Application of Fuzzy Composite Programming in a Questionnaire as a Methodological Test to Study the Effect of Reservoir Management on Social Interests-A Survey Based on Two Case Studies in Southern Germany.

To understand the concerns, approvals and disapprovals of expert opinions about managerial issues from around reservoirs this study uses the approach of Fuzzy Composite Programming (FCP) in direct questionnaires to parameterize and rate a set of indicators with statements about managerial issues concerning societal implications by the responding experts. The personal ratings get summarized in four different layers and converted into one final numerical value which will be in the range of 0 as the absolute disapproval of the indicators and 1 as the absolute approval of the indicators. The FCP approach thereby rates the individual indicator, secondly the indicator category, thirdly the compensational factor and fourthly the dimensions of sustainability. This facilitates a rapid comparison of results of rather complicated sets of pre-set indicators in topics reaching from legal issues to societal concerns in one final numerical value to identify crucial topics and start open debates. This study was carried out as a methodological test at two water reservoirs in southern Germany. The results show a general possibility of using a rather retrospect methodology towards current ratings of experts in the field of reservoir management. 10 respondents answered the FCP questionnaires, 5 at each study site. The scores of the calculation showed a higher level of positive connection in the case of the Schwarzenbachtalsperre (SBT) with a score of 0.77, compared to a score of 0.54 in the case of the Franconian Lake District (FLD). Apart from the pure numerical scores, FCP can show conflicting issues and possible compromise solutions between the different stakeholders, in/based on the individual ratings. The findings could help reach a more sustainable management of water resources that includes all stakeholders, by pointing out debatable implications.

Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and Climatological Conditions.

Background: Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. Methods: We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher's Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. Results: The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). Conclusions: Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.

Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Women's dietary diversity scores and childhood anthropometric measurements as indices of nutrition insecurity along the urban-rural continuum in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is still prevalent worldwide, and its severity, which differs between regions and countries, has led to international organisations proposing its inclusion in the global development framework that will succeed the Millennium Development Goals (post-2015 framework). In Sub-Saharan Africa, malnutrition is particularly severe, among women and children under 5 years. The prevalence of malnutrition has been reported worldwide, differing from region to region and country to country. Nevertheless, little is known about how malnutrition differs between multiple locations along an urban-rural continuum. OBJECTIVE: A survey was carried out in and around Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, between August and September 2014 to map household nutrition insecurity along the urban-rural continuum, using a transect approach to guide the data collection. DESIGN: Transects of 70 km long and 2 km wide directed radially from the city centre outwards were laid, and data were collected from randomly selected households along these transects. Women's dietary diversity scores (WDDSs) were calculated from a sample of 179 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from randomly selected households. Additionally, anthropometric data (height/length and weight) of 133 children under 5 years of age were collected along the same transects for the computation of anthropometric indices. RESULTS: We found that relative proportions of the nutrition indices such as stunting, wasting and underweight varied across the urban-rural continuum. Rural households (15%) had the highest relative proportion of WDDS compared with urban households (11%) and periurban households (8%). There was a significant association between children under 5 years' nutritional status (wasting, stunting and underweight) and spatial location (p=0.023). The level of agricultural activities is a possible indicator of wasting in children aged 6-59 months (p=0.032). CONCLUSION: Childhood undernutrition certainly has a spatial dimension that is highly influenced by the degree of urbanity, which should be taken into consideration in policy formulation and implementation.

Impacts of land cover changes on climate trends in Jiangxi province China.

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is an important climatic force, and is also affected by climate change. In the present study, we aimed to assess the regional scale impact of LULC on climate change using Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. To obtain reliable climate trends, we applied the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) to surface air temperature and precipitation data for the period 1951-1999. We also compared the temperature trends computed from Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) datasets and from our analysis. To examine the regional impacts of land surface types on surface air temperature and precipitation change integrating regional topography, we used the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. Precipitation series were found to be homogeneous. Comparison of GHCN and our analysis on adjusted temperatures indicated that the resulting climate trends varied slightly from dataset to dataset. OMR trends associated with surface vegetation types revealed a strong surface warming response to land barrenness and weak warming response to land greenness. A total of 81.1% of the surface warming over vegetation index areas (0-0.2) was attributed to surface vegetation type change and regional topography. The contribution of surface vegetation type change decreases as land cover greenness increases. The OMR precipitation trend has a weak dependence on surface vegetation type change. We suggest that LULC integrating regional topography should be considered as a force in regional climate modeling.

Spatial distribution of, and risk factors for, Opisthorchis viverrini infection in southern Lao PDR.

BACKGROUND: Opisthorchis viverrini is a food-borne trematode species that might give rise to biliary diseases and the fatal cholangiocarcinoma. In Lao PDR, an estimated 2.5 million individuals are infected with O. viverrini, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of infection remains to be determined. Our aim was to map the distribution of O. viverrini in southern Lao PDR, identify underlying risk factors, and predict the prevalence of O. viverrini at non-surveyed locations. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire survey was carried out in 51 villages in Champasack province in the first half of 2007. Data on demography, socioeconomic status, water supply, sanitation, and behavior were combined with remotely sensed environmental data and fed into a geographical information system. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to identify risk factors and to investigate the spatial pattern of O. viverrini infection. Bayesian kriging was utilized to predict infection risk at non-surveyed locations. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prevalence of O. viverrini among 3,371 study participants with complete data records was 61.1%. Geostatistical models identified age, Lao Loum ethnic group, educational attainment, occupation (i.e., rice farmer, fisherman, and animal breeder), and unsafe drinking water source as risk factors for infection. History of praziquantel treatment, access to sanitation, and distance to freshwater bodies were found to be protective factors. Spatial patterns of O. viverrini were mainly governed by environmental factors with predictive modeling identifying two different risk profiles: low risk of O. viverrini in the mountains and high risk in the Mekong corridor. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We present the first risk map of O. viverrini infection in Champasack province, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Infection with O. viverrini appears to be strongly associated with exposure to the second intermediate host fish, human behavior and culture, whereas high transmission is sustained by the lack of sanitation.

Facilitating participatory multilevel decision-making by using interactive mental maps.

Participation of citizens in political, economic or social decisions is increasingly recognized as a precondition to foster sustainable development processes. Since spatial information is often important during planning and decision making, participatory mapping gains in popularity. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that information must be presented in a useful way to reach city planners and policy makers. Above all, the importance of visualisation tools to support collaboration, analytical reasoning, problem solving and decision-making in analysing and planning processes has been underestimated. In this paper, we describe how an interactive mental map tool has been developed in a highly interdisciplinary disaster management project in Chennai, India. We moved from a hand drawn mental maps approach to an interactive mental map tool. This was achieved by merging socio-economic and geospatial data on infrastructure, local perceptions, coping and adaptation strategies with remote sensing data and modern technology of map making. This newly developed interactive mapping tool allowed for insights into different locally-constructed realities and facilitated the communication of results to the wider public and respective policy makers. It proved to be useful in visualising information and promoting participatory decision-making processes. We argue that the tool bears potential also for health research projects. The interactive mental map can be used to spatially and temporally assess key health themes such as availability of, and accessibility to, existing health care services, breeding sites of disease vectors, collection and storage of water, waste disposal, location of public toilets or defecation sites.