Development and External Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model to Identify Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia and Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: Diabetes Risk Assessment in Dentistry Score (DDS).

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a score for use in dental settings to identify those at risk of undiagnosed nondiabetic hyperglycemia (NDH) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Studies of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project comprises 2 representative population-based cohort studies conducted in northeast Germany. SHIP-TREND-0, 2008 to 2012 (the development data set) had 3,339 eligible participants, with 329 having undiagnosed NDH or T2D. Missing data were replaced using multiple imputation. Potential covariates were selected for inclusion in the model using backward elimination. Heuristic shrinkage was used to reduce overfitting, and the final model was adjusted for optimism. We report the full model and a simplified paper-based point-score system. External validation of the model and score employed an independent data set comprising 2,359 participants with 357 events. Predictive performance, discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, first-degree relative with diabetes, presence of a dental prosthesis, presence of mobile teeth, history of periodontal treatment, and probing pocket depths ≥5 mm as well as prespecified interaction terms. In SHIP-TREND-0, the model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69, 0.75), calibration in the large was -0.025. The point score AUC was 0.69 (95% CI 0.65, 0.72), with sensitivity of 77.0 (95% CI 76.8, 77.2), specificity of 51.5 (95% CI 51.4, 51.7), negative predictive value of 94.5 (95% CI 94.5, 94.6), and positive predictive value of 17.0 (95% CI 17.0, 17.1). External validation of the point score gave an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66, 0.71), sensitivity of 79.2 (95% CI 79.0, 79.4), specificity of 49.9 (95% CI 49.8, 50.00), negative predictive value 91.5 (95% CI 91.5, 91.6), and positive predictive value of 25.9 (95% CI 25.8, 26.0). A validated prediction model involving dental variables can identify NDH or undiagnosed T2DM. Further studies are required to validate the model for different European populations.

Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events.

Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface.

Use of dental practices for the identification of adults with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus or non-diabetic hyperglycaemia: a systematic review.

AIM: Type 2 diabetes is a growing global challenge. Evidence exists demonstrating the use of primary care (non-hospital based) dental practices to identify, through risk assessments, those who may be at increased risk of type 2 diabetes or who may already unknowingly have the condition. This review aimed to synthesize evidence associated with the use of primary care dental services for the identification of undiagnosed non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or type 2 diabetes in adults, with particular focus on the pick-up rate of new cases. METHOD: Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting the identification of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia/type 2 diabetes in primary care dental settings. Returned articles were screened and two independent reviewers completed the data-extraction process. A descriptive synthesis of the included articles was undertaken due to the heterogeneity of the literature returned. RESULTS: Nine studies were identified, the majority of which utilized a two-stage risk-assessment process with risk score followed by a point-of-care capillary blood test. The main barriers cited were cost, lack of adequate insurance cover and people having previously been tested elsewhere. The pick-up rate of new cases of type 2 diabetes and non-diabetic hyperglycaemia varied greatly between studies, ranging from 1.7% to 24% for type 2 diabetes and from 23% to 45% for non-diabetic hyperglycaemia, where reported. CONCLUSION: This review demonstrates that although it appears there may be benefit in using the dental workforce to identify undiagnosed cases of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and type 2 diabetes, further high-quality research in the field is required assessing both the clinical and cost effectiveness of such practice. (Prospero Registration ID: PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018098750).

Diabetes in adults with intellectual disability: prevalence and associated demographic, lifestyle, independence and health factors.

BACKGROUND: As people with intellectual disabilities (ID) are now living longer, they are more at risk of developing non-communicable diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, understanding of factors associated with diabetes for targeted management and prevention strategies is limited. This study aimed to investigate prevalence of diabetes in adults (aged ≥18 years) with ID and its relationship with demographic, lifestyle, independence and health factors. METHOD: This was a cross-sectional analysis of interview data from 1091 adults with ID from the Leicestershire Learning Disability Register from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with diabetes in the study population. RESULTS: The study population did not have healthy lifestyles: just under half reported having lower physical activity levels than people without ID of a similar age; one-quarter consumed fizzy drinks daily; and 20% consumed five or more fruit and/or vegetables per day. Prevalence of carer/self-reported diabetes was 7.3% (95% confidence interval 5.9-9.0). After adjustment, diabetes was positively associated with South Asian ethnicity (P = 0.03) and older age groups (P < 0.001). Diabetes was less common in people living with family members (P = 0.02). We did not find a relationship between any of the lifestyle, independence and health factors investigated. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of people with ID are living with diabetes. Diabetes management and prevention strategies should be tailored to individuals' complex needs and include consideration of lifestyle choices. Such strategies may want to focus on adults of South Asian ethnicity and people living in residential homes where prevalence appears to be higher.

