"The power imbalance was blown out the window": developing and implementing creative workshops to enhance communication of statistics in patient and public involvement in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of statistical and numerical aspects in key decisions related to clinical trials and their impact in patient's care, patient and public involvement remains underdeveloped in this field. Communication is a barrier to enable successful involvement of patients and the public in numerical aspects. Treatment important differences, a crucial numerical aspect in trials, is considered a priority for patient and public involvement. Creative methods have been proposed to improve communication of technical concepts with members of the public; and to democratise and improve inclusivity in patient and public involvement in health research. METHODS: Working with creative professionals, public partners, and statisticians, we aimed to develop, pilot and implement creative workshops to promote a shared understanding of treatment important differences; and co-develop creative prototypes that could be used to communicate the statistical concept to a wider audience in the future. Three 2 to 4 h creative workshops based in the UK were delivered. The first two workshops included 22 participants. They were online and worked as pilots to refine the final in-person workshop via participant feedback and discussion. The final workshop focused on treatment important differences, and we collected information from participants on expectations, subjective numeracy, and experience. RESULTS: The final workshop included 13 participants (5 creative professionals, 4 public partners, and 4 clinical trial statisticians). Participants reported creative workshops helped improve communication of treatment important differences between stakeholders reaching a common understanding of their meaning; and helped democratise knowledge exchange. Each group developed a creative prototype to communicate about treatment important differences with a wider audience, including a song, game, and a cartoon. Participants recommended the format to improve communication of other statistical or complex concepts between stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Creative workshops can promote shared understanding of complex, statistical concepts and co-development of creative outputs amongst stakeholders. Future work should explore generalisability of the intervention, and what outcomes might be important to consider when implementing creative workshops in patient and public involvement practice.

Patient and public involvement in clinical trials helps improve their relevance. Decisions related to numbers in trials consider information related to patients and their clinical experience, but patients and the public are rarely involved in these decisions. One barrier to achieve this is communication: numbers can be challenging to discuss. Creative methods (including writing, dancing, drawing) have been suggested as a potential way to improve communication of numbers with a wide audience. Working with creative professionals, public partners, and statisticians we developed, piloted, and implemented a creative workshop focusing on improving communication by reaching a common understanding between participants of a specific numerical concept related to clinical trials and where patient and public involvement is crucial. The creative workshop aimed to facilitate mutual learning between creative professionals, members of the public, and statisticians; and to promote co-development of creative outputs to describe the same numerical concept to a wider audience. Workshop participants felt the creative workshops improved communication of the numerical concept and helped everyone feel heard. Workshop participants were particularly interested in visual methods to support communication, and recommended creative workshops should be used to improve communication of other statistical and complex concepts.

Involving patients and the public In sTatistIcal Analysis pLans (INITIAL): A delphi survey.

BACKGROUND: Patient and public involvement (PPI) in trials aims to enhance research by improving its relevance and transparency. Planning for statistical analysis begins at the design stage of a trial within the protocol and is refined and detailed in a Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP). While PPI is common in design and protocol development it is less common within SAPs. This study aimed to reach consensus on the most important and relevant statistical analysis items within an SAP to involve patients and the public. METHODS: We developed a UK-based, two-round Delphi survey through an iterative consultation with public partners, statisticians, and trialists. The consultation process started with 55 items from international guidance for statistical analysis plans. We aimed to recruit at least 20 participants per key stakeholder group for inclusion in the final analysis of the Delphi survey. Participants were asked to vote on each item using a Likert scale from 1 to 9, where a rating of 1 to 3 was labelled as having 'limited importance'; 4 to 6 as 'important but not critical' and 7 to 9 as 'critical' to involve patients and the public. Results from the second round determined consensus on critical items for PPI. RESULTS: The consultation exercise led to the inclusion of 15 statistical items in the Delphi survey. We recruited 179 participants, of whom 72% (129: 36 statisticians, 29 patients or public partners, 25 clinical researchers or methodologists, 27 trial managers, and 12 PPI coordinators) completed both rounds. Participants were on average 48 years old, 60% were female, 84% were White, 64% were based in England and 84% had at least five years' experience in trials. Four items reached consensus regarding critical importance for patient and public involvement: presentation of results to trial participants; summary and presentation of harms; interpretation and presentation of findings in an academic setting; factors impacting how well a treatment works. No consensus was reached for the remaining 11 items. In general, the results were consistent across stakeholder groups. DISCUSSION: We identified four critical items to involve patients and the public in statistical analysis plans. The remaining 11 items did not reach consensus and need to be considered in a case-by-case basis with most responders considering patient and public involvement important (but not critical). Our research provides a platform to enable focused future efforts to improve patient and public involvement in trials and enhance the relevance of statistical analyses to patients and the public.

