PEPFAR Reauthorization by Congress Urgent for Global Health.

This Viewpoint discusses the importance of the US Congress reauthorizing funding for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, a program developed in 2003 that has played a critical role in fighting HIV/AIDS worldwide as well as other emerging infections and noncommunicable diseases.

Advancing Adolescent HIV Prevention and Care Through Implementation Science: An Agenda for Combating the Global AIDS Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.

AIDS continues to be a major driver of adolescent mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite evidence of efficacy in this population, many efforts to address adolescent HIV have had limited impact across the region because of difficulty with implementation. The field of implementation science holds promise for addressing these challenges. The Fogarty-led Adolescent HIV Prevention and Treatment Implementation Science Alliance (AHISA) creates a platform for bidirectional learning between researchers and the users of research evidence that promotes the use of implementation science to strengthen adolescent HIV prevention and care across Africa. The unique contributions of AHISA are reflected in this supplement's articles which represent the collective learning of the Alliance; illustrate the value of implementation science in the context of adolescent HIV; and identify critical research gaps that should be addressed by implementation science in the future.

Assessing the impact of one million COVID-19 deaths in America: economic and life expectancy losses.

Between February 2020 and May 2022, one million Americans have died of COVID-19. To determine the contribution of those deaths to all-cause mortality in terms of life expectancy reductions and the resulting economic welfare losses, we calculated their combined impact on national income growth and the added value of lives lost. We estimated that US life expectancy at birth dropped by 3.08 years due to the million COVID-19 deaths. Economic welfare losses estimated in terms of national income growth supplemented by the value of lives lost, was in the order of US$3.57 trillion. US$2.20 trillion of these losses were in in the non-Hispanic White population (56.50%), US$698.24 billion (19.54%) in the Hispanic population, and US$579.93 billion (16.23%) in the non-Hispanic Black population. The scale of life expectancy and welfare losses underscores the pressing need to invest in health in the US to prevent further economic shocks from future pandemic threats.

Scaling up public mental health care in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from infectious disease.

INTRODUCTION: Models estimate that the disability burden from mental disorders in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will more than double in the next 40 years. Similar to HIV, mental disorders are stigmatized in many SSA settings and addressing them requires community engagement and long-term treatment. Yet, in contrast to HIV, the public mental healthcare cascade has not been sustained, despite robust data on scalable strategies. We draw on findings from our International AIDS Society (IAS) 2020 virtual workshop and make recommendations for next steps in the scale up of the SSA public mental healthcare continuum. DISCUSSION: Early HIV surveillance and care cascade targets are discussed as important strategies for HIV response in SSA that should be adopted for mental health. Advocacy, including engagement with civil society, and targeted economic arguments to policymakers, are reviewed in the context of HIV success in SSA. Parallel opportunities for mental disorders are identified. Learning from HIV, communication of strategies that advance mental health care needs in SSA must be prioritized for broad global audiences. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is setting off a colossal escalation of global mental health care needs, well-publicized across scientific, media, policymaker, and civil society domains. The pandemic highlights disparities in healthcare access and reinvigorates the push for universal coverage. Learning from HIV strategies, we must seize this historical moment to improve the public mental health care cascade in SSA and capitalize on the powerful alliances ready to be forged. As noted by Ambassador Goosby in our AIDS 2020 workshop, 'The time is now'.

COVID-19 and global equity for health: The good, the bad, and the wicked.

Elvin Geng and co-authors discuss monitoring and achieving equity in provision of vaccines for COVID-19.

Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis.

