Impact of DREAMS interventions on attitudes towards gender norms among adolescent girls and young women: Findings from a prospective cohort in Kenya.

The DREAMS partnership aims to deliver a comprehensive package to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), including through shifting gender norms. We evaluate DREAMS' effect on attitudes towards gender norms in two Kenyan settings. AGYW aged 15-22 in Nairobi (n = 852) and Gem (n = 761) were randomly selected for cohort enrolment in 2017-18 and followed-up to 2019. We described the proportion of AGYW and their male peers with equitable attitudes towards gender norms, using an adapted version of the GEM scale. We estimated the association between self-reported invitation to DREAMS (in 2017-18) and AGYW's attitudes towards two dimensions of gender norms, and then applied a causal inference framework to estimate the difference in the proportion of AGYW with equitable attitudes under the counterfactual scenarios that all versus none were DREAMS beneficiaries. We estimated that overall, 90.2% versus 87.1% of AGYW would have equitable norms around sexual and reproductive health decision-making in Nairobi if all versus none were DREAMS beneficiaries (+3.1; 95%CI:-2.5, +9.0). In Gem, we estimated a risk difference of +1.0 (89.6% vs 88.6%, 95%CI: -3.6,+5.6). There was no evidence for an effect of DREAMS on attitudes towards violence-related norms (Nairobi: 82.7% vs 82.2%, +0.5; 95%CI: -5.3,+6.5; Gem: 44.3% vs 48.2%, -3.9; 95%CI: -11.7,+3.0). We found no evidence of an impact of DREAMS invitation on individual attitudes towards gender norms. In some cases, equitable attitudes at enrolment left limited scope for improvement, and additional effort may be required to shift inequitable violence attitudes among both AGYW and their male peers.

Impact of DREAMS interventions on experiences of violence among adolescent girls and young women: Findings from population-based cohort studies in Kenya and South Africa.

DREAMS aims to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) by tackling drivers of HIV risk including gender-based violence. We evaluate the impact of DREAMS on recent experiences of violence perpetuated by men against AGYW. AGYW cohorts were randomly selected from demographic platforms in South Africa (rural KwaZulu-Natal) and Kenya (Nairobi informal settlements and rural Gem sub-county). AGYW aged 13-22 years were enrolled in 2017 (Nairobi, KwaZulu-Natal) or 2018 (Gem), with annual follow-up to 2019. We described proportions of AGYW who self-reported experiences of violence perpetrated by males in the 12 months preceding the interview, overall and by form (physical, sexual, emotional). We investigated associations with DREAMS (invitation to participate during 2017-2018) through multivariable propensity score-adjusted logistic regression and estimated the causal effect of DREAMS on experiences of violence, under counter-factual scenarios in which all versus no AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries. Among 852, 1018 and 1712 AGYW followed-up in 2019 in Nairobi, Gem and KZN, respectively, proportions reporting any violence in 2019 were higher in Nairobi (29%) than Gem (18%) and KwaZulu-Natal (19%). By sub-type, emotional and physical violence were more frequently reported than sexual violence. We found no evidence of an impact attributable to DREAMS on overall levels of violence, in any setting. Nor was there evidence of impact on sub-types of violence, with one exception: an increase in physical violence in Nairobi if all, versus no, AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries (16% vs 11%; +5% difference [95% CI: +0.2%, +10.0%]). Experiences of gender-based violence were common among AGYW, especially in urban settings, and DREAMS had no measurable impact on reducing violence within three years of implementation. Violence prevention programming that reaches more men and the broader community, sustained for longer periods, may yield greater gains in violence reduction than AGYW-focused programming. Additionally, more investment in implementation research is needed to bridge trial-based study findings from efficacy to population-level effectiveness.

