Simulation of Legionnaires' disease prospective spatiotemporal cluster detection, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) incidence in the USA has quadrupled since 2000. Health departments must detect LD outbreaks quickly to identify and remediate sources. We tested the performance of a system to prospectively detect simulated LD outbreaks in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA. We generated three simulated LD outbreaks based on published outbreaks. After verifying no significant clusters existed in surveillance data during 2014-2016, we embedded simulated outbreak-associated cases into 2016, assigning simulated residences and report dates. We mimicked daily analyses in 2016 using the prospective space-time permutation scan statistic to detect clusters of ⩽30 and ⩽180 days using 365-day and 730-day baseline periods, respectively. We used recurrence interval (RI) thresholds of ⩾20, ⩾100 and ⩾365 days to define significant signals. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values for daily analyses, separately for each embedded outbreak. Two large, simulated cooling tower-associated outbreaks were detected. As the RI threshold was increased, sensitivity and negative predictive value decreased, while positive predictive value and specificity increased. A small, simulated potable water-associated outbreak was not detected. Use of a RI threshold of ⩾100 days minimised time-to-detection while maximizing positive predictive value. Health departments should consider using this system to detect community-acquired LD outbreaks.

Sampling considerations for a potential Zika virus urosurvey in New York City.

In 2016, imported Zika virus (ZIKV) infections and the presence of a potentially competent mosquito vector (Aedes albopictus) implied that ZIKV transmission in New York City (NYC) was possible. The NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene developed contingency plans for a urosurvey to rule out ongoing local transmission as quickly as possible if a locally acquired case of confirmed ZIKV infection was suspected. We identified tools to (1) rapidly estimate the population living in any given 150-m radius (i.e. within the typical flight distance of an Aedes mosquito) and (2) calculate the sample size needed to test and rule out the further local transmission. As we expected near-zero ZIKV prevalence, methods relying on the normal approximation to the binomial distribution were inappropriate. Instead, we assumed a hypergeometric distribution, 10 missed cases at maximum, a urine assay sensitivity of 92.6% and 100% specificity. Three suspected example risk areas were evaluated with estimated population sizes of 479-4,453, corresponding to a minimum of 133-1244 urine samples. This planning exercise improved our capacity for ruling out local transmission of an emerging infection in a dense, urban environment where all residents in a suspected risk area cannot be feasibly sampled.

Estimating the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in New York City, 2015.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is the most common blood-borne infection in the USA. Estimating prevalence is critical for monitoring diagnosis, treatment, and cure and for allocating resources. Surveillance data reported to the New York City (NYC) Health Department, 2000-2015, were used to estimate HCV prevalence in NYC in 2015. The numbers who died, out-migrated or whose last RNA test was negative were removed from the count of people reported with HCV. A simulation model was used to remove estimates of people whose infection spontaneously cleared or was cured and to add an estimate of people unaware of infection. The surveillance-based HCV prevalence in NYC in 2015 overall was 1.4% (95% certainty level (CL) 1.2-1.6%; n ≈ 116 000, 95% CL ≈99 000-135 000) and among adults aged ⩾20 years was 1.8% (95% CL 1.5-2.0%, n ≈ 115 000, 95% CL ≈99 000-134 000), lower than the 2010 estimate among adults aged ⩾20 years of 2.4% (n ≈ 147 000). Contributors to the decrease in HCV prevalence from 2010 to 2015 include both the availability of highly effective treatment and also deaths among an ageing population. The 2015 estimate can be used to set NYC-specific HCV screening and treatment targets and monitor progress towards HCV elimination.

Outbreak of non-tuberculous mycobacteria skin or soft tissue infections associated with handling fish - New York City, 2013-2014.

Mycobacterium marinum, a bacterium found in freshwater and saltwater, can infect persons with direct exposure to fish or aquariums. During December 2013, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene learned of four suspected or confirmed M. marinum skin or soft tissue infections (SSTIs) among persons who purchased whole fish from Chinese markets. Ninety-eight case-patients with non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) SSTIs were identified with onset June 2013-March 2014. Of these, 77 (79%) were female. The median age was 62 years (range 30-91). Whole genome sequencing of clinical isolates revealed two main clusters and marked genetic diversity. Environmental samples from distributors yielded NTM though not M. marinum. We compared 56 case-patients with 185 control subjects who shopped in Chinese markets, frequency-matched by age group and sex. Risk factors for infection included skin injury to the finger or hand (odds ratio [OR]: 15·5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6·9-37·3), hand injury while preparing fish or seafood (OR 8·3; 95% CI 3·8-19·1), and purchasing tilapia (OR 3·6; 95% CI 1·1-13·9) or whiting (OR 2·7; 95% CI 1·1-6·6). A definitive environmental outbreak source was not identified.

Using winter 2009-2010 to assess the accuracy of methods which estimate influenza-related morbidity and mortality.

We used the winter of 2009-2010, which had minimal influenza circulation due to the earlier 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, to test the accuracy of ecological trend methods used to estimate influenza-related deaths and hospitalizations. We aggregated weekly counts of person-time, all-cause deaths, and hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/circulatory conditions from seven healthcare systems. We predicted the incidence of the outcomes during the winter of 2009-2010 using three different methods: a cyclic (Serfling) regression model, a cyclic regression model with viral circulation data (virological regression), and an autoregressive, integrated moving average model with viral circulation data (ARIMAX). We compared predicted non-influenza incidence with actual winter incidence. All three models generally displayed high accuracy, with prediction errors for death ranging from -5% to -2%. For hospitalizations, errors ranged from -10% to -2% for pneumonia/influenza and from -3% to 0% for respiratory/circulatory. The Serfling and virological models consistently outperformed the ARIMAX model. The three methods tested could predict incidence of non-influenza deaths and hospitalizations during a winter with negligible influenza circulation. However, meaningful mis-estimation of the burden of influenza can still result with outcomes for which the contribution of influenza is low, such as all-cause mortality.

Recurrent multistate outbreak of Salmonella Newport associated with tomatoes from contaminated fields, 2005.

Salmonella Newport causes more than an estimated 100,000 infections annually in the United States. In 2002, tomatoes grown and packed on the eastern shore of Virginia contaminated with a pan-susceptible S. Newport strain caused illness in 510 patients in 26 states. In July-November 2005, the same strain caused illness in at least 72 patients in 16 states. We conducted a case-control study during the 2005 outbreak, enrolling 29 cases and 140 matched neighbourhood controls. Infection was associated with eating tomatoes (matched odds ratio 9.7, 95% confidence interval 3.3-34.9). Tomatoes were traced back to the eastern shore of Virginia, where the outbreak strain was isolated from pond water used to irrigate tomato fields. Two multistate outbreaks caused by one rare strain, and identification of that strain in irrigation ponds 2 years apart, suggest persistent contamination of tomato fields. Further efforts are needed to prevent produce contamination on farms and throughout the food supply chain.

Equine dental advances.

The reintroduction and development of safe motorized instruments, the increased availability of continuing education, and the understanding and implementation of appropriate procedures allow practitioners to provide better dental care. Veterinarians realize that sedation, analgesia, a full-mouth speculum, and proper instrumentation are necessary to provide these services. Continued instrument design, future research, and new treatment and prophylactic protocols should have a positive impact on the future of equine dental health. New and rediscovered procedures for equilibrating equine occlusion are allowing horses to masticate more efficiently, carry a bit more comfortably, and experience improved performance. The horse, the horse owner, and the veterinary profession all benefit from providing complete equine dental care.