Lolland-Falster Health Study: Study protocol for a household-based prospective cohort study.

Introduction: Lolland-Falster consists of two islands in the southern part of Denmark where income is lower and life expectancy is shorter than in the general Danish population. It is a mixed rural-provincial area with approximately 100,000 inhabitants. The Lolland-Falster Health Study was initiated to gain knowledge on the determinants of health in this disadvantaged area. Methods: The study is a household-based prospective cohort study including people of all ages. The entire household of randomly selected inhabitants is allocated either to an invited group or to an uninvited, non-contacted control group. The data collection encompasses questionnaires, physical examination and biological samples, i.e. blood and urine for same-day analysis and biobank storage, and saliva and faeces also for biobank storage. The civil registration number links collected data for each individual, family and household, with information in Danish registers. The data collection started in February 2016 and is estimated to end by 2019 after the enrolment of 20,000 people. Analysis: A number of in-depth sub-studies are planned. Emphasis will be given to analysis of intra- and inter-family variations in health determinants, genetics, lifestyle and health status. Ethics: Region Zealand's Ethical Committee on Health Research (SJ-421) and the Danish Data Protection Agency (REG-24-2015) approved the study. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02482896). Strength and limitations of this study: The strength of this study is that Lolland-Falster Health Study is a useful scientific resource for investigating cross-sectional difference and time trends within and between individuals, families and households. LOFUS adds diversity to the previously collected Danish population studies in urbanized areas. The limitation is that data collection is expensive. Conclusions: LOFUS will contribute to the knowledge on health in disadvantaged, rural-provincial areas.

Biomarker-assisted identification of sepsis-related acute liver impairment: a frequent and deadly condition in critically ill patients.

Background The prognostic impact of mild/moderate liver impairment among critically ill patients is not known. We aimed to determine whether acute liver impairment, as measured by several biomarkers, (i) is frequent, (ii) influences prognosis and (iii) to determine whether such an effect is specific for infected critically ill patients. Methods A biomarker and clinical cohort study based on a randomized controlled trial. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Biomarkers hyaluronic acid (HA), bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase and the international normalized ratio (INR) were determined. Multivariable statistics were applied to estimate risk increase according to liver biomarker increase at baseline and the model was adjusted for age, APACHE II, severe sepsis/septic shock vs. milder infection, chronic alcohol abuse Charlson's co-morbidity index, cancer disease, surgical or medical patient, body mass index, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, mechanical ventilation and the other biomarkers. Time-to-event graphs were used. The patients were critically ill patients (n = 1096) from nine mixed medical/surgical intensive care units without known hepatobiliary disease. Results HA levels differed between infected patients (median 210.8 ng/mL [IQR: 93.2-556.6]) vs. the non-infected (median 56.8 ng/mL [IQR: 31.9-116.8], p < 0.001). Serum HA quartiles 2, 3 and 4 were independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality for the entire population (infected and non-infected). However, the signal was driven by the infected patients (positive interaction test, no signal in non-infected patients). Among infected patients, HA quartiles corresponded directly to the 90-day risk of dying: 1st quartile: 57/192 = 29.7%, 2nd quartile: 84/194 = 43.3%, 3rd quartile: 90/193 = 46.6%, 4th quartile: 101/192 = 52.3 %, p for trend: <0.0001. This finding was confirmed in adjusted analyses: hazard ratio vs. 1st quartile: 2nd quartile: 1.3 [0.9-1.8], p = 0.14, 3rd quartile: 1.5 [1.1-2.2], p = 0.02, 4th quartile: 1.9 [1.3-2.6], p < 0.0001). High bilirubin was also an independent predictor of mortality. Conclusions Among infected critically ill patients, subtle liver impairment, (elevated HA and bilirubin), was associated with a progressive and highly increased risk of death for the patient; this was robust to adjustment for other predictors of mortality. HA can identify patients at high risk.