BACKGROUND: The tuberculosis targets for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a 90% reduction in tuberculosis deaths by 2030, compared with 2015, but meeting this target now seems highly improbable. To assess the economic impact of not meeting the target until 2045, we estimated full-income losses in 120 countries, including those due to excess deaths resulting from COVID-19-related disruptions to tuberculosis services, for the period 2020-50. METHODS: Annual mortality risk changes at each age in each year from 2020 to 2050 were estimated for 120 countries. This risk change was then converted to full-income risk by calculating a population-level mortality risk change and multiplying it by the value of a statistical life-year in each country and year. As a comparator, we assumed that current rates of tuberculosis continue to decline through the period of analysis. We calculated the full-income losses, and mean life expectancy losses per person, at birth and at age 35 years, under scenarios in which the SDG targets are met in 2030 and in 2045. We defined the cost of inaction as the difference in full-income losses and tuberculosis mortality between these two scenarios. FINDINGS: From 2020 to 2050, based on the current annual decrease in tuberculosis deaths of 2%, 31·8 million tuberculosis deaths (95% uncertainty interval 25·2 million-39·5 million) are estimated to occur, corresponding to an economic loss of US$17·5 trillion (14·9 trillion-20·4 trillion). If the SDG tuberculosis mortality target is met in 2030, 23·8 million tuberculosis deaths (18·9 million-29·5 million) and $13·1 trillion (11·2 trillion-15·3 trillion) in economic losses can be avoided. If the target is met in 2045, 18·1 million tuberculosis deaths (14·3 million-22·4 million) and $10·2 trillion (8·7 trillion-11·8 trillion) can be avoided. The cost of inaction of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045 (vs 2030) is, therefore, 5·7 million tuberculosis deaths (5·1 million-8·1 million) and $3·0 trillion (2·5 trillion-3·5 trillion) in economic losses. COVID-19-related disruptions add $290·3 billion (260·2 billion-570·1 billion) to this cost. INTERPRETATION: Failure to achieve the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030 will lead to profound economic and health losses. The effects of delay will be greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Affected countries, donor nations, and the private sector should redouble efforts to finance tuberculosis programmes and research because the economic dividend of such strategies is likely to be substantial. FUNDING: None.

Integrating Social Determinants in Decision-Making Processes for Health: Insights from Conceptual Frameworks-the 3-D Commission.

The inclusion of social determinants of health offers a more comprehensive lens to fully appreciate and effectively address health. However, decision-makers across sectors still struggle to appropriately recognise and act upon these determinants, as illustrated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, improving the health of populations remains challenging. This paper seeks to draw insights from the literature to better understand decision-making processes affecting health and the potential to integrate data on social determinants. We summarised commonly cited conceptual approaches across all stages of the policy process, from agenda-setting to evaluation. Nine conceptual approaches were identified, including two frameworks, two models and five theories. From across the selected literature, it became clear that the context, the actors and the type of the health issue are critical variables in decision-making for health, a process that by nature is a dynamic and adaptable one. The majority of these conceptual approaches implicitly suggest a possible role for data on social determinants of health in decision-making. We suggest two main avenues to make the link more explicit: the use of data in giving health problems the appropriate visibility and credibility they require and the use of social determinants of health as a broader framing to more effectively attract the attention of a diverse group of decision-makers with the power to allocate resources. Social determinants of health present opportunities for decision-making, which can target modifiable factors influencing health-i.e. interventions to improve or reduce risks to population health. Future work is needed to build on this review and propose an improved, people-centred and evidence-informed decision-making tool that strongly and explicitly integrates data on social determinants of health.

Improving Decision-Making for Population Health in Nonhealth Sectors in Urban Environments: the Example of the Transportation Sector in Three Megacities-the 3-D Commission.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) represent a significant global public health burden. As more countries experience both epidemiologic transition and increasing urbanization, it is clear that we need approaches to mitigate the growing burden of NCDs. Large and growing urban environments play an important role in shaping risk factors that influence NCDs, pointing to the ineluctable need to engage sectors beyond the health sector in these settings if we are to improve health. By way of one example, the transportation sector plays a critical role in building and sustaining health outcomes in urban environments in general and in megacities in particular. We conducted a qualitative comparative case study design. We compared Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) policies in 3 megacities-Lagos (Africa), Bogotá (South America), and Beijing (Asia). We examined the extent to which data on the social determinants of health, equity considerations, and multisectoral approaches were incorporated into local politics and the decision-making processes surrounding BRT. We found that all three megacities paid inadequate attention to health in their agenda-setting, despite having considerable healthy transportation policies in principle. BRT system policies have the opportunity to improve lifestyle choices for NCDs through a focus on safe, affordable, and effective forms of transportation. There are opportunities to improve decision-making for health by involving more available data for health, building on existing infrastructures, building stronger political leadership and commitments, and establishing formal frameworks to improve multisectoral collaborations within megacities. Future research will benefit from addressing the political and bureaucratic processes of using health data when designing public transportation services, the political and social obstacles involved, and the cross-national lessons that can be learned from other megacities.

