COVID-19 Personal Protective Behaviors during Large Social Events: The Value of Behavioral Observations.

Within the context of reopening society in the summer of 2021, as the UK moved away from 'lockdowns', the Government of Wales piloted the return of organized 'mass gatherings' of people at a number of test events. The current study reports behavioral observations that were made at two of the test events to inform this process. The researchers were particularly interested in four key factors: how (1) context within a venue, (2) environmental design, (3) staffing and social norms, and (4) time across an event, affected the personal protective behaviors of social distancing and face-covering use. Data collection was undertaken by trained observers. Adherence to protective behaviors was generally high, but there is clear evidence that these behaviors were shaped in a systematic way by the environment, situational cues, and the passage of time during the events. Some instances of large-scale non-adherence to personal protective behaviors were documented. An analysis within a dual-process framework suggests ways to understand and respond to supporting target health behaviors in groups of people where intervention is deemed valuable, such as in complex or ambiguous contexts. This is one of the first studies to include a 'true' behavioral measure in understanding human responses to COVID-19. It demonstrates that behavioral observations can add precision and granularity to understanding human behavior in complex real-world contexts. Given the significant physical and mental health burden created acutely and chronically by COVID-19, this work has implications for how governments and organizations support target populations in other complex challenges facing us today, such as in sustainability, and healthy lifestyle behaviors. An individual's intentions are not always matched by their actions, and so the findings support a balanced liberal paternalistic approach where system-level changes support appropriate individual-level decisions to engender collective responsibility and action.

Protocol for expansion of an existing national monthly survey of smoking behaviour and alcohol use in England to Scotland and Wales: The Smoking and Alcohol Toolkit Study.

Background The Smoking and Alcohol Toolkit Study (STS/ATS) in England has delivered timely insights to inform and evaluate strategies aimed at reducing tobacco smoking- and alcohol-related harm. From the end of 2020 until at least 2024 the STS/ATS is expanding to Scotland and Wales to include all constituent nations in Great Britain. Expanding data collection to Scotland and Wales will permit the evaluation of how smoking and alcohol related behaviours respond to divergent policy scenarios across the devolved nations. Methods The STS/ATS consists of monthly cross-sectional household interviews (computer or telephone assisted) of representative samples of adults in Great Britain aged 16+ years. Commencing in October 2020 each month a new sample of approximately 1700 adults in England, 450 adults in Scotland and 300 adults in Wales complete the survey (~n = 29,400 per year). The expansion of the survey to Scotland and Wales has been funded for the collection of at least 48 waves of data across four years. The data collected cover a broad range of smoking and alcohol-related parameters (including but not limited to smoking status, cigarette/nicotine dependence, route to quit smoking, prevalence and frequency of hazardous drinking, attempts and motivation to reduce alcohol consumption, help sought and motives for attempts to reduce alcohol intake) and socio-demographic characteristics (including but not limited to age, gender, region, socio-economic position) and will be reviewed monthly and refined in response to evolving policy needs and public interests. All data analyses will be pre-specified and available on a free online platform. A dedicated website will publish descriptive data on important trends each month. Discussion The Smoking and Alcohol Toolkit Study will provide timely monitoring of smoking and alcohol related behaviours to inform and evaluate national policies across Great Britain.

Developing a population data science approach to assess increased risk of COVID-19 associated with attending large events.

Introduction: In summer 2021, as rates of COVID-19 decreased and social restrictions were relaxed, live entertainment and sporting events were resumed. In order to inform policy on the safe re-introduction of spectator events, a number of test events were organised in Wales, ranging in setting, size and audience. Objectives: To design and test a method to assess whether test events were associated with an increase in risk of confirmed COVID-19, in order to inform policy. Methods: We designed a cohort study with fixed follow-up time and measured relative risk of confirmed COVID-19 in those attending two large sporting events. First, we linked ticketing information to individual records on the Welsh Demographic Service (WDS), a register of all people living in Wales and registered with a GP, and identified NHS numbers for attendees. Where NHS numbers were not found we used combinations of other identifiers such as email, name, postcode and/or mobile number. We then linked attendees to routine SARS-CoV-2 test data to calculate positivity rates in people attending each event for the period one to fourteen days following the event. We selected a comparison cohort from WDS for each event, individually matched by age band, gender and locality of residence. As many people attended events in family groups we explored the possibility of also matching on household clusters within the comparison group. Risk ratios were then computed for the two events. Results: We successfully assigned NHS numbers to 91% and 84% of people attending the two events respectively. Other identifiers were available for the remainder. Only a small number of attendees (<10) had a record of confirmed COVID-19 following attendance at each event (14 day cumulative incidence: 36 and 26 per 100,000, respectively). There was no evidence of significantly increased risk of COVID-19 at either event. However, the event that didn't include pre-event testing in their mitigations, had a higher risk ratio (3.0 compared to 0.3). Conclusions: We demonstrate the potential for using population data science methods to inform policy. We conclude that, at that point in the epidemic, and with the mitigations that were in place, attending large outdoor sporting events did not significantly increase risk of COVID-19. However, these analyses were carried out between epidemic waves when background incidence and testing rate was low, and need to be repeated during periods of greater transmission. Having a mechanism to identify attendees at events is necessary to calculate risk and feasibility and acceptability of data sharing should be considered.

