The Sapienza count-down for a healthy and sustainable diet.

Abstract: The prevalence of obesity and of other non-communicable diseases related to overnutrition is significantly increasing in the past few years. Policy makers are called to counteract this pandemic, orienting consumers towards a healthier and more sustainable diet. Most of the proposed initiatives are dedicated to the content of nutrients with "unfavourable" effects but, in fact, focusing the attention only or mainly on single foods or nutrients is not effective in decreasing the incidence/prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Whole dietary patterns play by far a more important role than specific dietary components in promoting health and modulating survival; and the adherence to eating patterns like the Mediterranean diet reduces the risk of non-communicable diseases. The challenge is therefore to be able to transmit information relating to a healthy eating pattern through positive messages in a few simple indications which in turn represent the nutritional, but also the socio-cultural, environmental and economic characteristics of a healthy and sustainable dietary model. The Mediterranean Diet is normally proposed through a graphic depiction that represents a pyramid which is a simple and effective representation but not of immediate impact. For this reason, we are proposing to adopt the "Sapienza Count-down for a Healthy and Sustainable Diet" that will integrate the pyramid with a more immediate approach.

Development of a Defined Approach for Eye hazard identification of chemicals having surfactant properties according to the three UN GHS categories.

The purpose of this study was to develop a defined approach (DA) for eye hazard identification according to the three UN GHS categories for surfactants (DASF). The DASF is based on a combination of Reconstructed human Cornea-like Epithelium test methods (OECD TG 492; EpiOcular™ EIT and SkinEthic™ HCE EIT) and the modified Short Time Exposure (STE) test method (0.5% concentration of the test substance after a 5-min exposure). DASF performance was assessed by comparing the prediction results with the historical in vivo data classification and against the criteria established by the OECD expert group on eye/skin. The DASF yielded a balanced accuracy of 80.5% and 90.9% of Cat. 1 (N = 22), 75.0% of Cat. 2 (N = 8), and 75.5% of No Cat. (N = 17) surfactants were correctly predicted. The percentage of mispredictions was below the established maximum values except for in vivo No Cat. surfactants that were over-predicted as Cat. 1 (5.6%, N = 17), with a maximum value set at 5%. The percentage of correct predictions did meet the minimum performance values of 75% Cat. 1, 50% Cat. 2, and 70% No Cat. established by the OECD experts. The DASF has shown to be successful for eye hazard identification of surfactants.

Evolution of spray and aerosol from respiratory releases: theoretical estimates for insight on viral transmission.

By modelling the evaporation and settling of droplets emitted during respiratory releases and using previous measurements of droplet size distributions and SARS-CoV-2 viral load, estimates of the evolution of the liquid mass and the number of viral copies suspended were performed as a function of time from the release. The settling times of a droplet cloud and its suspended viral dose are significantly affected by the droplet composition. The aerosol (defined as droplets smaller than 5 µm) resulting from 30 s of continued speech has O(1 h) settling time and a viable viral dose an order-of-magnitude higher than in a short cough. The time-of-flight to reach 2 m is only a few seconds resulting in a viral dose above the minimum required for infection, implying that physical distancing in the absence of ventilation is not sufficient to provide safety for long exposure times. The suspended aerosol emitted by continuous speaking for 1 h in a poorly ventilated room gives 0.1-11% infection risk for initial viral loads of 10 8 - 10 10 copies ml l - l , respectively, decreasing to 0.03-3% for 10 air changes per hour by ventilation. The present results provide quantitative estimates useful for the development of physical distancing and ventilation controls.

Larval ascaridoid nematodes in horned and musky octopus (Eledone cirrhosa and E. moschata) and longfin inshore squid (Doryteuthis pealeii): Safety and quality implications for cephalopod products sold as fresh on the Italian market.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence, infection level and distribution of ascaridoid larvae in cephalopod products sold in Italy. Data on the species most commonly commercialized as whole and fresh on the Italian market were collected. After comparing commercial and literature data, Eledone spp., comprising E. cirrhosa and E. moschata (horned octopus and musky octopus, respectively) and Doryteuthis pealeii (longfin inshore squid) were selected, as they had been rarely investigated. Overall, 75 Eledone spp. caught in the Mediterranean Sea (FAO area 37) and 70 D. pealeii from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (FAO area 21) were examined by visual inspection and artificial digestion (viscera and mantle separately). Parasites were submitted to morphological and molecular analysis. Prevalence (P), mean intensity (MI) and mean abundance (MA) were calculated. In D. pealeii, 2 nematode larvae molecularly identified as Anisakis simplex s.s. were found in the viscera and in the mantle of two specimens (P: 2.9% 95% CI: 0-6.8%; MI: 1; MA: 0.028). In Eledone spp. 9 nematode larvae molecularly attributed to Hysterothylacium spp. were found in the mantle of 5 specimens (P: 6.7% 95% CI: 1-12.3%; MI: 1.8; MA: 0.12). This is the first report of A. simplex s.s. in D. pealeii. Considering the zoonotic and allergenic potential of these larvae and their localization also in the edible part (mantle), a potential public health issue exists.