Reporting of Factorial Randomized Trials: Extension of the CONSORT 2010 Statement.

Importance: Transparent reporting of randomized trials is essential to facilitate critical appraisal and interpretation of results. Factorial trials, in which 2 or more interventions are assessed in the same set of participants, have unique methodological considerations. However, reporting of factorial trials is suboptimal. Objective: To develop a consensus-based extension to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 Statement for factorial trials. Design: Using the Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research (EQUATOR) methodological framework, the CONSORT extension for factorial trials was developed by (1) generating a list of reporting recommendations for factorial trials using a scoping review of methodological articles identified using a MEDLINE search (from inception to May 2019) and supplemented with relevant articles from the personal collections of the authors; (2) a 3-round Delphi survey between January and June 2022 to identify additional items and assess the importance of each item, completed by 104 panelists from 14 countries; and (3) a hybrid consensus meeting attended by 15 panelists to finalize the selection and wording of items for the checklist. Findings: This CONSORT extension for factorial trials modifies 16 of the 37 items in the CONSORT 2010 checklist and adds 1 new item. The rationale for the importance of each item is provided. Key recommendations are (1) the reason for using a factorial design should be reported, including whether an interaction is hypothesized, (2) the treatment groups that form the main comparisons should be clearly identified, and (3) for each main comparison, the estimated interaction effect and its precision should be reported. Conclusions and Relevance: This extension of the CONSORT 2010 Statement provides guidance on the reporting of factorial randomized trials and should facilitate greater understanding of and transparency in their reporting.

Consensus Statement for Protocols of Factorial Randomized Trials: Extension of the SPIRIT 2013 Statement.

Importance: Trial protocols outline a trial's objectives as well as the methods (design, conduct, and analysis) that will be used to meet those objectives, and transparent reporting of trial protocols ensures objectives are clear and facilitates appraisal regarding the suitability of study methods. Factorial trials, in which 2 or more interventions are assessed in the same set of participants, have unique methodological considerations. However, no extension of the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) 2013 Statement, which provides guidance on reporting of trial protocols, for factorial trials is available. Objective: To develop a consensus-based extension to the SPIRIT 2013 Statement for factorial trials. Evidence Review: The SPIRIT extension for factorial trials was developed using the Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research (EQUATOR) methodological framework. First, a list of reporting recommendations was generated using a scoping review of methodological articles identified using a MEDLINE search (inception to May 2019), which was supplemented with relevant articles from the personal collections of the authors. Second, a 3-round Delphi survey (January to June 2022, completed by 104 panelists from 14 countries) was conducted to assess the importance of items and identify additional recommendations. Third, a hybrid consensus meeting was held, attended by 15 panelists to finalize selection and wording of the checklist. Findings: This SPIRIT extension for factorial trials modified 9 of the 33 items in the SPIRIT 2013 checklist. Key reporting recommendations were that the rationale for using a factorial design should be provided, including whether an interaction is hypothesized; the treatment groups that will form the main comparisons should be identified; and statistical methods for each main comparison should be provided, including how interactions will be assessed. Conclusions and Relevance: In this consensus statement, 9 factorial-specific items were provided that should be addressed in all protocols of factorial trials to increase the trial's utility and transparency.

Citizen science to improve patient and public involvement in GUideline Implementation in oral health and DEntistry (the GUIDE platform).

