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1.
Stat Methods Med Res ; 32(11): 2135-2157, 2023 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37802096

RESUMEN

There are multiple possible cluster randomised trial designs that vary in when the clusters cross between control and intervention states, when observations are made within clusters, and how many observations are made at each time point. Identifying the most efficient study design is complex though, owing to the correlation between observations within clusters and over time. In this article, we present a review of statistical and computational methods for identifying optimal cluster randomised trial designs. We also adapt methods from the experimental design literature for experimental designs with correlated observations to the cluster trial context. We identify three broad classes of methods: using exact formulae for the treatment effect estimator variance for specific models to derive algorithms or weights for cluster sequences; generalised methods for estimating weights for experimental units; and, combinatorial optimisation algorithms to select an optimal subset of experimental units. We also discuss methods for rounding experimental weights, extensions to non-Gaussian models, and robust optimality. We present results from multiple cluster trial examples that compare the different methods, including determination of the optimal allocation of clusters across a set of cluster sequences and selecting the optimal number of single observations to make in each cluster-period for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models, and including exchangeable and exponential decay covariance structures.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Proyectos de Investigación , Tamaño de la Muestra , Análisis por Conglomerados , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto
2.
PLoS One ; 16(3): e0249233, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33788880

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To explore the effect of introducing 24/7 resident labour ward consultant presence on neonatal and maternal outcomes in a large obstetric unit in England. DESIGN: Retrospective time sequence analysis of routinely collected data. SETTING: Obstetric unit of large teaching hospital in England. PARTICIPANTS: Women and babies delivered between1 July 2011 and 30 June 2017. Births <24 weeks gestation or by planned caesarean section were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary composite outcome comprised intrapartum stillbirth, neonatal death, babies requiring therapeutic hypothermia, or admission to neonatal intensive care within three hours of birth. Secondary outcomes included markers of neonatal and maternal morbidity. Planned subgroup analyses investigated gestation (<34 weeks; 34-36 weeks; ≥37 weeks) and time of day. RESULTS: 17324 babies delivered before and 16110 after 24/7 consultant presence. The prevalence of the primary outcome increased by 0.65%, from 2.07% (359/17324) before 24/7 consultant presence to 2.72% (438/16110, P < 0.001) after 24/7 consultant presence which was consistent with an upward trend over time already well established before 24/7 consultant presence began (OR 1.09 p.a.; CI 1.04 to 1.13). Overall, there was no change in this trend associated with the transition to 24/7. However, in babies born ≥37 weeks gestation, the upward trend was reversed after implementation of 24/7 (OR 0.67 p.a.; CI 0.49 to 0.93; P = 0.017). No substantial differences were shown in other outcomes or subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, resident consultant obstetrician presence 24/7 on labour ward was not associated with a change in a pre-existing trend of increasing adverse infant outcomes. However, 24/7 presence was associated with a reversal in increasing adverse outcomes for term babies.


Asunto(s)
Consultores/psicología , Trabajo de Parto , Adulto , Cesárea , Inglaterra , Femenino , Edad Gestacional , Hospitales de Enseñanza , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Cuidado Intensivo Neonatal , Modelos Logísticos , Oportunidad Relativa , Parto , Hemorragia Posparto/diagnóstico , Hemorragia Posparto/epidemiología , Embarazo , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Tiempo
3.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(3)2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33737285

RESUMEN

A recent systematic review identified few papers on the economic evaluation of systems for emergency transport of acutely ill or injured patients. In addition, we found no articles dealing with the methodological challenges posed by such studies in low-income or middle-income countries. We therefore carried out an analysis of issues that are of particular salience to this important topic. This is an intellectual study in which we develop models, identify their limitations, suggest potential extensions to the models and discuss priorities for empirical studies to populate models. First, we develop a general model to calculate changes in survival contingent on the reduced time to treatment that an emergency transport system is designed to achieve. Second, we develop a model to estimate transfer times over an area that will be served by a proposed transfer system. Third, we discuss difficulties in obtaining parameters with which to populate the models. Fourth, we discuss costs, both direct and indirect, of an emergency transfer service. Fifth, we discuss the issue that outcomes other than survival should be considered and that the effects of a service are a weighted sum over all the conditions and severities for which the service caters. Lastly, based on the above work, we identify priorities for research. To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify and frame issues in the health economics of acute transfer systems and to develop models to calculate survival rates from basic parameters, such as time delay/survival relationships, that vary by intervention type and context.


