When will the Glomerular Filtration Rate in Former Preterm Neonates Catch up with Their Term Peers?

AIMS: Whether and when glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in preterms catches up with term peers is unknown. This study aims to develop a GFR maturation model for (pre)term-born individuals from birth to 18 years of age. Secondarily, the function is applied to data of different renally excreted drugs. METHODS: We combined published inulin clearance values and serum creatinine (Scr) concentrations in (pre)term born individuals throughout childhood. Inulin clearance was assumed to be equal to GFR, and Scr to reflect creatinine synthesis rate/GFR. We developed a GFR function consisting of GFRbirth (GFR at birth), and an Emax model dependent on PNA (with GFRmax, PNA50 (PNA at which half of GFR max is reached) and Hill coefficient). The final GFR model was applied to predict gentamicin, tobramycin and vancomycin concentrations. RESULT: In the GFR model, GFRbirth varied with birthweight linearly while in the PNA-based Emax equation, GA was the best covariate for PNA50, and current weight for GFRmax. The final model showed that for a child born at 26 weeks GA, absolute GFR is 18%, 63%, 80%, 92% and 96% of the GFR of a child born at 40 weeks GA at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 12 years, respectively. PopPK models with the GFR maturation equations predicted concentrations of renally cleared antibiotics across (pre)term-born neonates until 18 years well. CONCLUSIONS: GFR of preterm individuals catches up with term peers at around three years of age, implying reduced dosages of renally cleared drugs should be considered below this age.

Advances in pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling for pediatric drug development: extrapolations and exposure-response analyses.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacokinetic (PK)-Pharmacodynamic (PD) and exposure-response (E-R) modeling are critical parts of pediatric drug development. By integrating available knowledge and supportive data to support the design of future studies and pediatric dose selection, these techniques increase the efficiency of pediatric drug development and lowers the risk of exposing pediatric study participants to suboptimal or unsafe dose regimens. AREAS COVERED: The role of PK, PK-PD and E-R modeling within pediatric drug development and pediatric dose selection is discussed. These models allow investigation of the impact of age and bodyweight on PK and PD in children, despite the often sparse data on the pediatric population. Also discussed is how E-R analyses strengthen the evidence basis to support (full or partial) extrapolation of drug efficacy from adults to children, and between different pediatric age groups. EXPERT OPINION: Accelerated pediatric drug development and optimized pediatric dosing guidelines are expected from three future developments: (1) Increased focus on E-R modeling of currently approved drugs in children resulting in (novel) E-R modeling techniques and best practices, (2) increased use of real-world data for E-R (3) increased implementation of available population PK and E-R information in pediatric drug dosing guidelines.

The Effect of Ibuprofen Exposure and Patient Characteristics on the Closure of the Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Preterm Infants.

Spontaneous closure of the ductus arteriosus depends on gestational age (GA) and might be delayed in preterm infants, resulting in patent ductus arteriosus (PDA). Ibuprofen can be administered to enhance closure, but the exposure-response relationship between ibuprofen and the closure of PDA remains uncertain. We investigated the influence of patient characteristics and ibuprofen exposure on ductus closure. A cohort of preterm infants with PDA and treated with ibuprofen was analyzed. Ibuprofen exposure was based on a previously developed population pharmacokinetic study that was in part based on the same study population. Logistic regression analyses were performed with ductus closure (yes/no) as outcome, to analyze the contribution of ibuprofen exposure and patient characteristics. In our cohort of 263 preterm infants (median GA 26.1 (range: 23.7-30.0) weeks, birthweight 840 (365-1,470) g) receiving ibuprofen treatment consisting of 3 doses that was initiated at a median postnatal age (PNAstart ) of 5 (1-32) days, PDA was closed in 55 (21%) patients. Exposure to ibuprofen strongly decreased with PNAstart . Overall, the probability of ductus closure decreased with PNAstart (odds ratio (OR): 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8) and Z-score for birthweight (ZBirthweight-for-GA ; OR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6-1.0), and increased with GA (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9). For patients with PNAstart  < 1 week, concentrations of ibuprofen, GA, and ZBirthweight-for-GA predicted probability of ductus closure. During a window of opportunity for ductus closure within the first days of life, probability of closure depends on GA, ZBirthweight-for-GA , and ibuprofen exposure. Increased, yet unstudied dosages might increase the effectivity of ibuprofen beyond the first week of life.