Changes in Cognitive Function Over 96 Weeks in Naive Patients Randomized to Darunavir-Ritonavir Plus Either Raltegravir or Tenofovir-Emtricitabine: A Substudy of the NEAT001/ANRS143 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in cognitive function are described after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), with sparse data on differences between cART strategies. METHODS: We assessed changes in cognition, over 96 weeks, in therapy-naive HIV-positive adults randomized to darunavir/ritonavir (800/100 mg once daily) with either raltegravir (400 mg twice daily, Arm1) or tenofovir/emtricitabine (245/200 mg once daily, Arm2). Seven cognitive tests were administered at baseline and week (W) 96. Changes from baseline in individual cognitive test scores and composite score (NPZ) were assessed. Comparisons between treatment arms were by intention to treat and associations with immunological and virological parameters by regression models. FINDINGS: Of 343 subjects enrolled, 208 completed the W96 cognitive assessment. Baseline median (interquartile range) CD4 count and plasma HIV RNA were 348 (282-398) cells per microliter and 4.7 (4.2-5.1) log10 copies per milliliter, respectively. At W96, numbers with plasma HIV RNA undetectable and remaining on randomized cART were 85 (92%) and 110 (96%), and 84 (90%) and 107 (93%) in Arm1 and Arm2, respectively. Overall performance significantly improved by W96 in 5 of 7 individual tests and in NPZ. Mean changes in NPZ were 0.28 versus 0.21 for Arm1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.37). No statistically significant differences between study treatment arms were observed in individual cognitive domains apart from attention (greater improvement in Arm1, P = 0.0499). At W96, NPZ score increase was associated with increase in CD4 (P = 0.001) but not HIV RNA area under curve (P = 0.60). INTERPRETATION: Subsequent to the initiation of cART, immunological recovery rather than type of antiretroviral therapy is the major driver of changes in cognitive function.

Prediction of non-recovery from ventilator-demanding acute respiratory failure, ARDS and death using lung damage biomarkers: data from a 1200-patient critical care randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether biomarkers of alveolar damage (surfactant protein D, SPD) or conductive airway damage (club cell secretory protein 16, CC16) measured early after intensive care admittance are associated with one-month clinical respiratory prognosis. If patients who do not recover respiratory function within one month can be identified early, future experimental lung interventions can be aimed toward this high-risk group. We aimed to determine, in a heterogenous critically ill population, whether baseline profound alveolar damage or conductive airway damage has clinical respiratory impact one month after intensive care admittance. METHODS: Biobank study of biomarkers of alveolar and conductive airway damage in intensive care patients was conducted. This was a sub-study of 758 intubated patients from a 1200-patient randomized trial. We split the cohort into a "learning cohort" and "validating cohort" based on geographical criteria: northern sites (learning) and southern sites (validating). RESULTS: Baseline SPD above the 85th percentile in the "learning cohort" predicted low chance of successful weaning from ventilator within 28 days (adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 [95% CI 0.4-0.9], p = 0.005); this was confirmed in the validating cohort. CC16 did not predict the endpoint. The absolute risk of not being successfully weaned within the first month was 48/106 (45.3%) vs. 175/652 (26.8%), p < 0.0001 (high SPD vs. low SPD). The chance of being "alive and without ventilator ≥20 days within the first month" was lower among patients with high SPD (adjusted OR 0.2 [95% CI 0.2-0.4], p < 0.0001), confirmed in the validating cohort, and the risk of ARDS was higher among patients with high SPD (adjusted OR 3.4 [95% CI 1.0-11.4], p = 0.04)-also confirmed in the validating cohort. CONCLUSION: Early profound alveolar damage in intubated patients can be identified by SPD blood measurement at intensive care admission, and high SPD level is a strong independent predictor that the patient suffers from ARDS and will not recover independent respiratory function within one month. This knowledge can be used to improve diagnostic and prognostic models and to identify the patients who most likely will benefit from experimental interventions aiming to preserve alveolar tissue and therefore respiratory function. Trial registration This is a sub-study to the Procalcitonin And Survival Study (PASS), Clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT00271752, first registered January 1, 2006.

