Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden.

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

Association Between Vitamin D Insufficiency and Impaired Bone Density Among Adolescents With Perinatally Acquired HIV Infection.

Background: Stunting and pubertal delay are common among children growing up with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are associated with bone and muscle impairments. We investigated factors associated with bone density and muscle function in adolescents living with HIV (ALWH). Methods: The VITALITY trial (PACTR202009897660297) investigated whether vitamin D and calcium supplementation improves musculoskeletal health among ALWH. A total of 842 ALWH aged 11-19 years, established on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥6 months, were enrolled from HIV clinics in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Clinical history and examination were undertaken, and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25[OH]D3) was measured. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measured total-body-less-head bone mineral density adjusted for height (TBLH-BMDHT), and lumbar spine bone mineral apparent density (LS-BMAD) z scores. The association between a priori-defined covariates and musculoskeletal outcomes were investigated using baseline enrollment data and multivariable logistic regression. Results: TBLH-BMDHT  z scores were impaired (mean, -1.42 for male and -0.63 female participants), as were LS-BMAD z scores (mean -1.15 for male and -0.47 for female participants). In bivariate analysis, early pubertal stage, less physical activity, and older age at ART initiation were associated with lower TBLH-BMDHT  z scores. Younger age, early pubertal stage, and low socioeconomic status were associated with lower LS-BMAD z scores. Grip-strength-for-height and jump-power-for-height z scores were associated with lower TBLH-BMDHT and LS-BMAD z scores. Low dietary vitamin D and calcium were associated with lower adjusted TBLH-BMDHT  z scores. Lower 25(OH)D3 was associated with lower adjusted TBLH-BMDHT and LS-BMAD z scores. Conclusions: Deficits in bone density are common in ALWH. Vitamin D and calcium supplementation and promotion of exercise may improve musculoskeletal health among perinatally infected ALWH.

Prevalence, factors and quality of life associated with frailty and pre-frailty in middle-aged and older adults living with HIV in Zimbabwe: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated associations between HIV, frailty and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: This cross-sectional study recruited men and women aged ≥40 years in Zimbabwe. A researcher collected clinical and HRQoL data, and performed physical assessments and HIV testing. Frailty was defined using five criteria: unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, low gait speed, low handgrip strength. The presence of three or more criteria defined frailty, one to two pre-frailty, and zero non-frail. Data analysis used adjusted regression modelling. RESULTS: Of 1034 adults (mean ± SD, 62.0 ± 14.0 years), 21.6% (n = 223) were living with HIV: 93.3% knew their status, of whom 96.2% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 89.7% of these had a viral load <50 copies/mL. Mean age at HIV diagnosis was 44.6 ± 10.4 years (only 8.1% were ≥70 years), people had been living with HIV for 9.8 ± 5.0 years and had been on ART for 9.4 ± 5.2 years. Overall, HIV was not associated with frailty: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-2.33] for frailty versus non-frailty. However, each 5 years lived with HIV was associated with twice the odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.03-4.13), independent of age and ART duration. Furthermore, each 5 years of ART use was associated with 60% lower odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.19-0.78), independent of age and years lived with HIV. Older age, minimal education and poverty were associated with frailty. Frailty was associated with lower HRQoL in people both with and without HIV. CONCLUSION: Reduced survival and good viral suppression may explain the lack of association between HIV and frailty. Early ART initiation could reduce future risk of frailty.

Prevalence of HIV-associated osteoporosis and fracture risk in mid-life women: a cross-sectional study in Zimbabwe.