The Microalbuminuria Education Medication and Optimisation (MEMO) study: 4 years follow-up of multifactorial intervention in high-risk individuals with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: The Microalbuminuria Education Medication and Optimisation (MEMO) study, revealed improved cardiovascular risk and glycaemic control with 18 months of intensive multifactorial intervention in high-risk people with type 2 diabetes, without any increase in severe hypoglycaemia. Our aim was to assess longer-term outcomes at 4-year follow-up in these participants. METHODS: Some 189 individuals with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria were recruited from a multi-ethnic population in Leicestershire, UK. The intervention group (n = 95) received multifactorial intervention with self-management education, and the control group (n = 94) received usual care. The primary outcome was change in HbA1c , and secondary outcomes were blood pressure (BP), cholesterol, microalbuminuria, estimated GFR, cardiovascular risk scores and major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: Some 130 participants (68.7%), mean (sd) age 60.8 (10.4) years, duration of diabetes 11.5 (9.7) years, completed 4 years of follow-up. Mean change [95% confidence intervals (CI)] in HbA1c over 4 years was greater with intensive intervention compared with control (-3 mmol/mol, 95% CI -4.95,-1.11; -0.4%, 95% CI -0.67,-0.15; P = 0.002). Significant improvements over the 4 years were also seen in systolic BP (-7.3 mmHg, 95% CI -11.1, -3.5; P < 0.001), diastolic BP (-2.9 mmHg, 95% CI -5.4, -0.3; P = 0.026), cholesterol (-0.3 mmol/l, 95% CI -0.52,-0.12; P = 0.002), and 10-year coronary heart disease (-5.3, 95% CI -8.2,-2.3; P < 0.001) and stroke risk (-4.4, 95% CI -7.5, -1.3; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Multifactorial intervention with structured diabetes self-management education compared with usual diabetes care has benefits for cardio-metabolic risk factor profile. There was no increase in severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular mortality despite intensive glycaemic control, although the study was not powered to assess these outcomes.

Cardiovascular efficacy and safety of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

AIMS: To compare the cardiovascular efficacy and safety of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in adults with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched from inception to 22 October 2018 for randomized controlled trials designed to assess the cardiovascular efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs with regard to a three-point composite measure of major adverse cardiovascular events (non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality). Cardiovascular and safety data were synthesized using Bayesian network meta-analyses. RESULTS: Eight trials, including 60 082 participants, were deemed eligible for the network meta-analysis. Both SGLT2 inhibitors [hazard ratio 0.86 (95% credible interval 0.74, 1.01]) and GLP-1RAs [hazard ratio 0.88 (95% credible interval 0.78, 0.98)] reduced the three-point composite measure compared to placebo, with no evidence of differences between them [GLP-1RAs vs SGLT2 inhibitors: hazard ratio 1.02 (95% credible interval 0.83, 1.23)]. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced risk of hospital admission for heart failure compared to placebo [hazard ratio 0.67 (95% credible interval 0.53, 0.85)] and GLP-1RAs [hazard ratio 0.71 (95% credible interval 0.53, 0.93)]. No differences were found between the two drug classes in non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality or safety outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs reduced the three-point major adverse cardiovascular event risk compared to placebo, with no differences between them. Compared with GLP-1RAs and placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors led to a larger reduction in hospital admission for heart failure risk.

Numerical study on electrohydrodynamic multiple droplet interactions.