Quantifying the Pharmacodynamics of Morphine in the Treatment of Postoperative Pain in Preverbal Children.

While the pharmacokinetics of morphine in children have been studied extensively, little is known about the pharmacodynamics of morphine in this population. Here, we quantified the concentration-effect relationship of morphine for postoperative pain in preverbal children between 0 and 3 years of age. For this, we applied item response theory modeling in the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis of COMFORT-Behavior (COMFORT-B) scale data from 2 previous clinical studies. In the model, we identified a sigmoid maximal efficacy model for the effect of morphine and found that in 26% of children, increasing morphine concentrations were not associated with lower pain scores (nonresponders to morphine up-titration). In responders to morphine up-titration, the COMFORT-B score slowly decreases with increasing morphine concentrations at morphine concentrations >20 ng/mL. In nonresponding children, no decrease in COMFORT-B score is expected. In general, lower baseline COMFORT-B scores (2.1 points on average) in younger children (postnatal age <10.3 days) were found. Based on the model, we conclude that the percentage of children at a desirable COMFORT-B score is maximized at a morphine concentration between 5 and 30 ng/mL for children aged <10 days, and between 5 and 40 ng/mL for children >10 days. These findings support a dosing regimen previously suggested by Krekels et al, which would put >95% of patients within this morphine target concentration range at steady state. Our modeling approach provides a promising platform for pharmacodynamic research of analgesics and sedatives in children.

Kinetics of myelin breakdown products: A labeling study in patients with progressive multiple sclerosis.

The majority of disease modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) reduce inflammation, but do no't target remyelination. Development of remyelinating therapies will benefit from a method to quantify myelin kinetics in patients with MS. We labeled myelin in vivo with deuterium, and modeled kinetics of myelin breakdown products ß-galactosylceramide (ß-GalC) and N-Octadecanoyl-sulfatide (NO-Sulf). Five patients with MS received 120 ml 70% D2 O daily for 70 days and were compared with six healthy subjects who previously received the same procedure. Mass spectrometry and compartmental modeling were used to quantify the turnover rate of ß-GalC and NO-Sulf in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Turnover rate constants of the fractions of ß-GalC and NO-Sulf with non-negligible turnover were 0.00186 and 0.00714, respectively, in both healthy subjects and patients with MS. The turnover half-life of ß-GalC and NO-Sulf was calculated as 373 days and 96.5 days, respectively. The effect of MS on the NO-Sulf (49.4% lower fraction with non-negligible turnover) was more pronounced compared to the effect on ß-GalC turnover (18.3% lower fraction with non-negligible turnover). Kinetics of myelin breakdown products in the CSF are different in patients with MS compared with healthy subjects. This may be caused by slower myelin production in these patients, by a higher level of degradation of a more stable component of myelin, or, most likely, by a combination of these two processes. Labeling myelin breakdown products is a useful method that can be used to quantify myelin turnover in patients with progressive MS and can therefore be used in proof-of-concept studies with remyelination therapies.

Midazolam Infusion and Disease Severity Affect the Level of Sedation in Children: A Parametric Time-to-Event Analysis.

AIM: In critically ill mechanically ventilated children, midazolam is used first line for sedation, however its exact sedative effects have been difficult to quantify. In this analysis, we use parametric time-to-event (PTTE) analysis to quantify the effects of midazolam in critically ill children. METHODS: In the PTTE analysis, data was analyzed from a published study in mechanically ventilated children in which blinded midazolam or placebo infusions were administered during a sedation interruption phase until, based on COMFORT-B and NISS scores, patients became undersedated and unblinded midazolam was restarted. Using NONMEM® v.7.4.3., restart of unblinded midazolam was analysed as event. Patients in the trial were divided into internal and external validation cohorts prior to analysis. RESULTS: Data contained 138 events from 79 individuals (37 blinded midazolam; 42 blinded placebo). In the PTTE model, the baseline hazard was best described by a constant function. Midazolam reduced the hazard for restart of unblinded midazolam due to undersedation by 51%. In the blinded midazolam group, time to midazolam restart was 26 h versus 58 h in patients with low versus high disease severity upon admission (PRISM II < 10 versus > 21), respectively. For blinded placebo, these times were 14 h and 33 h, respectively. The model performed well in an external validation with 42 individuals. CONCLUSION: The PTTE analysis effectively quantified the effect of midazolam in prolonging sedation and also the influence of disease severity on sedation in mechanically ventilated critically ill children, and provides a valuable tool to quantify the effect of sedatives. Clinical trial number and registry URL: Netherlands Trial Register, Trial NL1913 (NTR2030), date registered 28 September 2009 https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/1913 .