Antiretroviral therapy roll-out has dramatically reduced HIV related-mortality; more women are living to reach menopause. Menopausal estrogen loss causes bone loss, as does HIV and some of its treatments. However, data describing HIV's impact on osteoporosis prevalence and fracture risk are scarce in southern Africa. A cross-sectional study of women aged 40-60 years (49% women living with HIV (WLH)) was conducted in Harare, Zimbabwe. Menopause, fracture and HIV history were collected, and anthropometry and bone mineral density (BMD, by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA)) measured, and FRAX® 10-year fracture probabilities quantified. The FRAX® probability of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) included HIV as a risk factor for secondary osteoporosis. Linear and Poisson regression determined the relationships between clinical risk factors and both femoral neck (FN) BMD and the 10-year FRAX® probability of MOF respectively. The 393 participants had mean(SD) age of 49.6(SD = 5.8) years and mean(SD) BMI 29.1(6) kg/m2. 95% of WLH were ART established (85% TDF) and 81% had a viral load <50 copies/mL. A BMD T-Score ≤ -2.5 was more common in WLH than those without, at both FN and lumbar spine (LS) (FN 22[11.4%] vs 5[2.5%], LS 40[20.8%] vs 9[4.5%]; respectively). Prior fracture was more prevalent in WLH: any fracture type (27[14%] vs. 14[7%]); MOF (14[7.3%] vs. 5[2.5%]). WLH had a higher 10-year MOF probability [median 1.2%; IQR: 0.9-1.8] compared with those without HIV [1.0%; IQR: 0.9-1.5] (P<.001), although probabilities were low. Older age, low weight, and HIV infection were strongly associated with lower FN BMD. Higher probability of MOF was associated with older age, HIV infection, parental hip fracture and prior fracture, though adjustment attenuated the association with HIV. No woman reported anti-osteoporosis medication use. While osteoporosis and previous fractures were common and untreated in this relatively young population, particularly in WLH, the FRAX® predicted 10-year MOF risk was low. Clinical risk factors considered in fracture risk prediction tools in Zimbabwe may need contextual modification.

Improved access to treatment for HIV now means women living with HIV are able to live well into older adulthood; however, this puts them at risk of age-related diseases such as osteoporosis. HIV and some of its treatments are known to cause bone loss, as does menopause, but studies on osteoporosis and fracture risk are scarce in southern Africa, where most people with HIV live. In this study in Zimbabwe, we found women with HIV were more likely to have osteoporosis and to have had a fracture, and a higher risk of having a major osteoporotic fracture over the next 10 years, compared with women without HIV (calculated using FRAX®: a fracture risk prediction tool), although the risk was surprisingly low. Older age, being underweight, and having HIV were strongly related to lower bone density at hip (an important site for fractures). Higher risk of future fracture was associated with older age, previous fracture, having HIV, and having a parent who had a hip fracture. Despite these findings, no woman had ever been offered any anti-osteoporosis medication. Our findings suggest that osteoporosis is under-recognized and undertreated in Zimbabwe, where clinical fracture risk prediction tools need to be modified for the specific context.

Association of bradykinin receptor 2 (BDKRB2) variants with physical performance and muscle mass: Findings from the LACE sarcopenia trial.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding genetic contributors to sarcopenia (age-related loss of muscle strength and mass) is key to finding effective therapies. Variants of the bradykinin receptor 2 (BDKRB2) have been linked to athletic and muscle performance. The rs1799722-9 and rs5810761 T alleles have been shown to be overrepresented in endurance athletes, possibly due to increased transcriptional rates of the receptor. These variants have been rarely studied in older people or people with sarcopenia. METHODS: We performed a post hoc sub-study of the Leucine and ACE (LACE) inhibitor trial, which enrolled 145 participants aged ≥70 years with low grip strength and low gait speed. Participants' blood samples were genotyped for rs179972 using TaqMan and rs5810761 by amplification through Hotstar Taq. Genotypes were compared with outcomes of physical performance and body composition measures. RESULTS: Data from 136 individuals were included in the analysis. For rs1799722 the genotype frequency (TT: 17, CC: 48, CT: 71) remained in Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE p = 0.248). There was no difference between the genotypes for six-Minute Walk Distance (6MWD) or Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Men with the TT genotype had a significantly greater 6MWD than other genotypes (TT 400m vs CT 310m vs CC 314m, p = 0.027), and greater leg muscle mass (TT 17.59kg vs CT 15.04kg vs CC 15.65kg, p = 0.007). For rs5810761, the genotype frequency (-9-9: 31, +9+9: 43, -9+9: 60) remained in HWE (p = 0.269). The +9+9 genotype was associated with a significant change in SPPB score at 12 months (-9-9 0 vs -9+9 0 vs +9+9-1, p<0.001), suggesting an improvement. In men, the -9-9 genotype was associated with lower arm fat (-9-9 2.39kg vs -9+9 2.72kg vs +9+9 2.76kg, p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: In men, the rs1799722 TT genotype was associated with longer 6MWD and greater leg muscle mass, while the rs5810761 -9-9 genotype was associated with lower arm fat mass.

Following hip fracture, hospital organizational factors associated with prescription of anti-osteoporosis medication on discharge, to address imminent refracture risk: a record-linkage study.