We present a numerical study of inviscid multiple droplet coalescence and break-up under the action of electric forces. Using an embedded potential flow model for the droplet hydrodynamics, coupled with an unbounded exterior electrostatic problem, we are able to perform computations through various singular events and analyze the effects of the electrical field intensity on droplet interactions. Laboratory experiments on the electrodynamics of droplet pairs show a much richer, and sometimes unexpected, behavior than that of isolated droplets. For example, it has been found that opposite charged droplets tend to repel each other when the electric field intensity is above a certain critical value. Although the mathematical model employed in this work incorporates very simple flow and electric assumptions, many of the droplet coalescence patterns seen in laboratory experiments can be reproduced. In this model, the interaction pattern of two droplets of radii R_{0} separated a distance D_{0}, depends on the ratio X_{0}=D_{0}/R_{0} and the applied uniform electric field intensity, E_{∞}. By performing a vast number of numerical simulations we are able to characterize the coalescence modes before and after drop merging as a function of these two parameters. The simulations predict that droplet repulsion occurs within a narrow interval of E_{∞} values, different for each X_{0}. Surprisingly, in this E_{∞} interval, a sharp transition between two power-law precoalescence flow regimes is seen. The evolution of several flow characteristics before and after coalescence, and the shape of the deformed droplets at coalescing time and the double cone angle, are also addressed and analyzed in detail. Cone angles below 35^{∘} lead to droplet coalescence for any X_{0} value, which is in accordance with previously reported studies. Finally, it is shown that the model and algorithm can handle multiple droplet interactions. The simulations qualitatively match results from water in oil experiments in microchannels, despite the fact that the exterior fluid is not considered in the mathematical model.

Multimorbidity and lifestyle factors among adults with intellectual disabilities: a cross-sectional analysis of a UK cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity [two or more conditions in addition to intellectual disability (ID)] is known to be more common among people with ID. However, the relationship between multimorbidity and lifestyle factors is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity in a population of adults with ID. We also aimed to identify risk factors, including lifestyle factors, for multimorbidity in this population. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis using data from a diabetes screening study of 920 adults aged 18-74 years with ID living in Leicestershire, UK. We described comorbidities and the prevalence of multimorbidity in this population. We explored the relationship between multimorbidity and age, gender, ethnicity, severity of ID, socio-economic status, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, fruit and vegetable consumption and smoking status using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 61.2% (95% CI 57.7-64.7). Multimorbidity was independently associated with being female (P < 0.001) and severe/profound ID (P = 0.004). Increasing age was of borderline significance (P = 0.06). Individuals who were physically inactive or sedentary were more likely to be multimorbid, independent of ability to walk, age, gender, severity of ID, ethnicity and socio-economic status (adjusted OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.23-2.97; P = 0.004 and OR = 1.98; 95% CI 1.42-2.77; P < 0.001). After excluding probable life-long conditions (autism spectrum conditions, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, epilepsy, cerebral palsy and other paralytic syndromes) as contributing comorbidities, the effect of sedentary behaviour, but not physical activity, remained (P = 0.004). We did not observe a relationship between multimorbidity, fruit and vegetable consumption and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity presents a significant burden to people with ID. Individuals who were physically inactive or sedentary were more likely to be multimorbid, but further work is recommended to explore the relationship between multimorbidity and lifestyle factors using standardised objective measures.

Neuroprotection by anaesthetics in rodent models of traumatic brain injury: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anaesthetic neuroprotection in the setting of traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains unproved and is based upon the results in preclinical experiments. Here, we sought to synthesise the results in rodent models of TBI, and to evaluate the effects of publication bias, experimental manipulation, and poor study quality on the effect estimates. METHODS: After a systematic review, we used pairwise meta-analysis to estimate the effect of anaesthetics, opioids, and sedative-hypnotics on neurological outcome, and network meta-analysis to compare their relative efficacy. We sought evidence of bias related to selective publication, experimental manipulation, and study quality. RESULTS: Sixteen studies, involving 32 comparisons, were included (546 animals). The treatment improved the neurological outcomes by 35%; 95% confidence interval: 26-44%; P<0.001. The statistical heterogeneity was small (12%), but the 95% prediction interval for the estimate was wide (15-56%). The statistical power was low: 61% (90% confidence interval: 22-86%). The small sample size in the studies was a serious shortcoming reducing the statistical heterogeneity and obscuring differences in outcome between drugs and between experimental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Anaesthetics do provide neuroprotection in rodent models of TBI. The effect-size estimates do not appear to be exaggerated by selective publication, experimental manipulation, or study design. The main shortcoming of the included studies were small sample sizes leading to low power and imprecision, which precluded the network meta-analysis from providing a meaningful ranking for efficacy amongst the drugs. Reliable preclinical investigations of neuroprotection by anaesthetics will require larger sample sizes.

