Medical mitigation model: quantifying the benefits of the public health response to a chemical terrorism attack.

The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) and Chemical Infrastructure Risk Assessment (CIRA) are programs that estimate the risk of chemical terrorism attacks to help inform and improve the US defense posture against such events. One aspect of these programs is the development and advancement of a Medical Mitigation Model-a mathematical model that simulates the medical response to a chemical terrorism attack and estimates the resulting number of saved or benefited victims. At the foundation of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model is the concept of stock-and-flow modeling; "stocks" are states that individuals progress through during the event, while "flows" permit and govern movement from one stock to another. Using this approach, the model is able to simulate and track individual victims as they progress from exposure to an end state. Some of the considerations in the model include chemical used, type of attack, route and severity of exposure, response-related delays, detailed treatment regimens with efficacy defined as a function of time, medical system capacity, the influx of worried well individuals, and medical countermeasure availability. As will be demonstrated, the output of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the existing public health response system and develop and examine potential improvement strategies. Such a modeling and analysis capability can be used to inform first-responder actions/training, guide policy decisions, justify resource allocation, and direct knowledge-gap studies.

Environmental safety to decomposer invertebrates of azadirachtin (neem) as a systemic insecticide in trees to control emerald ash borer.

The non-target effects of an azadirachtin-based systemic insecticide used for control of wood-boring insect pests in trees were assessed on litter-dwelling earthworms, leaf-shredding aquatic insects, and microbial communities in terrestrial and aquatic microcosms. The insecticide was injected into the trunks of ash trees at a rate of 0.2 gazadirachtin cm(-1) tree diameter in early summer. At the time of senescence, foliar concentrations in most (65%) leaves where at or below detection (<0.01 mg kg(-1) total azadirachtin) and the average concentration among leaves overall at senescence was 0.19 mg kg(-1). Leaves from the azadirachtin-treated trees at senescence were added to microcosms and responses by test organisms were compared to those in microcosms containing leaves from non-treated ash trees (controls). No significant reductions were detected among earthworm survival, leaf consumption rates, growth rates, or cocoon production, aquatic insect survival and leaf consumption rates, and among terrestrial and aquatic microbial decomposition of leaf material in comparison to controls. In a further set of microcosm tests containing leaves from intentional high-dose trees, the only significant, adverse effect detected was a reduction in microbial decomposition of leaf material, and only at the highest test concentration (∼6 mg kg(-1)). Results indicated no significant adverse effects on litter-dwelling earthworms or leaf-shredding aquatic insects at concentrations up to at least 30 × the expected field concentrations at operational rates, and at 6 × expected field concentrations for adverse effects on microbial decomposition. We conclude that when azadirachtin is used as a systemic insecticide in trees for control of insect pests such as the invasive wood-boring beetle, emerald ash borer, resultant foliar concentrations in senescent leaf material are likely to pose little risk of harm to decomposer invertebrates.

Are leaves that fall from imidacloprid-treated maple trees to control Asian longhorned beetles toxic to non-target decomposer organisms?

The systemic insecticide imidacloprid may be applied to deciduous trees for control of the Asian longhorned beetle, an invasive wood-boring insect. Senescent leaves falling from systemically treated trees contain imidacloprid concentrations that could pose a risk to natural decomposer organisms. We examined the effects of foliar imidacloprid concentrations on decomposer organisms by adding leaves from imidacloprid-treated sugar maple trees to aquatic and terrestrial microcosms under controlled laboratory conditions. Imidacloprid in maple leaves at realistic field concentrations (3-11 mg kg(-1)) did not affect survival of aquatic leaf-shredding insects or litter-dwelling earthworms. However, adverse sublethal effects at these concentrations were detected. Feeding rates by aquatic insects and earthworms were reduced, leaf decomposition (mass loss) was decreased, measurable weight losses occurred among earthworms, and aquatic and terrestrial microbial decomposition activity was significantly inhibited. Results of this study suggest that sugar maple trees systemically treated with imidacloprid to control Asian longhorned beetles may yield senescent leaves with residue levels sufficient to reduce natural decomposition processes in aquatic and terrestrial environments through adverse effects on non-target decomposer organisms.

Effects on litter-dwelling earthworms and microbial decomposition of soil-applied imidacloprid for control of wood-boring insects.

BACKGROUND: Imidacloprid is an effective, systemic insecticide for the control of wood-boring insect pests in trees. Systemic applications to trees are often made by soil injections or drenches, and the resulting imidacloprid concentrations in soil or litter may pose a risk of harm to natural decomposer organisms. The authors tested effects of imidacloprid on survival and weight gain or loss of the earthworms Eisenia fetida (Savigny) and Dendrobaena octaedra (Savigny), on leaf consumption rates and cocoon production by D. octaedra and on microbial decomposition activity in laboratory microcosms containing natural forest litter. RESULTS: Dendrobaena octaedra was the most sensitive of the two earthworm species, with an LC(50) of 5.7 mg kg(-1), an LC(10) of about 2 mg kg(-1) and significant weight losses among survivors at 3 mg kg(-1). Weight losses resulted from a physiological effect rather than from feeding inhibition. There were no effects on cocoon production among survivors at 3 mg kg(-1). The LC(50) for E. fetida was 25 mg kg(-1), with significant weight losses at 14 mg kg(-1). There were no significant effects on microbial decomposition of leaf material at the maximum test concentration of 1400 mg kg(-1). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that, when imidacloprid is applied as a systemic insecticide to the soil around trees, it is likely to cause adverse effects on litter-dwelling earthworms if concentrations in the litter reach or exceed about 3 mg kg(-1).