Patients who sustain a hip fracture are known to be at imminent refracture risk. Their complex multidisciplinary rehabilitation needs to include falls prevention and anti-osteoporosis medication (AOM) to prevent such fractures. This study aimed to determine which hospital-level organizational factors predict prescription of post-hip fracture AOM and refracture risk. A cohort of 178 757 patients aged ≥60 yr who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales (2016-2019) was examined and followed for 1 yr. Patient-level hospital admission datasets from 172 hospitals, the National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality data were linked to 71 metrics extracted from 18 hospital-level organizational reports. Multilevel models determined organizational factors, independent of patient case-mix, associated with (1) AOM prescription and (2) refracture (by ICD10 coding). Patients were mean (SD) 82.7 (8.6) yr old, 71% female, with 18% admitted from care homes. Overall, 101 735 (57%) were prescribed AOM during admission, while 50 354 (28%) died during 1-yr follow-up, 12 240 (7%) refractured. Twelve organizational factors were associated with AOM prescription, for example, orthogeriatrician-led care compared to traditional care models (odds ratio [OR] 4.65 [95% CI, 2.25-9.59]); AOM was 9% (95% CI, 6%-13%) more likely to be prescribed in hospitals providing routine bone health assessment to all patients. Refracture occurred at median 126 d (IQR 59-234). Eight organizational factors were associated with refracture risk; hospitals providing orthogeriatrician assessment to all patients within 72 h of admission had an 18% (95% CI, 2%-31%) lower refracture risk, weekend physiotherapy provision had an 8% (95% CI, 3%-14%) lower risk, and where occupational therapists attended clinical governance meetings, a 7% (95% CI, 2%-12%) lower risk. Delays initiating post-discharge community rehabilitation were associated with a 15% (95% CI, 3%-29%) greater refracture risk. These novel, national findings highlight the importance of orthogeriatrician, physiotherapist, and occupational therapist involvement in secondary fracture prevention post hip fracture; notably, fracture risk reductions were seen within 12 mo of hip fracture.

Patients who have broken (fractured) a hip are at risk of having another fracture soon after. They have complex needs to avoid more fractures, which include being prescribed bone-strengthening medicines and taking measures to prevent falls. This study looked at which of the measurements, that describe how well a hospital is organized, are associated with whether bone-strengthening medicine is prescribed and the chance of having another fracture. We used data from 178 757 patients aged over 60 yr who had a hip fracture at 172 English and Welsh hospitals, linked to their hospital records, and other datasets that describe hospital services. Overall, 57% of patients were prescribed bone-strengthening medicines, and 7% went on to have another fracture. Bone-strengthening medicines were more likely to be prescribed in hospitals where patient care was led by a consultant specializing in the care of older people with fractures (called orthogeriatricians) and in hospitals which routinely checked patients' bone health. Patients attending hospitals that provided orthogeriatrician assessment to all patients within 72 h of being admitted, physiotherapy services at the weekend, or where occupational therapists attended meetings aimed at improving hospital services had a lower chance of having another fracture.

The impact of HIV infection on skeletal maturity in peripubertal children in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: HIV infection and its treatment compromises skeletal development (growth and maturation). Skeletal maturity is assessed as bone age (BA) on hand and wrist radiographs. BA younger than chronological age (CA) indicates delayed development. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine differences between BA and CA (i.e., skeletal maturity deviation [SMD]), and risk factors associated with SMD in peripubertal children with and without HIV established on antiretroviral therapy (ART) including use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). METHODS: Children with HIV taking ART for at least two years and a comparison group of HIV-negative children, aged 8-16 years and frequency-matched by age and sex, were recruited from HIV clinics and local schools in the same catchment area, in Harare, Zimbabwe. BA was assessed from non-dominant hand-wrist radiographs using the Tanner Whitehouse 3 method. Negative SMD values correspond to delayed development, i.e., BA younger than CA. Multivariable linear regression models determined factors associated with SMD overall, and in children with HIV. RESULTS: In total, 534 participants (54% males) were included; by design CA was similar in males and females, whether living with or without HIV. Mean (SD) SMD was more negative in CWH than in HIV-negative children in both males [-1.4(1.4) vs. -0.4(1.1) years] and females [-1.1(1.3) vs. -0.0(1.2) years]. HIV infection and weight-for-age Z-score<-2 were associated with more negative SMD in both males and females after adjusting for socio-economic status, orphanhood, pubertal stage, and calcium intake. Age at ART initiation was associated with SMD in both males and females with those starting ART later more delayed: starting ART aged 4-8 years 1.14 (-1.84, -0.43), or over 8 years 1.47 (-2.30, -0.65) (p-value for trend < 0.001). Similar non-significant trends were seen in males. TDF exposure TDF exposure whether < 4years or ≥ 4 years was not associated with delayed development. CONCLUSION: Perinatally-acquired HIV infection and being underweight were independently associated with delayed skeletal maturation in both males and females. Starting ART later was independently associated with skeletal maturation delay in CWH. Given the known effects of delayed development on later health, it is important to find interventions to ensure healthy weight gain through early years and in CWH to initiate ART as early as possible.

