Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process.

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures.

Bioretention Design Modifications Increase the Simulated Capture of Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Trace Organic Compounds.

Stormwater rapidly moves trace organic contaminants (TrOCs) from the built environment to the aquatic environment. Bioretention cells reduce loadings of some TrOCs, but they struggle with hydrophilic compounds. Herein, we assessed the potential to enhance TrOC removal via changes in bioretention system design by simulating the fate of seven high-priority stormwater TrOCs (e.g., PFOA, 6PPD-quinone, PAHs) with log KOC values between -1.5 and 6.74 in a bioretention cell. We evaluated eight design and management interventions for three illustrative use cases representing a highway, a residential area, and an airport. We suggest two metrics of performance: mass advected to the sewer network, which poses an acute risk to aquatic ecosystems, and total mass advected from the system, which poses a longer-term risk for persistent compounds. The optimized designs for each use case reduced effluent loadings of all but the most polar compound (PFOA) to <5% of influent mass. Our results suggest that having the largest possible system area allowed bioretention systems to provide benefits during larger events, which improved performance for all compounds. To improve performance for the most hydrophilic TrOCs, an amendment like biochar was necessary; field-scale research is needed to confirm this result. Our results showed that changing the design of bioretention systems can allow them to effectively capture TrOCs with a wide range of physicochemical properties, protecting human health and aquatic species from chemical impacts.

Identification of Neighborhood Hotspots via the Cumulative Hazard Index: Results From a Community-Partnered Low-Cost Sensor Deployment.

The Strathcona neighborhood in Vancouver is particularly vulnerable to environmental injustice due to its close proximity to the Port of Vancouver, and a high proportion of Indigenous and low-income households. Furthermore, local sources of air pollutants (e.g., roadways) can contribute to small-scale variations within communities. The aim of this study was to assess hyperlocal air quality patterns (intra-neighborhood variability) and compare them to average Vancouver concentrations (inter-neighborhood variability) to identify possible disparities in air pollution exposure for the Strathcona community. Between April and August 2022, 11 low-cost sensors (LCS) were deployed within the neighborhood to measure PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations. The collected 15-min concentrations were down-averaged to daily concentrations and compared to greater Vancouver region concentrations to quantify the exposures faced by the community relative to the rest of the region. Concentrations were also estimated at every 25 m grid within the neighborhood to quantify the distribution of air pollution within the community. Using population information from census data, cumulative hazard indices (CHIs) were computed for every dissemination block. We found that although PM2.5 concentrations in the neighborhood were lower than regional Vancouver averages, daily NO2 concentrations and summer O3 concentrations were consistently higher. Additionally, although CHIs varied daily, we found that CHIs were consistently higher in areas with high commercial activity. As such, estimating CHI for dissemination blocks was useful in identifying hotspots and potential areas of concern within the neighborhood. This information can collectively assist the community in their advocacy efforts.

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development.

This Perspective evaluates recent progress in modeling nature-society systems to inform sustainable development. We argue that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. For each of four stages of modeling practice-defining purpose, selecting components, analyzing interactions, and assessing interventions-we highlight examples of dynamical modeling methods and advances in their application that have improved understanding and begun to inform action. Because many of these methods and associated advances have focused on particular sectors and places, their potential to inform key open questions in the field of sustainability science is often underappreciated. We discuss how application of such methods helps researchers interested in harnessing insights into specific sectors and locations to address human well-being, focus on sustainability-relevant timescales, and attend to power differentials among actors. In parallel, application of these modeling methods is helping to advance theory of nature-society systems by enhancing the uptake and utility of frameworks, clarifying key concepts through more rigorous definitions, and informing development of archetypes that can assist hypothesis development and testing. We conclude by suggesting ways to further leverage emerging modeling methods in the context of sustainability science.

Bioretention Cells Provide a 10-Fold Reduction in 6PPD-Quinone Mass Loadings to Receiving Waters: Evidence from a Field Experiment and Modeling.

Road runoff to streams and rivers exposes aquatic organisms to complex mixtures of chemical contaminants. In particular, the tire-derived chemical 6PPD-quinone (N-(1,3-dimethylbutyl)-N'-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine-quinone) is acutely toxic to several species of salmonids, which are critical to fisheries, ecosystems, and Indigenous cultures. We therefore urgently require interventions that can reduce loadings of 6PPD-quinone to salmonid habitats. Herein, we conducted a spike and recovery experiment on a full-scale, mature bioretention cell to assess the efficacy of stormwater green infrastructure technologies in reducing 6PPD-quinone loadings to receiving waters. We then interpreted and extended the results of our experiment using an improved version of the "Bioretention Blues" contaminant transport and fate model. Overall, our results showed that stormwater bioretention systems can effectively mitigate >∼90% of 6PPD-quinone loadings to streams under most "typical" storm conditions (i.e., < 2-year return period). We therefore recommend that stormwater managers and other environmental stewards redirect stormwater away from receiving waters and into engineered green infrastructure systems such as bioretention cells.

