggest that host immunity directly modulates both the accumulation and the growth of the parasite, and indirectly affects transmission by limiting parasite length and thus fecundity. This study provides a better understanding of how within-host trophic interactions influence different components of a helminth population. It also suggests that heterogeneity in parasite traits should be addressed more carefully when examining and managing helminth infections in the absence of some critical data on parasite dynamics.

Can antibodies against flies alter malaria transmission in birds by changing vector behavior?

Transmission of insect-borne diseases is shaped by the interactions among parasites, vectors, and hosts. Any factor that alters movement of infected vectors from infected to uninfeced hosts will in turn alter pathogen spread. In this paper, we study one such pathogen-vector-host system, avian malaria in pigeons transmitted by fly ectoparasites, where both two-way and three-way interactions play a key role in shaping disease spread. Bird immune defenses against flies can decrease malaria prevalence by reducing fly residence time on infected birds or increase disease prevalence by enhancing fly movement and thus infection transmission. We develop a mathematical model that illustrates how these changes in vector behavior influence pathogen transmission and show that malaria prevalence is maximized at an intermediate level of defense avoidance by the flies. Understanding how host immune defenses indirectly alter disease transmission by influencing vector behavior has implications for reducing the transmission of human malaria and other vectored pathogens.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of insect pest population under viral infection.

The interrelationship between pathogen infection and host mobility is of great importance for successful spread of disease in spatial pest population. As spread of infection depends on horizontal transmission of pathogen, there are numerous factors like susceptibility, latent period, host movement that influence overall effectiveness of the control policy. Initiation of new infection cycle depends on density of infected inoculum in the site. So, spatial movement of infected hosts during the course of infection influence the dynamics. Also, infected individuals are more vulnerable to predators and hence production of virus particles in the site depends on predation to some extent. We derive a four dimensional delayed reaction-diffusion model in one spatial dimension and compute the minimum travelling speed of transmission of infection. We show that the minimum speed is sensitive to several parameters of the system. For example, the minimum speed decreases only with increase in delay in lysis process, but otherwise it increases with increase in force of infection, diffusivity of infectives or per capita virus production. A concluding discussion with numerical simulation is presented in the end.

Influenza pandemic waves under various mitigation strategies with 2009 H1N1 as a case study.

A significant feature of influenza pandemics is multiple waves of morbidity and mortality over a few months or years. The size of these successive waves depends on intervention strategies including antivirals and vaccination, as well as the effects of immunity gained from previous infection. However, the global vaccine manufacturing capacity is limited. Also, antiviral stockpiles are costly and thus, are limited to very few countries. The combined effect of antivirals and vaccination in successive waves of a pandemic has not been quantified. The effect of acquired immunity from vaccination and previous infection has also not been characterized. In times of a pandemic threat countries must consider the effects of a limited vaccine, limited antiviral use and the effects of prior immunity so as to adopt a pandemic strategy that will best aid the population. We developed a mathematical model describing the first and second waves of an influenza pandemic including drug therapy, vaccination and acquired immunity. The first wave model includes the use of antiviral drugs under different treatment profiles. In the second wave model the effects of antivirals, vaccination and immunity gained from the first wave are considered. The models are used to characterize the severity of infection in a population under different drug therapy and vaccination strategies, as well as school closure, so that public health policies regarding future influenza pandemics are better informed.

Optimal control of vertically transmitted disease: an integrated approach.

We study the dynamics of a disease under administration of a vaccine and antiviral drug, where the disease transmits directly from the parents to the offspring (vertical transmission) and also through contact with infective individuals (horizontal transmission). While vaccination to those susceptible reduces the horizontal transmission, administration of the antiviral drug to infected individuals lessens the chance of vertical transmission. Thus the vaccine and antiviral drug play different roles in controlling the disease, which has both vertical and horizontal transmission. We develop a 3D model with Susceptible-Infected-Recovered under vaccination to the susceptible and antiviral treatment to the infected and consider a control theoretic approach using the Pontryagin maximum principle to analyse the cost-effectiveness of the control process. Our results demonstrate that a mixed intervention strategy of vaccination and antiviral drug in a proper ratio is the most effective way to control the disease. We show that cost-effectiveness of both intervention strategies intimately depends on disease-related parameters, such as force of infection, probability of being infected to offspring from infected mothers, loss of immunity or reinfection and also on cost of treatment.