Interdisciplinary perspectives on multimorbidity in Africa: Developing an expanded conceptual model.

Multimorbidity is an emerging challenge for health systems globally. It is commonly defined as the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions in one person, but its meaning remains a lively area of academic debate, and the utility of the concept beyond high-income settings is uncertain. This article presents the findings from an interdisciplinary research initiative that drew together 60 academic and applied partners working in 10 African countries to answer the questions: how useful is the concept of multimorbidity within Africa? Can the concept be adapted to context to optimise its transformative potentials? During a three-day concept-building workshop, we investigated how the definition of multimorbidity was understood across diverse disciplinary and regional perspectives, evaluated the utility and limitations of existing concepts and definitions, and considered how to build a more context-sensitive, cross-cutting description of multimorbidity. This iterative process was guided by the principles of grounded theory and involved focus- and whole-group discussions during the workshop, thematic coding of workshop discussions, and further post-workshop development and refinement. Three thematic domains emerged from workshop discussions: the current focus of multimorbidity on constituent diseases; the potential for revised concepts to centre the priorities, needs, and social context of people living with multimorbidity (PLWMM); and the need for revised concepts to respond to varied conceptual priorities amongst stakeholders. These themes fed into the development of an expanded conceptual model that centres the catastrophic impacts multimorbidity can have for PLWMM, families and support structures, service providers, and health systems.

Update: Vitamin D3 and calcium carbonate supplementation for adolescents with HIV to reduce musculoskeletal morbidity and immunopathology (VITALITY trial): study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Of the 2 million children living with HIV globally, 90% live in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite antiretroviral therapy, longstanding HIV infection is associated with several chronic complications in children including growth failure, particularly stunting and delayed puberty. Vitamin D deficiency, which is highly prevalent among children living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, has further adverse impact on bone health. This trial aims to establish whether supplementation with vitamin D3 and calcium carbonate improves musculoskeletal health among peripubertal children living with HIV. This paper is an update to an already existing protocol that was previously published in Trials in 2022 and details changes in the trial outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct an individually randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of weekly high-dose vitamin D3 (20,000 IU) plus daily calcium carbonate (500 mg) supplementation for 48 weeks. Eight hundred and forty children living with HIV aged 11-19 years taking ART for ≥ 6 months will be enrolled and followed up for 96 weeks. The primary outcome is DXA-measured total body less-head bone mineral density Z-score (TBLH-BMD) at 48 weeks and is an update to the previous primary outcome total body less-head bone mineral content adjusted for lean mass (TBLH-BMCLBM) Z-score. The primary outcome was updated to address the substantial differences in distributions of TBLH-BMCLBM Z-score between the two sites as a result of software differences of the DXA machines. Secondary outcomes are DXA-measured TBLH-BMD Z-score adjusted for height at 48 weeks a new secondary outcome, lumbar spine bone mineral apparent density Z-score, number of respiratory infections, lean muscle mass and grip-strength at 48 and 96 weeks, and TBLH-BMD Z-score at 96 weeks. Sub-studies will investigate the effect of the intervention on vitamin D3 pathway metabolites and markers of bone turnover, intestinal microbiota, and innate and acquired immune function. DISCUSSION: This is the largest trial to date of vitamin D supplementation in children living with HIV. Intervening to address deficits in bone accrual through childhood is critical for optimising adolescent and early adult bone health, and prevention of later adult osteoporotic fractures. Trial results will draw attention to the need to screen for and treat long-term comorbidities in children living with HIV in resource-limited settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR20200989766029. Registered on September 3, 2020. URL of trial registry record: https://pactr.samrc.ac.za TRIAL STATUS: Participant follow-up completed; data analysis ongoing.

Model of multidisciplinary teamwork in hip fracture care: a qualitative interview study.

