The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa.

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), apparent temperature, wind, Heat Index, Humidex, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), heatwave, high temperature and hot climate on human health, human comfort, heat stress, heat rashes, and heat-related morbidity and mortality. A total of 5, 735 articles were initially identified, which were reduced to 100 based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The review discovered that temperatures up to 60°C have been recorded in the region and that extreme heat has many adverse effects on human health, such as worsening mental health in low-income adults, increasing the likelihood of miscarriage, and adverse effects on well-being and safety, psychological behaviour, efficiency, and social comfort of outdoor workers who spend long hours performing manual labour. Extreme heat raises the risk of death from heat-related disease, necessitating preventative measures such as adaptation methods to mitigate the adverse effects on vulnerable populations during hot weather. This study highlights the social inequalities in heat exposure and adverse health outcomes.

Challenges in the real world use of classification accuracy metrics: From recall and precision to the Matthews correlation coefficient.

The accuracy of a classification is fundamental to its interpretation, use and ultimately decision making. Unfortunately, the apparent accuracy assessed can differ greatly from the true accuracy. Mis-estimation of classification accuracy metrics and associated mis-interpretations are often due to variations in prevalence and the use of an imperfect reference standard. The fundamental issues underlying the problems associated with variations in prevalence and reference standard quality are revisited here for binary classifications with particular attention focused on the use of the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). A key attribute claimed of the MCC is that a high value can only be attained when the classification performed well on both classes in a binary classification. However, it is shown here that the apparent magnitude of a set of popular accuracy metrics used in fields such as computer science medicine and environmental science (Recall, Precision, Specificity, Negative Predictive Value, J, F1, likelihood ratios and MCC) and one key attribute (prevalence) were all influenced greatly by variations in prevalence and use of an imperfect reference standard. Simulations using realistic values for data quality in applications such as remote sensing showed each metric varied over the range of possible prevalence and at differing levels of reference standard quality. The direction and magnitude of accuracy metric mis-estimation were a function of prevalence and the size and nature of the imperfections in the reference standard. It was evident that the apparent MCC could be substantially under- or over-estimated. Additionally, a high apparent MCC arose from an unquestionably poor classification. As with some other metrics of accuracy, the utility of the MCC may be overstated and apparent values need to be interpreted with caution. Apparent accuracy and prevalence values can be mis-leading and calls for the issues to be recognised and addressed should be heeded.

The Spectral Species Concept in Living Color.

Biodiversity monitoring is an almost inconceivable challenge at the scale of the entire Earth. The current (and soon to be flown) generation of spaceborne and airborne optical sensors (i.e., imaging spectrometers) can collect detailed information at unprecedented spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. These new data streams are preceded by a revolution in modeling and analytics that can utilize the richness of these datasets to measure a wide range of plant traits, community composition, and ecosystem functions. At the heart of this framework for monitoring plant biodiversity is the idea of remotely identifying species by making use of the 'spectral species' concept. In theory, the spectral species concept can be defined as a species characterized by a unique spectral signature and thus remotely detectable within pixel units of a spectral image. In reality, depending on spatial resolution, pixels may contain several species which renders species-specific assignment of spectral information more challenging. The aim of this paper is to review the spectral species concept and relate it to underlying ecological principles, while also discussing the complexities, challenges and opportunities to apply this concept given current and future scientific advances in remote sensing.

Employing the theory of planned behaviour to design an e-cigarette education resource for use in secondary schools.