Lessons learned: Infrastructure development and financial management for large, publicly funded, international trials.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Randomized clinical trials are widely recognized as essential to address worldwide clinical and public health research questions. However, their size and duration can overwhelm available public and private resources. To remain competitive in international research settings, advocates and practitioners of clinical trials must implement practices that reduce their cost. We identify approaches and practices for large, publicly funded, international trials that reduce cost without compromising data integrity and recommend an approach to cost reporting that permits comparison of clinical trials. METHODS: We describe the organizational and financial characteristics of The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, an infectious disease research network that conducts multiple, large, long-term, international trials, and examine challenges associated with simple and streamlined governance and an infrastructure and financial management model that is based on performance, transparency, and accountability. RESULTS: It is possible to reduce costs of participants' follow-up and not compromise clinical trial quality or integrity. The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials network has successfully completed three large HIV trials using cost-efficient practices that have not adversely affected investigator enthusiasm, accrual rates, loss-to-follow-up, adherence to the protocol, and completion of data collection. This experience is relevant to the conduct of large, publicly funded trials in other disease areas, particularly trials dependent on international collaborations. CONCLUSION: New approaches, or creative adaption of traditional clinical trial infrastructure and financial management tools, can render large, international clinical trials more cost-efficient by emphasizing structural simplicity, minimal up-front costs, payments for performance, and uniform algorithms and fees-for-service, irrespective of location. However, challenges remain. They include institutional resistance to financial change, growing trial complexity, and the difficulty of sustaining network infrastructure absent stable research work. There is also a need for more central monitoring, improved and harmonized regulations, and a widely applied metric for measuring and comparing cost efficiency in clinical trials. ClinicalTrials.gov is recommended as a location where standardized trial cost information could be made publicly accessible.

INVESTIGATING THE EFFICACY OF CLINICAL TRIAL MONITORING STRATEGIES: Design and Implementation of the Cluster Randomized START Monitoring Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Trial monitoring protects participant safety and study integrity. While monitors commonly go on-site to verify source data, there is little evidence that this practice is efficient or effective. An ongoing international HIV treatment trial (START) provides an opportunity to explore the usefulness of different monitoring approaches. METHODS: All START sites are centrally monitored and required to follow a local monitoring plan requiring specific quality assurance activities. Additionally, sites were randomized (1:1) to receive, or not receive, annual on-site monitoring. The study will determine if on-site monitoring increases the identification of major protocol deviations (eligibility or consent violations, improper study drug use, primary or serious event underreporting, data alteration or fraud). RESULTS: The START study completed enrollment in December 2013, with planned follow-up through December 2016. The monitoring study is ongoing at 196 sites in 34 countries. Results are expected when the START study concludes in December 2016.

Impact of body weight on virological and immunological responses to efavirenz-containing regimens in HIV-infected, treatment-naive adults.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing among HIV-infected patients. Whether standard antiretroviral drug dosage is adequate in heavy individuals remains unresolved. We assessed the virological and immunological responses to initial efavirenz (EFV)-containing regimens in heavy compared to normal-weight HIV-infected patients. DESIGN: Observational European cohort collaboration study. METHODS: Eligible patients were antiretroviral-naïve with documented weight prior to EFV start and follow-up viral loads after treatment initiation. Cox regression analyses evaluated the association between weight and time to first undetectable viral load (<50 copies/ml) after treatment initiation, and time to viral load rebound (two consecutive viral load >50 copies/ml) after initial suppression over 5 years of follow-up. Recovery of CD4 cell count was evaluated 6 and 12 months after EFV initiation. Analyses were stratified by weight (kg) group (I - <55; II - >55, <80 (reference); III - >80, <85; IV - >85, <90; V - >90, <95; VI - >95). RESULTS: The study included 19,968 patients, of whom 9.1, 68.3, 9.1, 5.8, 3.5, and 4.3% were in weight groups I-VI, respectively. Overall, 81.1% patients attained virological suppression, of whom 34.1% subsequently experienced viral load rebound. After multiple adjustments, no statistical difference was observed in time to undetectable viral load and virological rebound for heavier individuals compared to their normal-weight counterparts. Although heaviest individuals had significantly higher CD4 cell count at baseline, CD4 cell recovery at 6 and 12 months after EFV initiation was comparable to normal-weight individuals. CONCLUSION: Virological and immunological responses to initial EFV-containing regimens were not impaired in heavy individuals, suggesting that the standard 600 mg EFV dosage is appropriate across a wide weight range.

Invasive Candida infections and the harm from antibacterial drugs in critically ill patients: data from a randomized, controlled trial to determine the role of ciprofloxacin, piperacillin-tazobactam, meropenem, and cefuroxime.