OBJECTIVES: Hip fractures are common injuries in older age with high mortality requiring multidisciplinary clinical care. Despite guidance, there is considerable variation in hip fracture services and patient outcomes; furthermore, little is known about how successful multidisciplinary working can be enabled. This study aimed to characterise professionals' views about the core components of multidisciplinary teamwork in hip fracture care. DESIGN: The study comprised qualitative interviews with healthcare professionals delivering hip fracture care. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and analysed abductively: material was coded inductively and grouped into higher level concepts informed by theories and frameworks relating to teamwork. SETTING: Four hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 40 healthcare professionals including orthopaedic surgeons, orthogeriatricians, physiotherapists and service managers. RESULTS: Results identified four components of successful multidisciplinary teamwork: (1) defined roles and responsibilities, (2) information transfer processes, (3) shared goals and (4) collaborative leadership. These were underpinned by a single concept: shared responsibility. Defined roles and responsibilities were promoted through formal care pathways, reinforced through induction and training with clear job plans outlining tasks. Information transfer processes facilitated timely information exchange to appropriate individuals. Well-defined common purpose was hindered by complex interdisciplinary professional relationships, particularly between orthogeriatric and orthopaedic staff, and encouraged through multidisciplinary team meetings and training. Clinical service leads were integral to bridging interdisciplinary boundaries. Mutual trust and respect were based on recognition of the value of different professional groups. Teamwork depended on formal clinical leads with facilitative and motivational roles, and on hospital leadership that created an environment supporting collaboration. Shared responsibility for patients was encouraged by joint orthopaedic and orthogeriatric care models. Staff shared responsibility by assisting colleagues when needed. CONCLUSIONS: Shared responsibility across the multidisciplinary team is fundamental to delivery of hip fracture care. Findings will inform development of clinical practice recommendations and training to build teamworking competencies.

Prevalence of chronic conditions and multimorbidity among healthcare workers in Zimbabwe: Results from a screening intervention.

The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in southern Africa is expanding and is superimposed on high HIV prevalence. Healthcare workers are a scarce resource; yet are vital to health systems. There are very limited studies on the burden of chronic conditions among healthcare workers in Africa, and none exploring multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions). We describe the epidemiology of infectious (HIV) and non-communicable chronic conditions, and multimorbidity, among Zimbabwean healthcare workers. Healthcare workers (≥18 years) in eight Zimbabwean provinces were invited to a voluntary, cross-sectional health-check, including HIV, diabetes, hypertension and mental health screening. Statistical analyses described the prevalence and risk factors for multimorbidity (two or more of HIV, diabetes, hypertension or common mental disorder) and each condition. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Among 6598 healthcare workers (July 2020-July 2022) participating in the health-check, median age was 37 years (interquartile range 29-44), 79% were women and 10% knew they were living with HIV. Half had at least one chronic condition: 11% were living with HIV, 36% had elevated blood pressure, 12% had elevated HbA1c and 11% had symptoms of common mental disorder. The overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 15% (95% CI: 13-17%); 39% (95% CI: 36-43%) among people aged 50 and older. Whilst most HIV was diagnosed and treated, other chronic conditions were usually undiagnosed or uncontrolled. Limiting our definition of multimorbidity to two or more screened conditions sought to reduce bias due to access to diagnosis, however, may have led to a lower reported prevalence than that found using a wider definition. Half of healthcare workers screened were living with a chronic condition; one in seven had multimorbidity. Other than HIV, most conditions were undiagnosed or untreated. Multisectoral action to implement contextually relevant, chronic disease services in Africa is urgently needed. Specific attention on health workers is required to protect and retain this critical workforce.

Evaluation of a comprehensive health check offered to frontline health workers in Zimbabwe.

Health workers are essential for a functioning healthcare system, and their own health is often not addressed. During the COVID-19 pandemic health workers were at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection whilst coping with increased healthcare demand. Here we report the development, implementation, and uptake of an integrated health check combining SARS-CoV-2 testing with screening for other communicable and non-communicable diseases for health workers in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Health checks were offered to health workers in public and private health facilities from July 2020 to June 2022. Data on the number of health workers accessing the service and yield of screening was collected. Workshops and in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the perceptions and experiences of clients and service providers. 6598 health workers across 48 health facilities accessed the service. Among those reached, 5215 (79%) were women, the median age was 37 (IQR: 29-44) years and the largest proportion were nurses (n = 2092, 32%). 149 (2.3%) healthcare workers tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Uptake of screening services was almost 100% for all screened conditions except HIV. The most common conditions detected through screening were elevated blood pressure (n = 1249; 19%), elevated HbA1c (n = 428; 7.7%) and common mental disorder (n = 645; 9.8%). Process evaluation showed high acceptability of the service. Key enablers for health workers accessing the service included free and comprehensive service provision, and availability of reliable point-of-care screening methods. Implementation of a comprehensive health check for health workers was feasible, acceptable, and effective, even during a pandemic. Conventional occupational health programmes focus on infectious diseases. In a society where even health workers cannot afford health care, free comprehensive occupational health services may address unmet needs in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for chronic non-communicable conditions.