Prevalence of dysphagia in a consecutive cohort of subjects with MS using fibre-optic endoscopy.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) refers to chronic inflammation of the central nervous system including the brain and spinal cord. Dysphagia is a symptom that represents challenges in clinical practice. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prevalence of dysphagia in an Italian cohort of subjects with MS using the Dysphagia Outcome Severity Score (DOSS), based on fibre-optic endoscopy, and determine factors that correlate with the presence of swallowing problems. MATHERIALS AND METHODS: Data were collected in a multicentre study from a consecutive sample of MS patients, irrespective of self-reported dysphagia. The study included 215 subjects. Possible scores for DOSS range from 7 to 1, with 7 indicating normal swallowing. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-four (57.7%) subjects demonstrated abnormal swallowing and 57 (26.5%) of these had swallowing problems that required nutrition/diet modifications when evaluated objectively with fibre-optic endoscopy. Subjects with dysphagia were more severely disabled and more often had a progressive form of MS, compared to MS subjects with normal swallowing. In subjects with EDSS, < 4, 8 (13.3%), had a DOSS < 4. Seventy-five percent of subjects older than 60 years of age had dysphagia. CONCLUSION: In this sample of MS patients, more nearly 60% showed swallowing problems.

Radiofrequency echographic multispectrometry compared with dual X-ray absorptiometry for osteoporosis diagnosis on lumbar spine and femoral neck.

An innovative, non-ionizing technique to diagnose osteoporosis on lumbar spine and femoral neck was evaluated through a multicenter study involving 1914 women. The proposed method showed significant agreement with reference gold standard method and, therefore, a potential for early osteoporosis diagnoses and possibly improved patient management. INTRODUCTION: To assess precision (i.e., short term intra-operator precision) and diagnostic accuracy of an innovative non-ionizing technique, REMS (Radiofrequency Echographic Multi Spectrometry), in comparison with the clinical gold standard reference DXA (dual X-ray absorptiometry), through an observational multicenter clinical study. METHODS: In a multicenter cross-sectional observational study, a total of 1914 postmenopausal women (51-70 years) underwent spinal (n = 1553) and/or femoral (n = 1637) DXA, according to their medical prescription, and echographic scan of the same anatomical sites performed with the REMS approach. All the medical reports (DXA and REMS) were carefully checked to identify possible errors that could have caused inaccurate measurements: erroneous REMS reports were excluded, whereas erroneous DXA reports were re-analyzed where possible and otherwise excluded before assessing REMS accuracy. REMS precision was independently assessed. RESULTS: In the spinal group, quality assessment on medical reports produced the exclusion of 280 patients because of REMS errors and 78 patients because of DXA errors, whereas 296 DXA reports were re-analyzed and corrected. Analogously, in the femoral group there were 205 exclusions for REMS errors, 59 exclusions for DXA errors, and 217 re-analyzed DXA reports. In the resulting dataset (n = 1195 for spine, n = 1373 for femur) REMS outcome showed a good agreement with DXA: the average difference in bone mineral density (BMD, bias ± 2SD) was -0.004 ± 0.088 g/cm2 for spine and - 0.006 ± 0.076 g/cm2 for femur. Linear regression showed also that the two methods were well correlated: standard error of the estimate (SEE) was 5.3% for spine and 5.8% for femur. REMS precision, expressed as RMS-CV, was 0.38% for spine and 0.32% for femur. CONCLUSIONS: The REMS approach can be used for non-ionizing osteoporosis diagnosis directly on lumbar spine and femoral neck with a good level of accuracy and precision. However, a more rigorous operator training is needed to limit the erroneous acquisitions and to ensure the full clinical practicability.

Effortless creation of safe robots from modules through self-programming and self-verification.