BACKGROUND: Citizen science is a way to democratise science by involving groups of citizens in the research process. Clinical guidelines are used to improve practice, but their implementation can be limited. Involving patients and the public can enhance guideline implementation, but there is uncertainty about the best approaches to achieve this. Citizen science is a potential way to involve patients and the public in improving clinical guideline implementation. We aimed to explore the application of citizen science methods to involve patients and the public in the dissemination and implementation of clinical guidelines in oral health and dentistry. METHODS: We developed GUIDE (GUideline Implementation in oral health and DEntistry), a citizen science online platform, using a participatory approach with researchers, oral health professionals, guideline developers and citizens. Recruitment was conducted exclusively online. The platform focused on prespecified challenges related to oral health assessment guidelines, and asked citizens to generate ideas, as well as vote and comment on other citizens' ideas to improve those challenges. Citizens also shared their views via surveys and two online synchronous group meetings. Data were collected on participant's demographics, platform engagement and experience of taking part. The most promising idea category was identified by an advisory group based on engagement, feasibility and relevance. We presented quantitative data using descriptive statistics and analysed qualitative data using inductive and deductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: The platform was open for 6 months and we recruited 189 citizens, from which over 90 citizens actively engaged with the platform. Most citizens were over 34 years (64%), female (58%) and had a university degree (50%). They generated 128 ideas, 146 comments and 248 votes. The challenge that led to most engagement was related to prevention and oral health self-care. To take this challenge forward, citizens generated a further 36 ideas to improve a pre-existing National Health Service oral care prevention leaflet. Citizens discussed motivations to take part in the platform (understanding, values, self-care), reasons to stay engaged (communication and feedback, outputs and impact, and relevance of topics discussed) and suggestions to improve future platforms. CONCLUSION: Citizen science is an effective approach to generate and prioritise ideas from a group of citizens to improve oral health and dental services. Prevention and oral health self-care were of particular interest to citizens. More research is needed to ensure recruitment of a diverse group of citizens and to improve retention in citizen science projects. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: This project was inherently conducted with the input of public partners (citizen scientists) in all key aspects of its conduct and interpretation. In addition, two public partners were part of the research team and contributed to the design of the project, as well as key decisions related to its conduct, analysis, interpretation and dissemination and are co-authors of this manuscript.

Patient and public involvement in pragmatic trials: online survey of corresponding authors of published trials.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on patient and public involvement (PPI) in pragmatic trials. We aimed to describe the prevalence and nature of PPI within pragmatic trials, describe variation in prevalence of PPI by trial characteristics and compare prevalence of PPI reported by trial authors to that reported in trial publications. METHODS: We applied a search filter to identify pragmatic trials published from 2014 to 2019 in MEDLINE. We invited the corresponding authors of pragmatic trials to participate in an online survey about their specific trial. RESULTS: Of 3163 authors invited, 2585 invitations were delivered, 710 (27.5%) reported on 710 unique trials and completed the survey; 334 (47.0%) conducted PPI. Among those who conducted PPI, for many the aim was to increase the research relevance (86.3%) or quality (76.5%). Most PPI partners were engaged at protocol development stages (79.1%) and contributed to the co-design of interventions (70.9%) or recruitment or retention strategies (60.5%). Patient and public involvement was more common among trials involving children, trials conducted in the United Kingdom, cluster randomized trials, those explicitly labelled as "pragmatic" in the study manuscript, and more recent trials. Less than one-quarter of trials (22.8%) that reported PPI in the survey also reported PPI in the trial manuscript. INTERPRETATION: Nearly half of trialists in this survey reported conducting PPI and listed several benefits of doing so, but researchers who did not conduct PPI often cited a lack of requirement for it. Patient and public involvement appears to be significantly underreported in trial publications. Consistent and standardized reporting is needed to promote transparency about PPI methods, outcomes, challenges and benefits.

Designing infographics in health research with patients and the public: A scoping review protocol.

Information graphics or infographics combine visual representations of information or data with text. They have been used in health research to disseminate research findings, translate knowledge and address challenges in health communication to lay audiences. There is emerging evidence of the design of infographics with the involvement of patients and the public in health research. Approaches to involvement include public and patient involvement, patient engagement and participatory research approaches. To date, there has been no comprehensive review of the literature on the design of infographics with patients and the public in health research. This paper presents a protocol and methodological framework for a scoping review to identify and map the available evidence for the involvement of patients and the public in infographics design in health research. It has been informed by preliminary searches and discussions and will guide the conduct and reporting of this review.

Starting a conversation about estimands with public partners involved in clinical trials: a co-developed tool.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials aim to draw conclusions about the effects of treatments, but a trial can address many different potential questions. For example, does the treatment work well for patients who take it as prescribed? Or does it work regardless of whether patients take it exactly as prescribed? Since different questions can lead to different conclusions on treatment benefit, it is important to clearly understand what treatment effect a trial aims to investigate-this is called the 'estimand'. Using estimands helps to ensure trials are designed and analysed to answer the questions of interest to different stakeholders, including patients and public. However, there is uncertainty about whether patients and public would like to be involved in defining estimands and how to do so. Public partners are patients and/or members of the public who are part of, or advise, the research team. We aimed to (i) co-develop a tool with public partners that helps explain what an estimand is and (ii) explore public partner's perspectives on the importance of discussing estimands during trial design. METHODS: An online consultation meeting was held with 5 public partners of mixed age, gender and ethnicities, from various regions of the UK. Public partner opinions were collected and a practical tool describing estimands, drafted before the meeting by the research team, was developed. Afterwards, the tool was refined, and additional feedback sought via email. RESULTS: Public partners want to be involved in estimand discussions. They found an introductory tool, to be presented and described to them by a researcher, helpful for starting a discussion about estimands in a trial design context. They recommended storytelling, analogies and visual aids within the tool. Four topics related to public partners' involvement in defining estimands were identified: (i) the importance of addressing questions that are relevant to patients and public in trials, (ii) involving public partners early on, (iii) a need for education and communication for all stakeholders and (iv) public partners and researchers working together. CONCLUSIONS: We co-developed a tool for researchers and public partners to use to facilitate the involvement of public partners in estimand discussions.

