Factors associated with reactogenicity to an investigational HIV vaccine regimen in HIV vaccine trials network 702.

BACKGROUND: Reactogenicity informs vaccine safety, and may influence vaccine uptake. We evaluated factors associated with reactogenicity in HVTN 702, a typical HIV vaccine efficacy trial with multiple doses and products. METHODS: HVTN 702, a phase 2b/3 double-blind placebo-controlled trial, randomized 5404 African participants aged 18-35 years without HIV to placebo, or ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) at months 0, 1 and ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) + Bivalent Subtype C gp120/MF59 at months 3, 6, 12 and 18. Using multivariate logistic regression, we evaluated associations between reactogenicity with clinical, sociodemographic and laboratory variables. RESULTS: More vaccine than placebo-recipients reported local symptoms (all p < 0.001), arthralgia (p = 0.008), chills (p = 0.012) and myalgia (p < 0.001). Reactogenicity was associated with female sex at birth (ORv = 2.50, ORp = 1.81, both p < 0.001) and geographic region. Amongst vaccine-recipients, each year of age was associated with 3 % increase in reactogenicity (OR = 1.03, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Vaccine receipt, female sex at birth, older age, and region may affect reactogenicity.

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in participants with weakened immune systems from four randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing severe disease in the general population, current data are lacking regarding vaccine efficacy (VE) for individuals with mild immunocompromising conditions. METHODS: A post-hoc, cross-protocol analysis of participant-level data from the blinded phase of four randomized, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trials (Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax) was performed. We defined a "tempered immune system" (TIS) variable via a consensus panel based on medical history and medications to determine VE against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases in TIS participants versus non-TIS (NTIS) individuals starting at 14 days after completion of the primary series through the blinded phase for each of the four trials. An analysis of participants living with well-controlled HIV was conducted using the same methods. RESULTS: 3,852/30,351 (12.7%) Moderna participants, 3,088/29,868 (10.3%) Novavax participants, 3,549/32,380 (11.0%) AstraZeneca participants, and 5,047/43,788 (11.5%) Janssen participants were identified as having a TIS. Most TIS conditions (73.9%) were due to metabolism and nutritional disorders. Vaccination (versus placebo) significantly reduced the likelihood of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 for all participants for each trial. VE was not significantly different for TIS participants vs NTIS for either symptomatic or severe COVID-19 for each trial, nor was VE significantly different in the symptomatic endpoint for participants with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with mildly immunocompromising conditions, there is no evidence of differences in VE against symptomatic or severe COVID-19 compared to those with non-tempered immune systems in the four COVID-19 vaccine randomized controlled efficacy trials.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Safety of a second homologous Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers in the phase 3b implementation Sisonke study in South Africa.

The Sisonke 2 study provided a homologous boost at least 6 months after administration of the priming dose of Ad26.COV2.S for healthcare workers enrolled on the Sisonke phase 3b implementation study. Safety monitoring was via five reporting sources: (i.) self-report through a web-link; (ii.) paper-based case report forms; (iii.) a toll-free telephonic reporting line; (iv.) healthcare professionals-initiated reports; and (v.) active linkage with National Disease Databases. A total of 2350 adverse events were reported by 2117 of the 240 888 (0.88%) participants enrolled; 1625 of the 2350 reported events are reactogenicity events and 28 adverse events met seriousness criteria. No cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopaenia syndrome were reported; all adverse events including thromboembolic disorders occurred at a rate below the expected population rates apart from one case of Guillain Barre Syndrome and one case of portal vein thrombosis. The Sisonke 2 study demonstrates that two doses of Ad26.COV2.S is safe and well tolerated; and provides a feasible model for national pharmacovigilance strategies for low- and middle-income settings.

Homologous Ad26.COV2.S vaccination results in reduced boosting of humoral responses in hybrid immunity, but elicits antibodies of similar magnitude regardless of prior infection.