Industrial robots cannot be reconfigured to optimally fulfill a given task and often have to be caged to guarantee human safety. Consequently, production processes are meticulously planned so that they last for long periods to make automation affordable. However, the ongoing trend toward mass customization and small-scale manufacturing requires purchasing new robots on a regular basis to cope with frequently changing production. Modular robots are a natural answer: Robots composed of standardized modules can be easily reassembled for new tasks, can be quickly repaired by exchanging broken modules, and are cost-effective by mass-producing standard modules usable for a large variety of robot types. Despite these advantages, modular robots have not yet left research laboratories because an expert must reprogram each new robot after assembly, rendering reassembly impractical. This work presents our set of interconnectable modules (IMPROV), which programs and verifies the safety of assembled robots themselves. Experiments show that IMPROV robots retained the same control performance as nonmodular robots, despite their reconfigurability. With respect to human-robot coexistence, our user study shows a reduction of robot idle time by 36% without compromising on safety using our self-verification concept compared with current safety standards. We believe that by using self-programming and self-verification, modular robots can transform current automation practices.

Determinantes de relaciones jerárquicas de género en el ejercicio de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos en personas de diversos géneros autopercibidos / Determinants of hierarchical gender relations in the exercise of sexual and reproductive rights in people of different self-perceived genders

INTRODUCCIÓN En Argentina existen numerosos indicadores que reflejan el modo en que la cultura de subordinación de la mujer impacta sobre el ejercicio de sus derechos sexuales y reproductivos. Estos son reconocidos como derechos humanos esenciales. Sin embargo, su mera existencia no garantiza el ejercicio. OBJETIVOS Reconocer los determinantes socioculturales que influyen en las relaciones jerárquicas de género e intervienen en la expresión de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos, repercutiendo en la percepción de la calidad de vida de la salud sexual y reproductiva en las personas del barrio el Porteño de la ciudad de Chascomús, provincia de Buenos Aires, en el período comprendido entre mayo de 2015 y mayo de 2016. MÉTODOS Se realizó una investigación cuanti-cualitativa, descriptiva e interpretativa de género de corte trasversal. El diseño cualitativo se basó en la perspectiva de género emergente de la teoría fundamentada transversal, y el diseño cuantitativo estuvo relacionado con un estudio descriptivo de corte transversal. Se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad y grupos focales (n=98). RESULTADOS Como determinantes de las relaciones jerárquicas de género se encontraron los roles preestablecidos, que desde la pertenencia y propiedad del otro y la invisibilización y supresión del ser legitiman su existencia: el 84,6% de las personas entrevistadas refirió haber tenido relaciones sexuales sin deseo: "Él es mi marido, y yo tengo que atenderlo". Sólo en los grupos focales surgió la emancipación ante los roles preestablecidos de género "Es necesario romper con todo eso que nos dice qué hacer, si tener o no relaciones sexuales y cuándo y con quién". DISCUSIÓN Es preciso considerar las determinaciones sociales, políticas y culturales que subyacen a los roles preestablecidos de género. Los espacios de reflexión grupal adoptan un carácter emancipatorio frente a la normatividad del género, tienden a desnaturalizar sus vínculos asimétricos y promueven la apropiación de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos.

Are Dietary Supplements and Nutraceuticals Effective for Musculoskeletal Health and Cognitive Function? A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of our scoping review was to summarize the state of the art regarding micronutrients in order to identify which of them might effectively improve health status in the areas typically impaired in older people: bone, skeletal muscle, and cognitive function. DESIGN: Scoping review. METHODS: The Italian Study Group on Healthy Aging by Nutraceuticals and Dietary Supplements (HANDS) performed this scoping review, based on the following steps: doing a list of micronutrients related with musculoskeletal or cognitive functions, included in dietary supplements and nutraceuticals commercialized in Italy; planning a research on PubMed, according to an evidence-based approach, in order to the most relevant positive study for each micronutrient into each of the three areas involved (bone, skeletal muscle and cognitive function); identifying the micronutrients effective in maintaining or achieving an adequate health status in older people, specifying the effective and safe daily doses, according to the selected studies. RESULTS: In literature we found 12 relevant positive studies (1 international society guidelines/recommendations, 1 systematic review, 7 randomized controlled trials, and 3 prospective cohort studies). We showed that only 16 micronutrients resulted to have appropriate scientific evidences in terms of improving musculoskeletal health and/or cognitive function in older people: beta-alanine, calcium, creatine, fluorides, leucine, magnesium, omega-3 fatty acids, potassium, vitamin B6, vitamin B9, vitamin B12, vitamin C, vitamin D, vitamin E, vitamin K2, and zinc. CONCLUSION: This scoping review showed that selected micronutrients in adequate doses might have an ancillary role in musculoskeletal health and cognitive functions in older people.

