The effect of COVID-19 on self-reported safety incidents in aviation: An examination of the heterogeneous effects using causal machine learning.

INTRODUCTION: Disruptions to aviation operations occur daily on a micro-level with negligible impacts beyond the inconvenience of rebooking and changing aircrew schedules. The unprecedented disruption in global aviation due to COVID-19 highlighted a need to evaluate emergent safety issues rapidly. METHOD: This paper uses causal machine learning to examine the heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on reported aircraft incursions/excursions. The analysis utilized self report data from NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System collected from 2018 to 2020. The report attributes include self identified group characteristics and expert categorization of factors and outcomes. The analysis identified attributes and subgroup characteristics that were most sensitive to COVID-19 in inducing incursions/excursions. The method included the generalized random forest and difference-in-difference techniques to explore causal effects. RESULTS: The analysis indicates first officers are more prone to experiencing incursion/excursion events during the pandemic. In addition, events categorized with the human factors confusion, distraction, and the causal factor fatigue increased incursion/excursion events. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Understanding the attributes associated with the likelihood of incursion/excursion events provides policymakers and aviation organizations insights to improve prevention mechanisms for future pandemics or extended periods of reduced aviation operations.

Temperature responses vary between riffle beetles from contrasting aquatic environments.

Organisms living in environmentally stable ecosystems are hypothesized to exhibit narrow environmental tolerance ranges; however, previous experiments testing this prediction with invertebrates in spring habitats are equivocal. Here we examined the effects of elevated temperatures on four riffle beetle species (family: Elmidae) native to central and west Texas, USA. Two of these, Heterelmis comalensis and Heterelmis cf. glabra are known to occupy habitats immediately adjacent to spring openings and are thought to have stenothermal tolerance profiles. The other two, Heterelmis vulnerata and Microcylloepus pusillus are surface stream species with more cosmopolitan distributions and are assumed to be less sensitive to variation in environmental conditions. We examined performance and survival of elmids in response to increasing temperatures using dynamic and static assays. Additionally, changes in metabolic rate in response to thermal stress were assessed for all four species. Our results indicated that spring-associated H. comalensis is most sensitive while the more cosmopolitan elmid M. pusillus is least sensitive to thermal stress. However, there were differences in temperature tolerances among the two spring-associated species: H. comalensis had relatively narrow thermal tolerance in comparison to H. cf. glabra. This could be due to differences in the climatic and hydrological conditions in the geographical regions which the respective riffle beetle populations reside. However, despite these differences, H. comalensis and H. cf. glabra showed a dramatic increase in their metabolic rates with increasing temperatures indicating that these species are indeed spring specialists and likely have a stenothermal profile.