The impact of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on the durability of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine-elicited responses, and the effect of homologous boosting has not been well explored. We followed a cohort of healthcare workers for 6 months after receiving the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and a further one month after they received an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose. We assessed longitudinal spike-specific antibody and T cell responses in individuals who had never had SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those who were infected with either the D614G or Beta variants prior to vaccination. Antibody and T cell responses elicited by the primary dose were durable against several variants of concern over the 6 month follow-up period, regardless of infection history. However, at 6 months after first vaccination, antibody binding, neutralization and ADCC were as much as 59-fold higher in individuals with hybrid immunity compared to those with no prior infection. Antibody cross-reactivity profiles of the previously infected groups were similar at 6 months, unlike at earlier time points, suggesting that the effect of immune imprinting diminishes by 6 months. Importantly, an Ad26.COV2.S booster dose increased the magnitude of the antibody response in individuals with no prior infection to similar levels as those with previous infection. The magnitude of spike T cell responses and proportion of T cell responders remained stable after homologous boosting, concomitant with a significant increase in long-lived early differentiated CD4 memory T cells. Thus, these data highlight that multiple antigen exposures, whether through infection and vaccination or vaccination alone, result in similar boosts after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination.

Cholera vaccine clinical trials: A cross-sectional analysis of clinical trials registries.

Cholera has been one of the world's biggest public health challenges for centuries. The presence of this disease brings into focus the social determinants of health in different parts of the world. Research and development efforts to find safe and effective Cholera vaccines are critical to decreasing the disease burden from Vibrio cholerae. We searched the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) on 5 March 2023. We included all registered randomized trials studying Cholera vaccines. We used Microsoft Excel to perform a descriptive analysis of the source registry, geographic distribution, recruitment status, phase of trials, and type of trial sponsor and presented the findings using tables and graphs. The search of ICTRP yielded 84 trials, and 315 trials were identified from CENTRAL. Seventy-four trials were included in the analysis. Most of the trials (66%, n = 49) were registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, followed by Clinical Trials Registry - India (9%, n = 7) and the Cuban Public Registry of Clinical Trials (8%, n = 6). The geographical distribution of the trials indicates that 48% (n = 36) of the trials were conducted in Asia, followed by 23% (n = 17) in North America, 15% (n = 11) in Africa, and 11% (n = 8) in Europe. Results further indicate that 81% (n = 60) of trials have a recruitment status "Not recruiting," followed by 12% (n = 9) with a status "recruiting." With the recent surge in Cholera cases and the limited supply of Cholera vaccines, research indicates the need for Cholera vaccine trials to ensure the availability of vaccines, especially in populations affected.

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination.

BACKGROUND: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. METHODS: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. FINDINGS: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. INTERPRETATION: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Infection pre-Ad26.COV2.S-vaccination primes greater class switching and reduced CXCR5 expression by SARS-CoV-2-specific memory B cells.

Neutralizing antibodies strongly correlate with protection for COVID-19 vaccines, but the corresponding memory B cells that form to protect against future infection are relatively understudied. Here we examine the effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on the magnitude and phenotype of the memory B cell response to single dose Johnson and Johnson (Ad26.COV2.S) vaccination in South African health care workers. Participants were either naïve to SARS-CoV-2 or had been infected before vaccination. SARS-CoV-2-specific memory B-cells expand in response to Ad26.COV2.S and are maintained for the study duration (84 days) in all individuals. However, prior infection is associated with a greater frequency of these cells, a significant reduction in expression of the germinal center chemokine receptor CXCR5, and increased class switching. These B cell features correlated with neutralization and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity (ADCC) activity, and with the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 specific circulating T follicular helper cells (cTfh). Vaccination-induced effective neutralization of the D614G variant in both infected and naïve participants but boosted neutralizing antibodies against the Beta and Omicron variants only in participants with prior infection. In addition, the SARS-CoV-2 specific CD8+ T cell response correlated with increased memory B cell expression of the lung-homing receptor CXCR3, which was sustained in the previously infected group. Finally, although vaccination achieved equivalent B cell activation regardless of infection history, it was negatively impacted by age. These data show that phenotyping the response to vaccination can provide insight into the impact of prior infection on memory B cell homing, CSM, cTfh, and neutralization activity. These data can provide early signals to inform studies of vaccine boosting, durability, and co-morbidities.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

