Prevalence and characteristics of patients with heart failure needing palliative care.

BACKGROUND: Few hospitals and heart failure (HF) clinics offer concurrent palliative care (PC) together with life-prolonging therapies. To know the prevalence of patients in HF clinics needing PC and useful tools to recognize them are the first steps to extending PC in those settings. However, it is still unknown whether tools commonly used to identify patients with HF needing PC can correctly distinguish them. Two systematic reviews found that the NECesidades PALiativas (NECPAL) tool was one of the two most commonly used tools to asses PC needs in HF patients. Therefore, we assessed 1) the prevalence of PC needs in HF clinics according to the NECPAL tool, and 2) the characteristics of the patients identified as having PC; mainly, their quality of life (QoL), symptom burden, and psychosocial problems. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at two HF clinics in Colombia. We assessed the prevalence of PC in the overall sample and in subgroups according to clinical and demographic variables. We assessed QoL, symptom burden, and psychosocial problems using the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12), the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS). We compared the results of these tools between patients identified as having PC needs (+NECPAL) and patients identified as not having PC needs (-NECPAL). RESULTS: Among the 178 patients, 78 (44%) had PC needs. The prevalence of PC needs was twice as nigh in patients NYHA III/IV as in patients NYHA I/II and almost twice as high in patients older than 70 years as in patients younger than 70 years. Compared to -NECPAL patients, +NECPAL patients had worse QoL, more severe shortness of breath, tiredness, drowsiness, and pain, and more psychosocial problems. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of PC needs in outpatient HF clinics is high and is even higher in older patients and in patients at more advanced NYHA stages. Compared to patients identified as not having PC needs, patients identified as having PC needs have worse QoL, more severe symptoms, and greater psychosocial problems. Including a PC provider in the multidisciplinary team of HF clinics may help to assess and cover these needs.

Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo / Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14

RESUMEN Objetivo Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes -desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020- y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, según edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación: datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020 / Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures: preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020

RESUMEN Objetivo Este estudio tiene como primer objetivo: realizar predicciones del curso de la infección en el horizonte temporal desde marzo 18 a abril 18 del 2020, según diferentes medidas de aislamiento aplicadas. Las predicciones incluyen, población total contagiada, mortalidad y necesidad de recursos hospitalarios. Segundo objetivo: modelar la mortalidad y la necesidad de recursos hospitalarios, estratificando por edad el escenario de contagio del 70% de la población. Métodos Para el primer objetivo, nos basamos en el número de casos confirmados en el país hasta marzo 18, 2020 (n=93). Como suposiciones para el modelo, incluimos un índice de contagio R0=2,5 y el índice de casos reales por cada caso confirmado. Para la proporción de pacientes que necesitarían cuidados intensivos u otros cuidados intrahospitalarios, nos basamos en datos aportados por el Imperial College of London. Para el segundo objetivo usamos como tasa de mortalidad por edad, datos aportados por el Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Resultados Basándonos en los 93 casos reportados al 18 de marzo, si no se aplicase ninguna medida de mitigación, para el 18 de abril el país tendría un total de 613 037 casos. Medidas de mitigación que reduzcan el R0 en un 10%, generan una reducción del 50% del número de casos. Sin embargo, a pesar de reducirse los casos a la mitad, todavía habría un déficit en el número de camas requeridas y sólo uno de cada dos pacientes tendría acceso a dicho recurso. Conclusión En nuestro modelo encontramos que las medidas de mitigación que han sido implementadas hasta la fecha por el gobierno colombiano, se fundamentan en evidencia suficiente para pensar que es posible reducir significativamente el número de casos contagiados y con esto, el número de pacientes que requerirán manejo hospitalario.(AU)

ABSTRACT Introduction First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. Objectives The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. Materials and Methods Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. Results Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. Conclusion This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.(AU)

[Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures. Preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020]. / Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación. Datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020.

INTRODUCTION: First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. OBJECTIVES: The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. RESULTS: Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. CONCLUSION: This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.

[Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14]. / Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo.