OBJECTIVE: Use of antibiotics in critically ill patients may increase the risk of invasive Candida infection. The objective of this study was to determine whether increased exposure to antibiotics is associated with increased prevalence of invasive Candida infection. DESIGN: Substudy using data from a randomized controlled trial, the Procalcitonin And Survival Study 2006-2010. SETTING: Nine multidisciplinary ICUs across Denmark. PATIENTS: A total of 1,200 critically ill patients. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly allocated to either a "high exposure" antibiotic therapy (intervention arm, n = 604) or a "standard exposure" guided by current guidelines (n = 596). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-four patients met the endpoint, "invasive Candida infection," 40 in the high exposure arm and 34 in standard exposure arm (relative risk = 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-1.8; p = 0.52). Among medical patients in the high exposure arm, the use of ciprofloxacin and piperacillin/tazobactam was 51% and 75% higher than in the standard exposure arm; no difference in antibiotic exposure was observed between the randomized arms in surgical patients. Among medical intensive care patients, invasive Candida infection was more frequent in the high exposure arm (6.2%; 27/437) than in standard exposure arm (3.3%; 14/424) (hazard ratio = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.6; p = 0.05). Ciprofloxacin used at study entry independently predicted invasive Candida infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.1 [1.1-4.1]); the risk gradually increased with duration of ciprofloxacin therapy: six of 384 in patients not exposed (1.6%), eight of 212 (3.8%) when used for 1-2 days (hazard ratio = 2.5; 95% CI, 0.9-7.3), and 31 of 493 (6.3%) when used for 3 days (hazard ratio = 3.8; 95% CI, 1.6-9.3; p = 0.002). Patients with any ciprofloxacin-containing antibiotic regimen the first 3 days in the trial had a higher risk of invasive Candida infection than did patients on any antibiotic regimen not containing ciprofloxacin (unadjusted hazard ratio = 3.7; 95% CI, 1.6-8.7; p = 0.003; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.4-8.0; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: High exposure to antibiotics is associated to increased risk of invasive Candida infection in medical intensive care patients. Patients with ciprofloxacin-containing regimens had higher risk of invasive Candida infection. Other antibiotics, such as meropenem, piperacillin/tazobactam, and cefuroxime, were not associated with such a risk.

Acceptance rate of clinical study endpoints and adequacy of source documentation: experience from clinical study endpoint review in NEAT001/ANRS143.

INTRODUCTION: NEAT001/ANRS143 was an open-label, randomized, non-inferiority study comparing raltegravir+darunavir/r(RGV+DRV/r) vs. tenofovir/emtricitabine+darunavir/r (TDF/FTC+DRV/r) in HIV-infected antiretroviral naïve adults. Primary efficacy outcome was a composite of virological and clinical events by week 96. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical trial units collected and translated supporting documentation (SD) related to the investigator-reported events. A coordinator checked events and SD for consistency and completeness. The Endpoint Review Committee (ERC) determined if clinical events met pre-defined diagnostic criteria in categories "confirmed" or "probable". The ERC of 12 experienced, independent clinicians served in groups of three conducting individual reviews in writing, blinded to treatment arm. Differences of opinion were adjudicated in a second review by direct dialogue between reviewers. "Confirmed" events required adequate SD like laboratory, radiographic or pathology diagnostic reports. "Probable" events were typically based on clinical criteria. RESULTS: Of the 164 serious and 3,964 adverse events reported in the study, 133 qualified for endpoint review, for a total of 153 adjudications: CONCLUSIONS: Blinded endpoint review prevented unacceptably high false positive event rates documenting that real-time ascertainment of clinical endpoints is crucial for appropriateness of the overall results. Non-confirmed events jeopardize the statistical power in this and probably all kinds of clinical studies. The rejection rate was not indicative of poor study conduct - on the contrary over-reporting prevented missing events, which would have adversely impacted the trial. Adequacy of SD and investigator training on possible differences in event criteria in daily pragmatic clinical management compared to protocol defined criteria is essential.