Asunto(s)
Países en Desarrollo , Renta , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Humanos , Pobreza
4.
BMJ Qual Saf ; 30(7): 536-546, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33115851

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In 2013, the English National Health Service launched the policy of 7-day services to improve care quality and outcomes for weekend emergency admissions. AIMS: To determine whether the quality of care of emergency medical admissions is worse at weekends, and whether this has changed during implementation of 7-day services. METHODS: Using data from 20 acute hospital Trusts in England, we performed randomly selected structured case record reviews of patients admitted to hospital as emergencies at weekends and on weekdays between financial years 2012-2013 and 2016-2017. Senior doctor ('specialist') involvement was determined from annual point prevalence surveys. The primary outcome was the rate of clinical errors. Secondary outcomes included error-related adverse event rates, global quality of care and four indicators of good practice. RESULTS: Seventy-nine clinical reviewers reviewed 4000 admissions, 800 in duplicate. Errors, adverse events and care quality were not significantly different between weekend and weekday admissions, but all improved significantly between epochs, particularly errors most likely influenced by doctors (clinical assessment, diagnosis, treatment, prescribing and communication): error rate OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; adverse event OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.69; care quality OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; all adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity. Postadmission in-hospital care processes improved between epochs and were better for weekend admissions (vital signs with National Early Warning Score and timely specialist review). Preadmission processes in the community were suboptimal at weekends and deteriorated between epochs (fewer family doctor referrals, more patients with chronic disease or palliative care designation). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Hospital care quality of emergency medical admissions is not worse at weekends and has improved during implementation of the 7-day services policy. Causal pathways for the weekend effect may extend into the prehospital setting.


Asunto(s)
Admisión del Paciente , Medicina Estatal , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Inglaterra , Política de Salud , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitales , Humanos , Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Factores de Tiempo
5.
Stat Med ; 40(5): 1133-1146, 2021 02 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33258219

RESUMEN

In this article, we review and evaluate a number of methods used in the design and analysis of small three-arm parallel cluster randomized trials. We conduct a simulation-based study to evaluate restricted randomization methods including covariate-constrained randomization and a novel method for matched-group cluster randomization. We also evaluate the appropriate modelling of the data and small sample inferential methods for a variety of treatment effects relevant to three-arm trials. Our results indicate that small-sample corrections are required for high (0.05) but not low (0.001) values of the intraclass correlation coefficient and their performance can depend on trial design, number of clusters, and the nature of the hypothesis being tested. The Satterthwaite correction generally performed best at an ICC of 0.05 with a nominal type I error rate for single-period trials, and in trials with repeated measures type I error rates were between 0.04 and 0.06. Restricted randomization methods produce little benefit in trials with repeated measures but in trials with single post-intervention design can provide relatively large gains in power when compared to the most unbalanced possible allocations. Matched-group randomization improves power but is not as effective as covariate-constrained randomization. For model-based analysis, adjusting for fewer covariates than were used in a restricted randomization process under any design can produce non-nominal type I error rates and reductions in power. Where comparisons to two-arm cluster trials are possible, the performance of the methods is qualitatively very similar.


Asunto(s)
Proyectos de Investigación , Análisis por Conglomerados , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Distribución Aleatoria , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto
6.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 19(1): 123, 2019 06 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31200640

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomised trials with unequal sized clusters often have lower precision than with clusters of equal size. To allow for this, sample sizes are inflated by a modified version of the design effect for clustering. These inflation factors are valid under the assumption that randomisation is stratified by cluster size. We investigate the impact of unequal cluster size when that constraint is relaxed, with particular focus on the stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, where this is more difficult to achieve. METHODS: Assuming a multi-level mixed effect model with exchangeable correlation structure for a cross-sectional design, we use simulation methods to compare the precision for a trial with clusters of unequal size to a trial with clusters of equal size (relative efficiency). For a range of scenarios we illustrate the impact of various design features (the cluster-mean correlation - a function of the intracluster correlation and the cluster size, the number of clusters, number of randomisation sequences) on the average and distribution of the relative efficiency. RESULTS: Simulations confirm that the average reduction in precision, due to varying cluster sizes, is smaller in a stepped-wedge trial compared to the parallel trial. However, the variance of the distribution of the relative efficiency is large; and is larger under the stepped-wedge design compared to the parallel design. This can result in large variations in actual power, depending on the allocation of clusters to sequences. Designs with larger variations in cluster sizes, smaller number of clusters and studies with smaller cluster-mean correlations (smaller cluster sizes or smaller intra-cluster correlation) are particularly at risk. CONCLUSION: The actual realised power in a stepped-wedge trial might be substantially higher or lower than that estimated. This is particularly important when there are a small number of clusters or the variability in cluster sizes is large. Constraining the randomisation on cluster size, where feasible, might mitigate this effect.


Asunto(s)
Determinación de Punto Final/métodos , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud/métodos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/métodos , Proyectos de Investigación , Algoritmos , Análisis por Conglomerados , Simulación por Computador , Estudios Transversales , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Determinación de Punto Final/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Tamaño de la Muestra
8.
BMJ Qual Saf ; 28(3): 223-230, 2019 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30301873

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the higher weekend admission mortality risk is attributable to increased severity of illness. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 4 years weekend and weekday adult emergency admissions to a university teaching hospital in England. OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day postadmission weekend:weekday mortality ratios adjusted for severity of illness (baseline National Early Warning Score (NEWS)), routes of admission to hospital, transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) and demographics. RESULTS: Despite similar emergency department daily attendance rates, fewer patients were admitted on weekends (mean admission rate 91/day vs 120/day) because of fewer general practitioner referrals. Weekend admissions were sicker than weekday (mean NEWS 1.8 vs 1.7, p=0.008), more likely to undergo transfer to ICU within 24 hours (4.2% vs 3.0%), spent longer in hospital (median 3 days vs 2 days) and less likely to experience same-day discharge (17.2% vs 21.9%) (all p values <0.001).The crude 30-day postadmission mortality ratio for weekend admission (OR=1.13; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.19) was attenuated using standard adjustment (OR=1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17). In patients for whom NEWS values were available (90%), the crude OR (1.07; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) was not affected with standard adjustment. Adjustment using NEWS alone nullified the weekend effect (OR=1.02; 0.96-1.08).NEWS completion rates were higher on weekends (91.7%) than weekdays (89.5%). Missing NEWS was associated with direct transfer to intensive care bypassing electronic data capture. Missing NEWS in non-ICU weekend patients was associated with a higher mortality and fewer same-day discharges than weekdays. CONCLUSIONS: Patients admitted to hospital on weekends are sicker than those admitted on weekdays. The cause of the weekend effect may lie in community services.


Asunto(s)
Atención Posterior , Mortalidad Hospitalaria/tendencias , Admisión del Paciente , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Adulto , Anciano , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Inglaterra , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos
10.
Stat Med ; 37(30): 4652-4664, 2018 12 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30209812

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A cluster trial with unequal cluster sizes often has lower precision than one with equal clusters, with a corresponding inflation of the design effect. For parallel group trials, adjustments to the design effect are available under sampling models with a single intracluster correlation. Design effects for equal clusters under more complex scenarios have appeared recently (including stepped wedge trials under cross-sectional or longitudinal sampling). We investigate the impact of unequal cluster size in these more general settings. RESULTS: Assuming a linear mixed model with an exchangeable correlation structure that incorporates cluster and subject autocorrelation, we compute the relative efficiency (RE) of a trial with clusters of unequal size under a size-stratified randomization scheme, as compared to an equal cluster trial with the same total number of observations. If there are no within-cluster time effects, the RE exceeds that for a parallel trial. In general, the RE is a weighted average of the RE for a parallel trial and the RE for a crossover trial in the same clusters. Existing approximations for parallel designs are extended to the general setting. Increasing the cluster size by the factor (1 + CV2 ), where CV is the coefficient of variation of cluster size, leads to conservative sample sizes, as in a popular method for parallel trials. CONCLUSION: Methods to assess experimental precision for single-period parallel trials with unequal cluster sizes can be extended to stepped wedge and other complete layouts under longitudinal or cross-sectional sampling. In practice, the loss of precision due to unequal cluster sizes is unlikely to exceed 12%.


Asunto(s)
Análisis por Conglomerados , Estudios Transversales , Estudios Longitudinales , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/métodos , Tamaño de la Muestra , Muestreo , Estudios Cruzados , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos
11.
Trials ; 19(1): 213, 2018 Apr 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29615134

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Quality of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is associated with survival, but recommended guidelines are often not met, and less than half the children with an in-hospital arrest will survive to discharge. A single-center before-and-after study demonstrated that outcomes may be improved with a novel training program in which all pediatric intensive care unit staff are encouraged to participate in frequent CPR refresher training and regular, structured resuscitation debriefings focused on patient-centric physiology. METHODS/DESIGN: This ongoing trial will assess whether a program of structured debriefings and point-of-care bedside practice that emphasizes physiologic resuscitation targets improves the rate of survival to hospital discharge with favorable neurologic outcome in children receiving CPR in the intensive care unit. This study is designed as a hybrid stepped-wedge trial in which two of ten participating hospitals are randomly assigned to enroll in the intervention group and two are assigned to enroll in the control group for the duration of the trial. The remaining six hospitals enroll initially in the control group but will transition to enrolling in the intervention group at randomly assigned staggered times during the enrollment period. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first implementation of a hybrid stepped-wedge design. It was chosen over a traditional stepped-wedge design because the resulting improvement in statistical power reduces the required enrollment by 9 months (14%). However, this design comes with additional challenges, including logistics of implementing an intervention prior to the start of enrollment. Nevertheless, if results from the single-center pilot are confirmed in this trial, it will have a profound effect on CPR training and quality improvement initiatives. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02837497 . Registered on July 19, 2016.


Asunto(s)
Reanimación Cardiopulmonar/educación , Paro Cardíaco/terapia , Capacitación en Servicio/métodos , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico , Cuerpo Médico de Hospitales/educación , Grupo de Atención al Paciente , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Adolescente , Factores de Edad , Reanimación Cardiopulmonar/efectos adversos , Reanimación Cardiopulmonar/mortalidad , Reanimación Cardiopulmonar/normas , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Paro Cardíaco/diagnóstico , Paro Cardíaco/mortalidad , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico/normas , Masculino , Cuerpo Médico de Hospitales/normas , Estudios Multicéntricos como Asunto , Grupo de Atención al Paciente/normas , Sistemas de Atención de Punto , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Factores de Riesgo , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Estados Unidos
12.
BMJ Qual Saf ; 27(9): 725-736, 2018 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29572298

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In this UK study, we investigated the impact of computerised physician order entry (CPOE) and clinical decision support (CDS) implementation on the rate of 78 high-risk prescribing errors amenable to CDS. METHODS: We conducted a preintervention/postintervention study in three acute hospitals in England. A predefined list of prescribing errors was incorporated into an audit tool. At each site, approximately 4000 prescriptions were reviewed both pre-CPOE and 6 months post-CPOE implementation. The number of opportunities for error and the number of errors that occurred were collated. Error rates were then calculated and compared between periods, as well as by the level of CDS. RESULTS: The prescriptions of 1244 patients were audited pre-CPOE and 1178 post-CPOE implementation. A total of 28 526 prescriptions were reviewed, with 21 138 opportunities for error identified based on 78 defined errors. Across the three sites, for those prescriptions where opportunities for error were identified, the error rate was found to reduce significantly post-CPOE implementation, from 5.0% to 4.0% (P<0.001). CDS implementation by error type was found to differ significantly between sites, ranging from 0% to 88% across clinical contraindication, dose/frequency, drug interactions and other error types (P<0.001). Overall, 43/78 (55%) of the errors had some degree of CDS implemented in at least one of the hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of CPOE with CDS was associated with clinically important reductions in the rate of high-risk prescribing errors. Given the pre-post design, these findings however need to be interpreted with caution. The occurrence of errors was found to be highly dependent on the level of restriction of CDS presented to the prescriber, with the effect that different configurations of the same CPOE system can produce very different results.


Asunto(s)
Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Sistemas de Entrada de Órdenes Médicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Errores de Medicación/prevención & control , Errores de Medicación/estadística & datos numéricos , Sistemas de Medicación en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitales , Humanos , Auditoría Médica , Proyectos Piloto , Estudios Prospectivos , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Medicina Estatal , Reino Unido
13.
BMJ Open ; 8(2): e015561, 2018 02 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29476025

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: This protocol concerns the evaluation of increased specialist staffing at weekends in hospitals in England. Seven-day health services are a key policy for the UK government and other health systems trying to improve use of infrastructure and resources. A particular motivation for the 7-day policy has been the observed increase in the risk of death associated with weekend admission, which has been attributed to fewer hospital specialists being available at weekends. However, the causes of the weekend effect have not been adequately characterised; many of the excess deaths associated with the 'weekend effect' may not be preventable, and the presumed benefits of improved specialist cover might be offset by the cost of implementation. METHODS/DESIGN: The Bayesian-founded method we propose will consist of four major steps. First, the development of a qualitative causal model. Specialist presence can affect multiple, interacting causal processes. One or more models will be developed from the results of an expert elicitation workshop and probabilities elicited for each model and relevant model parameters. Second, systematic review of the literature. The model from the first step will provide search limits for a review to identify relevant studies. Third, a statistical model for the effects of specialist presence on care quality and patient outcomes. Fourth, valuation of outcomes. The expected net benefits of different levels of specialist intensity will then be evaluated with respect to the posterior distributions of the parameters. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Review Subcommittee of the South West Wales REC on 11 November 2013. Informed consent was not required for accessing anonymised patient case records from which patient identifiers had been removed. The findings of this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals; the outputs from this research will also form part of the project report to the HS&DR Programme Board.


Asunto(s)
Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización , Admisión y Programación de Personal/estadística & datos numéricos , Médicos/provisión & distribución , Especialización/estadística & datos numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Economía Hospitalaria , Inglaterra , Humanos , Oportunidad Relativa , Médicos/economía , Calidad de la Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Proyectos de Investigación , Especialización/economía , Medicina Estatal , Factores de Tiempo
14.
BMJ Open ; 7(12): e018747, 2017 12 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29275347

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: The mortality associated with weekend admission to hospital (the 'weekend effect') has for many years been attributed to deficiencies in quality of hospital care, often assumed to be due to suboptimal senior medical staffing at weekends. This protocol describes a case note review to determine whether there are differences in care quality for emergency admissions (EAs) to hospital at weekends compared with weekdays, and whether the difference has reduced over time as health policies have changed to promote 7-day services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Cross-sectional two-epoch case record review of 20 acute hospital Trusts in England. Anonymised case records of 4000 EAs to hospital, 2000 at weekends and 2000 on weekdays, covering two epochs (financial years 2012-2013 and 2016-2017). Admissions will be randomly selected across the whole of each epoch from Trust electronic patient records. Following training, structured implicit case reviews will be conducted by consultants or senior registrars (senior residents) in acute medical specialities (60 case records per reviewer), and limited to the first 7 days following hospital admission. The co-primary outcomes are the weekend:weekday admission ratio of errors per case record, and a global assessment of care quality on a Likert scale. Error rates will be analysed using mixed effects logistic regression models, and care quality using ordinal regression methods. Secondary outcomes include error typology, error-related adverse events and any correlation between error rates and staffing. The data will also be used to inform a parallel health economics analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The project has received ethics approval from the South West Wales Research Ethics Committee (REC): reference 13/WA/0372. Informed consent is not required for accessing anonymised patient case records from which patient identifiers had been removed. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in high-quality journals and through local High-intensity Specialist-Led Acute Care (HiSLAC) leads at the 121 hospitals that make up the HiSLAC Collaborative.


Asunto(s)
Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/normas , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Admisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores de Tiempo , Estudios Transversales , Inglaterra , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Programas Nacionales de Salud , Calidad de la Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Proyectos de Investigación , Estudios Retrospectivos
16.
BMJ Qual Saf ; 26(5): 408-416, 2017 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27334868

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Standardised mortality ratios do not provide accurate measures of preventable mortality. This has generated interest in using case notes to assess the preventable component of mortality. But, different methods of measurement have not been compared. We compared the reliability of two scales for assessing preventability and the correspondence between them. METHODS: Medical specialists reviewed case notes of patients who had died in hospital, using two instruments: a five-point Likert scale and a continuous (0-100) scale of preventability. To enhance generalisability, we used two different hospital datasets with different types of acute medical patients across different epochs, and in two jurisdictions (UK and USA). We investigated the reliability of measurement and correspondence of preventability estimates across the two scales. Ordinal mixed effects regression methods were used to analyse the Likert scale and to calibrate it against the continuous scale. We report the estimates of the probability a death could have been prevented, accounting for reviewer inconsistency. RESULTS: Correspondence between the two scales was strong; the Likert categories explained most of the variation (76% UK, 73% USA) in the continuous scale. Measurement reliability was low, but similar across the two instruments in each dataset (intraclass correlation: 0.27, UK; 0.23, USA). Adjusting for the inconsistency of reviewer judgements reduced the proportion of cases with high preventability, such that the proportion of all deaths judged probably or definitely preventable on the balance of probability was less than 1%. CONCLUSIONS: The correspondence is high between a Likert and a continuous scale, although the low reliability of both would suggest careful measurement design would be needed to use either scale. Few to no cases are above the threshold when using a balance of probability approach to determining a preventable death, and in any case, there is little evidence supporting anything more than an ordinal correspondence between these reviewer estimates of probability and the true probability. Thus, it would be more defensible to use them as an ordinal measure of the quality of care received by patients who died in the hospital.


Asunto(s)
Recolección de Datos/normas , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Anciano , Recolección de Datos/métodos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Evaluación de Procesos y Resultados en Atención de Salud , Medicina Preventiva , Análisis de Regresión , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Enfermedades Respiratorias/mortalidad , Enfermedades Respiratorias/prevención & control , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
17.
Trials ; 17: 402, 2016 08 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27524396

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Clustered randomised controlled trials (CRCTs) are increasingly common in primary care. Outcomes within the same cluster tend to be correlated with one another. In sample size calculations, estimates of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC) are needed to allow for this nonindependence. In studies with observations over more than one time period, estimates of the inter-period correlation (IPC) and the within-period correlation (WPC) are also needed. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study of all patients aged 18 or over with a diagnosis of type-2 diabetes, from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database, between 1 October 2007 and 31 March 2010. We report estimates of the ICC, IPC, and WPC for typical outcomes using unadjusted and adjusted generalised linear mixed models with cluster and cluster by period random effects. For binary outcomes we report on the proportions scale, which is the appropriate scale for trial design. Estimated ICCs were compared to those reported from a systematic search of CRCTs undertaken in primary care in the UK in type-2 diabetes. RESULTS: Data from 430 general practices, with a median [IQR] number of diabetics per practice of 241 [150-351], were analysed. The ICC for HbA1c was 0.032 (95 % CI 0.026-0.038). For a two-period (each of 12 months) design, the WPC for HbA1c was 0.035 (95 % CI 0.030-0.040) and the IPC was 0.019 (95 % CI 0.014-0.026). The difference between the WPC and the IPC indicates a decay of correlation over time. Following dichotomisation at 7.5 %, the ICC for HbA1c was 0.026 (95 % CI 0.022-0.030). ICCs for other clinical measurements and clinical outcomes are presented. A systematic search of ICCs used in the design of CRCTs involving type-2 diabetes with HbA1c (undichotomised) as the outcome found that published trials tended to use more conservative ICC values (median 0.047, IQR 0.047-0.050) than those reported here. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates of ICCs, IPCs, and WPCs for a variety of outcomes commonly used in diabetes trials can be useful for the design of CRCTs. In studies with observations taken at different time-points, the correlation of observations may decay over time, as reflected in lower values for the IPC than for the ICC. The IPC and WPC estimates are the first reported for UK primary care data.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/terapia , Atención Primaria de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Biomarcadores/sangre , Análisis por Conglomerados , Estudios Transversales , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/sangre , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Femenino , Hemoglobina Glucada/metabolismo , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Tamaño de la Muestra , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Reino Unido
19.
Lancet ; 388(10040): 178-86, 2016 Jul 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27178476

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality rates associated with weekend hospital admission (the so-called weekend effect) have been attributed to suboptimum staffing levels of specialist consultants. However, evidence for a causal association is elusive, and the magnitude of the weekend specialist deficit remains unquantified. This uncertainty could hamper efforts by national health systems to introduce 7 day health services. We aimed to examine preliminary associations between specialist intensity and weekend admission mortality across the English National Health Service. METHODS: Eligible hospital trusts were those in England receiving unselected emergency admissions. On Sunday June 15 and Wednesday June 18, 2014, we undertook a point prevalence survey of hospital specialists (consultants) to obtain data relating to the care of patients admitted as emergencies. We defined specialist intensity at each trust as the self-reported estimated number of specialist hours per ten emergency admissions between 0800 h and 2000 h on Sunday and Wednesday. With use of data for all adult emergency admissions for financial year 2013-14, we compared weekend to weekday admission risk of mortality with the Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratio within each trust. We stratified trusts by size quintile. FINDINGS: 127 of 141 eligible acute hospital trusts agreed to participate; 115 (91%) trusts contributed data to the point prevalence survey. Of 34,350 clinicians surveyed, 15,537 (45%) responded. Substantially fewer specialists were present providing care to emergency admissions on Sunday (1667 [11%]) than on Wednesday (6105 [42%]). Specialists present on Sunday spent 40% more time caring for emergency patients than did those present on Wednesday (mean 5·74 h [SD 3·39] vs 3·97 h [3·31]); however, the median specialist intensity on Sunday was only 48% (IQR 40-58) of that on Wednesday. The Sunday to Wednesday intensity ratio was less than 0·7 in 104 (90%) of the contributing trusts. Mortality risk among patients admitted at weekends was higher than among those admitted on weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·08-1·11; p<0·0001). There was no significant association between Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratios and weekend to weekday mortality ratios (r -0·042; p=0·654). INTERPRETATION: This cross-sectional analysis did not detect a correlation between weekend staffing of hospital specialists and mortality risk for emergency admissions. Further investigation is needed to evaluate whole-system secular change during the implementation of 7 day services. Policy makers should exercise caution before attributing the weekend effect mainly to differences in specialist staffing. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme.


Asunto(s)
Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Admisión y Programación de Personal/estadística & datos numéricos , Médicos/provisión & distribución , Especialización/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Transversales , Urgencias Médicas , Inglaterra , Política de Salud , Hospitales , Humanos , Oportunidad Relativa , Medicina Estatal , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Factores de Tiempo
20.
BMJ Open ; 6(2): e010166, 2016 Feb 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26846897

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials (SW-CRT) are increasingly being used in health policy and services research, but unless they are conducted and reported to the highest methodological standards, they are unlikely to be useful to decision-makers. Sample size calculations for these designs require allowance for clustering, time effects and repeated measures. METHODS: We carried out a methodological review of SW-CRTs up to October 2014. We assessed adherence to reporting each of the 9 sample size calculation items recommended in the 2012 extension of the CONSORT statement to cluster trials. RESULTS: We identified 32 completed trials and 28 independent protocols published between 1987 and 2014. Of these, 45 (75%) reported a sample size calculation, with a median of 5.0 (IQR 2.5-6.0) of the 9 CONSORT items reported. Of those that reported a sample size calculation, the majority, 33 (73%), allowed for clustering, but just 15 (33%) allowed for time effects. There was a small increase in the proportions reporting a sample size calculation (from 64% before to 84% after publication of the CONSORT extension, p=0.07). The type of design (cohort or cross-sectional) was not reported clearly in the majority of studies, but cohort designs seemed to be most prevalent. Sample size calculations in cohort designs were particularly poor with only 3 out of 24 (13%) of these studies allowing for repeated measures. DISCUSSION: The quality of reporting of sample size items in stepped-wedge trials is suboptimal. There is an urgent need for dissemination of the appropriate guidelines for reporting and methodological development to match the proliferation of the use of this design in practice. Time effects and repeated measures should be considered in all SW-CRT power calculations, and there should be clarity in reporting trials as cohort or cross-sectional designs.


Asunto(s)
Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricos , Proyectos de Investigación , Informe de Investigación , Análisis por Conglomerados , Política de Salud , Humanos , Tamaño de la Muestra
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