Awareness and uptake of the Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe HIV prevention package over time among population-based cohorts of young women in Kenya and South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate uptake of a complex intervention for HIV prevention among general populations of adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in three diverse settings. DESIGN: Cohorts of ∼1500 AGYW were randomly selected from demographic platforms in Kenya (Nairobi and Siaya) and South Africa (uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal). METHODS: AGYW aged 13/15-22 years were enrolled in 2017 (Nairobi and uMkha-nyakude) or 2018 (Siaya), with annual follow-up to 2019. We describe awareness of DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe), self-reported invitation to participate, and uptake of DREAMS interventions by: categories and levels of the PEPFAR core package;number of 'primary' interventions (seven in Kenya;five in South Africa). Analyses were stratified by year invited and age at cohort enrolment. RESULTS: Proportions aware and invited to DREAMS increased across all settings, to ≥ 83% aware and ≥ 53% invited by 2018 (highest among AGYW aged 13-17 years, e.g. 63 vs. 40% among 18-22 s, uMkhanyakude). HIV testing, school-based interventions and social protection were the most accessed categories, while differences in uptake by DREAMS invitation were greatest for novel DREAMS interventions, for example, social asset building (76% among those invited in 2017 and 2018 vs. 9% among those never-invited in Nairobi). Although few DREAMS invitees accessed all intended primary interventions by 2019 (2% of 15-17 s and 5% of 18-22 s in Gem), many accessed at least three interventions, including combinations across individual, family and community levels. CONCLUSION: Over time, DREAMS reached high proportions of AGYW in all settings, particularly younger AGYW. Participation in combinations of interventions improved but uptake of the complete primary packages remained low.

DREAMS impact on HIV status knowledge and sexual risk among cohorts of young women in Kenya and South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: We sought evidence of DREAMS' impact on uptake of services and sexual risk among adolescent-girls-and-young-women (AGYW). DESIGN: Cohorts of AGYW aged 13-22 years were randomly selected in 2017-2018 and followed-up to 2019; 1081 in Nairobi, Kenya;1171 in Gem, western Kenya;and 2184 in uMkhanyakude, South Africa. METHODS: Outcomes were knowledge of HIV status, condomless sex (past 12 months), lifetime partners, transactional sex (past 12 months), and awareness and use of condoms and pre-exposure-prophylaxis (PrEP). Using a causal inference framework, we estimated the proportions with each outcome if all vs. none were DREAMS invitees by 2018. RESULTS: Among AGYW followed up in 2019, the percentage invited to DREAMS by 2018 was 74, 57, and 53% in Nairobi, Gem, and uMkhanyakude, respectively. By 2018, the estimated percentages of AGYW who would know their HIV status, comparing the scenarios that all vs. none were DREAMS invitees, were 86 vs. 56% in Nairobi, 80 vs. 68% in Gem, and 56 vs. 49% in uMkhanyakude. By 2019, awareness of condoms and PrEP was high among DREAMS invitees, but recent participation in condom promotion activities was less than 50% and recent PrEP use was around 0-10%. In Gem, there was evidence of a reduction attributable to DREAMS in condomless sex, and among younger AGYW in the number of lifetime partners;in Nairobi evidence of a reduction in condomless sex among sexually active older AGYW;and in uMkhanya-kude no evidence that DREAMS changed these outcomes. CONCLUSION: Alongside sustaining high levels of knowledge of HIV status, more is needed to link AGYW into prevention methods such as PrEP and condoms.Comprehensive HIV prevention promotes safer sexual partnerships, but poverty, social norms, and inequalities limit AGYW's prevention choices.