The effect of exercise training on intrahepatic triglyceride and hepatic insulin sensitivity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This systematic review and meta-analysis determined the impact of structured exercise training, and the influence of associated weight loss, on intrahepatic triglyceride (IHTG) in individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It also examined its effect on hepatic insulin sensitivity in individuals with or at increased risk of NAFLD. Analyses were restricted to studies using magnetic resonance spectroscopy or liver biopsy for the measurement of IHTG and isotope-labelled glucose tracer for assessment of hepatic insulin sensitivity. Pooling data from 17 studies (373 exercising participants), exercise training for one to 24 weeks (mode: 12 weeks) elicits an absolute reduction in IHTG of 3.31% (95% CI: -4.41 to -2.22%). Exercise reduces IHTG independent of significant weight change (-2.16 [-2.87 to -1.44]%), but benefits are substantially greater when weight loss occurs (-4.87 [-6.64 to -3.11]%). Furthermore, meta-regression identified a positive association between percentage weight loss and absolute reduction in IHTG (ß = 0.99 [0.62 to 1.36], P < 0.001). Pooling of six studies (94 participants) suggests that exercise training also improves basal hepatic insulin sensitivity (mean change in hepatic insulin sensitivity index: 0.13 [0.05 to 0.21] mg m-2  min-1 per µU mL-1 ), but available evidence is limited, and the impact of exercise on insulin-stimulated hepatic insulin sensitivity remains unclear.

Electrohydrodynamic coalescence of droplets using an embedded potential flow model.

The coalescence, and subsequent satellite formation, of two inviscid droplets is studied numerically. The initial drops are taken to be of equal and different sizes, and simulations have been carried out with and without the presence of an electrical field. The main computational challenge is the tracking of a free surface that changes topology. Coupling level set and boundary integral methods with an embedded potential flow model, we seamlessly compute through these singular events. As a consequence, the various coalescence modes that appear depending upon the relative ratio of the parent droplets can be studied. Computations of first stage pinch-off, second stage pinch-off, and complete engulfment are analyzed and compared to recent numerical studies and laboratory experiments. Specifically, we study the evolution of bridge radii and the related scaling laws, the minimum drop radii evolution from coalescence to satellite pinch-off, satellite sizes, and the upward stretching of the near cylindrical protrusion at the droplet top. Clear evidence of partial coalescence self-similarity is presented for parent droplet ratios between 1.66 and 4. This has been possible due to the fact that computational initial conditions only depend upon the mother droplet size, in contrast with laboratory experiments where the difficulty in establishing the same initial physical configuration is well known. The presence of electric forces changes the coalescence patterns, and it is possible to control the satellite droplet size by tuning the electrical field intensity. All of the numerical results are in very good agreement with recent laboratory experiments for water droplet coalescence.

External national validation of the Leicester Self-Assessment score for Type 2 diabetes using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