Towards Evidence-Based Weaning: a Mechanism-Based Pharmacometric Model to Characterize Iatrogenic Withdrawal Syndrome in Critically Ill Children.

For the management of iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome (IWS) in children, a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of IWS of commonly used opioids and sedatives is lacking. Here, we introduce a new mechanism-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling approach for studying IWS in pediatric clinical datasets. One thousand seven hundred eighty-two NRSwithdrawal scores of IWS severity were analyzed, which were collected from 81 children (age range: 1 month-18 years) that received opioids or sedatives by continuous infusion for 5 days or more. These data were successfully fitted with a PKPD model consisting of a plasma and a dependence compartment that well characterized the dynamics of IWS from morphine, fentanyl, and ketamine. The results suggest that (1) instead of decreasing the infusion rate by a set percentage at set intervals, it would be better to lengthen the weaning period when higher infusion rates are administered prior to weaning; (2) for fentanyl specifically, the risk of IWS might be lower when weaning with smaller dose reductions every 12 h instead of weaning with greater dose reductions every 48 h. The developed PKPD model can be used to evaluate the risk of IWS over time and the extent to which it is affected by different weaning strategies. The results yield hypotheses that could guide future clinical research on optimal weaning strategies. The mechanism-based PKPD modeling approach can be applied in other datasets to characterize the IWS dynamics of other drugs used in pediatric intensive care.

Dosing Recommendations for Vancomycin in Children and Adolescents with Varying Levels of Obesity and Renal Dysfunction: a Population Pharmacokinetic Study in 1892 Children Aged 1-18 Years.

Vancomycin is an effective but potentially nephrotoxic antibiotic commonly used for severe infections. Dosing guidelines for vancomycin in obese children and adolescents with or without renal impairment are currently lacking. This study describes the pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in a large pediatric cohort with varying degrees of obesity and renal function to design practical dosing guidelines for this population. A multi-center retrospective population pharmacokinetic study was conducted using data from patients aged 1-18 years who received >1 dose of vancomycin and had ≥1 vancomycin concentration measured between January 2006 and December 2012. Besides pharmacokinetic data, age, gender, body weight, creatinine clearance (CLcr, bedside Schwartz equation), ward, race, and neutropenic status were collected. Population pharmacokinetic analysis and simulations were performed using NONMEM7.4. A total of 1892 patients (5524 samples) were included, with total body weight (TBW) ranging 6-188 kg (1344 normal weight, 247 overweight, and 301 obese patients) and CLcr down to 8.6 mL/min/1.73 m2. The two-compartment model, with clearance (CL) significantly increasing with TBW and CLcr, central and peripheral volume of distribution and inter-compartmental clearance increasing with TBW, performed well for all age, weight, and renal function ranges. A dosing guideline is proposed that integrates body weight and CLcr resulting in effective and safe exposures across all ages, body weight, and renal functions in the pediatric population. We have characterized the full pharmacokinetic profile of vancomycin in obese children and adolescents aged 1-18 years and propose a practical dosing guideline that integrates both body weight and renal function.

Postoperative breakthrough pain in paediatric cardiac surgery not reduced by increased morphine concentrations.