New parametrization method for dissipative particle dynamics.

We introduce an improved method of parametrizing the Groot-Warren version of dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) by exploiting a correspondence between DPD and Scatchard-Hildebrand regular solution theory. The new parametrization scheme widens the realm of applicability of DPD by first removing the restriction of equal repulsive interactions between like beads, and second, by relating all conservative interactions between beads directly to cohesive energy densities. We establish the correspondence by deriving an expression for the Helmoltz free energy of mixing, obtaining a heat of mixing which is exactly the same form as that for a regular mixture (quadratic in the volume fraction) and an entropy of mixing which reduces to the ideal entropy of mixing for equal molar volumes. We equate the conservative interaction parameters in the DPD force law to the cohesive energy densities of the pure fluids, providing an alternative method of calculating the self-interaction parameters as well as a route to the cross interaction parameter. We validate the new parametrization by modeling the binary system SnI(4)SiCl(4), which displays liquid-liquid coexistence below an upper critical solution temperature around 140 degrees C. A series of DPD simulations were conducted at a set of temperatures ranging from 0 degrees C to above the experimental upper critical solution temperature using conservative parameters based on extrapolated experimental data. These simulations can be regarded as being equivalent to a quench from a high temperature to a lower one at constant volume. Our simulations recover the expected phase behavior ranging from solid-liquid coexistence to liquid-liquid coexistence and eventually leading to a homogeneous single phase system. The results yield a binodal curve in close agreement with the one predicted using regular solution theory, but, significantly, in closer agreement with actual solubility measurements.

Non-target effects on aquatic decomposer organisms of imidacloprid as a systemic insecticide to control emerald ash borer in riparian trees.

Imidacloprid is effective against emerald ash borer when applied as a systemic insecticide. Following stem or soil injections to trees in riparian areas, imidacloprid residues could be indirectly introduced to aquatic systems via leaf fall or leaching. Either route of exposure may affect non-target, aquatic decomposer organisms. Leaves from ash trees treated with imidacloprid at two field rates and an intentionally-high concentration were added to aquatic microcosms. Leaves from trees treated at the two field rates contained imidacloprid concentrations of 0.8-1.3 ppm, and did not significantly affect leaf-shredding insect survival, microbial respiration or microbial decomposition rates. Insect feeding rates were significantly inhibited at foliar concentrations of 1.3 ppm but not at 0.8 ppm. Leaves from intentionally high-dose trees contained concentrations of about 80 ppm, and resulted in 89-91% mortality of leaf-shredding insects, but no adverse effects on microbial respiration and decomposition rates. Imidacloprid applied directly to aquatic microcosms to simulate leaching from soils was at least 10 times more toxic to aquatic insects than the foliar concentrations, with high mortality at 0.13 ppm and significant feeding inhibition at 0.012 ppm.

Modeling the morphology and mechanical properties of sheared ternary mixtures.

Through a combination of simulation techniques, we determine both the structural evolution and mechanical properties of blends formed from immiscible ternary mixtures. In this approach, we first use the lattice Boltzmann method to simulate the phase separation dynamics of A/B/C fluid mixtures for varying compositions within the spinodal region. We also investigate the effect of an imposed shear on the phase ordering of the mixture. We assume that the fluid is quenched sufficiently rapidly that the phase-separated structure is preserved in the resultant solid. Then, the output from our morphological studies serves as the input to the lattice spring model, which is used to simulate the elastic response of solids to an applied deformation. These simulations reveal how the local stress and strain fields and the global Young's modulus depend on the composition of the blend and the stiffness of the components. By comparing the results for the sheared and unsheared cases, we can isolate optimal processing conditions for enhancing the mechanical performance of the blends. Overall, the findings provide fundamental insight into the relationship between structure, processing, and properties for heterogeneous materials and can yield guidelines for formulating blends with the desired macroscopic mechanical behavior.

Effect of hydrodynamic interactions on the evolution of chemically reactive ternary mixtures.

We investigate the structural evolution of an A/B/C ternary mixture in which the A and B components can undergo a reversible chemical reaction to form C. We developed a lattice Boltzmann model for this ternary mixture that allows us to capture both the reaction kinetics and the hydrodynamic interactions within the system. We use this model to study a specific reactive mixture in which C acts as a surfactant, i.e., the formation of C at the A/B interface decreases the interfacial tension between the A and B domains. We found that the dynamics of the system is different for fluids in the diffusive and viscous regimes. In the diffusive regime, the formation of a layer of C at the interface leads to a freezing of the structural evolution in the fluid; the values of the reaction rate constants determine the characteristic domain size in the system. In the viscous regime, where hydrodynamic interactions are important, interfacial reactions cause a slowing down of the domain growth, but do not arrest the evolution of the mixture. The results provide guidelines for controlling the morphology of this complex ternary fluid.