BACKGROUND: An extended version of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to inform the design of a framework for an educational resource around e-cigarette use in young people. METHODS: A sequential exploratory design was employed. In Phase 1, elicited behavioural, normative and control beliefs, via 7 focus groups with 51 participants, aged 11-16 years, identified salient beliefs around e-cigarette use. These were used to construct a questionnaire administered to 1511 young people aged 11-16 years, which determined predictors of e-cigarette use and ever use. In Phase 2, sociodemographic variables, e-cigarette knowledge, access, use, marketing and purchasing of e-cigarettes and smoking behaviour were also gathered. The composite findings from Phase 1 and 2 informed the design of a post primary educational resource in Phase 3 around e-cigarette use. RESULTS: Current e-cigarette use was 4%, with almost 23% reporting ever use, suggesting current use is stable but experimentation may be increasing in this cohort. Sociodemographic variables, knowledge of e-cigarettes, smoking behaviour and TPB variables (direct and indirect measures of attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control) accounted for 17% of the variance in current e-cigarette use, with higher intentions to use e-cigarettes within the next month, having the strongest impact on use (p < 0.001), followed by self-efficacy (p = 0.016). Sociodemographic and TPB variables accounted for 65% of the variance in intentions to use e-cigarettes in the next month; current e-cigarette use (p < 0.001), more positive attitudes (p < 0.001), stronger social influence (p < 0.001), higher self-efficacy (p < 0.001), higher control beliefs (p < 0.001) and greater motivation to use e-cigarettes (p < 0.001) were the main predictors of intentions. Phases 1 and 2 informed the mapping of key predictors of intentions and use of e-cigarettes onto the Theoretical Domains Framework, which identified appropriate intervention functions and behaviour change techniques. CONCLUSIONS: This paper is the first to bridge the theoretical-practice gap in an area of significant public health importance through the development of a framework for a novel theory driven school-based educational resource aimed at reducing experimentation and uptake of e-cigarette use in young people.

rasterdiv-An Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: To the origin and back.

Ecosystem heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a key ecological indicator of several ecological functions, diversity patterns and change, metapopulation dynamics, population connectivity or gene flow.In this paper, we present a new R package-rasterdiv-to calculate heterogeneity indices based on remotely sensed data. We also provide an ecological application at the landscape scale and demonstrate its power in revealing potentially hidden heterogeneity patterns.The rasterdiv package allows calculating multiple indices, robustly rooted in Information Theory, and based on reproducible open-source algorithms.

Seasonal SUHI Analysis Using Local Climate Zone Classification: A Case Study of Wuhan, China.

The surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect poses a significant threat to the urban environment and public health. This paper utilized the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification and land surface temperature (LST) data to analyze the seasonal dynamics of SUHI in Wuhan based on the Google Earth Engine platform. In addition, the SUHI intensity derived from the traditional urban-rural dichotomy was also calculated for comparison. Seasonal SUHI analysis showed that (1) both LCZ classification and the urban-rural dichotomy confirmed that Wuhan's SHUI effect was the strongest in summer, followed by spring, autumn and winter; (2) the maximum SUHI intensity derived from LCZ classification reached 6.53 °C, which indicated that the SUHI effect was very significant in Wuhan; (3) LCZ 8 (i.e., large low-rise) had the maximum LST value and LCZ G (i.e., water) had the minimum LST value in all seasons; (4) the LST values of compact high-rise/midrise/low-rise (i.e., LCZ 1-3) were higher than those of open high-rise/midrise/low-rise (i.e., LCZ 4-6) in all seasons, which indicated that building density had a positive correlation with LST; (5) the LST values of dense trees (i.e., LCZ A) were less than those of scattered trees (i.e., LCZ B) in all seasons, which indicated that vegetation density had a negative correlation with LST. This paper provides some useful information for urban planning and contributes to the healthy and sustainable development of Wuhan.

The Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC): Protocol for a multi-national, individual participant data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: More than 30 million adults are released from incarceration globally each year. Many experience complex physical and mental health problems, and are at markedly increased risk of preventable mortality. Despite this, evidence regarding the global epidemiology of mortality following release from incarceration is insufficient to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. Many previous studies have suffered from inadequate power and poor precision, and even large studies have limited capacity to disaggregate data by specific causes of death, sub-populations or time since release to answer questions of clinical and public health relevance. OBJECTIVES: To comprehensively document the incidence, timing, causes and risk factors for mortality in adults released from prison. METHODS: We created the Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC), a multi-disciplinary collaboration representing 29 cohorts of adults who have experienced incarceration from 11 countries. Findings across cohorts will be analysed using a two-step, individual participant data meta-analysis methodology. RESULTS: The combined sample includes 1,337,993 individuals (89% male), with 75,795 deaths recorded over 9,191,393 person-years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The consortium represents an important advancement in the field, bringing international attention to this problem. It will provide internationally relevant evidence to guide policymakers and clinicians in reducing preventable deaths in this marginalized population. KEY WORDS: Mortality; incarceration; prison; release; individual participant data meta-analysis; consortium; cohort.