Guidelines for the diagnosis, prevention and management of osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis poses a significant public health issue. National Societies have developed Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of this disorder with an effort of adapting specific tools for risk assessment on the peculiar characteristics of a given population. The Italian Society for Osteoporosis, Mineral Metabolism and Bone Diseases (SIOMMMS) has recently revised the previously published Guidelines on the diagnosis, riskassessment, prevention and management of primary and secondary osteoporosis. The guidelines were first drafted by a working group and then approved by the board of SIOMMMS. Subsequently they received also the endorsement of other major Scientific Societies that deal with bone metabolic disease. These recommendations are based on systematic reviews of the best available evidence and explicit consideration of cost effectiveness. When minimal evidence is available, recommendations are based on leading experts' experience and opinion, and on good clinical practice. The osteoporosis prevention should be based on the elimination of specific risk factors. The use of drugs registered for the treatment of osteoporosis are recommended when the benefits overcome the risk, and this is the case only when the risk of fracture is rather high as measured with variables susceptible to pharmacological effect. DeFRA (FRAX® derived fracture risk assessment) is recognized as a useful tool for easily estimate the long-term fracture risk. Several secondary forms of osteoporosis require a specific diagnostic and therapeutic management.

Male osteoporosis.

As a result of population ageing worldwide, osteoporotic fractures are becoming a serious problem in the western world. Osteoporotic fractures are associated with a significant burden in terms of morbidity, mortality, and economic costs. Although less frequent than in women, male osteoporosis is also a relatively common problem. Since bone loss and fragility fractures in men have been recognized as a serious medical condition, over the last two decades several studies have investigated a number of aspects related to the pathogenesis, diagnosis and assessment, prevention and treatment of male osteoporosis. A better understanding of factors underlying increased bone fragility in men has led to the definition of appropriate screening and diagnostic strategies, and the development of treatments that have shown to improve bone mineral density and, in some cases, reduce fracture risk in men as well as in women. This review will summarize recent findings on male osteoporosis with a particular focus on risk factors and causes of bone loss, and available therapeutic options.

Safety profile of drugs used in the treatment of osteoporosis: a systematical review of the literature.

The range of osteoporosis treatments is increasingly large and, like any disease, the pharmacological management of patients should involve a risk/benefit evaluation to attain the greatest reduction in risk of fracture with the lowest incidence of adverse events. The aim of this review is to critically appraise the literature about the safety issues of the main pharmacological treatments of osteoporosis. This document is the result of a consensus of experts based on a systematic review of regulatory documents, randomized controlled trials, metaanalyses, pharmacovigilance surveys and case series related to possible adverse drug reactions to osteoporosis treatment with calcium and vitamin D supplements, bisphosphonates, strontium ranelate, selective estrogen receptor modulators, denosumab, and teriparatide. As expected, randomized controlled trials showed only the most common adverse events due to the samples size and the short observation time. Case series and observational studies are able to provide data about uncommon side effects, but in some cases a sure cause-effect relationship needs still to be confirmed. Consistently with methodological limitations, the newer drugs have a tolerance profile that has not been fully explored yet. Osteoporosis treatments showed an overall good tolerance profile with rare serious adverse events that, however, must be well known by the clinician who prescribes these drugs. The concern about possible adverse events should be weighed against the reduction of morbidity and mortality associated with a significant fracture risk reduction.

A Bayesian network model for predicting pregnancy after in vitro fertilization.

We present a Bayesian network model for predicting the outcome of in vitro fertilization (IVF). The problem is characterized by a particular missingness process; we propose a simple but effective averaging approach which improves parameter estimates compared to the traditional MAP estimation. We present results with generated data and the analysis of a real data set. Moreover, we assess by means of a simulation study the effectiveness of the model in supporting the selection of the embryos to be transferred.