AIMS: To validate the Leicester Self-Assessment score using a representative English dataset for detecting prevalent non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes (defined as HbA1c ≥6.0%) and for identifying those who may go on to develop Type 2 diabetes within 10 years. METHODS: Data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a nationally representative dataset of people aged ≥50 years. The area under the receiver-operator curve and performance metrics for the score at the recommended score threshold (≥16), were calculated for the outcomes of HbA1c ≥42 mmol/mol (6.0%) at baseline and self-reported Type 2 diabetes within 10 years in those aged 50-75 years at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 3203 individuals had a baseline HbA1c measurement, of whom 247 (7.7%) had an HbA1c concentration ≥42 mmol/mol (6.0%). The area under the receiver-operator curve was 69.4% (95% CI 66.0-72.9) for baseline HbA1c ≥42 mmol/mol. A total of 3550 individuals had diabetes status recorded at 10 years, of whom 324 (9.1%) were diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes within this time; the area under the receiver-operator curve for this outcome was 74.9% (95% CI 72.4-77.5). The score threshold of ≥16 had a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% CI 85.3-92.4) and a specificity of 42.3% (95% CI 40.5-44.0) for Type 2 diabetes within 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The Leicester Self-Assessment score is validated for use across England to identify people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes. Those with a high score are at high risk of developing diabetes in the future.

Type 2 diabetes and glucose intolerance in a population with intellectual disabilities: the STOP diabetes cross-sectional screening study.

BACKGROUND: Adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) may be at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, due to lifestyle factors, medications and other diagnosed conditions. Currently, there is lack of evidence on prevalence and prevention in this population. The aim of this study was to conduct a diabetes screening programme to determine prevalence of previously undiagnosed type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation in people with ID. METHODS: Screening was conducted in a variety of community settings in Leicestershire, UK. Adults with ID were invited via: general practices; the Leicestershire Learning Disability Register; ID psychiatric services; and some people directly contacted the research team due to publicity about the study. Screening involved collection of anthropometric, biomedical and questionnaire data. Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation were defined according to (venous) fasting plasma glucose or HbA1c, following current World Health Organisation criteria. RESULTS: Nine hundred thirty adults (29% of those approached) participated. Mean age was 43 years, 58% were male and 16% of South Asian ethnicity. Most participants were either overweight or obese (68%). Diabetes status was successfully assessed for 675 (73%) participants: Nine (1.3%, 95% confidence interval 0.6 to 2.5) were found to have undiagnosed type 2 diabetes, and 35 (5.2%, 95% confidence interval 3.6 to 7.1) had impaired glucose regulation. Key factors associated with abnormal glucose regulation included the following: non-white ethnicity and a first degree family history of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this large multi-ethnic cohort suggest a low prevalence of screen-detected (previously undiagnosed) type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation in adults with ID. However, the high levels of overweight and obesity we found emphasise the need for targeted lifestyle prevention strategies, which are specifically tailored for the needs of people with ID.

Cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic structured education intervention for the prevention of type 2 diabetes: economic evaluation of data from the Let's Prevent Diabetes cluster-randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: Prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (TD2M) is a priority for healthcare systems. We estimated the cost-effectiveness compared with standard care of a structured education programme (Let's Prevent) targeting lifestyle and behaviour change to prevent progression to T2DM in people with prediabetes. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 44 general practices in Leicestershire, England. PARTICIPANTS: 880 participants with prediabetes randomised to receive either standard care or a 6-hour group structured education programme with follow-up sessions in a primary care setting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost utility from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Quality of life and resource use measured from baseline and during the 36 months follow-up using the EuroQoL EQ-5D and 15D instruments and an economic questionnaire. Outcomes measured using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs calculated in 2012-2013 prices. RESULTS: After accounting for clustering and missing data, the intervention group was found to have a net gain of 0.046 (95% CI -0.0171 to 0.109) QALYs over 3 years, adjusted for baseline utility, at an additional cost of £168 (95% CI -395 to 732) per patient compared with the standard care group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is £3643/QALY with an 86% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The education programme had higher costs and higher quality of life compared with the standard care group. The Let's Prevent programme is very likely to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN80605705.

Incident Type 2 diabetes and the effect of early regression to normoglycaemia in a population with impaired glucose regulation.