Active restoration accelerates the carbon recovery of human-modified tropical forests.

More than half of all tropical forests are degraded by human impacts, leaving them threatened with conversion to agricultural plantations and risking substantial biodiversity and carbon losses. Restoration could accelerate recovery of aboveground carbon density (ACD), but adoption of restoration is constrained by cost and uncertainties over effectiveness. We report a long-term comparison of ACD recovery rates between naturally regenerating and actively restored logged tropical forests. Restoration enhanced decadal ACD recovery by more than 50%, from 2.9 to 4.4 megagrams per hectare per year. This magnitude of response, coupled with modal values of restoration costs globally, would require higher carbon prices to justify investment in restoration. However, carbon prices required to fulfill the 2016 Paris climate agreement [$40 to $80 (USD) per tonne carbon dioxide equivalent] would provide an economic justification for tropical forest restoration.

Antenatal care service delivery and factors affecting effective tetanus vaccine coverage in low- and middle-income countries: Results of the Maternal Immunisation and Antenatal Care Situational analysis (MIACSA) project.

OBJECTIVES: To map the integration of existing maternal tetanus immunization programmes within antenatal care (ANC) services for pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to identify and understand the challenges, barriers and facilitators associated with high performance maternal vaccine service delivery. DESIGN: A mixed methods, cross sectional study with four data collection phases including a desk review, online survey, telephone and face-to-face interviews and in country visits was undertaken between 2016 and 2018. Associations of different service delivery process components with protection at birth (PAB) and with country groups were established. PAB was defined as the proportion of neonates protected at birth against neonatal tetanus. Regression analysis and structural equation modelling was used to assess associations of different variables with maternal tetanus immunization coverage. Latent class analysis (LCA), was used to group country performance for maternal immunization, and to address the problem of multicollinearity. SETTING: LMICs. RESULTS: The majority of LMICs had a policy on recommended number of ANC visits, however most were yet to implement the WHO guidelines recommending eight ANC contacts. Countries that recommended > 4 ANC contacts were more likely to have high PAB > 90%. Passive disease surveillance was the most common form of disease surveillance performed but the maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality indicators recorded differed between countries. The presence of user fees for antenatal care and maternal immunization was significantly associated with lower PAB (<90%). CONCLUSIONS: Recommendations include implementing the current WHO ANC guideline to facilitate increased opportunities for vaccination during each pregnancy. Improved utilisation of ANC services by increasing the demand side by increasing the quality of services, reducing any associated costs and supporting user fee exemptions, or the supply side can also enhance utilisation of ANC services which are positioned as an ideal platform for delivery of maternal vaccines.

Vaccine implementation factors affecting maternal tetanus immunization in low- and middle-income countries: Results of the Maternal Immunization and Antenatal Care Situational Analysis (MIACSA) project.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the characteristics of existing maternal tetanus immunization programmes for pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to identify and understand the challenges, barriers and facilitators associated with maternal vaccine service delivery that may impact the introduction and implementation of new maternal vaccines in the future. DESIGN: A mixed methods, cross sectional study with four data collection phases including a desk review, online survey, telephone and face-to-face interviews and in country visits. SETTING: LMICs. RESULTS: The majority of countries (84/95; 88%) had a maternal tetanus immunization policy. Countries with high protection at birth (PAB) were more likely to report tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine (TTCV) coverage targets > 90%. Less than half the countries included in this study had a TTCV coverage target of > 90%. Procurement and distribution of TTCV was nearly always the responsibility of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), however planning and management of maternal immunization was often shared between EPI and Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) programmes. Receipt of TTCV at the same time as the antenatal care visit correlated with high PAB. Most countries (81/95; 85%) had an immunization safety surveillance system in place although only 11% could differentiate an adverse event following immunization (AEFI) in pregnant and non-pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: Recommendations arising from the MIACSA project to strengthen existing services currently delivering maternal tetanus immunization in LMICs include establishing and maintaining vaccination targets, clearly defining responsibilities and fostering collaborations between EPI and MNCH, investing in strengthening the health workforce, improving the design and use of existing record keeping for immunization, adjusting current AEFI reporting to differentiate pregnant women and endeavoring to integrate the provision of TTCV within ANC services where appropriate.