Impact of the DREAMS Partnership on social support and general self-efficacy among adolescent girls and young women: causal analysis of population-based cohorts in Kenya and South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS) Partnership aimed to influence psychosocial processes that promote empowerment among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and reduce HIV incidence. We estimated the impact of DREAMS on aspects of AGYW's collective and individual agency (specifically, social support and self-efficacy), in three settings where DREAMS was implemented from 2016 until at least end 2018. METHODS: Research cohorts of ~1500 AGYW aged 13-22 were randomly selected from demographic platforms in Kenya (Nairobi; Gem) and South Africa (uMkhanyakude) and followed up from 2017 to 2019. Social support was based on questions about female networks and access to safe places to meet with peers; general self-efficacy was measured using a scale previously validated in other settings. We conducted multivariable logistic regression, and estimated the causal effect of invitation to DREAMS on each outcome in 2018 and 2019 by comparing counter-factual scenarios in which all, vs no, AGYW were DREAMS invitees. RESULTS: In Nairobi, Gem and uMkhanyakude, respectively, 74%, 57% and 53% were invited to DREAMS by 2018. Social support was higher among DREAMS invitees versus non-invitees (eg, adjusted OR 2.0 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.6), Gem, 2018). In 2018, DREAMS increased social support in all settings and age groups, for example, from 28% if none were DREAMS invitees to 43% if all were invitees (+15% (95% CI 10% to 20%)) in Gem. Effects were strongest in Kenya, but weakened in 2019, particularly among older AGYW. In uMkhanyakude, DREAMS invitees had greater self-efficacy compared with non-invitees in 2018 (+9% (95% CI 3% to 13%), 2018) but less so in 2019. In Kenyan settings, there was weak evidence for impact on self-efficacy among younger AGYW in Gem (+6% (95% CI 0% to 13%)) and older AGYW in Nairobi (+9% (95% CI -3% to +20%)) in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: DREAMS impacted on social support and, less consistently, on self-efficacy. Weakening effects over time may reflect changes in access to safe spaces and social networks as AGYW age and change circumstances, and withdrawal of DREAMS from uMkhanyakude in 2018, highlighting the importance of programme sustainability and improving programming for older participants.

Evaluating the impact of DREAMS on HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women: A population-based cohort study in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Through a multisectoral approach, the DREAMS Partnership aimed to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) by 40% over 2 years in high-burden districts across sub-Saharan Africa. DREAMS promotes a combination package of evidence-based interventions to reduce individual, family, partner, and community-based drivers of young women's heightened HIV risk. We evaluated the impact of DREAMS on HIV incidence among AGYW and young men in 2 settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We directly estimated HIV incidence rates among open population-based cohorts participating in demographic and HIV serological surveys from 2006 to 2018 annually in uMkhanyakude (KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) and over 6 rounds from 2010 to 2019 in Gem (Siaya, Kenya). We compared HIV incidence among AGYW aged 15 to 24 years before DREAMS and up to 3 years after DREAMS implementation began in 2016. We investigated the timing of any change in HIV incidence and whether the rate of any change accelerated during DREAMS implementation. Comparable analyses were also conducted for young men (20 to 29/34 years). In uMkhanyakude, between 5,000 and 6,000 AGYW were eligible for the serological survey each year, an average of 85% were contacted, and consent rates varied from 37% to 67%. During 26,395 person-years (py), HIV incidence was lower during DREAMS implementation (2016 to 2018) than in the previous 5-year period among 15- to 19-year-old females (4.5 new infections per 100 py as compared with 2.8; age-adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48 to 0.82), and lower among 20- to 24-year-olds (7.1/100 py as compared with 5.8; aRR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.04). Declines preceded DREAMS introduction, beginning from 2012 to 2013 among the younger and 2014 for the older women, with no evidence of more rapid decline during DREAMS implementation. In Gem, between 8,515 and 11,428 AGYW were eligible each survey round, an average of 34% were contacted and offered an HIV test, and consent rates ranged from 84% to 99%. During 10,382 py, declines in HIV incidence among 15- to 19-year-olds began before DREAMS and did not change after DREAMS introduction. Among 20- to 24-year-olds in Gem, HIV incidence estimates were lower during DREAMS implementation (0.64/100 py) compared with the pre-DREAMS period (0.94/100 py), with no statistical evidence of a decline (aRR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53 to 2.18). Among young men, declines in HIV incidence were greater than those observed among AGYW and also began prior to DREAMS investments. Study limitations include low study power in Kenya and the introduction of other interventions such as universal treatment for HIV during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial declines in HIV incidence among AGYW were observed, but most began before DREAMS introduction and did not accelerate in the first 3 years of DREAMS implementation. Like the declines observed among young men, they are likely driven by earlier and ongoing investments in HIV testing and treatment. Longer-term implementation and evaluation are needed to assess the impact of such a complex HIV prevention intervention and to help accelerate reductions in HIV incidence among young women.