Perinatal HIV infection is associated with deficits in muscle function in children and adolescents in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how muscle strength, power, mass, and density (i.e. quality) differ between children living with HIV (CWH) and those uninfected, and whether antiretroviral therapy (ART) regime is associated with muscle quality. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study in Harare, Zimbabwe. METHODS: The study recruited CWH aged 8-16 years, taking ART for at least 2 years, from HIV clinics, and HIV-uninfected children from local schools. Muscle outcomes comprised grip strength measured by hand-held Jamar dynamometer, lower limb power measured by standing long-jump distance, lean mass measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and muscle density (reflecting intramuscular fat) by peripheral quantitative computed tomography. Linear regression calculated adjusted mean differences (aMD) by HIV status. RESULTS: Overall, 303 CWH and 306 without HIV, had mean (SD) age 12.5 (2.5) years, BMI 17.5 (2.8), with 50% girls. Height and fat mass were lower in CWH, mean differences (SE) 7.4 (1.1) cm and 2.7 (0.4)kgs, respectively. Male CWH had lower grip strength [aMD 2.5 (1.1-3.9) kg, P  < 0.001], long-jump distance [7.1 (1.8-12.5) cm, P  = 0.006], muscle density [0.58 (0.12-1.05) mg/cm 3 , P  = 0.018, but not lean mass 0.06 (-1.08 to 1.21) kg, P  = 0.891) versus boys without HIV; differences were consistent but smaller in girls. Mediation analysis suggested the negative effect of HIV on jumping power in boys was partially mediated by muscle density ( P  = 0.032). CWH taking tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) had lower muscle density [0.56 (0.00-1.13)mg/cm 3 , P  = 0.049] independent of fat mass, than CWH on other ART. CONCLUSION: Perinatally acquired HIV is associated, particularly in male individuals, with reduced upper and lower limb muscle function, not mass. Intra-muscular fat (poorer muscle quality) partially explained reductions in lower limb function. TDF is a novel risk factor for impaired muscle quality.

Growth Profiles of Children and Adolescents Living with and without Perinatal HIV Infection in Southern Africa: A Secondary Analysis of Cohort Data.

Impaired linear growth and slower pubertal growth can be associated with perinatal HIV infection. We characterised growth relative to population norms, among the full adolescent period in southern Africa to better understand processes leading to morbidity in adulthood. We conducted a secondary analysis of 945 adolescents aged 8-20 years from urban Malawi and Zimbabwe; we included children with HIV (CWH), an uninfected comparison group from a cohort study, and CWH with co-morbid chronic lung disease (CLD) from a randomised controlled trial. We used latent class analysis of anthropometric Z-scores generated from British 1990 reference equations at two annual time-points, to identify growth trajectory profiles and used multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with growth profiles. Growth faltering (one or more of weight-for-age, height-for-age, or BMI-for-age Z-scores < -2) occurred in 38% (116/303) of CWH from the cohort study, 62% (209/336) of CWH with CLD, and 14% (44/306) of HIV-uninfected participants. We identified seven different growth profiles, defined, relatively, as (1) average growth, (2) tall not thin, (3) short not thin, (4) stunted not thin, (5) thin not stunted, (6) thin and stunted and (7) very thin and stunted. Females in profile 3 exhibited the highest body fat percentage, which increased over 1 year. Males at older age and CWH especially those with CLD were more likely to fall into growth profiles 4-7. Improvements in height-for-age Z-scores were observed in profiles 6-7 over 1 year. Interventions to target those with the worst growth faltering and longer-term follow-up to assess the impact on adult health are warranted.