Chronic hepatitis B infection and the risk of gestational diabetes: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: An estimated two billion people worldwide live with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Many of these are women of reproductive age. Studies that have examined pregnancy outcomes in women living with HBV have reported conflicting results in relation to the incidence of gestational diabetes (GDM). The aim of this study is to examine if gestational diabetes is more common in women with chronic HBV residing in a non-Asian country. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Victoria, Australia. POPULATION: All singleton births between 2009 and 2017. METHODS: Poisson regression was performed to determine whether gestational diabetes is more common in women with HBV than in women without HBV taking into account other risk factors such as maternal age, body mass index (BMI), parity and country of birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Gestational diabetes diagnosis in women with chronic HBV infection. RESULTS: For women with HBV, the unadjusted incidence risk ratio for GDM was 1.75 (95% CI 1.6-1.9). After adjusting for region of birth, BMI, parity, age and smoking, the adjusted incidence risk ratio was 1.2 (95% CI 1.1-1.3). The highest incidence (37.1%) of GDM was in women with HBV and a BMI of >40. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study confirm an association between HBV and GDM. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: HBV is associated with GDM with an incidence risk ratio for GDM of 1.75 (95% CI 1.6-1.9).

The barriers to linkage and retention in care for women living with HIV in an high income setting where they comprise a minority group.

Women comprise a minority population of individuals living with HIV in Australia, and are often poorly represented in research and clinical trials so their needs remain largely unknown. Data suggests that they are diagnosed later than men and start antiretroviral therapy at a lower CD4 cell count. This raises the question whether there are sex specific barriers to linkage and retention in care. This study analyzed 484 surveys received from clinicians collecting demographic, virological, and reproductive health data along with perceived barriers to linkage and retention in care. Most women (67%) were estimated to have been linked into care within 28 days of diagnosis. For women who were not linked into care for more than 28 days, the most commonly reason cited was fear of disclosure to others, followed by fear of disclosure to their partner. The main reasons given for non-retention in care were related to transport, carer responsibilities, financial pressure, health beliefs and concern about stigma or disclosure.

Modalities and accuracy of diagnosis of external ventricular drainage-related infections: a prospective multicentre observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Device infection is a major complication of placement external ventricular drains (EVD). Diagnostic features are often masked by underlying disease or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) contamination by blood. We aim to assess which diagnostic modalities are applied for EVD-related infection (ERI) diagnosis and evaluate their accuracy. METHODS: This observational prospective study included 187 adult patients with an EVD. Modalities of clinical diagnosis of ERI diagnosed by treating physicians on clinical grounds and blood and CSF analysis (clinically diagnosed ERI (CD-ERI)) were assessed prospectively. Additionally, the diagnostic accuracy of clinical and laboratory parameters for the diagnosis of culture proven ERI (CP-ERI) was evaluated, using data of the study patients and including a retrospective cohort of 39 patients with CP-ERI. RESULTS: Thirty-one CD-ERIs were diagnosed in the prospective cohort. Most physicians used CSF analysis to establish the diagnosis. ROC analysis revealed an AUC of 0.575 (p = 0.0047) for the number of positive SIRS criteria and AUC of 0.5420 (p = 0.11) for the number of pathological neurological signs for diagnosis of CP-ERI. Diagnostic accuracy of laboratory values was AUC 0.596 (p = 0.0006) for serum white blood cell count (WBCC), AUC 0.550 (p = 0.2489) for serum C-reactive protein, AUC 0.644 (p < 0.0001) for CSF WBCC and AUC 0.690 for CSF WBC/red blood cell count ratio (both p < 0.0001). Neither a temporal trend in potential predictors of CP-ERI nor a correlation between clinical diagnosis and proven CSF infection was found. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians base their diagnosis of ERI mostly on CSF analysis and occurrence of fever, leading to over-diagnosis. The accuracy of the clinical diagnosis is low. Commonly used clinical and laboratory diagnostic criteria have a low sensitivity and specificity for ERI.