BACKGROUND: Morphine is commonly used for postoperative analgesia in children. Here we studied the pharmacodynamics of morphine in children after cardiac surgery receiving protocolized morphine. METHODS: Data on morphine rescue requirements guided by validated pain scores in children (n = 35, 3-36 months) after cardiac surgery receiving morphine as loading dose (100 µg kg-1) with continuous infusion (40 µg kg-1 h-1) from a previous study on morphine pharmacokinetics were analysed using repeated time-to-event (RTTE) modelling. RESULTS: During the postoperative period (38 h (IQR 23-46)), 130 morphine rescue events (4 (IQR 1-5) per patient) mainly occurred in the first 24 h (107/130) at a median morphine concentration of 29.5 ng ml-1 (range 7-180 ng ml-1). In the RTTE model, the hazard of rescue morphine decreased over time (half-life 18 h; P < 0.001), while the hazard for rescue morphine (21.9% at 29.5 ng ml-1) increased at higher morphine concentrations (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study on protocolized morphine analgesia in children, rescue morphine was required at a wide range of morphine concentrations and further increase of the morphine concentration did not lead to a decrease in hazard. Future studies should focus on a multimodal approach using other opioids or other analgesics to treat breakthrough pain in children. IMPACT: In children receiving continuous morphine infusion, administration of rescue morphine is an indicator for insufficient effect or an event. Morphine rescue events were identified at a wide range of morphine concentrations upon a standardized pain protocol consisting of continuous morphine infusion and morphine as rescue boluses. The expected number of rescue morphine events was found to increase at higher morphine concentrations. Instead of exploring more aggressive morphine dosing, future research should focus on a multimodal approach to treat breakthrough pain in children.

Sedation With Midazolam After Cardiac Surgery in Children With and Without Down Syndrome: A Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of IV midazolam after cardiac surgery between children with and without Down syndrome. DESIGN: Prospective, single-center observational trial. SETTING: PICU in a university-affiliated pediatric teaching hospital. PATIENTS: Twenty-one children with Down syndrome and 17 without, 3-36 months, scheduled for cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. INTERVENTIONS: Postoperatively, nurses regularly assessed the children's pain and discomfort with the validated COMFORT-Behavioral scale and Numeric Rating Scale for pain. A loading dose of morphine (100 µg/kg) was administered after coming off bypass; thereafter, morphine infusion was commenced at 40 µg/kg/hr. Midazolam was started if COMFORT-Behavioral scale score of greater than 16 and Numeric Rating Scale score of less than 4 (suggestive of undersedation). Plasma midazolam and metabolite concentrations were measured for population pharmacokinetic- and pharmacodynamic analysis using nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NONMEM) (Version VI; GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD) software. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-six children (72%) required midazolam postoperatively (15 with Down syndrome and 11 without; p = 1.00). Neither the cumulative midazolam dose (p = 0.61) nor the time elapsed before additional sedation was initiated (p = 0.71), statistically significantly differed between children with and without Down syndrome. Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics analysis revealed no statistically significant differences between the children with and without Down syndrome. Bodyweight was a significant covariate for the clearance of 1-OH-midazolam to 1-OH-glucuronide (p = 0.003). Pharmacodynamic analysis revealed a marginal effect of the midazolam concentration on the COMFORT-Behavioral score. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of children with and without Down syndrome required additional sedation after cardiac surgery. This pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis does not provide evidence for different dosing of midazolam in children with Down syndrome after cardiac surgery.

Predicting Unacceptable Pain in Cardiac Surgery Patients Receiving Morphine Maintenance and Rescue Doses: A Model-Based Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Optimal analgesic treatment following cardiac surgery is crucial for both patient comfort and successful postoperative recovery. While knowledge of both the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of analgesics is required to predict optimal drug dosing, models quantifying the pharmacodynamics are scarce. Here, we quantify the pharmacodynamics of morphine by modeling the need for rescue morphine to treat unacceptable pain in 118 patients after cardiac surgery. METHODS: The rescue morphine event data were analyzed with repeated time-to-event (RTTE) modeling using NONMEM. Postoperative pain titration protocol consisted of continuous morphine infusions (median duration 20.5 hours) with paracetamol 4 times daily and rescue morphine in case of unacceptable pain (numerical rating scale ≥4). RESULTS: Patients had a median age of 73 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 63-77) and median bodyweight of 80 kg (IQR: 72-90 kg). Most patients (55%) required at least 1 rescue morphine dose. The hazard for rescue morphine following cardiac surgery was found to be significantly influenced by time after surgery, a day/night cycle with a peak at 23:00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 19:35-02:03) each day, and an effect of morphine concentration with 50% hazard reduction at 9.3 ng·mL-1 (95% CI, 6.7-16). CONCLUSIONS: The pharmacodynamics of morphine after cardiac surgery was successfully quantified using RTTE modeling. Future studies can be used to expand the model to better predict morphine's pharmacodynamics on the individual level and to include the pharmacodynamics of other analgesics so that improved postoperative pain treatment protocols can be developed.