Identifying a standard set of outcome parameters for the evaluation of orthogeriatric co-management for hip fractures.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Osteoporotic fractures are an increasing problem in the world due to the ageing of the population. Different models of orthogeriatric co-management are currently in use worldwide. These models differ for instance by the health-care professional who has the responsibility for care in the acute and early rehabilitation phases. There is no international consensus regarding the best model of care and which outcome parameters should be used to evaluate these models. The goal of this project was to identify which outcome parameters and assessment tools should be used to measure and compare outcome changes that can be made by the implementation of orthogeriatric co-management models and to develop recommendations about how and when these outcome parameters should be measured. It was not the purpose of this study to describe items that might have an impact on the outcome but cannot be influenced such as age, co-morbidities and cognitive impairment at admission. METHODS: Based on a review of the literature on existing orthogeriatric co-management evaluation studies, 14 outcome parameters were evaluated and discussed in a 2-day meeting with panellists. These panellists were selected based on research and/or clinical expertise in hip fracture management and a common interest in measuring outcome in hip fracture care. RESULTS: We defined 12 objective and subjective outcome parameters and how they should be measured: mortality, length of stay, time to surgery, complications, re-admission rate, mobility, quality of life, pain, activities of daily living, medication use, place of residence and costs. We could not recommend an appropriate tool to measure patients' satisfaction and falls. We defined the time points at which these outcome parameters should be collected to be at admission and discharge, 30 days, 90 days and 1 year after admission. CONCLUSION: Twelve objective and patient-reported outcome parameters were selected to form a standard set for the measurement of influenceable outcome of patients treated in different models of orthogeriatric co-managed care.

Objective way to support embryo transfer: a probabilistic decision.

STUDY QUESTION: Is it feasible to identify factors that significantly affect the clinical outcome of IVF-ICSI cycles and use them to reliably design a predictor of implantation? SUMMARY ANSWER: The Bayesian network (BN) identified top-history embryos, female age and the insemination technique as the most relevant factors for predicting the occurrence of pregnancy (AUC, area under curve, of 0.72). In addition, it could discriminate between no implantation and single or twin implantations in a prognostic model that can be used prospectively. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The key requirement for achieving a single live birth in an IVF-ICSI cycle is the capacity to estimate embryo viability in relation to maternal receptivity. Nevertheless, the lack of a strong predictor imposes several restrictions on this strategy. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Medical histories, laboratory data and clinical outcomes of all fresh transfer cycles performed at the International Institute for Reproductive Medicine of Lugano, Switzerland, in the period 2006-2008 (n = 388 cycles), were retrospectively evaluated and analyzed. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Patients were unselected for age, sperm parameters or other infertility criteria. Before being admitted to treatment, uterine anomalies were excluded by diagnostic hysteroscopy. To evaluate the factors possibly related to embryo viability and maternal receptivity, the class variable was categorized as pregnancy versus no pregnancy and the features included: female age, number of previous cycles, insemination technique, sperm of proven fertility, the number of transferred top-history embryos, the number of transferred top-quality embryos, the number of follicles >14 mm and the level of estradiol on the day of HCG administration. To assess the classifier, the indicators of performance were computed by cross-validation. Two statistical models were used: the decision tree and the BN. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHOICE: The decision tree identified the number of transferred top-history embryos, female age and the insemination technique as the features discriminating between pregnancy and no pregnancy. The model achieved an accuracy of 81.5% that was significantly higher in comparison with the trivial classifier, but the increase was so modest that the model was clinically useless for predictions of pregnancy. The BN could more reliably predict the occurrence of pregnancy with an AUC of 0.72, and confirmed the importance of top-history embryos, female age and insemination technique in determining implantation. In addition, it could discriminate between no implantation, single implantation and twin implantation with the AUC of 0.72, 0.64 and 0.83, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The relatively small sample of the study did not permit the inclusion of more features that could also have a role in determining the clinical outcome. The design of this study was retrospective to identify the relevant features; a prospective study is now needed to verify the validity of the model. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The resulting predictive model can discriminate with reasonable reliability between pregnancy and no pregnancy, and can also predict the occurrence of a single pregnancy or multiple pregnancy. This could represent an effective support for deciding how many embryos and which embryos to transfer for each couple. Due to its flexibility, the number of variables in the predictor can easily be increased to include other features that may affect implantation. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was supported by a grant, CTI Medtech Project Number: 9707.1 PFLS-L, Swiss Confederation. No competing interests are declared.

Mediterranean diet pyramids: towards the Italian model.