Impact of the DREAMS interventions on educational attainment among adolescent girls and young women: Causal analysis of a prospective cohort in urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: DREAMS promotes a comprehensive HIV prevention approach to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). One pathway that DREAMS seeks to impact is to support AGYW to stay in school and achieve secondary education. We assessed the impact of DREAMS on educational outcomes among AGYW in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In two informal settlements in Nairobi, 1081 AGYW aged 15-22 years were randomly selected in 2017 and followed-up to 2019. AGYW reporting invitation to participate in DREAMS during 2017-18 were classified as "DREAMS beneficiaries". Our main outcome was being in school and/or completed lower secondary school in 2019. We used multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between being a DREAMS beneficiary and the outcome; and a causal inference framework to estimate proportions achieving the outcome if all, versus no, AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries, adjusting for the propensity to be a DREAMS beneficiary. Of AGYW enrolled in 2017, 79% (852/1081) were followed-up to 2019. In unadjusted analysis, DREAMS beneficiaries had higher attainment than non-beneficiaries (85% vs 75% in school or completed lower secondary school, Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.9; 95%CI: 1.3,2.8). The effect weakened with adjustment for age and other confounders, (adjusted OR = 1.4; 95%CI: 0.9,2.4). From the causal analysis, evidence was weak for an impact of DREAMS (estimated 83% vs 79% in school or completed lower secondary school, if all vs no AGYW were beneficiaries, difference = 4%; 95%CI: -2,11%). Among AGYW out of school at baseline, the estimated differences were 21% (95%CI: -3,43%) among 15-17 year olds; and 4% (95%CI: -8,17%) among 18-22 year olds. CONCLUSIONS: DREAMS had a modest impact on educational attainment among AGYW in informal settlements in Kenya, by supporting both retention and re-enrolment in school. Larger impact might be achieved if more AGYW were reached with educational subsidies, alongside other DREAMS interventions.

Reaching early adolescents with a complex intervention for HIV prevention: findings from a cohort study to evaluate DREAMS in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The DREAMS Partnership promotes combination HIV prevention among adolescent girls and young women. We examined the extent to which DREAMS interventions reached early adolescent girls (EAG; aged 10-14 years) in two informal settlements in Nairobi, and the characteristics of those reached, after 3 years of implementation. METHODS: We utilized three data rounds from a randomly-sampled cohort of EAG established in 2017 in Korogocho and Viwandani informal settlements where DREAMS interventions were implemented. Interventions were classified as individual or contextual-level, with individual interventions further categorised as primary (prioritised for this age group), or secondary. We summarised self-reported invitation to participate in DREAMS, and uptake of eight interventions that were supported by DREAMS, during 2017-2019. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify individual and household characteristics associated with invitation to DREAMS and uptake of primary interventions. RESULTS: Data were available for 606, 516 (retention rate of 85%) and 494 (82%) EAG in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. Proportions invited to DREAMS increased from 49% in 2017, to 77% by 2018, and to 88% by 2019. School-based HIV and violence prevention, and HIV testing and counselling were the most accessed interventions (both at 82%). Cumulative uptake of interventions was higher among those invited to participate in DREAMS compared to those never invited, particularly for new interventions such as social asset building and financial capability training. Contextual-level interventions were accessed infrequently. Most of those invited both in 2017 and 2018 accessed ≥3 interventions (96%), and 55% received all three primary interventions by 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of DREAMS interventions among a representative sample of EAG was high and quickly increased over the implementation period. The majority accessed multiple interventions, indicating that it is feasible to integrate and deliver a package of interventions to EAG in a challenging informal context.