Welsh Primary Schoolchildren's Perceptions of Electronic Cigarettes: A Mixed Methods Study.

There are concerns that the growing popularity of e-cigarettes promotes experimentation among children. Given the influence of the early years on attitude and habit formation, better understanding of how younger children perceive vaping before experimentation begins is needed, to prevent uptake and inform tobacco control strategies. We explored Welsh primary schoolchildren's (aged 7-11) awareness of e-cigarettes relative to tobacco smoking, their understanding of the perceived risks and benefits and their intentions and beliefs about vaping. Data was collected using a mix of methods in June and July 2017 from 8 purposively selected primary schools across Wales. Four hundred and ninety-five children (52% female) aged 7 years (n = 165), 9 years (n = 185) and 11 years (n = 145) completed a class-administered booklet encompassing a draw and write exercise and survey. Ninety-six children participated in 24 peer discussion groups comprised of 2 boys and 2 girls from each year group. Data were analysed independently and findings triangulated. Survey analyses used frequencies, descriptive statistics and chi-squared tests. Content analysis was undertaken on the draw and write data and peer discussion groups were analysed thematically. Study findings highlight that primary schoolchildren have general awareness of e-cigarettes. Vaping was perceived to be healthier than smoking and there was some recognition that e-cigarettes were used for smoking cessation. Understanding of any health harms was limited. Few children intended to smoke or vape in the future but almost half thought it was okay for grownups. Children's perceptions were influenced by exposure through family and friends. Findings suggest a need for e-cigarette education in primary schools, to highlight the associated risks of e-cigarette experimentation including the potential for tobacco initiation.

COVID-19 contact tracing: The Welsh experience.

OBJECTIVE: Contact tracing is one of the key public health response actions to control the outbreak of a novel virus. This paper describes the preparation process, activation and operational experience for contact tracing of individuals in response to confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wales. STUDY DESIGN: A descriptive approach has been adopted and lessons learned from our initial public health response to COVID-19 will be used to develop a new operational model for contact tracing in Wales. METHODS: As part of preparations for the response in Wales, Public Health Wales formed a Contact Tracing Cell (CTC) ready to be mobilised in the event of a confirmed case. RESULTS: Trial activation of the CTC during the preparation period helped to resolve some issues before 'real' activation. A highly flexible approach was needed due to the constant changes to the guidance that required rapid understanding, updates to pathways and clear communication to contact tracers. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience and recommendations may benefit future efforts to control the spread of the virus in Wales and elsewhere, particularly in supporting COVID-19 outbreaks in enclosed settings such as care homes or in geographically localised areas. Learning from the initial public health response to COVID-19 will guide the delivery and implementation of a new contact tracing model as we move to a later stage of the pandemic when containment measures become feasible in localised outbreaks. This may include scaling-up the CTC to mobilise contact tracers to local teams and the potential use of digital technologies to support the next operational model of the CTC in Wales.

Clinician perception of a novel cardiovascular lifestyle prescription form in the primary and secondary care setting in Wales, UK.

ISSUES ADDRESSED: To establish the views of clinicians on the feasibility and effectiveness of using a novel lifestyle prescription form (LRx) which requires co-signing by clinician and patient and is uniquely based on the design of the standard drug prescription form, in the primary and secondary health care settings. METHODS: Thirty-six participants were issued with a "prescription" pad, of 20 LRx scripts, for 1 month and requested to issue an LRx prescription to patients they deemed suitable during their consultation, recording their reason for use of the LRx. Each clinician was then asked to complete a comprehensive feedback questionnaire. RESULTS: Feedback of the LRx was overwhelmingly positive. The script was viewed as a more effective way to convey and support cardiovascular lifestyle advice, than usual care. Forty per cent (196 of 480) of the LRx scripts that were provided to primary and secondary care clinicians during the study period were issued. In most consultations, the LRx script was issued to reaffirm dietary advice. Nurses and health care assistants were more likely than doctors to use the LRx in response to a request for lifestyle advice from a patient. CONCLUSIONS: The LRx may be a useful addition to the clinician's communication toolkit to stimulate lifestyle behaviour changes in their patients. The main barrier to use in the study was lack of consultation time. SO WHAT?: Issuing the LRx is a method of solidifying lifestyle advice that clinicians could utilise, providing them with another tool in their behaviour change arsenal, particularly with familiarity with the tool.