Audit, Feedback, and Education to Improve Quality and Outcomes in Transurethral Resection and Single-Instillation Intravesical Chemotherapy for Nonmuscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Treatment: Protocol for a Multicenter International Observational Study With an Embedded Cluster Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) accounts for 75% of bladder cancers. It is common and costly. Cost and detriment to patient outcomes and quality of life are driven by high recurrence rates and the need for regular invasive surveillance and repeat treatments. There is evidence that the quality of the initial surgical procedure (transurethral resection of bladder tumor [TURBT]) and administration of postoperative bladder chemotherapy significantly reduce cancer recurrence rates and improve outcomes (cancer progression and mortality). There is surgeon-reported evidence that TURBT practice varies significantly across surgeons and sites. There is limited evidence from clinical trials of intravesical chemotherapy that NMIBC recurrence rate varies significantly between sites and that this cannot be accounted for by differences in patient, tumor, or adjuvant treatment factors, suggesting that how the surgery is performed may be a reason for the variation. OBJECTIVE: This study primarily aims to determine if feedback on and education about surgical quality indicators can improve performance and secondarily if this can reduce cancer recurrence rates. Planned secondary analyses aim to determine what surgeon, operative, perioperative, institutional, and patient factors are associated with better achievement of TURBT quality indicators and NMIBC recurrence rates. METHODS: This is an observational, international, multicenter study with an embedded cluster randomized trial of audit, feedback, and education. Sites will be included if they perform TURBT for NMIBC. The study has four phases: (1) site registration and usual practice survey; (2) retrospective audit; (3) randomization to audit, feedback, and education intervention or to no intervention; and (4) prospective audit. Local and national ethical and institutional approvals or exemptions will be obtained at each participating site. RESULTS: The study has 4 coprimary outcomes, which are 4 evidence-based TURBT quality indicators: a surgical performance factor (detrusor muscle resection); an adjuvant treatment factor (intravesical chemotherapy administration); and 2 documentation factors (resection completeness and tumor features). A key secondary outcome is the early cancer recurrence rate. The intervention is a web-based surgical performance feedback dashboard with educational and practical resources for TURBT quality improvement. It will include anonymous site and surgeon-level peer comparison, a performance summary, and targets. The coprimary outcomes will be analyzed at the site level while recurrence rate will be analyzed at the patient level. The study was funded in October 2020 and began data collection in April 2021. As of January 2023, there were 220 hospitals participating and over 15,000 patient records. Projected data collection end date is June 30, 2023. CONCLUSIONS: This study aims to use a distributed collaborative model to deliver a site-level web-based performance feedback intervention to improve the quality of endoscopic bladder cancer surgery. The study is funded and projects to complete data collection in June 2023. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.org NCT05154084; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05154084. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/42254.

Using re-randomisation designs to increase the efficiency and applicability of retention studies within trials: a case study.

BACKGROUND: Poor retention in randomised trials can lead to serious consequences to their validity. Studies within trials (SWATs) are used to identify the most effective interventions to increase retention. Many interventions could be applied at any follow-up time point, but SWATs commonly assess interventions at a single time point, which can reduce efficiency. METHODS: The re-randomisation design allows participants to be re-enrolled and re-randomised whenever a new retention opportunity occurs (i.e. a new follow-up time point where the intervention could be applied). The main advantages are as follows: (a) it allows the estimation of an average effect across time points, thus increasing generalisability; (b) it can be more efficient than a parallel arm trial due to increased sample size; and (c) it allows subgroup analyses to estimate effectiveness at different time points. We present a case study where the re-randomisation design is used in a SWAT. RESULTS: In our case study, the host trial is a dental trial with two available follow-up points. The Sticker SWAT tests whether adding the trial logo's sticker to the questionnaire's envelope will result in a higher response rate compared with not adding the sticker. The primary outcome is the response rate to postal questionnaires. The re-randomisation design could double the available sample size compared to a parallel arm trial, resulting in the ability to detect an effect size around 28% smaller. CONCLUSION: The re-randomisation design can increase the efficiency and generalisability of SWATs for trials with multiple follow-up time points.

