EU's Ordering of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses: Political Decision-Making under Uncertainty.

Worldwide, politicians, scientists, and entrepreneurs are operating under high uncertainty and incomplete information regarding the adequacy of measures to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems indisputable that only widespread and global immunity can bring normalization to social life. In this respect, the development of a vaccine was a milestone in pandemic control. However, within the EU, especially in Germany, the vaccination plan is increasingly faltering, and criticism is growing louder. This paper considers the EU's political decision in general and the decisions of the German government to procure vaccine doses against the background of modern economics as a decision under uncertainty and critically analyzes the process.

Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management.

The COVID-19 pandemic is permanently changing modern social and economic coexistence. Most governments have declared infection control to be their top priority while citizens face great restrictions on their civil rights. A pandemic is an exemplary scenario in which political actors must decide about future, and thus uncertain, events. This paper tries to present a tool well established in the field of entrepreneurial and management decision making which could also be a first benchmark for political decisions. Our approach builds on the standard epidemiological SEIR model in combination with simulation techniques used in risk management. By our case study we want to demonstrate the opportunities that risk management techniques, especially risk analyses using Monte Carlo simulation, can provide to policy makers in general, and in a public health crisis in particular. Hence, our case study can be used as a framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty. Overall, we want to point out that a health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. This is without prejudice to the integration of ethical considerations in the final political decision.