Exploring the Relationship Between Morphine Concentration and Oversedation in Children After Cardiac Surgery.

Titrating analgesic and sedative drugs in pediatric intensive care remains a challenge for caregivers due to the lack of pharmacodynamic knowledge in this population. The aim of the current study is to explore the concentration-effect relationship for morphine-associated oversedation after cardiac surgery in children aged 3 months to 3 years. Data on morphine dosing, as well as morphine plasma concentrations, were available from a previous study on the pharmacokinetics of morphine after cardiac surgery in children. Oversedation was defined as scores below 11 on the validated COMFORT-behavioral scale. Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling was performed in NONMEM 7.3. The probability of oversedation as a function of morphine concentration was best described using a step function in which the EC50 was 46.3 ng/mL. At morphine concentrations below the EC50 , the probability of oversedation was 2.9% (0.4& to 18%), whereas above the EC50 percentages were 13% (1.9% to 52%) (median value [95% prediction interval from interindividual variability]). Additionally, the risk of oversedation was found to be increased during the first hours after surgery (P < .001) and was significantly lower during mechanical ventilation (P < .005). We conclude that morphine concentrations above approximately 45 ng/mL may increase the probability of oversedation in children after cardiac surgery. The clinician must evaluate, on a case-by-case basis, whether the analgesic benefits arising from dosing regimen associated with such concentrations outweigh the risks.

The effect of food and formulation on the population pharmacokinetics of cholesteryl ester transferase protein inhibitor DRL-17822 in healthy male volunteers.

We aimed to characterise the population pharmacokinetics of cholesteryl ester transferase protein inhibitor DRL-17822 in healthy males and explore the effect of food and formulation on the oral absorption of DRL-17822 in 4 phase I studies. DRL-17822 was dosed orally (2-1000 mg) in 2 different drug formulations (nanocrystal formulation and amorphous solid dispersion formulation) after either an overnight fast, or a low-fat, continental or high-fat breakfast. A 2-compartment model with 6 transit absorption compartments best characterised the data. Additionally, a strong interaction of food and formulation on bioavailability was observed and parsimoniously characterised in the model by binning combinations of food state and formulation with similar bio-availabilities. The final model adequately characterised the pharmacokinetic data of DRL-17822 in healthy males including the complex interaction of food and drug formulation. The amorphous solid dispersion formulation has a lower food effect on bioavailability compared with the nanocrystal formulation.

Beyond the Randomized Clinical Trial: Innovative Data Science to Close the Pediatric Evidence Gap.

Despite the application of advanced statistical and pharmacometric approaches to pediatric trial data, a large pediatric evidence gap still remains. Here, we discuss how to collect more data from children by using real-world data from electronic health records, mobile applications, wearables, and social media. The large datasets collected with these approaches enable and may demand the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to allow the data to be analyzed for decision making. Applications of this approach are presented, which include the prediction of future clinical complications, medical image analysis, identification of new pediatric end points and biomarkers, the prediction of treatment nonresponders, and the prediction of placebo-responders for trial enrichment. Finally, we discuss how to bring machine learning from science to pediatric clinical practice. We conclude that advantage should be taken of the current opportunities offered by innovations in data science and machine learning to close the pediatric evidence gap.

Population pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in obesity: Finding the optimal dose for (morbidly) obese individuals.