Clinical and Demographic Factors Associated With COVID-19, Severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adults: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Current data identifying COVID-19 risk factors lack standardized outcomes and insufficiently control for confounders. Objective: To identify risk factors associated with COVID-19, severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary cross-protocol analysis included 4 multicenter, international, randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with harmonized protocols established by the COVID-19 Prevention Network. Individual-level data from participants randomized to receive placebo within each trial were combined and analyzed. Enrollment began July 2020 and the last data cutoff was in July 2021. Participants included adults in stable health, at risk for SARS-CoV-2, and assigned to the placebo group within each vaccine trial. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to February 2023. Exposures: Comorbid conditions, demographic factors, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk at the time of enrollment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Coprimary outcomes were COVID-19 and severe COVID-19. Multivariate Cox proportional regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for baseline covariates, accounting for trial, region, and calendar time. Secondary outcomes included severe COVID-19 among people with COVID-19, subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: A total of 57 692 participants (median [range] age, 51 [18-95] years; 11 720 participants [20.3%] aged ≥65 years; 31 058 participants [53.8%] assigned male at birth) were included. The analysis population included 3270 American Indian or Alaska Native participants (5.7%), 7849 Black or African American participants (13.6%), 17 678 Hispanic or Latino participants (30.6%), and 40 745 White participants (70.6%). Annualized incidence was 13.9% (95% CI, 13.3%-14.4%) for COVID-19 and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.2%) for severe COVID-19. Factors associated with increased rates of COVID-19 included workplace exposure (high vs low: aHR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.16-1.58]; medium vs low: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.65]; P < .001) and living condition risk (very high vs low risk: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.66]; medium vs low risk: aHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.08-1.32]; P < .001). Factors associated with decreased rates of COVID-19 included previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.09-0.19]; P < .001), age 65 years or older (aHR vs age <65 years, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.50-0.64]; P < .001) and Black or African American race (aHR vs White race, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.91]; P = .002). Factors associated with increased rates of severe COVID-19 included race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.85-3.69]; multiracial vs White: aHR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.50-3.20]; P < .001), diabetes (aHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.14-2.08]; P = .005) and at least 2 comorbidities (aHR vs none, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.09-1.76]; P = .008). In analyses restricted to participants who contracted COVID-19, increased severe COVID-19 rates were associated with age 65 years or older (aHR vs <65 years, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.32-2.31]; P < .001), race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.38-2.83]; Black or African American vs White: aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.03-2.14]; multiracial: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.21-2.69]; overall P = .001), body mass index (aHR per 1-unit increase, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; P = .001), and diabetes (aHR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.37-2.49]; P < .001). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with decreased severe COVID-19 rates (aHR, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.14]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary cross-protocol analysis of 4 randomized clinical trials, exposure and demographic factors had the strongest associations with outcomes; results could inform mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with comparable epidemiological characteristics.

Laboratory services in the context of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV testing requirements in Copperbelt Province, Zambia: a qualitative inquiry.

