Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway.

Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diverse topography and bioclimates. In this study, we demonstrate this by evaluating the links between changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in wheat, barley, and potato yields at the county-level during 1980-2019 in Norway, a Nordic country with a range of climates across a relatively small spatial scale. The results show that the impacts of climate variables on yield vary widely by county, and that for some crops, the strength and direction of the link depends on underlying local bioclimate. In addition, our analysis demonstrates the need for some counties to focus on weather changes during specific crucial months corresponding with certain crop growth stages. Furthermore, due to the local climatic conditions and varying projected climate changes, different production opportunities are likely to occur in each county.

Landscape-scale drivers of pollinator communities may depend on land-use configuration.

Research into pollinators in managed landscapes has recently combined approaches of pollination ecology and landscape ecology, because key stressors are likely to interact across wide areas. While laboratory and field experiments are valuable for furthering understanding, studies are required to investigate the interacting drivers of pollinator health and diversity across a broader range of landscapes and a wider array of taxa. Here, we use a network of 96 study landscapes in six topographically diverse regions of Britain, to test the combined importance of honeybee density, insecticide loadings, floral resource availability and habitat diversity to pollinator communities. We also explore the interactions between these drivers and the cover and proximity of semi-natural habitat. We found that among our four drivers, only honeybee density was positively related to wild pollinator abundance and diversity, and the positive association between abundance and floral resources depended on insecticide loadings and habitat diversity. By contrast, our exploratory models including habitat composition metrics revealed a complex suite of interactive effects. These results demonstrate that improving pollinator community composition and health is unlikely to be achieved with general resource enhancements only. Rather, local land-use context should be considered in fine-tuning pollinator management and conservation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Natural processes influencing pollinator health: from chemistry to landscapes'.

Nonlinear trends in abundance and diversity and complex responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods.

Time series data on arthropod populations are critical for understanding the magnitude, direction, and drivers of change. However, most arthropod monitoring programs are short-lived and restricted in taxonomic resolution. Monitoring data from the Arctic are especially underrepresented, yet critical to uncovering and understanding some of the earliest biological responses to rapid environmental change. Clear imprints of climate on the behavior and life history of some Arctic arthropods have been demonstrated, but a synthesis of population-level abundance changes across taxa is lacking. We utilized 24 y of abundance data from Zackenberg in High-Arctic Greenland to assess trends in abundance and diversity and identify potential climatic drivers of abundance changes. Unlike findings from temperate systems, we found a nonlinear pattern, with total arthropod abundance gradually declining during 1996 to 2014, followed by a sharp increase. Family-level diversity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting increasing dominance of a small number of taxa. Total abundance masked more complicated trajectories of family-level abundance, which also frequently varied among habitats. Contrary to expectation in this extreme polar environment, winter and fall conditions and positive density-dependent feedbacks were more common determinants of arthropod dynamics than summer temperature. Together, these data highlight the complexity of characterizing climate change responses even in relatively simple Arctic food webs. Our results underscore the need for data reporting beyond overall trends in biomass or abundance and for including basic research on life history and ecology to achieve a more nuanced understanding of the sensitivity of Arctic and other arthropods to global changes.

Molecular and ecological plant defense responses along an elevational gradient in a boreal ecosystem.

Plants have the capacity to alter their phenotype in response to environmental factors, such as herbivory, a phenomenon called phenotypic plasticity. However, little is known on how plant responses to herbivory are modulated by environmental variation along ecological gradients. To investigate this question, we used bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) plants and an experimental treatment to induce plant defenses (i.e., application of methyl jasmonate; MeJA), to observe ecological responses and gene expression changes along an elevational gradient in a boreal system in western Norway. The gradient included optimal growing conditions for bilberry in this region (ca. 500 m a.s.l.), and the plant's range limits at high (ca. 900 m a.s.l.) and low (100 m a.s.l.) elevations. Across all altitudinal sites, MeJA-treated plants allocated more resources to herbivory resistance while reducing growth and reproduction than control plants, but this response was more pronounced at the lowest elevation. High-elevation plants growing under less herbivory pressure but more resource-limiting conditions exhibited consistently high expression levels of defense genes in both MeJA-treated and untreated plants at all times, suggesting a constant state of "alert." These results suggest that plant defense responses at both the molecular and ecological levels are modulated by the combination of climate and herbivory pressure, such that plants under different environmental conditions differentially direct the resources available to specific antiherbivore strategies. Our findings are important for understanding the complex impact of future climate changes on plant-herbivore interactions, as this is a major driver of ecosystem functioning and biodiversity.

Circumpolar terrestrial arthropod monitoring: A review of ongoing activities, opportunities and challenges, with a focus on spiders.

The terrestrial chapter of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) has the potential to bring international multi-taxon, long-term monitoring together, but detailed fundamental species information for Arctic arthropods lags far behind that for vertebrates and plants. In this paper, we demonstrate this major challenge to the CBMP by focussing on spiders (Order: Araneae) as an example group. We collate available circumpolar data on the distribution of spiders and highlight the current monitoring opportunities and identify the key knowledge gaps to address before monitoring can become efficient. We found spider data to be more complete than data for other taxa, but still variable in quality and availability between Arctic regions, highlighting the need for greater international co-operation for baseline studies and data sharing. There is also a dearth of long-term datasets for spiders and other arthropod groups from which to assess status and trends of biodiversity. Therefore, baseline studies should be conducted at all monitoring stations and we make recommendations for the development of the CBMP in relation to terrestrial arthropods more generally.

Status and trends of terrestrial arthropod abundance and diversity in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic.