AIMS: To report contemporary regression rates from impaired glucose regulation to normal glucose tolerance, identify modifiable factors associated with early regression, and establish whether it affects subsequent diabetes risk in a population-based cohort. METHODS: Participants with impaired glucose regulation (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance on a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test) at baseline in the UK-based ADDITION-Leicester study had annual Type 2 diabetes re-screens for 5 years or until diabetes diagnosis. Logistic regression models investigated modifiable risk factors for regression to normal glucose tolerance at 1 year (n = 817). Cox regression models estimated subsequent diabetes risk (n = 630). RESULTS: At 1 year, 54% of participants had regressed to normal glucose tolerance, and 6% had progressed to diabetes. Regression to normal glucose tolerance was associated with weight loss of 0.1-3% [adjusted odds ratio 1.81 (95% CI 1.08, 3.03) compared with maintaining or gaining weight] and a waist circumference reduction of > 3 cm [adjusted odds ratio 1.78 (95% CI 1.03, 3.06) compared with maintaining or increasing waist circumference]. Those with normal glucose tolerance at 1 year subsequently had lower diabetes risk than those who remained with impaired glucose regulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.19 (95% CI 0.10, 0.37)]. CONCLUSIONS: Early regression to normal glucose tolerance was associated with reduced diabetes incidence, and might be induced by small reductions in weight or waist circumference. If confirmed in experimental research, this could be a clear and achievable target for individuals diagnosed with impaired glucose regulation.

Walking Away from Type 2 diabetes: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate whether an established behavioural intervention, Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes, is effective at promoting and sustaining increased walking activity when delivered within primary care. METHODS: Cluster randomized controlled trial involving 10 general practices recruited from Leicestershire, UK, in 2009-2010. Eight hundred and eight (36% female) individuals with a high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, identified through a validated risk score, were included. Participants in five practices were randomized to Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes, a pragmatic 3-h group-based structured education programme incorporating pedometer use with annual follow-on refresher sessions. The primary outcome was accelerometer assessed ambulatory activity (steps/day) at 12 months. Longer term maintenance was assessed at 24 and 36 months. Results were analysed using generalized estimating equation models, accounting for clustering. RESULTS: Complete accelerometer data for the primary outcome were available for 571 (71%) participants. Increases in ambulatory activity of 411 steps/day [95% confidence interval (CI): 117, 704] and self-reported vigorous-intensity physical activity of 218 metabolic equivalent min/week (95% CI: 6, 425) at 12 months were observed in the intervention group compared with control; differences between groups were not sustained at 36 months. No differences between groups were observed for markers of cardiometabolic health. Replacing missing data with multiple imputation did not affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: A pragmatic low-resource group-based structured education programme with pedometer use resulted in modest increases in ambulatory activity compared with control conditions after 12 months when implemented within a primary care setting to those at high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus; however, the results were not maintained over 36 months.

A community faith centre based screening and educational intervention to reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes: A feasibility study.

AIMS: People of South Asian origin experience higher rates of diabetes and complications of diabetes compared to white Europeans. Therefore, it is important to identify those with undiagnosed diabetes and those at high risk of developing diabetes, in order to intervene with lifestyle intervention to reduce risk and prevent complications. We conducted a study to assess the feasibility of delivering a faith centre based pathway for screening and referral to group education for high risk individuals to increase screening uptake and reduce diabetes risk. METHODS: Opportunistic screening and early intervention strategy for people at risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease in local faith centres. The screening consisted of a diabetes risk assessment tool and a near patient test for HbA1c. Participants found to be at high risk of diabetes (HbA1c 6-6.4%/42-46mmol/mol) were offered a 'Walking Away from Diabetes' group educational intervention aimed at increasing exercise levels and reducing diabetes risk. RESULTS: 252 participants were screened during four screening events. 202 participants (80.2%) gave consent for their data to be included in the analysis. 72.4% of participants were found to have a high diabetes risk score. 32 participants (15.8%) had a HbA1c result (6-6.4%/42-46mmol/mol). Eight participants (4.0%) had a (HbA1c ⩾6.5%/⩾47mmol/mol). Of those eligible for the diabetes prevention education programme, 18 participants (56.3%) attended. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that screening followed by group education within faith centre settings is feasible and acceptable to participants. The strategies chosen were effective in achieving a high screening yield and high uptake of group education.