Activin type I receptor polymorphisms and body composition in older individuals with sarcopenia-Analyses from the LACE randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Ageing is associated with changes in body composition including an overall reduction in muscle mass and a proportionate increase in fat mass. Sarcopenia is characterised by losses in both muscle mass and strength. Body composition and muscle strength are at least in part genetically determined, consequently polymorphisms in pathways important in muscle biology (e.g., the activin/myostatin signalling pathway) are hypothesised to contribute to the development of sarcopenia. METHODS: We compared regional body composition measured by DXA with genotypes for two polymorphisms (rs10783486, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.26 and rs2854464, MAF = 0.26) in the activin 1B receptor (ACVR1B) determined by PCR in a cross-sectional analysis of DNA from 110 older individuals with sarcopenia from the LACE trial. RESULTS: Neither muscle mass nor strength showed any significant associations with either genotype in this cohort. Initial analysis of rs10783486 showed that males with the AA/AG genotype were taller than GG males (174±7cm vs 170±5cm, p = 0.023) and had higher arm fat mass, (median higher by 15%, p = 0.008), and leg fat mass (median higher by 14%, p = 0.042). After correcting for height, arm fat mass remained significantly higher (median higher by 4% padj = 0.024). No associations (adjusted or unadjusted) were seen in females. Similar analysis of the rs2854464 allele showed a similar pattern with the presence of the minor allele (GG/AG) being associated with greater height (GG/AG = 174±7 cm vs AA = 170 ±5cm, p = 0.017) and greater arm fat mass (median higher by 16%, p = 0.023). Again, the difference in arm fat remained after correction for height. No similar associations were seen in females analysed alone. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that polymorphic variation in the ACVR1B locus could be associated with body composition in older males. The activin/myostatin pathway might offer a novel potential target to prevent fat accumulation in older individuals.

ACE I/D genotype associates with strength in sarcopenic men but not with response to ACE inhibitor therapy in older adults with sarcopenia: Results from the LACE trial.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin II (AII), has been suggested to promote muscle loss. Reducing AII synthesis, by inhibiting angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) activity has been proposed as a method to inhibit muscle loss. The LACE clinical trial was designed to determine whether ACE inhibition would reduce further muscle loss in individuals with sarcopenia but suffered from low recruitment and returned a negative result. Polymorphic variation in the ACE promoter (I/D alleles) has been associated with differences in ACE activity and muscle physiology in a range of clinical conditions. This aim of this analysis was to determine whether I/D polymorphic variation is associated with muscle mass, strength, in sarcopenia or contributed to the lack of response to treatment in the LACE study. METHODS: Sarcopenic individuals were recruited into a 2x2 factorial multicentre double-blind study of the effects of perindopril and/or leucine versus placebo on physical performance and muscle mass. DNA extracted from blood samples (n = 130 72 women and 58 men) was genotyped by PCR for the ACE I/D polymorphism. Genotypes were then compared with body composition measured by DXA, hand grip and quadriceps strength before and after 12 months' treatment with leucine and/or perindopril in a cross-sectional analysis of the influence of genotype on these variables. RESULTS: Allele frequencies for the normal UK population were extracted from 13 previous studies (I = 0.473, D = 0.527). In the LACE cohort the D allele was over-represented (I = 0.412, D = 0.588, p = 0.046). This over-representation was present in men (I = 0.353, D = 0.647, p = 0.010) but not women (I = 0.458, D = 0.532, p = 0.708). In men but not women, individuals with the I allele had greater leg strength (II/ID = 18.00 kg (14.50, 21.60) vs DD = 13.20 kg (10.50, 15.90), p = 0.028). Over the 12 months individuals with the DD genotype increased in quadriceps strength but those with the II or ID genotype did not. Perindopril did not increase muscle strength or mass in any polymorphism group relative to placebo. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that although ACE genotype was not associated with response to ACE inhibitor therapy in the LACE trial population, sarcopenic men with the ACE DD genotype may be weaker than those with the ACE I/D or II genotype.

Adjusting expected deaths for mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic: a model based counterfactual approach at the level of individuals.