Lifetime Measurements of Excited States in

Lifetimes of the first excited 2^{+} and 4^{+} states in the extremely neutron-deficient nuclide ^{172}Pt have been measured for the first time using the recoil-distance Doppler shift and recoil-decay tagging techniques. An unusually low value of the ratio B(E2:4_{1}^{+}→2_{1}^{+})/B(E2:2_{1}^{+}→0_{gs}^{+})=0.55(19) was found, similar to a handful of other such anomalous cases observed in the entire Segré chart. The observation adds to a cluster of a few extremely neutron-deficient nuclides of the heavy transition metals with neutron numbers N≈90-94 featuring the effect. No theoretical model calculations reported to date have been able to explain the anomalously low B(E2:4_{1}^{+}→2_{1}^{+})/B(E2:2_{1}^{+}→0_{gs}^{+}) ratios observed in these cases. Such low values cannot, e.g., be explained within the framework of the geometrical collective model or by algebraic approaches within the interacting boson model framework. It is proposed that the group of B(E2:4_{1}^{+}→2_{1}^{+})/B(E2:2_{1}^{+}→0_{gs}^{+}) ratios in the extremely neutron-deficient even-even W, Os, and Pt nuclei around neutron numbers N≈90-94 reveal a quantum phase transition from a seniority-conserving structure to a collective regime as a function of neutron number. Although a system governed by seniority symmetry is the only theoretical framework for which such an effect may naturally occur, the phenomenon is highly unexpected for these nuclei that are not situated near closed shells.

Down syndrome is accompanied by significantly reduced cortical grey-white matter tissue contrast.

Increased cortical thickness (CT) has been reported in Down syndrome (DS) during childhood and adolescence, but it remains unclear, which components of the neural architecture underpin these increases and if CT remains altered in adults. Among other factors, differences in CT measures could be driven by reduced tissue contrast between grey and white matter (GWC), which has been reported in neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease. Using structural magnetic resonance imaging, we therefore examined differences in CT and GWC in 26 adults with DS, and 23 controls, to (1) examine between-group differences in CT in adulthood, (2) establish whether DS is associated with significant reductions in GWC, and (3) determine the influence of GWC variability on between-group differences in CT. As hypothesized, we observed that DS was accompanied by wide-spread increases in CT, and significantly reduced GWC in several large clusters distributed across the cortex. Out of all vertices with a significant between-group difference in CT, 38.50% also displayed a significant reduction in GWC. This percentage of overlap was also statistically significant and extremely unlikely to be obtained by chance (p = .0002). Differences in GWC thus seem to explain some, although not all, of the differences in CT observed in DS. In addition, our study is the first to extend previous in vivo reports of altered CT in DS during childhood and adolescence to older adults, implying that the regional pattern of neuroanatomical differences associated with DS remains stable across the lifespan.

Host-specific differences in the contribution of an ESBL IncI1 plasmid to intestinal colonization by Escherichia coli O104:H4.

Objectives: To assess stability and contribution of a large ESBL-encoding IncI1 plasmid to intestinal colonization by Escherichia coli O104:H4 in two different mammalian hosts. Methods: Specific-pathogen-free 3-4-day-old New Zealand White rabbits and conventionally reared 6-week-old weaned lambs were orally infected with WT E. coli O104:H4 or the ESBL-plasmid-cured derivative, and the recovery of bacteria in intestinal homogenates and faeces monitored over time. Results: Carriage of the ESBL plasmid had differing impacts on E. coli O104:H4 colonization of the two experimental hosts. The plasmid-cured strain was recovered at significantly higher levels than WT during late-stage colonization of rabbits, but at lower levels than WT in sheep. Regardless of the animal host, the ESBL plasmid was stably maintained in virtually all in vivo passaged bacteria that were examined. Conclusions: These findings suggest that carriage of ESBL plasmids has distinct effects on the host bacterium depending upon the animal species it encounters and demonstrates that, as for E. coli O157:H7, ruminants could represent a potential transmission reservoir.