Ritonavir-boosted darunavir combined with raltegravir or tenofovir-emtricitabine in antiretroviral-naive adults infected with HIV-1: 96 week results from the NEAT001/ANRS143 randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Standard first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1 infection includes two nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NtRTIs), but these drugs have limitations. We assessed the 96 week efficacy and safety of an NtRTI-sparing regimen. METHODS: Between August, 2010, and September, 2011, we enrolled treatment-naive adults into this randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in treatment-naive adults in 15 European countries. The composite primary outcome was change to randomised treatment before week 32 because of insufficient virological response, no virological response by week 32, HIV-1 RNA concentration 50 copies per mL or higher at any time after week 32; death from any cause; any new or recurrent AIDS event; or any serious non-AIDS event. Patients were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral treatment with 400 mg raltegravir twice daily plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (NtRTI-sparing regimen) or tenofovir-emtricitabine in a 245 mg and 200 mg fixed-dose combination once daily, plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (standard regimen). This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01066962. FINDINGS: Of 805 patients enrolled, 401 received the NtRTI-sparing regimen and 404 the standard regimen, with median follow-up of 123 weeks (IQR 112-133). Treatment failure was seen in 77 (19%) in the NtRTI-sparing group and 61 (15%) in the standard group. Kaplan-Meier estimated proportions of treatment failure by week 96 were 17·8% and 13·8%, respectively (difference 4·0%, 95% CI -0·8 to 8·8). The frequency of serious or treatment-modifying adverse events were similar (10·2 vs 8·3 per 100 person-years and 3·9 vs 4·2 per 100 person-years, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Our NtRTI-sparing regimen was non-inferior to standard treatment and represents a treatment option for patients with CD4 cell counts higher than 200 cells per µL. FUNDING: European Union Sixth Framework Programme, Inserm-ANRS, Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Merck Laboratories.

Long-term mortality in HIV-positive individuals virally suppressed for >3 years with incomplete CD4 recovery.

BACKGROUND: Some human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with low CD4 counts achieve viral suppression but not CD4 cell recovery. We aimed to identify (1) risk factors for failure to achieve CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of sustained viral suppression and (2) the association of the achieved CD4 count with subsequent mortality. METHODS: We included treated HIV-infected adults from 2 large international HIV cohorts, who had viral suppression (≤500 HIV type 1 RNA copies/mL) for >3 years with CD4 count ≤200 cells/µL at start of the suppressed period. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for incomplete CD4 recovery (≤200 cells/µL) and Cox regression to identify associations with mortality. RESULTS: Of 5550 eligible individuals, 835 (15%) did not reach a CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of suppression. Increasing age, lower initial CD4 count, male heterosexual and injection drug use transmission, cART initiation after 1998, and longer time from initiation of cART to start of the virally suppressed period were risk factors for not achieving a CD4 count >200 cells/µL. Individuals with CD4 ≤200 cells/µL after 3 years of viral suppression had substantially increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-3.61) compared with those who achieved CD4 count >200 cells/µL. The increased mortality was seen across different patient groups and for all causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals on cART who do not achieve a CD4 count >200 cells/µL have substantially increased long-term mortality.

Risk factors and outcomes for late presentation for HIV-positive persons in Europe: results from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe Study (COHERE).

BACKGROUND: Few studies have monitored late presentation (LP) of HIV infection over the European continent, including Eastern Europe. Study objectives were to explore the impact of LP on AIDS and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: LP was defined in Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) as HIV diagnosis with a CD4 count <350/mm(3) or an AIDS diagnosis within 6 months of HIV diagnosis among persons presenting for care between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2011. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with LP and Poisson regression to explore the impact on AIDS/death. 84,524 individuals from 23 cohorts in 35 countries contributed data; 45,488 were LP (53.8%). LP was highest in heterosexual males (66.1%), Southern European countries (57.0%), and persons originating from Africa (65.1%). LP decreased from 57.3% in 2000 to 51.7% in 2010/2011 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.95-0.97). LP decreased over time in both Central and Northern Europe among homosexual men, and male and female heterosexuals, but increased over time for female heterosexuals and male intravenous drug users (IDUs) from Southern Europe and in male and female IDUs from Eastern Europe. 8,187 AIDS/deaths occurred during 327,003 person-years of follow-up. In the first year after HIV diagnosis, LP was associated with over a 13-fold increased incidence of AIDS/death in Southern Europe (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 13.02; 95% CI 8.19-20.70) and over a 6-fold increased rate in Eastern Europe (aIRR 6.64; 95% CI 3.55-12.43). CONCLUSIONS: LP has decreased over time across Europe, but remains a significant issue in the region in all HIV exposure groups. LP increased in male IDUs and female heterosexuals from Southern Europe and IDUs in Eastern Europe. LP was associated with an increased rate of AIDS/deaths, particularly in the first year after HIV diagnosis, with significant variation across Europe. Earlier and more widespread testing, timely referrals after testing positive, and improved retention in care strategies are required to further reduce the incidence of LP.