How do we know a treatment is good enough? A survey of non-inferiority trials.

BACKGROUND: Non-inferiority and equivalence trials aim to determine whether a new treatment is good enough (non-inferior) or as good as (equivalent to) another treatment. To inform the decision about non-inferiority or equivalence, a margin is used. We aimed to identify the current methods used to determine non-inferiority or equivalence margins, as well as the main challenges and suggestions from trialists. METHODS: We developed an online questionnaire that included both closed and open-ended questions about methods to elicit non-inferiority or equivalence margins, underlying principles, and challenges and suggestions for improvement. We recruited trialists with experience of determining a margin by contacting corresponding authors for non-inferiority or equivalence trials. We used descriptive statistics and content analysis to identify categories in qualitative data. RESULTS: We had forty-one responses, all from non-inferiority trials. More than half of the trials were non-pharmacological (n = 21, 51%), and the most common primary outcome was clinical (n = 29, 71%). The two most used methods to determine the margin were as follows: a review of the evidence base (n = 27, 66%) and opinion seeking methods (n = 24, 59%). From those using reviews, the majority used systematic reviews or reviews of multiple RCTs to determine the margin (n = 17, 63%). From those using opinion seeking methods, the majority involved clinicians with or without other professionals (n = 19, 79%). Respondents reported that patients' opinions on the margin were sought in four trials (16%). Median confidence in overall quality of the margin was 5 out of 7 (maximum confidence); however, around a quarter of the respondents were "completely unconfident" that the margin reflected patient's views. We identified "stakeholder involvement" as the most common category to determine respondent's confidence in the quality of the margins and whether it reflected stakeholder's views. The most common suggestion to improve the definition of margins was "development of methods to involve stakeholders," and the most common challenge identified was "communication of margins." CONCLUSIONS: Responders highlighted the need for clearer guidelines on defining a margin, more and better stakeholder involvement in its selection, and better communication tools that enable discussions about non-inferiority trials with stakeholders. Future research should focus on developing best practice recommendations.

Development of a Root Caries Prediction Model in a Population of Dental Attenders.

Root caries prevalence is increasing as populations age and retain more of their natural dentition. However, there is generally no accepted practice to identify individuals at risk of disease. There is a need for the development of a root caries prediction model to support clinicians to guide targeted prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for root caries in a population of regular dental attenders. Clinical and patient-reported predictors were collected at baseline by routine clinical examination and patient questionnaires. Clinical examinations were conducted at the 4-year timepoint by trained outcome assessors blind to baseline data to record root caries data at two thresholds - root caries present on any teeth (RC > 0) and root caries present on three or more teeth (RC ≥ 3). Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed with the number of participants with root caries at each outcome threshold utilized as the outcome and baseline predictors as the candidate predictors. An automatic backwards elimination process was conducted to select predictors for the final model at each threshold. The sensitivity, specificity, and c-statistic of each model's performance was assessed. A total of 1,432 patient participants were included within this prediction model, with 324 (22.6%) presenting with at least one root caries lesion, and 97 (6.8%) with lesions on three or more teeth. The final prediction model at the RC >0 threshold included increasing age, having ≥9 restored teeth at baseline, smoking, lack of knowledge of spitting toothpaste without rinsing following toothbrushing, decreasing dental anxiety, and worsening OHRQoL. The model sensitivity was 71.4%, specificity 69.5%, and c-statistic 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.81). The predictors included in the final prediction model at the RC ≥ 3 threshold included increasing age, smoking, and lack of knowledge of spitting toothpaste without rinsing following toothbrushing. The model sensitivity was 76.5%, specificity 73.6%, and c-statistic 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.86). To the authors' knowledge, this is the largest published root caries prediction model, with statistics indicating good model fit and providing confidence in its robustness. The performance of the risk model indicates that adults at risk of developing root caries can be accurately identified, with superior performance in the identification of adults at risk of multiple lesions.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of text messages with or without endowment incentives for weight management in men with obesity (Game of Stones): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Obesity increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, mobility problems and some cancers, and its prevalence is rising. Men engage less than women in existing weight loss interventions. Game of Stones builds on a successful feasibility study and aims to find out if automated text messages with or without endowment incentives are effective and cost-effective for weight loss at 12 months compared to a waiting list comparator arm in men with obesity. METHODS: A 3-arm, parallel group, assessor-blind superiority randomised controlled trial with process evaluation will recruit 585 adult men with body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or more living in and around three UK centres (Belfast, Bristol, Glasgow), purposively targeting disadvantaged areas. Intervention groups: (i) automated, theory-informed text messages daily for 12 months plus endowment incentives linked to verified weight loss targets at 3, 6 and 12 months; (ii) the same text messages and weight loss assessment protocol; (iii) comparator group: 12 month waiting list, then text messages for 3 months. The primary outcome is percentage weight change at 12 months from baseline. Secondary outcomes at 12 months are as follows: quality of life, wellbeing, mental health, weight stigma, behaviours, satisfaction and confidence. Follow-up includes weight at 24 months. A health economic evaluation will measure cost-effectiveness over the trial and over modelled lifetime: including health service resource-use and quality-adjusted life years. The cost-utility analysis will report incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years gained. Participant and service provider perspectives will be explored via telephone interviews, and exploratory mixed methods process evaluation analyses will focus on mental health, multiple long-term conditions, health inequalities and implementation strategies. DISCUSSION: The trial will report whether text messages (with and without cash incentives) can help men to lose weight over 1 year and maintain this for another year compared to a comparator group; the costs and benefits to the health service; and men's experiences of the interventions. Process analyses with public involvement and service commissioner input will ensure that this open-source digital self-care intervention could be sustainable and scalable by a range of NHS or public services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 91974895 . Registered on 14/04/2021.