Vaccine decision-making begins in pregnancy: Correlation between vaccine concerns, intentions and maternal vaccination with subsequent childhood vaccine uptake.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal and childhood vaccine decision-making begins prenatally. Amongst pregnant Australian women we aimed to ascertain vaccine information received, maternal immunisation uptake and attitudes and concerns regarding childhood vaccination. We also aimed to determine any correlation between a) intentions and concerns regarding childhood vaccination, (b) concerns about pregnancy vaccination, (c) socioeconomic status (SES) and (d) uptake of influenza and pertussis vaccines during pregnancy and routine vaccines during childhood. METHODS: Women attending public antenatal clinics were recruited in three Australian states. Surveys were completed on iPads. Follow-up phone surveys were done three to six months post delivery, and infant vaccination status obtained via the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR). RESULTS: Between October 2015 and March 2016, 975 (82%) of 1184 mothers consented and 406 (42%) agreed to a follow up survey, post delivery. First-time mothers (445; 49%) had significantly more vaccine concerns in pregnancy and only 73% had made a decision about childhood vaccination compared to 89% of mothers with existing children (p-value<0.001). 66% of mothers reported receiving enough information during pregnancy on childhood vaccination. In the post delivery survey, 46% and 82% of mothers reported receiving pregnancy influenza and pertussis vaccines respectively. The mother's degree of vaccine hesitancy and two attitudinal factors were correlated with vaccine uptake post delivery. There was no association between reported maternal vaccine uptake or SES and childhood vaccine uptake. CONCLUSION: First time mothers are more vaccine hesitant and undecided about childhood vaccination, and only two thirds of all mothers believed they received enough information during pregnancy. New interventions to improve both education and communication on childhood and maternal vaccines, delivered by midwives and obstetricians in the Australian public hospital system, may reduce vaccine hesitancy for all mothers in pregnancy and post delivery, particularly first-time mothers.

Personality disorder and alcohol treatment outcome: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BackgroundPersonality disorders commonly coexist with alcohol use disorders (AUDs), but there is conflicting evidence on their association with treatment outcomes.AimsTo determine the size and direction of the association between personality disorder and the outcome of treatment for AUD.MethodWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials and longitudinal studies.ResultsPersonality disorders were associated with more alcohol-related impairment at baseline and less retention in treatment. However, during follow-up people with a personality disorder showed a similar amount of improvement in alcohol outcomes to that of people without such disorder. Synthesis of evidence was hampered by variable outcome reporting and a low quality of evidence overall.ConclusionsCurrent evidence suggests the pessimism about treatment outcomes for this group of patients may be unfounded. However, there is an urgent need for more consistent and better quality reporting of outcomes in future studies in this area.

The role of novelty seeking as a predictor of substance use disorder outcomes in early adulthood.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There has been a great deal of evidence showing that high novelty seeking (NS) is a risk factor for the development of substance use disorders (SUDs). However, the possible causal role of NS in SUDs is unconfirmed. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between NS at age 16 and SUDs from ages 18 to 35 years, net of a series of covariate factors. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of a birth cohort. SETTING: Christchurch, New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: General community sample with sample sizes ranging from n = 1011 (age 21) to n = 962 (age 35). MEASUREMENTS: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to derive DSM-IV diagnoses of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis and other illicit SUDs at four time intervals from ages 18 to 35. NS was measured at age 16 using the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire. FINDINGS: An increase in NS was associated with increases in the prevalence of all four SUDs at age 18-35. Following adjustment for a broad range of covariate factors, estimated effect sizes (odds ratios) were reducing in magnitude, but remained moderate to large. Adjusted odds ratios of SUDs for the highest NS quartile compared to with the lowest were 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5, 2.7] for alcohol; 1.8 (95% CI = 1.3, 2.7) for nicotine; 3.6 (95% CI = 2.4, 5.6) for cannabis and 5.1 (95% CI = 2.9, 9.2) for other illicit substances. CONCLUSIONS: The association between high novelty seeking and substance use disorders is not explained by common underlying individual factors and environmental exposures. This is consistent with the view that novelty seeking may play a causal role in the development of substance use disorders.