Predictors of CD4(+) T-cell counts of HIV type 1-infected persons after virologic failure of all 3 original antiretroviral drug classes.

BACKGROUND: Low CD4(+) T-cell counts are the main factor leading to clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. We aimed to investigate factors affecting CD4(+) T-cell counts after triple-class virological failure. METHODS: We included individuals from the COHERE database who started antiretroviral therapy from 1998 onward and who experienced triple-class virological failure. CD4(+) T-cell counts obtained after triple-class virologic failure were analyzed using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: The analyses included 2424 individuals with a total of 23 922 CD4(+) T-cell count measurements. In adjusted models (excluding current viral load and year), CD4(+) T-cell counts were higher with regimens that included boosted protease inhibitors (increase, 22 cells/µL [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.9-41]; P = .017) or drugs from the new classes (increase, 39 cells/µL [95% CI, 15-62]; P = .001), compared with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. These associations disappeared when current viral load and/or calendar year were included. Compared with viral levels of <2.5 log(10) copies/mL, levels of 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5, 4.5-5.5, and >5.5 log(10) copies/mL were associated with CD4(+) T-cell count decreases of 51, 84, 137, and 186 cells/µL, respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The approximately linear inverse relationship between log(10) viral load and CD4(+) T-cell count indicates that there are likely immunologic benefits from lowering viral load even by modest amounts that do not lead to undetectable viral loads. This is important for patients with low CD4(+) T-cell counts and few drug options.

All-cause mortality in treated HIV-infected adults with CD4 ≥500/mm3 compared with the general population: evidence from a large European observational cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Using data from a large European collaborative study, we aimed to identify the circumstances in which treated HIV-infected individuals will experience similar mortality rates to those of the general population. METHODS: Adults were eligible if they initiated combination anti-retroviral treatment (cART) between 1998 and 2008 and had one prior CD4 measurement within 6 months. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and excess mortality rates compared with the general population were estimated using Poisson regression. Periods of follow-up were classified according to the current CD4 count. RESULTS: Of the 80 642 individuals, 70% were men, 16% were injecting drug users (IDUs), the median age was 37 years, median CD4 count 225/mm(3) at cART initiation and median follow-up was 3.5 years. The overall mortality rate was 1.2/100 person-years (PY) (men: 1.3, women: 0.9), 4.2 times as high as that in the general population (SMR for men: 3.8, for women: 7.4). Among 35 316 individuals with a CD4 count ≥500/mm(3), the mortality rate was 0.37/100 PY (SMR 1.5); mortality rates were similar to those of the general population in non-IDU men [SMR 0.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.7-1.3] and, after 3 years, in women (SMR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.7). Mortality rates in IDUs remained elevated, though a trend to decrease with longer durations with high CD4 count was seen. A prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality patterns in most non-IDU HIV-infected individuals with high CD4 counts on cART are similar to those in the general population. The persistent role of a prior AIDS diagnosis underlines the importance of early diagnosis of HIV infection.

CD4 cell count and the risk of AIDS or death in HIV-Infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy with a suppressed viral load: a longitudinal cohort study from COHERE.

BACKGROUND: Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50-500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30-0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71-0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92-0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl.

Kidney failure related to broad-spectrum antibiotics in critically ill patients: secondary end point results from a 1200 patient randomised trial.