How will COVID-19 transform global health post-pandemic? Defining research and investment opportunities and priorities.

Michael Reid and co-authors introduce a Collection on the global health in the post-COVID-19 era.

Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in lowering the viral inoculum to reduce susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially disease severity.

Adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been highly variable across settings, particularly in the USA. In this Personal View, we review data supporting the importance of the viral inoculum (the dose of viral particles from an infected source over time) in increasing the probability of infection in respiratory, gastrointestinal, and sexually transmitted viral infections in humans. We also review the available evidence linking the relationship of the viral inoculum to disease severity. Non-pharmaceutical interventions might reduce the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing the viral inoculum when there is exposure to an infectious source. Data from physical sciences research suggest that masks protect the wearer by filtering virus from external sources, and others by reducing expulsion of virus by the wearer. Social distancing, handwashing, and improved ventilation also reduce the exposure amount of viral particles from an infectious source. Maintaining and increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions can help to quell SARS-CoV-2 as we enter the second year of the pandemic. Finally, we argue that even as safe and effective vaccines are being rolled out, non-pharmaceutical interventions will continue to play an essential role in suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission until equitable and widespread vaccine administration has been completed.

Political prioritization and the competing definitions of adolescent pregnancy in Kenya: An application of the Public Arenas Model.

BACKGROUND: Approximately one in every five adolescent girls in Kenya has either had a live birth or is pregnant with her first child. There is an urgent need to understand the language and symbols used to represent adolescent pregnancy, if the current trend in adolescent pregnancy is to be reversed. Agreement on the definition of a societal problem is an important precursor to a social issue's political prioritization and priority setting. METHODS: We apply the Public Arenas Model to appraise the environments, definitions, competition dynamics, principles of selection and current actors involved in problem-solving and prioritizing adolescent pregnancy as a policy issue. Using a focused ethnographic approach, we undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent sexual reproductive health networks at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews. FINDINGS: We found that existing definitions center around adolescent pregnancy as a "disease" that needs prevention and treatment, socially deviant behaviour that requires individual agency, and a national social concern that drains public resources and therefore needs to be regulated. These competing definitions contribute to the rarity of the topic achieving traction within the political agenda and contribute to conflicting solutions, such as lowering the legal age of consenting to sex, while limiting access to contraceptive information and services to minors. CONCLUSION: This paper provides a timely theoretical approach to draw attention to the different competing definitions and subsequent divergent interpretations of the problem of adolescent pregnancy in Kenya. Adolescent reproductive health stakeholders need to be familiar with the existing definitions and deliberately reframe this important social problem for better political prioritization and resource allocation. We recommend a definition of adolescent pregnancy that cuts across different arenas, and leverages already existing dominant and concurrent social and economic issues that are already on the agenda table.

Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer.

Although the benefit of population-level public facial masking to protect others during the COVID-19 pandemic has received a great deal of attention, we discuss for one of the first times the hypothesis that universal masking reduces the "inoculum" or dose of the virus for the mask-wearer, leading to more mild and asymptomatic infection manifestations. Masks, depending on type, filter out the majority of viral particles, but not all. We first discuss the near-century-old literature around the viral inoculum and severity of disease (conceptualized as the LD50 or lethal dose of the virus). We include examples of rising rates of asymptomatic infection with population-level masking, including in closed settings (e.g., cruise ships) with and without universal masking. Asymptomatic infections may be harmful for spread but could actually be beneficial if they lead to higher rates of exposure. Exposing society to SARS-CoV-2 without the unacceptable consequences of severe illness with public masking could lead to greater community-level immunity and slower spread as we await a vaccine. This theory of viral inoculum and mild or asymptomatic disease with SARS-CoV-2 in light of population-level masking has received little attention so this is one of the first perspectives to discuss the evidence supporting this theory.