AIMS: For vancomycin treatment in obese patients, there is no consensus on the optimal dose that will lead to the pharmacodynamic target (area under the curve 400-700 mg h L-1 ). This prospective study quantifies vancomycin pharmacokinetics in morbidly obese and nonobese individuals, in order to guide vancomycin dosing in the obese. METHODS: Morbidly obese individuals (n = 20) undergoing bariatric surgery and nonobese healthy volunteers (n = 8; total body weight [TBW] 60.0-234.6 kg) received a single vancomycin dose (obese: 12.5 mg kg-1 , maximum 2500 mg; nonobese: 1000 mg) with plasma concentrations measured over 48 h (11-13 samples per individual). Modelling, internal validation, external validation using previously published data and simulations (n = 10.000 individuals, TBW 60-230 kg) were performed using NONMEM. RESULTS: In a 3-compartment model, peripheral volume of distribution and clearance increased with TBW (both p < 0.001), which was confirmed in the external validation. A dose of 35 mg kg-1 day-1 (maximum 5500 mg/day) resulted in a > 90% target attainment (area under the curve > 400 mg h L-1 ) in individuals up to 200 kg, with corresponding trough concentrations of 5.7-14.6 mg L-1 (twice daily dosing). For continuous infusion, a loading dose of 1500 mg is required for steady state on day 1. CONCLUSION: In this prospective, rich sampling pharmacokinetic study, vancomycin clearance was well predicted using TBW. We recommend that in obese individuals without renal impairment, vancomycin should be dosed as 35 mg kg-1 day-1 (maximized at 5500 mg/day). When given over 2 daily doses, trough concentrations of 5.7-14.6 mg L-1 correspond to the target exposure in obese individuals.

Supervised Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling of Pediatric Iatrogenic Withdrawal Symptoms.

Item-level data from composite scales can be analyzed with pharmacometric item response theory (IRT) models to improve the quantification of disease severity compared with the use of total composite scores. However, regular IRT models assume unidimensionality, which is violated in the scale measuring iatrogenic withdrawal in children because some items are also affected by pain, undersedation, or delirium. Here, we compare regular IRT modelling of pediatric iatrogenic withdrawal symptom data with two new analysis approaches in which the latent variable is guided towards the condition of interest using numerical withdrawal severity scored by nurses as a "supervising variable:" supervised IRT (sIRT) and supervised multi-dimensional (smIRT) modelling. In this example, in which the items scores are affected by multiple conditions, regular IRT modeling is worse to quantify disease severity than the total composite score, whereas improved performance compared with the composite score is observed for the sIRT and smIRT models.

A Prospective Clinical Study Characterizing the Influence of Morbid Obesity on the Pharmacokinetics of Gentamicin: Towards Individualized Dosing in Obese Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Gentamicin is an aminoglycoside antibiotic predominantly used in bloodstream infections. Although the prevalence of obesity is increasing dramatically, there is no consensus on how to adjust the dose in obese individuals. In this prospective clinical study, we study the pharmacokinetics of gentamicin in morbidly obese and non-obese individuals to develop a dosing algorithm that results in adequate drug exposure across body weights. METHODS: Morbidly obese subjects undergoing bariatric surgery and non-obese healthy volunteers received one intravenous dose of gentamicin (obese: 5 mg/kg based on lean body weight, non-obese: 5 mg/kg based on total body weight [TBW]) with subsequent 24-h sampling. All individuals had a normal renal function. Statistical analysis, modelling and Monte Carlo simulations were performed using R version 3.4.4 and NONMEM® version 7.3. RESULTS: A two-compartment model best described the data. TBW was the best predictor for both clearance [CL = 0.089 × (TBW/70)0.73] and central volume of distribution [Vc = 11.9 × (TBW/70)1.25] (both p < 0.001). Simulations showed how gentamicin exposure changes across the weight range with currently used dosing algorithms and illustrated that using a nomogram based on a 'dose weight' [70 × (TBW/70)0.73] will lead to similar exposure across the entire population. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in morbidly obese and non-obese individuals ranging from 53 to 221 kg we identified body weight as an important determinant for both gentamicin CL and Vc. Using a body weight-based dosing algorithm, optimized exposure across the entire population can be achieved, thereby potentially improving efficacy and safety of gentamicin in the obese and morbidly obese population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered in the Dutch Trial Registry (NTR6058).

The Influence of Normalization Weight in Population Pharmacokinetic Covariate Models.