Awareness and uptake of layered HIV prevention programming for young women: analysis of population-based surveys in three DREAMS settings in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The DREAMS Partnership is an ambitious effort to deliver combinations of biomedical, behavioural and structural interventions to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). To inform multi-sectoral programming at scale, across diverse settings in Kenya and South Africa, we identified who the programme is reaching, with which interventions and in what combinations. METHODS: Randomly-selected cohorts of 606 AGYW aged 10-14 years and 1081 aged 15-22 years in Nairobi and 2184 AGYW aged 13-22 years in uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal, were enrolled in 2017, after ~ 1 year of DREAMS implementation. In Gem, western Kenya, population-wide cross-sectional survey data were collected during roll-out in 2016 (n = 1365 AGYW 15-22 years). We summarised awareness and invitation to participate in DREAMS, uptake of interventions categorised by the DREAMS core package, and uptake of a subset of 'primary' interventions. We stratified by age-group and setting, and compared across AGYW characteristics. RESULTS: Awareness of DREAMS was higher among younger women (Nairobi: 89%v78%, aged 15-17v18-22 years; uMkhanyakude: 56%v31%, aged 13-17v18-22; and Gem: 28%v25%, aged 15-17v18-22, respectively). HIV testing was the most accessed intervention in Nairobi and Gem (77% and 85%, respectively), and school-based HIV prevention in uMkhanyakude (60%). Among those invited, participation in social asset building was > 50%; > 60% accessed ≥2 core package categories, but few accessed all primary interventions intended for their age-group. Parenting programmes and community mobilisation, including those intended for male partners, were accessed infrequently. In Nairobi and uMkhanyakude, AGYW were more likely to be invited to participate and accessed more categories if they were: aged < 18 years, in school and experienced socio-economic vulnerabilities. Those who had had sex, or a pregnancy, were less likely to be invited to participate but accessed more categories. CONCLUSIONS: In representative population-based samples, awareness and uptake of DREAMS were high after 1 year of implementation. Evidence of 'layering' (receiving multiple interventions from the DREAMS core package), particularly among more socio-economically vulnerable AGYW, indicate that intervention packages can be implemented at scale, for intended recipients, in real-world contexts. Challenges remain for higher coverage and greater 'layering', including among older, out-of-school AGYW, and community-based programmes for families and men.

Are European HIV cohort data within EuroCoord representative of the diagnosed HIV population?

OBJECTIVE: HIV cohorts are an important source of clinical data for informing public health policies and programmes. However, the generalizability of cohort findings to the wider population of people diagnosed with HIV in each country remains unclear. In this work, we assessed the representativeness of six large national HIV cohorts within Europe. DESIGN AND METHODS: Individual-level cohort data were provided from national cohorts in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Analysis focused on new HIV diagnoses reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) during three time periods (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2013), to allow for temporal changes. Cohort and TESSy records were matched and compared by age, sex, transmission mode, region of origin and CD4+ cell count at diagnosis. The probability of being included in each cohort given demographic characteristics was estimated and used to generate weights inversely proportional to the probability of being included. RESULTS: Participating cohorts were generally representative of the national HIV-diagnosed population submitted to TESSy. However, people who inject drugs, those born in a country other than that reporting the data, those with low CD4 cell counts at diagnosis, and those more than 55 years were generally underrepresented in the cohorts examined. CONCLUSION: These European cohorts capture a representative sample of the HIV-diagnosed populations in each country; however some groups may be underrepresented.

