The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge.

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Historical disconnection from floodplain alters riparian forest composition, tree growth and deadwood amount.

Riparian forests are among the most dynamic but threatened terrestrial ecosystems. Their dynamism and conservation depend on historical changes in river geomorphology, which can be evaluated through changes in channel sinuosity. However, we lack long-term assessments on sinuosity and how they impact riparian forest composition, tree growth and deadwood amount. To fill this research gap, we reconstructed river sinuosity in 14 sites across the middle Ebro basin, north-eastern Spain, using historical aerial photographs taken in 1927, 1956, 1998-2003 and 2014-2015. Relationships between sinuosity, stand composition and deadwood amount and decay degree were calculated. We also reconstructed radial growth of the major tree species (Populus alba, Populus nigra, Fraxinus angustifolia, Salix alba and Ulmus minor) in two sites to evaluate how coupled it was with changes in river flow after dam building. From 1927 to 2015, sinuosity decreased passing from 1.39 to 1.20. The river dynamics were altered in the 1950s and 1960s after dam and dyke building. Sites with high sinuosity values in 1956 corresponded to mature stands with large P. nigra individuals. Sinuosity was negatively related to F. angustifolia (rs = -0.83, p < 0.001) and P. alba (rs = -0.64, p = 0.02) abundance, whereas sites dominated by P. alba and U. minor presented abundant decayed deadwood. A loss of sinuosity and a contraction of the riverbank gradient increased disconnection of active channel from floodplain, with a mixing of more (e.g., P. nigra) and less phreatophytic species (e.g., U. minor). River flow diversion reduced growth and increased the tree-to-tree P. alba growth coherence. Hydrological droughts contributed to growth decline and dieback of U. minor, which is sensitive to spring river flow. Conservation and restoration of riparian forests must consider historical changes in river geomorphology related to human activities.

PHYSIOLOGIC PARAMETERS AND THEIR RESPONSE TO HANDLING STRESS IN A NEOTROPICAL MIGRATORY SHOREBIRD DURING THE NONBREEDING SEASON.

Physiologic traits are promising indicators of population health in the face of rapidly changing environments. We obtained values of diverse physiologic parameters for Two-banded Plovers (Charadrius falklandicus) in coastal sites in Patagonia, Argentina, with the objectives of determining the timeline in which these parameters become affected by the stress of capture and handling and of obtaining reference values for future monitoring of these populations. We analyzed packed cell volume, white blood cell profile, heterophil/lymphocyte ratio, bacterial agglutination titer, and total protein, glucose, triglyceride, and cholesterol levels in apparently healthy birds. Glucose, total white blood cell count, lymphocytes, and eosinophil levels showed changes with handling times >60 min after capture. The remaining parameters did not manifest significant alterations in response to capture and handling of up to 232 min (average=105.2, SD=56.7). Therefore, although researchers should attempt to obtain blood samples as soon as possible after capture, inclusion of physiologic parameters in monitoring studies of species not easily sampled in a few minutes, such as Two-banded Plovers and other shorebird species during migration, should not be discouraged. Here we provide a physiologic report for the species that can be considered as reference values during the nonbreeding season at Patagonian coastal sites.

Modeling the evolution of riparian woodlands facing climate change in three European rivers with contrasting flow regimes.

Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change.

Hematologic and plasma biochemistry values for endangered red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) at wintering and migratory sites in Argentina.

We obtained hematologic and plasma biochemistry values for adult, long-distance migrant Red Knots at their southernmost wintering site in Río Grande (Tierra del Fuego, Argentina) and at the first stopover site in San Antonio Oeste (Río Negro, Argentina). Lymphocytes (L) followed by heterophils (H) were the most abundant leukocytes. H/L ratio and glucose levels were significantly higher at Río Grande, possibly because of the stress of migration and molting. Packed cell volume results ranged widely, probably in response to increased oxygen demand for migration. Protein profiles and lipids were higher at the stopover site and attributable to birds storing reserves for subsequent flights.

Rapid population decline in red knots: fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay.

Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego, which undertakes marathon 30,000 km hemispheric migrations annually. In spring, migrant birds forage voraciously on horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay in the eastern USA before departing to breed in Arctic polar deserts. From 1997 to 2002 an increasing proportion of knots failed to reach threshold departure masses of 180-200 g, possibly because of later arrival in the Bay and food shortage from concurrent over-harvesting of crabs. Reduced nutrient storage, especially in late-arriving birds, possibly combined with reduced sizes of intestine and liver during refuelling, had severe fitness consequences for adult survival and recruitment of young in 2000-2002. From 1997 to 2002 known survivors in Delaware Bay were heavier at initial capture than birds never seen again, annual survival of adults decreased by 37% between May 2000 and May 2001, and the number of second-year birds in wintering flocks declined by 47%. Population size in Tierra del Fuego declined alarmingly from 51,000 to 27,000 in 2000-2002, seriously threatening the viability of this subspecies. Demographic modelling predicts imminent endangerment and an increased risk of extinction of the subspecies without urgent risk-averse management.

Castration anxiety and phobias.

Based on Freud's case study of "Little Hans," the authors tested the hypothesis that men with phobias would score higher on castration anxiety than men without phobias. College men with either average or high scores on the Fears Scale of the MMPI-2 (n = 10 men in each group) responded to the Thematic Apperception Test, which was scored for castration anxiety. Men with high scores on the Fears Scale had higher scores on castration anxiety than men with average scores on the Fears Scale. The findings are consistent with Freud's hypothesis about phobias.