Estimands for factorial trials.

Factorial trials offer an efficient method to evaluate multiple interventions in a single trial, however the use of additional treatments can obscure research objectives, leading to inappropriate analytical methods and interpretation of results. We define a set of estimands for factorial trials, and describe a framework for applying these estimands, with the aim of clarifying trial objectives and ensuring appropriate primary and sensitivity analyses are chosen. This framework is intended for use in factorial trials where the intent is to conduct "two-trials-in-one" (ie, to separately evaluate the effects of treatments A and B), and is comprised of four steps: (i) specifying how additional treatment(s) (eg, treatment B) will be handled in the estimand, and how intercurrent events affecting the additional treatment(s) will be handled; (ii) designating the appropriate factorial estimator as the primary analysis strategy; (iii) evaluating the interaction to assess the plausibility of the assumptions underpinning the factorial estimator; and (iv) performing a sensitivity analysis using an appropriate multiarm estimator to evaluate to what extent departures from the underlying assumption of no interaction may affect results. We show that adjustment for other factors is necessary for noncollapsible effect measures (such as odds ratio), and through a trial re-analysis we find that failure to consider the estimand could lead to inappropriate interpretation of results. We conclude that careful use of the estimands framework clarifies research objectives and reduces the risk of misinterpretation of trial results, and should become a standard part of both the protocol and reporting of factorial trials.

Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study.

BACKGROUND: Patient factors associated with urinary tract cancer can be used to risk stratify patients referred with haematuria, prioritising those with a higher risk of cancer for prompt investigation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model for urinary tract cancer in patients referred with haematuria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective observational study was conducted in 10 282 patients from 110 hospitals across 26 countries, aged ≥16 yr and referred to secondary care with haematuria. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary outcomes were the presence or absence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC], and renal cancer). Mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression was performed with site and country as random effects and clinically important patient-level candidate predictors, chosen a priori, as fixed effects. Predictors were selected primarily using clinical reasoning, in addition to backward stepwise selection. Calibration and discrimination were calculated, and bootstrap validation was performed to calculate optimism. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The unadjusted prevalence was 17.2% (n = 1763) for bladder cancer, 1.20% (n = 123) for UTUC, and 1.00% (n = 103) for renal cancer. The final model included predictors of increased risk (visible haematuria, age, smoking history, male sex, and family history) and reduced risk (previous haematuria investigations, urinary tract infection, dysuria/suprapubic pain, anticoagulation, catheter use, and previous pelvic radiotherapy). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.87). The model is limited to patients without previous urological malignancy. CONCLUSIONS: This cancer prediction model is the first to consider established and novel urinary tract cancer diagnostic markers. It can be used in secondary care for risk stratifying patients and aid the clinician's decision-making process in prioritising patients for investigation. PATIENT SUMMARY: We have developed a tool that uses a person's characteristics to determine the risk of cancer if that person develops blood in the urine (haematuria). This can be used to help prioritise patients for further investigation.