BACKGROUND: Near-real time surveillance of excess mortality has been an essential tool during the COVID-19 pandemic. It remains critical for monitoring mortality as the pandemic wanes, to detect fluctuations in the death rate associated both with the longer-term impact of the pandemic (e.g. infection, containment measures and reduced service provision by the health and other systems) and the responses that followed (e.g. curtailment of containment measures, vaccination and the response of health and other systems to backlogs). Following the relaxing of social distancing regimes and reduction in the availability of testing, across many countries, it becomes critical to measure the impact of COVID-19 infection. However, prolonged periods of mortality in excess of the expected across entire populations has raised doubts over the validity of using unadjusted historic estimates of mortality to calculate the expected numbers of deaths that form the baseline for computing numbers of excess deaths because many individuals died earlier than they would otherwise have done: i.e. their mortality was displaced earlier in time to occur during the pandemic rather than when historic rates predicted. This is also often termed "harvesting" in the literature. METHODS: We present a novel Cox-regression-based methodology using time-dependent covariates to estimate the profile of the increased risk of death across time in individuals who contracted COVID-19 among a population of hip fracture patients in England (N = 98,365). We use these hazards to simulate a distribution of survival times, in the presence of a COVID-19 positive test, and then calculate survival times based on hazard rates without a positive test and use the difference between the medians of these distributions to estimate the number of days a death has been displaced. This methodology is applied at the individual level, rather than the population level to provide a better understanding of the impact of a positive COVID-19 test on the mortality of groups with different vulnerabilities conferred by sociodemographic and health characteristics. Finally, we apply the mortality displacement estimates to adjust estimates of excess mortality using a "ball and urn" model. RESULTS: Among the exemplar population we present an end-to-end application of our methodology to estimate the extent of mortality displacement. A greater proportion of older, male and frailer individuals were subject to significant displacement while the magnitude of displacement was higher in younger females and in individuals with lower frailty: groups who, in the absence of COVID-19, should have had a substantial life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that calculating the expected number of deaths following the first wave of the pandemic in England based solely on historical trends results in an overestimate, and excess mortality will therefore be underestimated. Our findings, using this exemplar dataset are conditional on having experienced a hip fracture, which is not generalisable to the general population. Fractures that impede mobility in the weeks that follow the accident/surgery considerably shorten life expectancy and are in themselves markers of significant frailty. It is therefore important to apply these novel methods to the general population, among whom we anticipate strong patterns in mortality displacement - both in its length and prevalence - by age, sex, frailty and types of comorbidities. This counterfactual method may also be used to investigate a wider range of disruptive population health events. This has important implications for public health monitoring and the interpretation of public health data in England and globally.

Call to action: a five nations consensus on the use of intravenous zoledronate after hip fracture.

Currently in the UK and Ireland, after a hip fracture most patients do not receive bone protection medication to reduce the risk of refracture. Yet randomised controlled trial data specifically examining patients with hip fracture have shown that intravenous zoledronate reduces refracture risk by a third. Despite this evidence, use of intravenous zoledronate is highly variable following a hip fracture; many hospitals are providing this treatment, whilst most are currently not. A range of clinical uncertainties, doubts over the evidence base and practical concerns are cited as reasons. This paper discusses these concerns and provides guidance from expert consensus, aiming to assist orthogeriatricians, pharmacists and health services managers establish local protocols to deliver this highly clinically and cost-effective treatment to patients before they leave hospital, in order to reduce costly re-fractures in this frail population.

Patients' recovery of mobility and return to original residence after hip fracture are associated with multiple modifiable components of hospital service organisation: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are devastating injuries causing disability, dependence, and institutionalisation, yet hospital care is highly variable. This study aimed to determine hospital organisational factors associated with recovery of mobility and change in patient residence after hip fracture. METHODS: A cohort of patients aged 60 + years in England and Wales, who sustained a hip fracture from 2016 to 2019 was examined. Patient-level Hospital Episodes Statistics, National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality records were linked to 101 factors derived from 18 hospital-level organisational metrics. After adjustment for patient case-mix, multilevel models were used to identify organisational factors associated with patient residence at discharge, and mobility and residence at 120 days after hip fracture. RESULTS: Across 172 hospitals, 165,350 patients survived to discharge, of whom 163,230 (99%) had post-hospital discharge destination recorded. 18,323 (11%) died within 120 days. Among 147,027 survivors, 58,344 (40%) across 143 hospitals had their residence recorded, and 56,959 (39%) across 140 hospitals had their mobility recorded, at 120 days. Nineteen organisational factors independently predicted residence on hospital discharge e.g., return to original residence was 31% (95% confidence interval, CI:17-43%) more likely if the anaesthetic lead for hip fracture had time allocated in their job plan, and 8-13% more likely if hip fracture service clinical governance meetings were attended by an orthopaedic surgeon, physiotherapist or anaesthetist. Seven organisational factors independently predicted residence at 120 days. Patients returning to their pre-fracture residence was 26% (95%CI:4-42%) more likely if hospitals had a dedicated hip fracture ward, and 20% (95%CI:8-30%) more likely if treatment plans were proactively discussed with patients and families on admission. Seventeen organisational factors predicted mobility at 120 days. More patients re-attained their pre-fracture mobility in hospitals where (i) care involved an orthogeriatrician (15% [95%CI:1-28%] improvement), (ii) general anaesthesia was usually accompanied by a nerve block (7% [95%CI:1-12%], and (iii) bedside haemoglobin testing was routine in theatre recovery (13% [95%CI:6-20%]). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors are associated with patient outcomes up to 120 days after a hip fracture, these factors if causal should be targeted by service improvement initiatives to reduce variability, improve hospital hip fracture care, and maximise patient independence.