The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) provides an opportunity to improve our knowledge of Arctic arthropod diversity, but initial baseline studies are required to summarise the status and trends of planned target groups of species known as Focal Ecosystem Components (FECs). We begin this process by collating available data for a relatively well-studied region in the Arctic, the North Atlantic region, summarising the diversity of key terrestrial arthropod FECs, and compiling trends for some representative species. We found the FEC classification system to be challenging to implement, but identified some key groups to target in the initial phases of the programme. Long-term data are scarce and exhibit high levels of spatial and temporal variability. Nevertheless, we found that a number of species and groups are in decline, mirroring patterns in other regions of the world. We emphasise that terrestrial arthropods require higher priority within future Arctic monitoring programmes.

Community dynamics can modify the direction of simulated warming effects on crop yield.

Climate change affects agriculture through a range of direct and indirect pathways. These include direct changes to impacts of pests and diseases on crops and indirect effects produced by interactions between organisms. It remains unclear whether the net effects of these biotic influences will be beneficial or detrimental to crop yield because few studies consider multiple interactions within communities and the net effects of these on community structure and yield. In this study, we created two experimental grapevine communities in field cages, and quantified direct and indirect effects of key pest and disease species under simulated climate change conditions (elevated temperature and reduced humidity). We found that the net impact of simulated climate change on total yield differed for the two communities, with increased yield in one community and no effect in the other. These effects, and the interactions between pests and pathogens, may also have been affected by the prevailing abiotic conditions, and we discuss how these may contribute to our findings. These results demonstrate that future research should consider more of the interactions between key organisms affecting crops under varying abiotic conditions to help generate future recommendations for adapting to the effects of climate change.

Interactions between body size, abundance, seasonality, and phenology in forest beetles.

Body size correlates with a large number of species traits, and these relationships have frequently been used to explain patterns in populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, diverging patterns occur, and there is a need for more data on different taxa at different scales. Using a large dataset of 155,418 individual beetles from 588 species collected over 13 years of sampling in Norway, we have explored whether body size predicts abundance, seasonality, and phenology in insects. Seasonality is estimated here by flight activity period length and phenology by peak activity. We develop several methods to estimate these traits from low-resolution sampling data. The relationship between abundance and body size was significant and as expected; the smaller species were more abundant. However, smaller species tended to fly for longer periods of the summer and peaked in midsummer, while larger species were restricted to shorter temporal windows. Further analysis of repeated sampling from a single location suggested that smaller species had increased flight period lengths in warmer years, but larger species showed the opposite pattern. The results 1) indicate that smaller species are likely to be disproportionately valuable in ecological interactions, and 2) provide potential insights into the traits influencing the vulnerability of some larger species to disturbances and climate change.

Historical nectar assessment reveals the fall and rise of floral resources in Britain.

There is considerable concern over declines in insect pollinator communities and potential impacts on the pollination of crops and wildflowers. Among the multiple pressures facing pollinators, decreasing floral resources due to habitat loss and degradation has been suggested as a key contributing factor. However, a lack of quantitative data has hampered testing for historical changes in floral resources. Here we show that overall floral rewards can be estimated at a national scale by combining vegetation surveys and direct nectar measurements. We find evidence for substantial losses in nectar resources in England and Wales between the 1930s and 1970s; however, total nectar provision in Great Britain as a whole had stabilized by 1978, and increased from 1998 to 2007. These findings concur with trends in pollinator diversity, which declined in the mid-twentieth century but stabilized more recently. The diversity of nectar sources declined from 1978 to 1990 and thereafter in some habitats, with four plant species accounting for over 50% of national nectar provision in 2007. Calcareous grassland, broadleaved woodland and neutral grassland are the habitats that produce the greatest amount of nectar per unit area from the most diverse sources, whereas arable land is the poorest with respect to amount of nectar per unit area and diversity of nectar sources. Although agri-environment schemes add resources to arable landscapes, their national contribution is low. Owing to their large area, improved grasslands could add substantially to national nectar provision if they were managed to increase floral resource provision. This national-scale assessment of floral resource provision affords new insights into the links between plant and pollinator declines, and offers considerable opportunities for conservation.

Aphid-willow interactions in a high Arctic ecosystem: responses to raised temperature and goose disturbance.

Recently, there have been several studies using open top chambers (OTCs) or cloches to examine the response of Arctic plant communities to artificially elevated temperatures. Few, however, have investigated multitrophic systems, or the effects of both temperature and vertebrate grazing treatments on invertebrates. This study investigated trophic interactions between an herbivorous insect (Sitobion calvulum, Aphididae), a woody perennial host plant (Salix polaris) and a selective vertebrate grazer (barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis). In a factorial experiment, the responses of the insect and its host to elevated temperatures using open top chambers (OTCs) and to three levels of goose grazing pressure were assessed over two summer growing seasons (2004 and 2005). OTCs significantly enhanced the leaf phenology of Salix in both years and there was a significant OTC by goose presence interaction in 2004. Salix leaf number was unaffected by treatments in both years, but OTCs increased leaf size and mass in 2005. Salix reproduction and the phenology of flowers were unaffected by both treatments. Aphid densities were increased by OTCs but unaffected by goose presence in both years. While goose presence had little effect on aphid density or host plant phenology in this system, the OTC effects provide interesting insights into the possibility of phenological synchrony disruption. The advanced phenology of Salix effectively lengthens the growing season for the plant, but despite a close association with leaf maturity, the population dynamics of the aphid appeared to lack a similar phenological response, except for the increased population observed.