Pulpotomy for the Management of Irreversible Pulpitis in Mature Teeth (PIP): a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Progression of dental caries can result in irreversible pulpal damage. Partial irreversible pulpitis is the initial stage of this damage, confined to the coronal pulp whilst the radicular pulp shows little or no sign of infection. Preserving the pulp with sustained vitality and developing minimally invasive biologically based therapies are key themes within contemporary clinical practice. However, root canal treatment involving complete removal of the pulp is often the only option (other than extraction) given to patients with irreversible pulpitis, with substantial NHS and patient incurred costs. The European Society of Endodontology's (ESE 2019) recent consensus statement recommends full pulpotomy, where the inflamed coronal pulp is removed with the goal of keeping the radicular pulp vital, as a more minimally invasive technique, potentially avoiding complex root canal treatment. Although this technique may be provided in secondary care, it has not been routinely implemented or evaluated in UK General Dental Practice. METHOD: This feasibility study aims to identify and assess in a primary care setting the training needs of general dental practitioners and clinical fidelity of the full pulpotomy intervention, estimate likely eligible patient pool and develop recruitment materials ahead of the main randomised controlled trial comparing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of full pulpotomy compared to root canal treatment in pre/molar teeth of adults 16 years and older showing signs indicative of irreversible pulpitis. The feasibility study will recruit and train 10 primary care dentists in the full pulpotomy technique. Dentists will recruit and provide full pulpotomy to 40 participants (four per practice) with indications of partial irreversible pulpitis. DISCUSSION: The Pulpotomy for the Management of Irreversible Pulpitis in Mature Teeth (PIP) study will address the lack of high-quality evidence in the treatment of irreversible pulpitis, to aid dental practitioners, patients and policymakers in their decision-making. The PIP feasibility study will inform the main study on the practicality of providing both training and provision of the full pulpotomy technique in general dental practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN17973604 . Registered on 28 January 2021. Protocol version Protocol version: 1; date: 03.02.2021.