Evaluating the impact of the DREAMS partnership to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women in four settings: a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: HIV risk remains unacceptably high among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in southern and eastern Africa, reflecting structural and social inequities that drive new infections. In 2015, PEPFAR (the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) with private-sector partners launched the DREAMS Partnership, an ambitious package of interventions in 10 sub-Saharan African countries. DREAMS aims to reduce HIV incidence by 40% among AGYW over two years by addressing multiple causes of AGYW vulnerability. This protocol outlines an impact evaluation of DREAMS in four settings. METHODS: To achieve an impact evaluation that is credible and timely, we describe a mix of methods that build on longitudinal data available in existing surveillance sites prior to DREAMS roll-out. In three long-running surveillance sites (in rural and urban Kenya and rural South Africa), the evaluation will measure: (1) population-level changes over time in HIV incidence and socio-economic, behavioural and health outcomes among AGYW and young men (before, during, after DREAMS); and (2) causal pathways linking uptake of DREAMS interventions to 'mediators' of change such as empowerment, through to behavioural and health outcomes, using nested cohort studies with samples of ~ 1000-1500 AGYW selected randomly from the general population and followed for two years. In Zimbabwe, where DREAMS includes an offer of pre-exposure HIV prophylaxis (PrEP), cohorts of young women who sell sex will be followed for two years to measure the impact of 'DREAMS+PrEP' on HIV incidence among young women at highest risk of HIV. In all four settings, process evaluation and qualitative studies will monitor the delivery and context of DREAMS implementation. The primary evaluation outcome is HIV incidence, and secondary outcomes include indicators of sexual behavior change, and social and biological protection. DISCUSSION: DREAMS is, to date, the most ambitious effort to scale-up combinations or 'packages' of multi-sectoral interventions for HIV prevention. Evidence of its effectiveness in reducing HIV incidence among AGYW, and demonstrating which aspects of the lives of AGYW were changed, will offer valuable lessons for replication.

Easy and accurate reconstruction of whole HIV genomes from short-read sequence data with shiver.

Studying the evolution of viruses and their molecular epidemiology relies on accurate viral sequence data, so that small differences between similar viruses can be meaningfully interpreted. Despite its higher throughput and more detailed minority variant data, next-generation sequencing has yet to be widely adopted for HIV. The difficulty of accurately reconstructing the consensus sequence of a quasispecies from reads (short fragments of DNA) in the presence of large between- and within-host diversity, including frequent indels, may have presented a barrier. In particular, mapping (aligning) reads to a reference sequence leads to biased loss of information; this bias can distort epidemiological and evolutionary conclusions. De novo assembly avoids this bias by aligning the reads to themselves, producing a set of sequences called contigs. However contigs provide only a partial summary of the reads, misassembly may result in their having an incorrect structure, and no information is available at parts of the genome where contigs could not be assembled. To address these problems we developed the tool shiver to pre-process reads for quality and contamination, then map them to a reference tailored to the sample using corrected contigs supplemented with the user's choice of existing reference sequences. Run with two commands per sample, it can easily be used for large heterogeneous data sets. We used shiver to reconstruct the consensus sequence and minority variant information from paired-end short-read whole-genome data produced with the Illumina platform, for sixty-five existing publicly available samples and fifty new samples. We show the systematic superiority of mapping to shiver's constructed reference compared with mapping the same reads to the closest of 3,249 real references: median values of 13 bases called differently and more accurately, 0 bases called differently and less accurately, and 205 bases of missing sequence recovered. We also successfully applied shiver to whole-genome samples of Hepatitis C Virus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus. shiver is publicly available from https://github.com/ChrisHIV/shiver.

Substantial Heterogeneity in Progress Toward Reaching the 90-90-90 HIV Target in the WHO European Region.

BACKGROUND: Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 is expected to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. We report on progress in the WHO European Region in meeting this target. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) sent questionnaires to 55 countries in 2016. We report estimates for 4 stages of the continuum of HIV care (living with HIV, diagnosed, treated, and virally suppressed), corresponding to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) target and explore differences by subregion and challenges with reporting data. FINDINGS: Forty-four countries provided data for ≥1 stage, and 29 for all 4 stages. Estimated HIV prevalence was 0.19% (range 0.02%-0.84%, n = 37 countries providing stage 1 data). The proportion diagnosed of people living with HIV ranged from 38% to 98% (n = 37 reporting number of people living with HIV and diagnosed). The proportion on ART of those diagnosed ranged from 27% to 96% (n = 40 reporting numbers diagnosed and treated), and viral suppression rates ranged from 32% to 97% (n = 31 providing numbers treated and virally suppressed). The overall continuum of care estimate for 29 countries with complete data was 81-84-88, which differed by subregion: 84-88-90, 84-69-62, and 57-45-57 for the western, central, and eastern subregions, respectively. Challenges in reporting data included absence of a single data source for all stages, shortage of expertise, and lack of financial and human resources. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to strengthen HIV testing programs throughout Europe, particularly in the eastern subregion, and to remove constraints hampering access to testing and care. Recent changes to treatment guidelines should help reduce the numbers diagnosed not treated.