Emissions and fate of organophosphate esters in outdoor urban environments.

Cities are drivers of the global economy, containing products and industries that emit many chemicals. Here, we use the Multimedia Urban Model (MUM) to estimate atmospheric emissions and fate of organophosphate esters (OPEs) from 19 global mega or major cities, finding that they collectively emitted ~81,000 kg yr-1 of ∑10OPEs in 2018. Typically, polar "mobile" compounds tend to partition to and be advected by water, while non-polar "bioaccumulative" chemicals do not. Depending on the built environment and climate of the city considered, the same compound behaves like either a mobile or a bioaccumulative chemical. Cities with large impervious surface areas, such as Kolkata, mobilize even bioaccumulative contaminants to aquatic ecosystems. By contrast, cities with large areas of vegetation fix and transform contaminants, reducing loadings to aquatic ecosystems. Our results therefore suggest that urban design choices could support policies aimed at reducing chemical releases to the broader environment without increasing exposure for urban residents.

Investigating the dynamics of methylmercury bioaccumulation in the Beaufort Sea shelf food web: a modeling perspective.

High levels of methylmercury (MeHg) have been reported in Arctic marine biota, posing health risks to wildlife and human beings. Although MeHg concentrations of some Arctic species have been monitored for decades, the key environmental and ecological factors driving temporal trends of MeHg are largely unclear. We develop an ecosystem-based MeHg bioaccumulation model for the Beaufort Sea shelf (BSS) using the Ecotracer module of Ecopath with Ecosim, and apply the model to explore how MeHg toxicokinetics and food web trophodynamics affect bioaccumulation in the BSS food web. We show that a food web model with complex trophodynamics and relatively simple MeHg model parametrization can capture the observed biomagnification pattern of the BSS. While both benthic and pelagic production are important for transferring MeHg to fish and marine mammals, simulations suggest that benthic organisms are primarily responsible for driving the high trophic magnification factor in the BSS. We illustrate ways of combining empirical observations and modelling experiments to generate hypotheses about factors affecting food web bioaccumulation, including the MeHg elimination rate, trophodynamics, and species migration behavior. The results indicate that population dynamics rather than MeHg elimination may determine population-wide concentrations for fish and lower trophic level organisms, and cause large differences in concentrations between species at similar trophic levels. This research presents a new tool and lays the groundwork for future research to assess the pathways of global environmental changes in MeHg bioaccumulation in Arctic ecosystems in the past and the future.

Selecting Data Analytic and Modeling Methods to Support Air Pollution and Environmental Justice Investigations: A Critical Review and Guidance Framework.

Given the serious adverse health effects associated with many pollutants, and the inequitable distribution of these effects between socioeconomic groups, air pollution is often a focus of environmental justice (EJ) research. However, EJ analyses that aim to illuminate whether and how air pollution hazards are inequitably distributed may present a unique set of requirements for estimating pollutant concentrations compared to other air quality applications. Here, we perform a scoping review of the range of data analytic and modeling methods applied in past studies of air pollution and environmental injustice and develop a guidance framework for selecting between them given the purpose of analysis, users, and resources available. We include proxy, monitor-based, statistical, and process-based methods. Upon critically synthesizing the literature, we identify four main dimensions to inform method selection: accuracy, interpretability, spatiotemporal features of the method, and usability of the method. We illustrate the guidance framework with case studies from the literature. Future research in this area includes an exploration of increasing data availability, advanced statistical methods, and the importance of science-based policy.

Cannabis Cultivation Facilities: A Review of Their Air Quality Impacts from the Occupational to Community Scale.

This review addresses knowledge gaps in cannabis cultivation facility (CCF) air emissions by synthesizing the peer-reviewed and gray literature. Focus areas include compounds emitted, air quality indoors and outdoors, odor assessment, and the potential health effects of emitted compounds. Studies suggest that ß-myrcene is a tracer candidate for CCF biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Furthermore, ß-myrcene, d-limonene, terpinolene, and α-pinene are often reported in air samples collected in and around CCF facilities. The BVOC emission strength per dry weight of plant is higher than most conventional agriculture crops. Nevertheless, reported total CCF BVOC emissions are lower compared with VOCs from other industries. Common descriptors of odors coming from CCFs include "skunky", "herbal", and "pungent". However, there are few peer-reviewed studies addressing the odor impacts of CCFs outdoors. Atmospheric modeling has been limited to back trajectory models of tracers and ozone impact assessment. Health effects of CCFs are mostly related to odor annoyance or occupational hazards. We identify 16 opportunities for future studies, including an emissions database by strain and stage of life (growing cycle) and odor-related setback guidelines. Exploration and implementation of key suggestions presented in this work may help regulators and the industry reduce the environmental footprint of CCF facilities.