Assessment of response rates and yields for Two opportunistic Tools for Early detection of Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and Diabetes (ATTEND). A randomised controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: To assess the opportunistic use in primary care of a computer risk score versus a self-assessment risk score for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a randomised controlled trial in 11 primary care practices in the UK. 577 patients aged 40-75years with no current diagnosis of type 2 diabetes were recruited to a computer based risk score (Leicester Practice Computer Risk Score (LPCRS)) or a patient self-assessment score (Leicester Self-Assessment Score (LSAS)). RESULTS: The rate of self-referral blood tests was significantly higher for the LPCRS compared to the LSAS, 118.98 (95% CI: 102.85, 137.64) per 1000 high-risk patient years of follow-up compared to 92.14 (95% CI: 78.25, 108.49), p=0.022. Combined rate of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and those at risk of developing the disease (i.e. impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG)) was similar between the two arms, 15.12 (95% CI: 9.11, 25.08) per 1000 high-risk patient years for LPCRS compared to 14.72 (95% CI: 9.59, 22.57) for the LSAS, p=0.699. For the base case scenario the cost per new case of type 2 diabetes diagnosed was lower for the LPCRS compared to the LSAS, £168 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 76, 364), and £352 (95% CrI: 109, 1148), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to a self-assessment risk score, a computer based risk score resulted in greater attendance to an initial blood test and is potentially more cost-effective.

Rationale and design of the randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of liraglutide on cardiac function and structure in young adults with type 2 diabetes (the LYDIA study).

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in younger adults is growing. Compared to the late onset T2DM, it is well recognized that the disease tends to behave more aggressively in the younger age group with evidence of premature micro and macrovasular diseases and shorter life span. This increased mortality is largely attributed to cardiovascular complications. In a recent pilot study, young adults with T2DM were found to have significantly lower peak diastolic strain rate (PEDSR) on cardiac MRI (CMR), a forerunner of diabetic cardiomyopathy. Liraglutide, a glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue, is one of the new classes of glucose lowering therapies licensed to be used in management of T2DM. In randomised controlled trials, liraglutide improves glycaemic control by 1-1.5 % with an added benefit of weight loss of 2-3 kg. In addition, there is emerging evidence elucidating the cardioprotective effects of GLP-1 analogues independent of glycaemic control. In a small study, liraglutide has also been shown to improve cardiac function in patients with coronary ischaemia or congestive heart failure. METHODS AND AIMS: This is a prospective, randomised, open-label, blind end-point (PROBE) active-comparator trial. A total of 90 obese eligible participants with T2DM (18-50 years) will be randomised to either liraglutide 1.8 mg once daily or sitagliptin 100 mg once daily for 26 weeks. The primary aim is to assess whether liraglutide improves diastolic function compared to sitagliptin as measured by PEDSR using CMR. DISCUSSION: Although newer classes of GLP-1 analogues are made available in recent years, there are very few published studies demonstrating the beneficial effect of GLP-1 analogues on cardiovascular endpoints. In a recently published LEADER study, liraglutide has shown superiority to placebo in a population of type 2 diabetes with high risk of cardiovascular disease. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published studies establishing the effect of liraglutide on cardiac function in younger patients with T2DM on a larger scale. The LYDIA study will comprehensively describe changes in various parameters of cardiac structure and function in patients treated with liraglutide aiming to provide new evidence on effect of liraglutide on diastolic function in young obese people with T2DM. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02043054.

Guidelines for managing diabetes in Ramadan.

BACKGROUND: Globally there are approximately 90 million Muslims with diabetes of which approximately 400 000 reside within the UK. The holy month of Ramadan is a fundamental practice of this religion of which fasting from sun-rise to sun-set is an integral part. This poses many potential risks for those with diabetes who wish to observe Ramadan. METHODS: The evidence base for best clinical management of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes during Ramadan was reviewed. We reviewed current and previous recommendations for safe fasting during Ramadan. RESULTS: The risks associated with fasting in those with diabetes and preparing your patient for Ramadan are discussed. We have reviewed the evidence around diet-controlled diabetes and therapies including; metformin, acarbose, metglitinides, sulfonylureas, thiazolidinidiones, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4), sodium glucose co-transporter -2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide -1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists and insulin. CONCLUSION: Up to date guidelines for the management of treatment regimes are set-out for those with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes who wish to fast during Ramadan.