A qualitative study exploring the social and environmental context of recently acquired HIV infection among men who have sex with men in South-East England.

OBJECTIVES: A key UK public health priority is to reduce HIV incidence among gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to explore the social and environmental context in which new HIV infections occurred among MSM in London and Brighton in 2015. DESIGN: A qualitative descriptive study, comprising in-depth interviews, was carried out as a substudy to the UK Register of HIV Seroconverters cohort: an observational cohort of individuals whose date of HIV seroconversion was well estimated. An inductive thematic analysis was conducted in NVivo, guided by a socio-ecological framework. SETTING: Participants were recruited from six HIV clinics in London and Brighton. Fieldwork was conducted between January and April 2015. PARTICIPANTS: All MSM eligible for the UK Register Seroconverter cohort (an HIV-positive antibody test result within 12 months of their last documented HIV-negative test or other laboratory evidence of HIV seroconversion) diagnosed within the past 12 months and aged ≥18 were eligible for the qualitative substudy. 21 MSM participated, aged 22-61 years and predominantly white. RESULTS: A complex interplay of factors, operating at different levels, influenced risk behaviours and HIV acquisition. Participants saw risk as multi-factorial, but the relative importance of factors varied for each person. Individual psycho-social factors, including personal history, recent life stressors and mental health, enhanced vulnerability towards higher risk situations, while features of the social environment, such as chemsex and social media, and prevalent community beliefs regarding treatment and HIV normalisation, encouraged risk taking. CONCLUSIONS: Recently acquired HIV infection among MSM reflects a complex web of factors operating at different levels. These findings point to the need for multi-level interventions to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition among high-risk MSM in the UK and similar settings.

Correction: Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2001855.].

Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe.

HIV-1 set-point viral load-the approximately stable value of viraemia in the first years of chronic infection-is a strong predictor of clinical outcome and is highly variable across infected individuals. To better understand HIV-1 pathogenesis and the evolution of the viral population, we must quantify the heritability of set-point viral load, which is the fraction of variation in this phenotype attributable to viral genetic variation. However, current estimates of heritability vary widely, from 6% to 59%. Here we used a dataset of 2,028 seroconverters infected between 1985 and 2013 from 5 European countries (Belgium, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) and estimated the heritability of set-point viral load at 31% (CI 15%-43%). Specifically, heritability was measured using models of character evolution describing how viral load evolves on the phylogeny of whole-genome viral sequences. In contrast to previous studies, (i) we measured viral loads using standardized assays on a sample collected in a strict time window of 6 to 24 months after infection, from which the viral genome was also sequenced; (ii) we compared 2 models of character evolution, the classical "Brownian motion" model and another model ("Ornstein-Uhlenbeck") that includes stabilising selection on viral load; (iii) we controlled for covariates, including age and sex, which may inflate estimates of heritability; and (iv) we developed a goodness of fit test based on the correlation of viral loads in cherries of the phylogenetic tree, showing that both models of character evolution fit the data well. An overall heritability of 31% (CI 15%-43%) is consistent with other studies based on regression of viral load in donor-recipient pairs. Thus, about a third of variation in HIV-1 virulence is attributable to viral genetic variation.

A Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Sequences in Kiev: Findings Among Key Populations.

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission. Methods: Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013-March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥2 sequences, ≥80% local branch support, and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Sequences were analyzed for transmitted drug resistance mutations. Results: Thirty percent of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.56-7.50]); risk group (OR, 5.65 [95% CI, 3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males; recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.64-4.52]); reported sex work contact (OR, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.07-3.47]); and younger age groups compared with age ≥36 years (OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.10-3.05] for age ≤25 years). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, .31-.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype, and age group were independently associated with clustering (P < .001, P = .007, and P = .033, respectively). Eighteen sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of transmitted drug resistance. Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges.

BACKGROUND.: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons. METHODS.: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS.: In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage. CONCLUSIONS.: European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge.