Global trade network patterns are coupled to fisheries sustainability.

The rapid development of seafood trade networks alongside the decline in biomass of many marine populations raises important questions about the role of global trade in fisheries sustainability. Mounting empirical and theoretical evidence shows the importance of trade development on commercially exploited species. However, there is limited understanding of how the development of trade networks, such as differences in connectivity and duration, affects fisheries sustainability. In a global analysis of over 400,000 bilateral trade flows and stock status estimates for 876 exploited fish and marine invertebrates from 223 territories, we reveal patterns between seafood trade network indicators and fisheries sustainability using a dynamic panel regression analysis. We found that fragmented networks with strong connectivity within a group of countries and weaker links between those groups (modularity) are associated with higher relative biomass. From 1995 to 2015, modularity fluctuated, and the number of trade connections (degree) increased. Unlike previous studies, we found no relationship between the number or duration of trade connections and fisheries sustainability. Our results highlight the need to jointly investigate fisheries and trade. Improved coordination and partnerships between fisheries authorities and trade organizations present opportunities to foster more sustainable fisheries.

Untangling social-ecological interactions: A methods portfolio approach to tackling contemporary sustainability challenges in fisheries.

Meeting the objectives of sustainable fisheries management requires attention to the complex interactions between humans, institutions and ecosystems that give rise to fishery outcomes. Traditional approaches to studying fisheries often do not fully capture, nor focus on these complex interactions between people and ecosystems. Despite advances in the scope and scale of interactions encompassed by more holistic methods, for example ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches, no single method can adequately capture the complexity of human-nature interactions. Approaches that combine quantitative and qualitative analytical approaches are necessary to generate a deeper understanding of these interactions and illuminate pathways to address fisheries sustainability challenges. However, combining methods is inherently challenging and requires understanding multiple methods from different, often disciplinarily distinct origins, demanding reflexivity of the researchers involved. Social-ecological systems' research has a history of utilising combinations of methods across the social and ecological realms to account for spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty and feedbacks that are key components of fisheries. We describe several categories of analytical methods (statistical modelling, network analysis, dynamic modelling, qualitative analysis and controlled behavioural experiments) and highlight their applications in fisheries research, strengths and limitations, data needs and overall objectives. We then discuss important considerations of a methods portfolio development process, including reflexivity, epistemological and ontological concerns and illustrate these considerations via three case studies. We show that, by expanding their methods portfolios, researchers will be better equipped to study the complex interactions shaping fisheries and contribute to solutions for sustainable fisheries management.

Collapse and recovery of seafood wholesale prices in time of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread around the world, disrupting economies, societies and daily life. Early research anticipated significant negative impacts for the globalized seafood supply network. Here, we explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on wholesale prices from five major seafood markets around the world. An anomalies analysis was used to establish a 5-year baseline price for each commodity. Daily price data from 2020 were compared to the baseline to identify collapses (>1.96 SE from baseline) and analyse collapse characteristics (timing, duration and magnitude). Non-uniform price collapses were observed across, and within, the markets analysed. Toyosu (Tokyo) Market experienced price collapses to 51% of commodities, Rungis (Paris) 36%, Mercamadrid (Madrid) 19%, Mercado La Nueva Viga (Mexico City) 35% and the Portland Fish Exchange (Portland, Maine) 32%. Collapse magnitude varied from 11% to 79% of the 5-year average price. Average collapse duration ranged from 13 to 24 weeks with some commodities (4%-22%) remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. For markets where volume data were available, collapses were also noted (59% of commodities in Toyosu, 10% in Mercamadrid and 19% in Portland Fish Exchange); in these cases, the volume collapse was more severe than the related price collapse. To better detect, anticipate and respond to future shocks, we recommend that relevant government agencies conduct comprehensive economic reviews of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the seafood supply chain, including the outcomes of emergency measures, short- and long-term implications of market volatility and identify areas of supply and labour vulnerabilities.

Trophic control changes with season and nutrient loading in lakes.

Experiments have revealed much about top-down and bottom-up control in ecosystems, but manipulative experiments are limited in spatial and temporal scale. To obtain a more nuanced understanding of trophic control over large scales, we explored long-term time-series data from 13 globally distributed lakes and used empirical dynamic modelling to quantify interaction strengths between zooplankton and phytoplankton over time within and across lakes. Across all lakes, top-down effects were associated with nutrients, switching from negative in mesotrophic lakes to positive in oligotrophic lakes. This result suggests that zooplankton nutrient recycling exceeds grazing pressure in nutrient-limited systems. Within individual lakes, results were consistent with a 'seasonal reset' hypothesis in which top-down and bottom-up interactions varied seasonally and were both strongest at the beginning of the growing season. Thus, trophic control is not static, but varies with abiotic conditions - dynamics that only become evident when observing changes over large spatial and temporal scales.