Framing climate change as a human health issue: enough to tip the scale in climate policy?

Almost four decades of climate science have not yet led to transformative policy change at the pace and scale required to confront the climate crisis. Colleagues in the planetary health community attribute much potential to framing climate change as human health issue in order to create greater impact on policy makers. In this Personal View, we discuss the promise and limitations of this approach by drawing on insights from political science and public policy with regards to the complexity of these contentious policy issues. We argue that we, as academics, have a moral obligation to embrace an active role in the knowledge-to-action (KTA) sphere and that we would be well advised to expand our KTA approach to include evidence-based strategies, such as lobbying or civil resistance. As scientists, we can no longer wait to embrace the realpolitik insights of political science to move our evidence into policy action.

Repair Failures Call for New Policies to Tackle Leaky Natural Gas Distribution Systems.

Methane leaks in natural gas systems are low-hanging fruit for near-term, locally driven climate policy. Recent work suggests this emissions source is larger than previously believed and that repairing a small number of high emitters can cost-effectively reduce system-wide leakage. How successful are these repairs on the ground? Here, we assess the effectiveness of repair policies in the Massachusetts distribution system. Our analysis leverages state-wide utility data, on-site empirical measurements, stakeholder interviews, and document and legal analysis. We use these mixed methods to investigate the rate of repair failure, where a gas utility identifies and fixes a leak, but on-site emissions are not eliminated. We find that repair failures are relatively common, yet they are repeatedly neglected in policy. By not accounting for repair failures, policy may overestimate the effectiveness of distribution system repairs in meeting local greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results also underscore the importance of data transparency for monitoring and verifying subnational climate policies.

Exploring Scientists' Values by Analyzing How They Frame Nature and Uncertainty.

Several scholars have proposed that values embedded in science are a central reason why more research does not necessarily resolve scientific controversies around complex environmental issues. In the Capital Regional District, British Columbia, Canada, scientists have positioned themselves for and against the construction of a wastewater treatment plant in a debate framed as purely technical. This study explores the link between the scientists' positions in the debate and the way they, in their scientific publications, portray nature and environmental risks. We performed a qualitative content analysis of peer-reviewed publications by scientists who have publicly taken opposing positions in the controversy. We found that scientists against treatment predominantly frame nature as tolerant, up to a limit, to disturbances and potential risks, and they seem to embrace a view of science as capable of reducing uncertainties. In contrast, scientists in favor of treatment predominantly portray nature as fragile, particularly toward human-mobilized environmental risks and they commonly present scientific uncertainty as worrisome based on potentially harmful consequences. Our study suggests that value-laden perspectives impact scientists' positions even in a seemingly technical controversy.

Mercury Benefits of Climate Policy in China: Addressing the Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention Simultaneously.

National commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environmental objectives, such as those of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. We assess how mercury emissions and deposition reductions from national climate policy in China under the Paris Agreement could contribute to the country's commitments under the Minamata Convention. We examine emissions under climate policy scenarios developed using a computable general equilibrium model of China's economy, end-of-pipe control scenarios that meet China's commitments under the Minamata Convention, and these policies in combination, and evaluate deposition using a global atmospheric transport model. We find climate policy in China can provide mercury benefits when implemented with Minamata policy, achieving in the year 2030 approximately 5% additional reduction in mercury emissions and deposition in China when climate policy achieves a 5% reduction per year in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions 9.7 Gt in 2030). This corresponds to 63 Mg additional mercury emissions reductions in 2030 when implemented with Minamata Convention policy, compared to Minamata policy implemented alone. Climate policy provides emissions reductions in sectors not considered under the Minamata Convention, such as residential combustion. This changes the combination of sectors that contribute to emissions reductions.

Global and Local Impacts of Delayed Mercury Mitigation Efforts.

Mercury (Hg) is emitted to air by natural and anthropogenic sources, transports and deposits globally, and bioaccumulates to toxic levels in food webs. It is addressed under the global 2017 Minamata Convention, for which periodic effectiveness evaluation is required. Previous analyses have estimated the impact of different regulatory strategies for future mercury deposition. However, analyses using atmospheric models traditionally hold legacy emissions (recycling of previously deposited Hg) constant, and do not account for their possible future growth. Here, using an integrated modeling approach, we investigate how delays in implementing emissions reductions and the associated growing legacy reservoir affect deposition fluxes to ecosystems in different global regions. Assuming nearly constant yearly emissions relative to 2010, each 5-year delay in peak emissions defers by additional extra ca. 4 years the return to year 2010 global deposition. On a global average, each 5-year delay leads to a 14% decrease in policy impacts on local-scale Hg deposition. We also investigate the response of fish contamination in remote lakes to delayed action. We quantify the consequences of delay for limiting the Hg burden of future generations and show that traditional analyses of policy impacts provide best-case estimates.