Non-invasive testing for early detection of neovascular macular degeneration in unaffected second eyes of older adults: EDNA diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration is a leading cause of sight loss, and early detection and treatment is important. For patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration in one eye, it is usual practice to monitor the unaffected eye. The test used to diagnose neovascular age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography, is an invasive test. Non-invasive tests are available, but their diagnostic accuracy is unclear. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the diagnostic monitoring performance of tests for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration. The secondary objectives were the cost-effectiveness of tests and to identify predictive factors of developing neovascular age-related macular degeneration. DESIGN: This was a multicentre, prospective, cohort, comparative diagnostic accuracy study in a monitoring setting for up to 3 years. A Cox regression risk prediction model and a Markov microsimulation model comparing cost-effectiveness of the index tests over 25 years were used. SETTING: This took place in hospital eye services. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were adults (aged 50-95 years) with newly diagnosed (within the previous 6 weeks) neovascular age-related macular degeneration in one eye and an unaffected second (study) eye who were attending for treatment injections in the first eye and who had a study eye baseline visual acuity of ≥ 68 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters. INTERVENTIONS: The index tests were Amsler chart (completed by participants), fundus clinical examination, optical coherence tomography, self-reported vision assessment (completed by participants) and visual acuity. The reference standard was fundus fluorescein angiography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity; the performance of the risk predictor model; and costs and quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In total, 552 out of 578 patients who consented from 24 NHS hospitals (n = 16 ineligible; n = 10 withdrew consent) took part. The mean age of the patients was 77.4 years (standard deviation 7.7 years) and 57.2% were female. For the primary analysis, 464 patients underwent follow-up fundus fluorescein angiography and 120 developed neovascular age-related macular degeneration on fundus fluorescein angiography. The diagnostic accuracy [sensitivity (%) (95% confidence interval); specificity (%) (95% confidence interval)] was as follows: optical coherence tomography 91.7 (85.2 to 95.6); 87.8 (83.8 to 90.9)], fundus clinical examination [53.8 (44.8 to 62.5); 97.6 (95.3 to 98.9)], Amsler [33.7 (25.1 to 43.5); 81.4 (76.4 to 85.5)], visual acuity [30.0 (22.5 to 38.7); 66.3 (61.0 to 71.1)] and self-reported vision [4.2 (1.6 to 9.8); 97.0 (94.6 to 98.5)]. Optical coherence tomography had the highest sensitivity across all secondary analyses. The final prediction model for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the non-affected eye included smoking status, family history of neovascular age-related macular degeneration, the presence of nodular drusen with or without reticular pseudodrusen, and the presence of pigmentary abnormalities [c-statistic 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.71)]. Optical coherence tomography monitoring generated the greatest quality-adjusted life-years gained per patient (optical coherence tomography, 5.830; fundus clinical examination, 5.787; Amsler chart, 5.736, self-reported vision, 5.630; and visual acuity, 5.600) for the lowest health-care and social care costs (optical coherence tomography, £19,406; fundus clinical examination, £19,649; Amsler chart, £19,751; self-reported vision, £20,198; and visual acuity, £20,444) over the lifetime of the simulated cohort. Optical coherence tomography dominated the other tests or had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds (£20,000) across the scenarios explored. LIMITATIONS: The diagnostic performance may be different in an unselected population without any history of neovascular age-related macular degeneration; the prediction model did not include genetic profile data, which might have improved the discriminatory performance. CONCLUSIONS: Optical coherence tomography was the most accurate in diagnosing conversion to neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the fellow eye of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Economic modelling suggests that optical coherence tomography monitoring is cost-effective and leads to earlier diagnosis of and treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients being treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in their first eye. FUTURE WORK: Future works should investigate the role of home monitoring, improved risk prediction models and impact on long-term visual outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study was registered as ISRCTN48855678. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Wet age-related macular degeneration is the leading cause of sight loss in older people. It is diagnosed using fundus fluorescein angiography, which involves photographing the retina after the injection of a dye into a vein in the arm, which may result in allergic reactions. Many people with wet age-related macular degeneration in one eye will also develop it in their second eye. To avoid regular fundus fluorescein angiography, non-invasive tests are used to routinely monitor for wet age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients with wet age-related macular degeneration already in one eye. We studied five commonly used and easily performed non-invasive tests to see which best detected the onset of wet age-related macular degeneration. The five tests were: self-report of visionself-completion of an Amsler charta standard sight testexamination of the retina by a specialistoptical coherence tomography, which is a non-invasive scan of the central retina. If any tests suggested wet age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography was performed to compare results. In total, 552 hospital eye clinic patients who had wet age-related macular degeneration in only one eye took part. Over a 3-year period, wet age-related macular degeneration developed in the second eye in 145 people (26%), of whom 120 had undergone fundus fluorescein angiography. In 25 people with wet age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography was not carried out for safety reasons or because the patient did not want to undergo it. Of all the tests, only optical coherence tomography was good at detecting wet age-related macular degeneration correctly (92% sensitivity) and at detecting those who did not have wet age-related macular degeneration (88% specificity). All other tests either did not detect wet age-related macular degeneration consistently when it occurred or gave a false positive result when it had not occurred. This study confirmed that optical coherence tomography detected wet age-related macular degeneration correctly in the second eye of people with wet age-related macular degeneration in their first eye, and may offer cost saving for the NHS.

Early detection of neovascular age-related macular degeneration: an economic evaluation based on data from the EDNA study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of non-invasive monitoring tests to detect the onset of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) in the unaffected second eye of patients receiving treatment for unilateral nAMD in a UK National Health Service (NHS) hospital outpatient setting. METHODS: A patient-level state transition model was constructed to simulate the onset, detection, and treatment of nAMD in the second eye. Five index tests were compared: self-reported change in visual function, Amsler test, clinic measured change in visual acuity from baseline, fundus assessment by clinical examination or colour photography, and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Diagnosis of nAMD was confirmed by fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA) before prompt initiation of antivascular endothelial growth factor treatment. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs of health and social care were modelled over a 25-year time horizon. RESULTS: SD-OCT generated more QALYs (SD-OCT, 5.830; fundus assessment, 5.787; Amsler grid, 5.736, patient's subjective assessment, 5.630; and visual acuity, 5.600) and lower health and social care costs (SD-OCT, £19 406; fundus assessment, £19 649; Amsler grid, £19 751; patient's subjective assessment, £20 198 and visual acuity, £20 444) per patient compared with other individual monitoring tests. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a high probability (97%-99%) of SD-OCT being the preferred test across a range of cost-effectiveness thresholds (£13 000-£30 000) applied in the UK NHS. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment of the second eye following FFA confirmation of SD-OCT positive findings is expected to maintain better visual acuity and health-related quality of life and may reduce costs of health and social care over the lifetime of patients.