Multiple-model based simulation of urban atmospheric methane concentration and the attributions to its seasonal variations: A case study in Hangzhou megacity, China.

Cities are treated as global methane (CH4) emission hotspots and the monitoring of atmospheric CH4 concentration in cities is necessary to evaluate anthropogenic CH4 emissions. However, the continuous and in-situ observation sites within cities are still sparsely distributed in the largest CH4 emitter as of China, and although obvious seasonal variations of atmospheric CH4 concentrations have been observed in cities worldwide, questions regarding the drivers for their temporal variations still have not been well addressed. Therefore, to quantify the contributions to seasonal variations of atmospheric CH4 concentrations, year-round CH4 concentration observations from 1st December 2020 to 30th November 2021 were conducted in Hangzhou megacity, China, and three models were chosen to simulate urban atmospheric CH4 concentration and partition its drivers including machine learning based Random Forest (RF) model, atmospheric transport processes based numerical model (WRF-STILT), and regression analysis based Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The findings are as follows: (1) the atmospheric CH4 concentration showed obvious seasonal variations and were different with previous observations in other cities, the seasonality were 5.8 ppb, 21.1 ppb, and 50.1 ppb between spring-winter, summer-winter and autumn-winter, respectively, where the CH4 background contributed by -8.1 ppb, -44.6 ppb, and -1.0 ppb, respectively, and the CH4 enhancements contributed by 13.9 ppb, 65.7 ppb, and 51.1 ppb. (2) The RF model showed the highest accuracy in simulating CH4 concentrations, followed by MLR model and WRF-STILT model. (3) We further partition contributions from different factors, results showed the largest contribution was from temperature-induced increase in microbial process based CH4 emissions including waste treatment and wetland, which ranged from 38.1 to 76.3 ppb when comparing different seasons with winter. The second largest contribution was from seasonal boundary layer height (BLH) variations, which ranged from -13.4 to -6.3 ppb. And the temperature induced seasonal CH4 emission and enhancement variations were overwhelming BLH changes and other meteorological parameters.

Hydrologic Connectivity Regulates Riverine N2O Sources and Dynamics.

Indirect nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from streams and rivers are a poorly constrained term in the global N2O budget. Current models of riverine N2O emissions place a strong focus on denitrification in groundwater and riverine environments as a dominant source of riverine N2O, but do not explicitly consider direct N2O input from terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combine N2O isotope measurements and spatial stream network modeling to show that terrestrial-aquatic interactions, driven by changing hydrologic connectivity, control the sources and dynamics of riverine N2O in a mesoscale river network within the U.S. Corn Belt. We find that N2O produced from nitrification constituted a substantial fraction (i.e., >30%) of riverine N2O across the entire river network. The delivery of soil-produced N2O to streams was identified as a key mechanism for the high nitrification contribution and potentially accounted for more than 40% of the total riverine emission. This revealed large terrestrial N2O input implies an important climate-N2O feedback mechanism that may enhance riverine N2O emissions under a wetter and warmer climate. Inadequate representation of hydrologic connectivity in observations and modeling of riverine N2O emissions may result in significant underestimations.

Anthropogenic CO2 emission reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nanchang City, China.

China is the largest CO2 emitting country on Earth. During the COVID-19 pandemic, China implemented strict government control measures on both outdoor activity and industrial production. These control measures, therefore, were expected to significantly reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, large discrepancies still exist in the estimated anthropogenic CO2 emission reduction rate caused by COVID-19 restrictions, with values ranging from 10% to 40% among different approaches. Here, we selected Nanchang city, located in eastern China, to examine the impact of COVID-19 on CO2 emissions. Continuous atmospheric CO2 and ground-level CO observations from January 1st to April 30th, 2019 to 2021 were used with the WRF-STILT atmospheric transport model and a priori emissions. And a multiplicative scaling factor and Bayesian inversion method were applied to constrain anthropogenic CO2 emissions before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We found a 37.1-40.2% emission reduction when compared to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with the same period in 2019. Carbon dioxide emissions from the power industry and manufacturing industry decreased by 54.5% and 18.9% during the pandemic period. The power industry accounted for 73.9% of total CO2 reductions during COVID-19. Further, emissions in 2021 were 14.3-14.9% larger than in 2019, indicating that economic activity quickly recovered to pre-pandemic conditions.