OBJECTIVES: To explore whether a strategy of more intensive antibiotic therapy leads to emergence or prolongation of renal failure in intensive care patients. DESIGN: Secondary analysis from a randomised antibiotic strategy trial (the Procalcitonin And Survival Study). The randomised arms were conserved from the primary trial for the main analysis. SETTING: Nine mixed surgical/medical intensive care units across Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 1200 adult intensive care patients, 18+ years, expected to stay +24 h. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: bilirubin >40 mg/dl, triglycerides >1000 mg/dl, increased risk from blood sampling, pregnant/breast feeding and psychiatric patients. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to guideline-based therapy ('standard-exposure' arm) or to guideline-based therapy supplemented with antibiotic escalation whenever procalcitonin increased on daily measurements ('high-exposure' arm). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary end point: estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Secondary end points: (1) delta eGFR after starting/stopping a drug and (2) RIFLE criterion Risk 'R', Injury 'I' and Failure 'F'. Analysis was by intention to treat. RESULTS: 28-day mortality was 31.8% and comparable (Jensen et al, Crit Care Med 2011). A total of 3672/7634 (48.1%) study days during follow-up in the high-exposure versus 3016/6949 (43.4%) in the 'standard-exposure arm were spent with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), p<0.001. In a multiple effects model, 3 piperacillin/tazobactam was identified as causing the lowest rate of renal recovery of all antibiotics used: 1.0 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/24 h while exposed to this drug (95% CI 0.7 to 1.3 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/24 h) vs meropenem: 2.9 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/24 h (2.5 to 3.3 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/24 h)); after discontinuing piperacillin/tazobactam, the renal recovery rate increased: 2.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/24 h (2.3 to 3.1 ml/min/1.73 m(2) /24 h)). eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in the two groups at entry and at last day of follow-up was 57% versus 55% and 41% versus 39%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Piperacillin/tazobactam was identified as a cause of delayed renal recovery in critically ill patients. This nephrotoxicity was not observed when using other beta-lactam antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00271752.

Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of triple-class virologic failure in antiretroviral drug-experienced people with HIV in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), virologic failure of the 3 original classes [triple-class virologic failure, (TCVF)] still develops in a small minority of patients who started therapy in the triple combination ART era. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF over calendar time have not been fully characterised in recent years. METHODS: Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF from 2000 to 2009 were assessed in patients who started ART from January 1, 1998, and were followed within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE). RESULTS: Of 91,764 patients followed for a median (interquartile range) of 4.1 (2.0-7.1) years, 2722 (3.0%) developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF increased from 3.9 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7 to 4.1] in 2000 to 8.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 8.5 to 9.0) in 2005, but then declined to 5.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.1) by 2009. The prevalence of TCVF was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.27% to 0.42%) at December 31, 2000, and then increased to 2.4% (95% CI: 2.24% to 2.50%) by the end of 2005. However, since 2005, TCVF prevalence seems to have stabilized and has remained below 3%. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of TCVF in people who started ART after 1998 has stabilized since around 2005, which most likely results from the decline in incidence of TCVF from this date. The introduction of improved regimens and better overall HIV care is likely to have contributed to these trends. Despite this progress, calendar trends should continue to be monitored in the long term.

Trends in virological and clinical outcomes in individuals with HIV-1 infection and virological failure of drugs from three antiretroviral drug classes: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Limited treatment options have been available for people with HIV who have had virological failure of the three original classes of HIV antiretroviral drugs-so-called triple-class virological failure (TCVF). However, introduction of new drugs and drug classes might have improved outcomes. We aimed to assess trends in virological and clinical outcomes for individuals with TCVF in 2000-09. METHODS: In our cohort study, we analysed data for adults starting antiretroviral therapy from 1998 in cohorts participating in the PLATO II project, which is part of COHERE, a collaboration of European cohorts. TCVF was defined as virological failure to at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, and one ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, with virological failure of a drug defined as one viral-load measurement of greater than 500 copies per mL after at least 4 months of continuous use. We used multivariable generalised estimating equation logistic models and Poisson regression models to study trends in virological suppression and incidence of AIDS or death after TCVF. We adjusted for sex, transmission group, age, AIDS status, CD4 cell count, plasma viral loads at TCVF, achievement of virological response (<50 copies per mL), and number of drug failures before TCVF. FINDINGS: 28 of 33 cohorts in COHERE contributed data to the PLATO II project, of which four had no participants eligible for inclusion in this study. 2476 (3%) of 91 764 participants from the remaining 24 cohorts had TCVF and at least one viral load measurement in 2000-09. The proportion of patients with virological response after TCVF increased from 19·5% in 2000 to 57·9% in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Incidence of AIDS decreased from 7·7 per 100 person-years in 2000-02 to 2·3 in 2008 and 1·2 in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Mortality decreased from 4·0 per 100 person-years between 2000 and 2002 to 1·9 in 2007 and 1·4 in 2008 (unadjusted p=0·023), but the trend was not significant after adjustment (p=0·22). INTERPRETATION: A substantial improvement in viral load suppression and accompanying decrease in the rates of AIDS in people after extensive failure to drugs from the three original antiretroviral classes during 2000-09 was probably mainly driven by availability of newer drugs with better tolerability and ease of use and small cross-resistance profiles, suggesting the public health benefit of the introduction of new drugs.