OBJETIVE: To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. METHODS: We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. RESULTS: If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. CONCLUSION: Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evaluación de resultados en una serie de pacientes con reparación de aneurimas aórticos mediante endoprótesis fenestradas / Evaluation of results in a series of patients with repair of aortic aneurims by fenestrated graft stent

Resumen Introducción: el aneurisma de aorta tiene una prevalencia de 5,7%; sin tratamiento su desenlace final es la ruptura y en ocasiones la muerte. En la actualidad, existe el reparo endovascular mediante prótesis fenestradas para pacientes en quienes es inviable el procedimiento quirúrgico. Están diseñadas para adaptarse a la anatomía única de cada paciente y dan cabida al flujo de uno o más vasos viscerales logrando resultados satisfactorios. Objetivo: reportar una serie de casos de pacientes con aneurismas de aorta tratados mediante endoprótesis fenestradas en un centro de referencia cardiovascular de Medellín, Colombia, entre 2013 y 2017. Método: estudio descriptivo, restrospectivo, de una serie de casos, cuya información se obtuvo por medio de una fuente secundaria. Resultados: los resultados se presentaron como porcentajes y frecuencias. Se utilizó el programa SPSS versión 20.0. La mayoría de los pacientes fueron hombres, con promedio de edad de 69,5 ±7,9 años. La mediana del diámetro aneurismático fue de 6,0 cm (RIQ 5,0-8,25). La mayoría de las complicaciones fueron vasculares. El 80,0% de los pacientes tuvieron algún seguimiento radiológico al mes, 6 meses o a los 12 meses después de la intervención; el 100,0% requirió revascularización del o los vasos intervenidos. Conclusiones: se considera que el balance adecuado entre riesgos y beneficios que otorga la técnica hace que, para el grupo específico de pacientes cuyas características clínicas y anatómicas hacen poco factible la cirugía, el uso de las prótesis fenestradas sea seguro y tenga resultados clínicos y de supervivencia similares al compararse con la literatura.

Abstract Introduction: Aortic aneurysm has a prevalence of 5.7%. Its final outcome without is a rupture, and occasionally death. Endovascular repair can currently be carried out using a fenestrated stent graft in patients in whom a surgical procedure is not feasible. These grafts are designed to adapt to the unique anatomy of each patient, and makes room for one or more visceral vessels to flow, achieving satisfactory results. Objective: To report a case series of patients with aortic aneurysms treated with a fenestrated stent graft between 2013 and 2017 in a cardiovascular reference centre in Medellín, Colombia. Method: A descriptive, retrospective study was conducted on a case series, in which the information was obtained for a secondary source. The results are presented as percentages and frequencies. The statistics program SPSS version 20.00 was used. Results: The majority of patients were male, and the mean age was 69.5 ±7.9 years. The median aneurysm diameter was 6.0 cm (IQR 5.0-8.25). The majority of complications were vascular. Some type of radiological follow-up was carried out on 80% of the patients at one month, 6 months, and 12 months after the intervention. All of them (100%) required revascularisation of the vessels intervened. Conclusions: The risk-benefit ratio is considered adequate for this technique. It means that, for the specific group of patients that have clinical and anatomical characteristics that make surgery highly unlikely, the use of fenestrated stent grafts are safe, and have similar clinical and survival results when compared with the literature.

Trombectomía mecánica en pacientes con ataque cerebrovascular isquémico: serie de casos en un centro de referencia colombiano / Mechanical Thrombectomy in patients with isquemic stroke: Case series in a Colombian reference center

RESUMEN OBJETIVO: Este artículo describe las características clínicas, indicaciones y desenlaces de mortalidad, eventos adversos e independencia funcional en pacientes con ataque cerebrovascular isquémico, ACVi, sometidos a trombectomía mecánica con stent Solitaire, TMSS. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo, de corte trasversal llevado a cabo entre abril de 2013 y abril de 2016. RESULTADOS: Durante el periodo de tiempo evaluado, se sometieron un total de 10 pacientes a TMSS. La edad media de los pacientes fue 62 años. Todos los pacientes tenían una buena clase funcional previa al ACVi, definida como una escala modificada de Rankin de 0 a 2. Al momento de la consulta, la escala de Rankin modificada fue 4. Los pacientes se sometieron a estrategia reperfusión combinada que consta de trombolisis intravenosa más trombectomía mecánica. Sin embargo, un 40 % de los pacientes tenía contraindicación para trombolisis. La mortalidad fue de 20 %, al igual que el sangrado cerebral que se presentó en 20 % de los pacientes y el Rankin modificado mejoró a lo largo del seguimiento en el 70 % de los pacientes, con un total de 50 % de pacientes que lograron independencia funcional significativa. CONCLUSIÓN: Parece haber impacto importante en la independencia funcional de pacientes sometidos a estrategia combinada de reperfusión cerebral con el uso de stents recuperadores, sin diferencia en la seguridad y mortalidad comparado con la estrategia estándar.

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the clinical features, treatment indications, mortality and severity of global disability in the follow up outcomes in isquemic cerebrovascular stroke patients submitted to mechanical thrombectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study conducted from April 2013 to April 2016. RESULTS: During the study period, ten patients underwent mechanical thrombectomy. Mean age was 62, median modified Rankin Scale Score at acceptance was 4. Initially, all patients had a combined reperfusion approach, unless there were contraindications. Intravenous thrombolysis was contraindicated in 40% of patients. Mortality Trombectomía mecánica en pacientes con ataque cerebrovascular isquémico: serie de casos en un centro de referencia colombiano rate was 20% as well as intraparenchimal hemorrhage. Modified Rankin Scale improved during follow up in 70% of patients. Of these, functional independence was achieved by 50% of patients. CONCLUSION: it seems to be a functional independence impact on patients submitted to mechanical thrombectomy. There is not difference in safety and mortality outcomes.

Manifestaciones cardiovasculares en pacientes con dengue durante dos brotes epidémicos en Colombia / Cardiovascular manifestations in dengue fever patients during two epidemic breakouts in Colombia

la afección cardiovascular es una presentación atípica del dengue, que abarca desde bradicardia sinusal asintomática hasta miocarditis grave, aunque no hay datos locales de esta presentación. Objetivo: describir las características clínicas de una serie de pacientes con dengue y evidencia de afección cardiovascular. Materiales y métodos: se realizó un estudio observacional, de corte trasversal, de pacientes admitidos con dengue a un centro de referencia cardiovascular en Medellín, Colombia, durante dos epidemias del virus entre junio de 2010 y diciembre de 2016. Se evaluaron variables clínicas y paraclínicas. Resultados: se registraron un total de 60 pacientes, de los cuales el 30% (18/60) tuvieron compromiso cardiovascular y fueron incluidos en este estudio. La edad media de estos pacientes fue de 63 años y el 56% (10/18) eran hombres. La comorbilidad más frecuente fue la hipertensión arterial esencial (61%, 11/18). La alteración del ritmo cardíaco afectó al 72% (13/18) de los pacientes, con presencia de bloqueo auriculoventricular de primer grado (46%), bradicardia sinusal (38%), fibrilación/aleteo/taquicardia atriales (23%) y ritmo de la unión (8%). La miocarditis y la pericarditis se presentaron en el 17% (3/18) y 11% (2/18) de los pacientes, respectivamente. Otros hallazgos menos comunes fueron la disfunción ventricular izquierda y la angina de pecho (11%, 2/18). No hubo muertes durante la realización del estudio. Conclusiones: las alteraciones asintomáticas del ritmo cardiaco fueron las manifestaciones cardiovasculares más frecuentes del dengue y las afecciones cardiovasculares graves fueron infrecuentes. Se recomienda atención a los síntomas leves de disfunción cardiovascular en los pacientes con dengue

cardiovascular involvement is an atypical presentation of dengue infection. There range from asymptomatic sinus bradycardia to severe life-threatening myocarditis. Data are lacking regarding epidemiology on this topic. Objective: To describe clinical characteristics of patient's series with dengue and evidence of cardiovascular involvement. Materials and methods: It was performed a cross-section, observational study of patients admitted with dengue fever in a cardiovascular reference center in Medellín, Colombia during two epidemic viral outbreaks from June 2010 to December 2016. Results: A total of 60 patients were registred, 30% of them with evidence of cardiovascular involvement. Mean age of patients was 63 years old and 55% were male. Most common comorbidity was hypertension (61%, 11/18). Rhythm disturbances affected 72% (13/18) of patients: first grade AV block (46%), sinus bradycardia (38%), atrial fibrillation/flutter/tachycardia (23%) and junctional rhythm (8%). Myocarditis and pericarditis were present in 17% (3/18) and 11% (2/18) of patients, respectively. Other less common findings were left ventricular dysfunction and angor pectoris (11%, 2/18). There were no deaths during the study period. Conclusions: Asymptomatic rhythm disturbances were the most common cardiovascular manifestations of dengue fever and severe forms of cardiovascular dengue were rare. It is recommended to be attentive to the mild symptoms of cardiovascular dysfunction in patients with dengue

Valor predictivo del EuroSCORE II y el STS score en pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardiaca valvular por el abordaje mínimamente invasivo / EuroSCORE II and STS score predictive value in patients undergoing minimally invasive heart valve surgery

Resumen Objetivo: Evaluar el EuroSCORE II y el STS score como predictores de la morbilidad y la mortalidad postoperatoria en pacientes que van a la cirugía cardiaca valvular aislada por el abordaje mínimamente invasivo. Metodología: Estudio observacional de una cohorte retrospectiva de 273 pacientes consecutivos desde noviembre de 2010 hasta noviembre de 2014. A todos se les calculó el EuroSCORE II y el STS score. La discriminación fue medida con el área bajo la curva ROC y la calibración fue evaluada con el test de Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL). Resultados: La capacidad discriminatoria fue similar, para el EuroSCORE II con un área bajo la curva ROC fue de 0.68 (IC 95%: 0.512 - 0.856), p = 0.039 y la del STS score fue de 0.650 (IC 95%: 0.453 - 0.848), p = 0.107. El poder de calibración para la mortalidad general del EuroSCORE II fue de p = 0.28 y del STS fue de p = 0.27. Ambos puntajes subestimaron el riesgo de la mortalidad. La morbilidad y la mortalidad fue mayor cuando se implementó la técnica mínimamente invasiva y disminuyó progresivamente a 1.4% (n = 1) al cuarto año del estudio. Conclusiones: El valor predictivo del EuroSCORE II y el STS fue similar. El desarrollo y la validación de las escalas locales ayudarían a mejorar la estratificación de riesgo en nuestra población y reflejar verdaderamente nuestra práctica clínica. Se requieren estudios multicéntricos con mayor tamaño de la muestra para estimar la utilidad de las escalas disponibles y para proponer una propia para este tipo de intervención.

Abstract Motivation: Assessing EuroSCORE II and STS score values as predictors for postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing minimally invasive heart valve surgery. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 273 consecutive patients since November 2010 and November 2014. EuroSCORE II and STS score values were collected for all of them. Discrimination was measured with the area under the ROC curve and calibration was assessed by means of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (HL). Results: Discrimination was similar for both tests, EuroSCORE II showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.68 (CI 95%: 0.512-0.856), p = 0.039 and STS score was 0.650 (IC 95%: 0.453- 0.848), p = 0.107. Calibration power for general mortality was p = 0.28 for EuroSCORE II and p = 0.27 for STS. Both scores underestimated mortality risks. Morbidity and mortality were higher when the minimally invasive technique was implemented and it was gradually reduced to 1.4% (n = 1) by the fourth year of the study. Conclusions: Predictive value of EuroSCORE II and STS was similar. Development and validation of local Scales would help improve risk stratification within our population group and truly reflect our clinical practice. Collaborative studies with larger sample sizes are required in order to estimate the usefulness of the available scales and to suggest a scale of its own for this type of surgery.