Biases in open-path carbon dioxide flux measurements: Roles of instrument surface heat exchange and analyzer temperature sensitivity.

Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange provide the most direct assessment of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Measurement biases for open-path (OP) CO2 concentration and flux measurements have been reported for over 30 years, but their origin and appropriate correction approach remain unresolved. Here, we quantify the impacts of OP biases on carbon and radiative forcing budgets for a sub-boreal wetland. Comparison with a reference closed-path (CP) system indicates that a systematic OP flux bias (0.54 µmol m-2 s-1) persists for all seasons leading to a 110% overestimate of the ecosystem CO2 sink (cumulative error of 78 gC m-2). Two potential OP bias sources are considered: Sensor-path heat exchange (SPHE) and analyzer temperature sensitivity. We examined potential OP correction approaches including: i) Fast temperature measurements within the measurement path and sensor surfaces; ii) Previously published parameterizations; and iii) Optimization algorithms. The measurements revealed year-round average temperature and heat flux gradients of 2.9 °C and 16 W m-2 between the bottom sensor surfaces and atmosphere, indicating SPHE-induced OP bias. However, measured SPHE correlated poorly with the observed differences between OP and CP CO2 fluxes. While previously proposed nominally universal corrections for SPHE reduced the cumulative OP bias, they led to either systematic under-correction (by 38.1 gC m-2) or to systematic over-correction (by 17-37 gC m-2). The resulting budget errors exceeded CP random uncertainty and change the sign of the overall carbon and radiative forcing budgets. Analysis of OP calibration residuals as a function of temperature revealed a sensitivity of 5 µmol m-3 K-1. This temperature sensitivity causes CO2 calibration errors proportional to sample air fluctuations that can offset the observed growing season flux bias by 50%. Consequently, we call for a new OP correction framework that characterizes SPHE- and temperature-induced CO2 measurement errors.

Aircraft-based inversions quantify the importance of wetlands and livestock for Upper Midwest methane emissions.

We apply airborne measurements across three seasons (summer, winter and spring 2017-2018) in a multi-inversion framework to quantify methane emissions from the US Corn Belt and Upper Midwest, a key agricultural and wetland source region. Combing our seasonal results with prior fall values we find that wetlands are the largest regional methane source (32 %, 20 [16-23] Gg/d), while livestock (enteric/manure; 25 %, 15 [14-17] Gg/d) are the largest anthropogenic source. Natural gas/petroleum, waste/landfills, and coal mines collectively make up the remainder. Optimized fluxes improve model agreement with independent datasets within and beyond the study timeframe. Inversions reveal coherent and seasonally dependent spatial errors in the WetCHARTs ensemble mean wetland emissions, with an underestimate for the Prairie Pothole region but an overestimate for Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Wetland extent and emission temperature dependence have the largest influence on prediction accuracy; better representation of coupled soil temperature-hydrology effects is therefore needed. Our optimized regional livestock emissions agree well with the Gridded EPA estimates during spring (to within 7 %) but are ∼25 % higher during summer and winter. Spatial analysis further shows good top-down and bottom-up agreement for beef facilities (with mainly enteric emissions) but larger (∼30 %) seasonal discrepancies for dairies and hog farms (with >40 % manure emissions). Findings thus support bottom-up enteric emission estimates but suggest errors for manure; we propose that the latter reflects inadequate treatment of management factors including field application. Overall, our results confirm the importance of intensive animal agriculture for regional methane emissions, implying substantial mitigation opportunities through improved management.

Climate Sensitivity of Peatland Methane Emissions Mediated by Seasonal Hydrologic Dynamics.

Peatlands are among the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4) worldwide. Peatland emissions are projected to increase under climate change, as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation accelerate microbial metabolic pathways favorable for CH4 production. However, how these changing environmental factors will impact peatland emissions over the long term remains unknown. Here, we investigate a novel data set spanning an exceptionally long 11 years to analyze the influence of soil temperature and water table elevation on peatland CH4 emissions. We show that higher water tables dampen the springtime increases in CH4 emissions as well as their subsequent decreases during late summer to fall. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in northern peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH4 emissions, even if temperature remains unchanged. Therefore, advancing hydrological understanding in peatland watersheds will be crucial for improving predictions of CH4 emissions.

