Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-west European continental shelf.

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish (Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June-September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.

Modelling salmon lice dispersal in Loch Torridon, Scotland.

A particle transport model is described that is being used to simulate the dispersal of salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) larvae in the waters of Loch Torridon. A hydrodynamic model, forced by tides and winds, drives the transport model. Particle movements are strongly influenced by winds, which can lead to formation of lice concentrations in coastal areas several kilometres from the source. Idealised constant wind simulations have been used to locate areas that larval lice may potentially reach from given source locations. Detailed analysis of simulations forced with real wind data is required to assess areas that larval lice from these sources are likely to reach. Further field and experimental work on the viability of lice is required to assess infection risk.

Sea lice treatments on salmon farms have no adverse effects on zooplankton communities: a case study.

The long-term effects of the sea lice treatment products Excis and Slice on zooplankton communities in a Scottish sea loch were investigated at a commercially operating salmon farm over 31 months. Cypermethrin and emamectin benzoate are the active ingredients in Excis and Slice respectively, which are widely used to control ectoparasitic sea lice on farmed salmon. Excis and Slice treatments did not cause basin-wide effects on the zooplankton community. For both formulations, no adverse affects on zooplankton were detected, instead observed changes in zooplankton abundance and community composition displayed natural seasonal cycles of abundance. Water column concentrations of cypermethrin and emamectin benzoate following sea lice treatments at the fish farm were predicted using models. Cypermethrin concentrations of 3000 ng/l were predicted for short periods immediately after each cage treatment assuming no particle adhesion. The 3-h and 24-h Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) were exceeded for 10 h and 32 h respectively on the second day when five cages were treated. However, cypermethrin concentrations higher than 0.5 ng/l (24-h EQS) were predicted to occur over <2% of the total basin area on each treatment day. The 3-h EQS (16 ng/l) was exceeded in <0.3% of the basin on each treatment day. The concentration of soluble emamectin benzoate present in the water column was predicted from modelled deposition footprints and sediment concentrations to be of order 10(-3) ng/l. Predicted concentrations of both chemicals were generally lower than those causing toxicity to copepods in previous laboratory studies and further support the results of this field study that environmental concentrations of Excis and Slice do not adversely impact zooplankton communities.