There is a long history to the representation of the Mediterranean Diet Pyramid which may be seen as a form of cultural--culinary evolution as each country applies the foods best suited to its national diet. Different Mediterranean Diet pyramids have been designed for the population of Greece, Spain and Italy, tailored for their different food habits. These refer variously to portion sizes and frequency of consumption--daily, weekly and monthly and are not standardized. The 3rd CIISCAM Conference held in Parma, Italy was devoted to highlight the overall biodiversity and nutritional well being values and the sustainable benefits of the Mediterranean diet, recognised as one of the healthiest dietary pattern, and to reduce the rapid erosion of "lifestyle and food habits. It is necessary, therefore, to refer more to a Mediterranean Lifestyle of which diet is only a part. It should include physical and social activity, recreation and rest. It may be possible to construct a Mediterranean food lifestyle index both to assess such a holistic aspect and to correlate with improved morbidity & mortality.

Computer tailored nutrition education: Mediterranean diet.

Goal of this work is to promote via on-line applications the knowledge of the Italian Weekly Pyramid, which is based on the concept of WI (Well Being Index) as a unit for a correct lifestyle. On the website www.piramideitaliana.it the user can verify his/her weekly lifestyle by participating in a "game" based on the introduction, for seven consecutive days, of food and beverages consumption and time assigned to physical activity. At the end of the seven days it is possible to access the page with an evaluation of dietary habits together with the possible suggestions for a correct lifestyle. On the basis of the data collected through this web game, a statistical analysis has been developed to evaluate the food habits and the level of physical activity. In the period between September 2005-January 2010 16,546 participants have completed the game. The data collected compare actual WI consumption for each food group with the one suggested by the Pyramid. The sample eating pattern appears almost varied; all the food groups were consumed daily, albeit in much lower quantities with regard to the suggested portions. It is pointed out that some differences in the nutritional habits are related to differences in age groups and in the school degree of the sample analyzed. This work highlights the importance of web-based tailored interventions on population food habits: many people can be reached to promote the knowledge of the guidelines leading to a healthy lifestyle.

Uses and misuses of statistics: the case of strontium ranelate and the number needed to treat.

In the last 15 years, several pharmacological agents for the prevention of fractures have been developed and commercialized. Most of them showed to be effective in reducing fracture risk. The enhanced availability of drugs to prevent fractures has generated a fierce competition among pharmaceutical companies to conquer a share of the potential market, often with claims of superiority of a drug over another without direct comparisons. The definitive way to compare different treatments would require randomized head to head trials. These trials are expensive, need large samples and are unlikely to be ever performed. Therefore, it has become a common practice to compare pharmacological agents through observational studies on administrative databases or by the indirect comparison of the results of individual randomised-controlled trials (RCT) and their meta-analyses. These studies may produce evidence of clinical value, complementary to that given by RCT. However, without a proper and complete analysis, they may result in a biased picture of effectiveness and be completely misleading. In this article, we critically disclose how such competition may produce biased and misleading picture of evidence, by reviewing the significance of the number needed to treat, absolute risk reduction and relative risk reduction in relation to vertebral fractures prevention with available drugs.

Assessment of the 10-year risk of fracture in Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®: a north Italian multicenter study.

The aim of the study was to estimate the absolute risk of fracture in a sample of postmenopausal women with the Italian version of FRAX®, using femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and 3 internationally validated clinical risk factors (CRFs) (history of fragility fracture, family history of hip fracture, current smoking). We retrospectively studied 9586 women (mean age 64.1 yr) examined in three osteoporosis centers from Northern Italy over two years (2001-2002). The risk of major osteoporotic (clinical spine, hip, forearm and humerus) and hip fractures was estimated using the online version of the FRAX algorithm adapted for Italy. The median 10-year risk was 7.5% for osteoporotic fracture and 1.7% for hip fracture. 25% of subjects had a 10-year risk ≥ 12.1% for osteoporotic fracture and ≥ 4.1% for hip fracture. The median 10-year risk of fracture increased with the number of prevalent CRFs. For major osteoporotic fractures risk rose from 6.3% to 10.9%, 21.4% and 40.9% with 1, 2 and 3 prevalent CRFs, respectively. For hip fractures the corresponding figures were: 1.3%, 2.7%, 7.0% and 21.9%, respectively. However, it must be emphasized that in 2 out of 3 women, none of the CRFs examined was present and the assessment of risk was limited to age and BMD. Our data provide the first description of the effect of the combination of BMD, age and CRFs on fracture risk stratification in a large sample of Italian postmenopausal women using FRAX®. The results are a useful starting point to define criteria for the application of FRAX® in clinical practice in Italy.