INTRODUCTION: Reliable and timely laboratory results are crucial for monitoring the Prevention of the Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) cascade, particularly to enable early HIV diagnosis and early intervention. We sought to explore whether and how laboratory services have been prepared to absorb new testing requirements following PMTCT Test-and-Treat policy changes in three districts of Zambia. METHOD: We employed in-depth interviews and thematic data analysis, informed by the health system dynamic framework. Twenty-Six health workers were purposively selected and a document review of laboratory services in the context of PMTCT was undertaken. All face-to-face interviews were conducted in three local government areas in the Copperbelt Province (one urban and two rural) between February 2019 and July 2020. We extracted notes and markings from the transcripts for coding. Different codes were sorted into potential themes and the data extracted were put within the identified themes. Trustworthiness was confirmed by keeping records of all data field notes, transcripts, and reflexive journals. RESULTS: The findings revealed that the health system inputs (infrastructure and supplies, human resources, knowledge, and information and finance) and service delivery were unequal between the rural and urban sites, and this affected the ability of health facilities to apply the new testing requirements, especially, in the rural-based health facilities. The major barriers identified include gaps in the capacity of the existing laboratory system to perform crucial PMTCT clinical and surveillance functions in a coordinated manner and insufficient skilled human resources to absorb the increased testing demands. The centralized laboratory system for HIV testing of mothers and exposed neonates meant facilities had to send specimens to other facilities and districts which resulted in high turnaround time and hence delayed HIV diagnosis. CONCLUSION: New guidelines implemented without sufficient capacitation of health system laboratory capacity severely limited the effectiveness of PMTCT program implementation. This study documented the areas relating to health system inputs and laboratory service delivery where greater support to enable the absorption of the new testing requirements is needed.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) mRNA vaccination in adolescents aged 12-17 years: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The rapid emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern (VOCs) has hindered vaccine uptake. To inform policy, we investigated the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccination among adolescents against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 diseases using mostly real-world data (15 studies). We searched international databases until May 2022 and used Cochrane's risk of bias tools for critical appraisal. Random effects models were used to examine overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) across studies (general inverse-variance) and the effect of circulating VOCs on VE (log relative ratio and VE). Meta-regression assessed the effect of age and time on VE (restricted-maximum likelihood). BNT162b2 VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 82.7% (95%CI: 78.37-87.31%). VE was higher for severe (88%) than non-severe (35%) outcomes and declining over time improved following booster dose in omicron era [73%(95%CI:65-81%)]. Fully vaccinated adolescents are protected from COVID-19 circulating VOCs by BNT162b2 especially for the need of critical care or life support.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents following COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccination.

Myocarditis and pericarditis are frequent complications of COVID-19, but have also been reported following vaccination against COVID-19 in adolescents. To build vaccine confidence and inform policy, we characterized the incidence of myocarditis/pericarditis in adolescents following BNT162b2 vaccination and explored the association with dose and sex. We searched national and international databases for studies reporting the incidence of myocarditis/pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination as the primary endpoint. The intra-study risk of bias was appraised, and random-effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate the pooled incidence by dose stratified by sex. The pooled incidence of myocarditis/pericarditis was 4.5 (95%CI: 3.14-6.11) per 100,000 vaccinations across all doses. Compared to dose 1, the risk was significantly higher after dose 2 (RR: 8.62, 95%CI: 5.71-13.03). However, adolescents experienced a low risk after a booster dose than after dose 2 (RR: 0.06; 95%CI: 0.04-0.09). Males were approximately seven times (RR: 6.66, 95%CI: 4.77-4.29) more likely than females to present myocarditis/pericarditis. In conclusion, we found a low frequency of myocarditis/pericarditis after BNT162b2, which occurred predominantly after the second dose in male adolescents. The prognosis appears to be favorable, with full recovery in both males and females. National programs are recommended to adopt the causality framework to reduce overreporting, which undercuts the value of the COVID-19 vaccine on adolescent life, as well as to extend the inter-dose interval policy, which has been linked to a lower frequency of myocarditis/pericarditis.

COVID-19 as a catalyst for vaccine manufacturing: A South African experience.

COVID-19 highlighted inequitable vaccine distribution and the urgent need for vaccine manufacturing capacity on the African continent. This resulted in a burst of scientific engagement and international funding to augment capacity on the continent. However, short-term investment needs to be reinforced by a robust, strategic long-term plan to ensure sustainability.

Wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 airport surveillance: key trends at the Cape Town International Airport.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater has revealed the role of mobility in the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the surveillance of airport wastewater in cities across the world has demonstrated how travel entry points can give an indication of trends in transmission. This study undertook wastewater surveillance at the Cape Town International Airport (CTIA) to assess the use of a WBE approach to provide supplementary information on the presence of COVID-19 at a key air travel entry point in South Africa. Grab wastewater samples (n = 55) were collected from the CTIA wastewater pump station and analysed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) method. The study found a correlation between the wastewater data and clinical cases reported in the City of Cape Town during various time periods and during the peak of a COVID-19 wave. Highly elevated viral loads in the wastewater were observed at times there was increased mobility through the airport. The study also revealed elevated viral load levels at the airport despite the stricter restrictions and through the lower restrictions. The study findings indicate wastewater surveillance and airports can provide supplementary information to airport authorities to assess the impacts of imposed travel restrictions.

Counterfactual estimation of efficacy against placebo for novel PrEP agents using external trial data: example of injectable cabotegravir and oral PrEP in women.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple antiretroviral agents have demonstrated efficacy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). As a result, clinical trials of novel agents have transitioned from placebo- to active-controlled designs; however, active-controlled trials do not provide an estimate of efficacy versus no use of PrEP. Counterfactual placebo comparisons using other data sources could be employed to provide this information. METHODS: We compared the active-controlled study (HPTN 084) of injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) versus daily oral emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) among women from seven countries in Africa to three external, contemporaneous randomized HIV prevention trials from which we constructed counterfactual placebo estimates. We used direct standardization via analysis weights to achieve the same distribution of person-years between the external study and HPTN 084, across strata predictive of HIV risk (country and selected risk covariates). We estimated prevention efficacy against a counterfactual placebo to provide information on the use of CAB-LA and FTC/TDF compared to no intervention. We compared the counterfactual placebo findings for FTC/TDF to previous placebo-controlled trials, adjusted for observed adherence to daily pills. RESULTS: Distribution of age and baseline prevalence of gonorrhoea and chlamydia were similar among matched counterfactual placebo and observed HPTN 084 arms after standardization. Counterfactual estimates of CAB-LA versus placebo in all three settings showed a consistent risk reduction of 93%-94%, with lower bounds of the confidence intervals above 72%. Observed adherence (quantifiable tenofovir in plasma) in HPTN 084 was 54%-56%, and estimated efficacy of daily oral FTC/TDF against a counterfactual placebo was consistent with a predicted risk reduction of 39%-40% for this level of daily pill use. CONCLUSIONS: Counterfactual placebo rates of HIV acquisition derived from external trial data in similar locations and time can be used to support estimates of placebo-based efficacy of a novel HIV prevention agent. External trial data must be standardized to be representative of the clinical trial cohort testing the novel HIV prevention agent, accounting for confounders.

Modifiers of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy: Results from four COVID-19 prevention network efficacy trials.

Questions remain regarding the effect of baseline host and exposure factors on vaccine efficacy (VE) across pathogens and vaccine platforms. We report placebo-controlled data from four Phase 3 COVID-19 trials during the early period of the pandemic. This was a cross-protocol analysis of four randomized, placebo-controlled efficacy trials (Moderna/mRNA1273, AstraZeneca/AZD1222, Janssen/Ad26.COV2.S, and Novavax/NVX-CoV2373) using a harmonized design. Trials were conducted in the United States and international sites in adults ≥ 18 years of age. VE was assessed for symptomatic and severe COVID-19. We analyzed 114,480 participants from both placebo and vaccine arms, enrolled July 2020 to February 2021, with follow up through July 2021. VE against symptomatic COVID-19 showed little heterogeneity across baseline socio-demographic, clinical or exposure characteristics, in either univariate or multivariate analysis, regardless of vaccine platform. Similarly, VE against severe COVID-19 in the single trial (Janssen) with sufficient endpoints for analysis showed little evidence of heterogeneity. COVID-19 VE is not influenced by baseline host or exposure characteristics across efficacy trials of different vaccine platforms and countries when well matched to circulating virus strains. This supports use of these vaccines, regardless of platform type, as effective tools in the near term for reducing symptomatic and severe COVID-19, particularly for older individuals and those with common co-morbidities during major variant shifts. Clinical trial registration numbers: NCT04470427, NCT04516746, NCT04505722, and NCT04611802.