Procalcitonin-guided interventions against infections to increase early appropriate antibiotics and improve survival in the intensive care unit: a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: For patients in intensive care units, sepsis is a common and potentially deadly complication and prompt initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy improves prognosis. The objective of this trial was to determine whether a strategy of antimicrobial spectrum escalation, guided by daily measurements of the biomarker procalcitonin, could reduce the time to appropriate therapy, thus improving survival. DESIGN: Randomized controlled open-label trial. SETTING: Nine multidisciplinary intensive care units across Denmark. PATIENTS: A total of 1,200 critically ill patients were included after meeting the following eligibility requirements: expected intensive care unit stay of ≥ 24 hrs, nonpregnant, judged to not be harmed by blood sampling, bilirubin <40 mg/dL, and triglycerides <1000 mg/dL (not suspensive). INTERVENTIONS: : Patients were randomized either to the "standard-of-care-only arm," receiving treatment according to the current international guidelines and blinded to procalcitonin levels, or to the "procalcitonin arm," in which current guidelines were supplemented with a drug-escalation algorithm and intensified diagnostics based on daily procalcitonin measurements. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary end point was death from any cause at day 28; this occurred for 31.5% (190 of 604) patients in the procalcitonin arm and for 32.0% (191 of 596) patients in the standard-of-care-only arm (absolute risk reduction, 0.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] -4.7% to 5.9%). Length of stay in the intensive care unit was increased by one day (p = .004) in the procalcitonin arm, the rate of mechanical ventilation per day in the intensive care unit increased 4.9% (95% CI, 3.0-6.7%), and the relative risk of days with estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.15-1.27). CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin-guided antimicrobial escalation in the intensive care unit did not improve survival and did lead to organ-related harm and prolonged admission to the intensive care unit. The procalcitonin strategy like the one used in this trial cannot be recommended.

Risk of triple-class virological failure in children with HIV: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In adults with HIV treated with antiretroviral drug regimens from within the three original drug classes (nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTIs], non-NRTIs [NNRTIs], and protease inhibitors), virological failure occurs slowly, suggesting that long-term virological suppression can be achieved in most people, even in areas where access is restricted to drugs from these classes. It is unclear whether this is the case for children, the group who will need to maintain viral suppression for longest. We aimed to determine the rate and predictors of triple-class virological failure to the three original drugs classes in children. METHODS: In the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe, the rate of triple-class virological failure was studied in children infected perinatally with HIV who were aged less than 16 years, starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) with three or more drugs, between 1998 and 2008. We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods to investigate the risk and predictors of triple-class virological failure after ART initiation. FINDINGS: Of 1007 children followed up for a median of 4·2 (IQR 2·4-6·5) years, 237 (24%) were triple-class exposed and 105 (10%) had triple-class virological failure, of whom 29 never had a viral-load measurement less than 500 copies per mL. Incidence of triple-class virological failure after ART initiation increased with time, and risk by 5 years after ART initiation was 12·0% (95% CI 9·4-14·6). In multivariate analysis, older age at ART initiation was associated with increased risk of failure (p=0·02). Of 686 children starting ART with NRTIs and either a NNRTI or ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, the rate of failure was higher than in adults with heterosexually transmitted HIV (hazard ratio 2·2 [95% CI 1·6-3·0, p<0·0001]). INTERPRETATION: Findings highlight the challenges of attaining long-term viral suppression in children who will be taking life-long ART. Early identification of children not responding to ART, adherence support, particularly for children and adolescents aged 13 years or older starting ART, and ART simplification strategies are all needed to attain and sustain virological suppression. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council award G0700832.