Improving quality is necessary to building a TB-free world: Lancet Commission on Tuberculosis.

The Lancet Commission on Tuberculosis (TB) set out to establish a roadmap for how high burden countries could get on track to meet the goals established by the UN High Level Meeting (UNHLM) in September 2018. The report sought to answer the question "How should TB high-burden countries and their development partners target their future investments to ensure that ending TB is achieved?" It provides a comprehensive analysis and specific recommendations to address this question and, ultimately, remove the barriers to building a TB-free World. Notably, the report highlights the importance of improving the quality of care as an essential component of ending the epidemic. Strategies for improving quality must be hard-wired into how National TB Programs are organized, to ensure greater equity in TB service provision and implementation of evidence-based practices and clinical guidelines. Investing in TB research and development, especially implementation, policy and programmatic research to determine how to deliver high quality care must also be high priority. In addition, improving the quality of TB programs is contingent on strategies that enhance accountability at all levels, from the level of Head of State to the local TB clinics. To this ends it is essential that TB survivors and their advocates have a voice to raise inconvenient truths and demand improvements in quality. The Commission concludes that the prospect of a TB-free world is a realistic objective that can be achieved with the right commitment of leadership and resources but will only be realized as and when quality of care is prioritized as a central tenet of all TB programs.

Achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC): Dominance analysis across 183 countries highlights importance of strengthening health workforce.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing political will to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), there is a paucity of empiric data describing what health system indicators are useful surrogates of country-level progress towards UHC. We sought to determine what public health interventions were useful tracers of country-level UHC progress. METHODS: Across 183 countries we evaluated the extent to which 16 service delivery indicators explained variability in the UHC Service Coverage Index, (UHC SCI) a WHO-validated indicator of country-level health coverage. Dominance analyses, stratifying countries by World Bank income criteria, were used to determine which indicators were most important in in predicting UHC SCI scores. FINDINGS: Health workforce density ranked first overall, provision of basic sanitation and access to clean water ranked second, and provision of basic antenatal services ranked third. In analysis stratified by World Bank income criteria, health workforce density ranked first in Lower Middle Income-Countries (LMICs) (n = 45) and third in Upper Middle Income-Countries (UMICs) (n = 51). CONCLUSIONS: While each country will have a different approach to achieving UHC, strengthening the health workforce will need to be a key priority if they are to be successful in achieving UHC.

Challenges to generating political prioritization for adolescent sexual and reproductive health in Kenya: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of adverse adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, it has remained a low political priority in Kenya. We examined factors that have shaped the lack of current political prioritization of adolescent SRH service provision. METHODS: We used the Shiffman and Smith policy framework consisting of four categories-actor power, ideas, political contexts, and issue characteristics-to analyse factors that have shaped political prioritization of adolescent SRH. We undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent SRH networks between February and April 2019 at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews. FINDINGS: Several factors hinder the attainment of political priority for adolescent SRH in Kenya. On actor power, the adolescent SRH community was diverse and united in adoption of international norms and policies, but lacked policy entrepreneurs to provide strong leadership, and policy windows were often missed. Regarding ideas, community members lacked consensus on a cohesive public positioning of the problem. On issue characteristics, the perception of adolescents as lacking political power made politicians reluctant to act on the existing data on the severity of adolescent SRH. There was also a lack of consensus on the nature of interventions to be implemented. Pertaining to political contexts, sectoral funding by donors and government treasury brought about tension within the different government ministries resulting in siloed approaches, lack of coordination and overall inefficiency. However, the SRH community has several strengths that augur well for future political support. These include the diverse multi-sectoral background of its members, commitment to improving adolescent SRH, and the potential to link with other health priorities such as maternal health and HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION: In order to increase political attention to adolescent SRH in Kenya, there is an urgent need for policy actors to: 1) create a more cohesive community of advocates across sectors, 2) develop a clearer public positioning of adolescent SRH, 3) agree on a set of precise approaches that will resonate with the political system, and 4) identify and nurture policy entrepreneurs to facilitate the coupling of adolescent SRH with potential solutions when windows of opportunity arise.