In covariate (sub)models of population pharmacokinetic models, most covariates are normalized to the median value; however, for body weight, normalization to 70 kg or 1 kg is often applied. In this article, we illustrate the impact of normalization weight on the precision of population clearance (CLpop) parameter estimates. The influence of normalization weight (70, 1 kg or median weight) on the precision of the CLpop estimate, expressed as relative standard error (RSE), was illustrated using data from a pharmacokinetic study in neonates with a median weight of 2.7 kg. In addition, a simulation study was performed to show the impact of normalization to 70 kg in pharmacokinetic studies with paediatric or obese patients. The RSE of the CLpop parameter estimate in the neonatal dataset was lowest with normalization to median weight (8.1%), compared with normalization to 1 kg (10.5%) or 70 kg (48.8%). Typical clearance (CL) predictions were independent of the normalization weight used. Simulations showed that the increase in RSE of the CLpop estimate with 70 kg normalization was highest in studies with a narrow weight range and a geometric mean weight away from 70 kg. When, instead of normalizing with median weight, a weight outside the observed range is used, the RSE of the CLpop estimate will be inflated, and should therefore not be used for model selection. Instead, established mathematical principles can be used to calculate the RSE of the typical CL (CLTV) at a relevant weight to evaluate the precision of CL predictions.

Covariates in Pharmacometric Repeated Time-to-Event Models: Old and New (Pre)Selection Tools.

During covariate modeling in pharmacometrics, computational time can be reduced by using a fast preselection tool to identify a subset of promising covariates that are to be tested with the more computationally demanding likelihood ratio test (LRT), which is considered to be the standard for covariate selection. There is however a lack of knowledge on best practices for covariate (pre)selection in pharmacometric repeated time-to-event (RTTE) models. Therefore, we aimed to systematically evaluate the performance of three covariate (pre)selection tools for RTTE models: the likelihood ratio test (LRT), the empirical Bayes estimates (EBE) test, and a novel Schoenfeld-like residual test. This was done in simulated datasets with and without a "true" time-constant covariate, and both in the presence and absence of high EBE shrinkage. In scenarios with a "true" covariate effect, all tools had comparable power to detect this effect. In scenarios without a "true" covariate effect, the false positive rates of the LRT and the Schoenfeld-like residual test were slightly inflated to 5.7% and 7.2% respectively, while the EBE test had no inflated false positive rate. The presence of high EBE shrinkage (> 40%) did not affect the performance of any of the covariate (pre)selection tools. We found the EBE test to be a fast and accurate tool for covariate preselection in RTTE models. The novel Schoenfeld-like residual test proposed here had a similar performance in the tested scenarios and might be applied more readily to time-varying covariates, such as drug concentration and dynamic biomarkers.

Kernel-Based Visual Hazard Comparison (kbVHC): a Simulation-Free Diagnostic for Parametric Repeated Time-to-Event Models.

Repeated time-to-event (RTTE) models are the preferred method to characterize the repeated occurrence of clinical events. Commonly used diagnostics for parametric RTTE models require representative simulations, which may be difficult to generate in situations with dose titration or informative dropout. Here, we present a novel simulation-free diagnostic tool for parametric RTTE models; the kernel-based visual hazard comparison (kbVHC). The kbVHC aims to evaluate whether the mean predicted hazard rate of a parametric RTTE model is an adequate approximation of the true hazard rate. Because the true hazard rate cannot be directly observed, the predicted hazard is compared to a non-parametric kernel estimator of the hazard rate. With the degree of smoothing of the kernel estimator being determined by its bandwidth, the local kernel bandwidth is set to the lowest value that results in a bootstrap coefficient of variation (CV) of the hazard rate that is equal to or lower than a user-defined target value (CVtarget). The kbVHC was evaluated in simulated scenarios with different number of subjects, hazard rates, CVtarget values, and hazard models (Weibull, Gompertz, and circadian-varying hazard). The kbVHC was able to distinguish between Weibull and Gompertz hazard models, even when the hazard rate was relatively low (< 2 events per subject). Additionally, it was more sensitive than the Kaplan-Meier VPC to detect circadian variation of the hazard rate. An additional useful feature of the kernel estimator is that it can be generated prior to model development to explore the shape of the hazard rate function.