Understanding factors influencing the detection of mercury policies in modelled Laurentian Great Lakes wet deposition.

We used chemical transport modelling to better understand the extent to which policy-related anthropogenic mercury emissions changes (a policy signal) can be statistically detected in wet deposition measurements in the Great Lakes region on the subdecadal scale, given sources of noise. In our modelling experiment, we consider hypothetical regional (North American) and global (rest of the world) policy changes, consistent with existing policy efforts (Δglobal = -18%; Δregional = -30%) that divide an eight-year period. The magnitude of statistically significant (p < 0.1) pre- and post-policy period wet deposition differences, holding all else constant except for the policy change, ranges from -0.3 to -2.0% for the regional policy and -0.8 to -2.7% for the global policy. We then introduce sources of noise-trends and variability in factors that are exogenous to the policy action-and evaluate the extent to which the policy signals can still be detected. For instance, technology-related variability in emissions magnitude and speciation can shift the magnitude of differences between periods, in some cases dampening the policy effect. We have found that the interannual variability in meteorology has the largest effect of the sources of noise considered, driving deposition differences between periods to ±20%, exceeding the magnitude of the policy signal. However, our simulations suggest that gaseous elemental mercury concentration may be more robust to this meteorological variability in this region, and a stronger indicator of local/regional emissions changes. These results highlight the potential challenges of detecting statistically significant policy-related changes in Great Lakes wet deposition within the subdecadal scale.

Costs of IQ Loss from Leaded Aviation Gasoline Emissions.

In the United States, general aviation piston-driven aircraft are now the largest source of lead emitted to the atmosphere. Elevated lead concentrations impair children's IQ and can lead to lower earnings potentials. This study is the first assessment of the nationwide annual costs of IQ losses from aircraft lead emissions. We develop a general aviation emissions inventory for the continental United States and model its impact on atmospheric concentrations using the community multi-scale air quality model (CMAQ). We use these concentrations to quantify the impacts of annual aviation lead emissions on the U.S. population using two methods: through static estimates of cohort-wide IQ deficits and through dynamic economy-wide effects using a computational general equilibrium model. We also examine the sensitivity of these damage estimates to different background lead concentrations, showing the impact of lead controls and regulations on marginal costs. We find that aircraft-attributable lead contributes to $1.06 billion 2006 USD ($0.01-$11.6) in annual damages from lifetime earnings reductions, and that dynamic economy-wide methods result in damage estimates that are 54% larger. Because the marginal costs of lead are dependent on background concentration, the costs of piston-driven aircraft lead emissions are expected to increase over time as regulations on other emissions sources are tightened.

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States.

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action.

Impacts of the Minamata convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia.

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 µg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

SO-MUM: a coupled atmospheric transport and multimedia model used to predict intraurban-scale PCB and PBDE emissions and fate.

A spatially resolved, dynamic version of the Multimedia Urban Model (MUM) and the boundary layer forecast and air pollution transport model BLFMAPS were coupled to build Spatially Oriented MUM (SO-MUM), to estimate emissions and fate of POPs in an urban area on a 5 × 5 km(2) cell resolution. SO-MUM was used to back-calculate emissions from spatially resolved measured air concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs in Toronto, Canada. Estimated emissions of Σ(88)PCBs were 230 (40-480) kg y(-1), 280 (50-580) g y(-1) km(-2), or 90 (16-190) mg y(-1) capita(-1), and Σ(26)PBDEs were 28 (6-63) kg y(-1), 34 (7-77) g y(-1) km(-2), or 11 (2-25) mg y(-1) capita(-1). A mass inventory of penta- and octa-BDEs in Toronto was estimated to be 200 tonnes (90-1000 tonnes) or 80 (40-400) g capita(-1). Using this estimate and that of 440 (280-800) tonnes of PCBs, estimated emissions of Σ(88)PCBs and Σ(26)PBDEs per mass of chemical inventory in Toronto were 0.5 (0.05-1.6) and 0.1 (0.01-0.7) g y(-1) kg(-1), respectively. The results suggest annual emission rates of 0.04% and 0.01% from the mass inventories with downtown accounting for 30% and 16% of Toronto's chemical inventory and emissions of PCBs and PBDEs, respectively. Since total PBDE emissions are a function of mass inventory, which is proportional to building volume, we conclude that building volume can be used as a proxy to predict emissions. Per mass inventory emission rates were negatively related to vapor pressure within a compound class, but not consistently when considering all compound congeners.