Circularity in fisheries data weakens real world prediction.

The systematic substitution of direct observational data with synthesized data derived from models during the stock assessment process has emerged as a low-cost alternative to direct data collection efforts. What is not widely appreciated, however, is how the use of such synthesized data can overestimate predictive skill when forecasting recruitment is part of the assessment process. Using a global database of stock assessments, we show that Standard Fisheries Models (SFMs) can successfully predict synthesized data based on presumed stock-recruitment relationships, however, they are generally less skillful at predicting observational data that are either raw or minimally filtered (denoised without using explicit stock-recruitment models). Additionally, we find that an equation-free approach that does not presume a specific stock-recruitment relationship is better than SFMs at predicting synthesized data, and moreover it can also predict observational recruitment data very well. Thus, while synthesized datasets are cheaper in the short term, they carry costs that can limit their utility in predicting real world recruitment.

Correction: A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174064.].

A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

To gauge the collateral impacts of fishing we must know where fishing boats operate and how much they fish. Although small-scale fisheries land approximately the same amount of fish for human consumption as industrial fleets globally, methods of estimating their fishing effort are comparatively poor. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the effort of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimated, in even the most data-poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We illustrate the method using a small-scale fisheries case study from the Gulf of California, Mexico, and show that our measure of Predicted Fishing Effort (PFE), measured as the number of boats operating in a given area per day adjusted by the number of people in local coastal populations, can accurately predict fisheries landings in the Gulf. Comparing our values of PFE to commercial fishery landings throughout the Gulf also indicates that the current number of small-scale fishing boats in the Gulf is approximately double what is required to land theoretical maximum fish biomass. Our method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This new method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing effort of small-scale fleets globally.

Asymmetric connectivity of spawning aggregations of a commercially important marine fish using a multidisciplinary approach.

Understanding patterns of larval dispersal is key in determining whether no-take marine reserves are self-sustaining, what will be protected inside reserves and where the benefits of reserves will be observed. We followed a multidisciplinary approach that merged detailed descriptions of fishing zones and spawning time at 17 sites distributed in the Midriff Island region of the Gulf of California with a biophysical oceanographic model that simulated larval transport at Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) 14, 21 and 28 days for the most common and targeted predatory reef fish, (leopard grouper Mycteroperca rosacea). We tested the hypothesis that source-sink larval metapopulation dynamics describing the direction and frequency of larval dispersal according to an oceanographic model can help to explain empirical genetic data. We described modeled metapopulation dynamics using graph theory and employed empirical sequence data from a subset of 11 sites at two mitochondrial genes to verify the model predictions based on patterns of genetic diversity within sites and genetic structure between sites. We employed a population graph describing a network of genetic relationships among sites and contrasted it against modeled networks. While our results failed to explain genetic diversity within sites, they confirmed that ocean models summarized via graph and adjacency distances over modeled networks can explain seemingly chaotic patterns of genetic structure between sites. Empirical and modeled networks showed significant similarities in the clustering coefficients of each site and adjacency matrices between sites. Most of the connectivity patterns observed towards downstream sites (Sonora coast) were strictly asymmetric, while those between upstream sites (Baja and the Midriffs) were symmetric. The best-supported gene flow model and analyses of modularity of the modeled networks confirmed a pulse of larvae from the Baja Peninsula, across the Midriff Island region and towards the Sonoran coastline that acts like a larval sink, in agreement with the cyclonic gyre (anti-clockwise) present at the peak of spawning (May-June). Our approach provided a mechanistic explanation of the location of fishing zones: most of the largest areas where fishing takes place seem to be sustained simultaneously by high levels of local retention, contribution of larvae from upstream sites and oceanographic patterns that concentrate larval density from all over the region. The general asymmetry in marine connectivity observed highlights that benefits from reserves are biased towards particular directions, that no-take areas need to be located upstream of targeted fishing zones, and that some fishing localities might not directly benefit from avoiding fishing within reserves located adjacent to their communities. We discuss the implications of marine connectivity for the current network of marine protected areas and no-take zones, and identify ways of improving it.