Top-Down Constraints on Methane Point Source Emissions From Animal Agriculture and Waste Based on New Airborne Measurements in the U.S. Upper Midwest.

Agriculture and waste are thought to account for half or more of the U.S. anthropogenic methane source. However, current bottom-up inventories contain inherent uncertainties from extrapolating limited in situ measurements to larger scales. Here, we employ new airborne methane measurements over the U.S. Corn Belt and Upper Midwest, among the most intensive agricultural regions in the world, to quantify emissions from an array of key agriculture and waste point sources. Nine of the largest concentrated animal feeding operations in the region and two sugar processing plants were measured, with multiple revisits during summer (August 2017), winter (January 2018), and spring (May-June 2018). We compare the top-down fluxes with state-of-science bottom-up estimates informed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology and site-level animal population and management practices. Top-down point source emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for beef concentrated animal feeding operations but moderately lower for dairies (by 37% on average) and significantly lower for sugar plants (by 80% on average). Swine facility results are more variable. The assumed bottom-up seasonality for manure methane emissions is not apparent in the aircraft measurements, which may be due to on-site management factors that are difficult to capture accurately in national-scale inventories. If not properly accounted for, such seasonal disparities could lead to source misattribution in top-down assessments of methane fluxes.

Error characterization of methane fluxes and budgets derived from a long-term comparison of open- and closed-path eddy covariance systems.

Wetlands represent the dominant natural source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Thus, substantial effort has been spent examining the CH4 budgets of global wetlands via continuous ecosystem-scale measurements using the eddy covariance (EC) technique. Robust error characterization for such measurements, however, remains a major challenge. Here, we quantify systematic, random and gap-filling errors and the resulting uncertainty in CH4 fluxes using a 3.5 year time series of simultaneous open- and closed path CH4 flux measurements over a sub-boreal wetland. After correcting for high- and low frequency flux attenuation, the magnitude of systematic frequency response errors were negligible relative to other uncertainties. Based on three different random flux error estimations, we found that errors of the CH4 flux measurement systems were smaller in magnitude than errors associated with the turbulent transport and flux footprint heterogeneity. Errors on individual half-hourly CH4 fluxes were typically 6%-41%, but not normally distributed (leptokurtic), and thus need to be appropriately characterized when fluxes are compared to chamber-derived or modeled CH4 fluxes. Integrated annual fluxes were only moderately sensitive to gap-filling, based on an evaluation of 4 different methods. Calculated budgets agreed on average to within 7% (≤ 1.5 g - CH4 m-2 yr-1). Marginal distribution sampling using open source code was among the best-performing of all the evaluated gap-filling approaches and it is therefore recommended given its transparency and reproducibility. Overall, estimates of annual CH4 emissions for both EC systems were in excellent agreement (within 0.6 g - CH4 m-2 yr-1) and averaged 18 g - CH4 m-2 yr-1. Total uncertainties on the annual fluxes were larger than the uncertainty of the flux measurement systems and estimated between 7-17%. Identifying trends and differences among sites or site years requires that the observed variability exceeds these uncertainties.

Source Partitioning of Methane Emissions and its Seasonality in the U.S. Midwest.

The methane (CH4) budget and its source partitioning are poorly constrained in the Midwestern United States. We used tall tower (185 m) aerodynamic flux measurements and atmospheric scale factor Bayesian inversions to constrain the monthly budget and to partition the total budget into natural (e.g., wetlands) and anthropogenic (e.g., livestock, waste, and natural gas) sources for the period June 2016 to September 2017. Aerodynamic flux observations indicated that the landscape was a CH4 source with a mean annual CH4 flux of +13.7 ± 0.34 nmol m-2 s-1 and was rarely a net sink. The scale factor Bayesian inversion analyses revealed a mean annual source of +12.3 ± 2.1 nmol m-2 s-1. Flux partitioning revealed that the anthropogenic source (7.8 ± 1.6 Tg CH4 yr-1) was 1.5 times greater than the bottom-up gridded United States Environmental Protection Agency inventory, in which livestock and oil/gas sources were underestimated by 1.8-fold and 1.3-fold, respectively. Wetland emissions (4.0 ± 1.2 Tg CH4 yr-1) were the second largest source, accounting for 34% of the total budget. The temporal variability of total CH4 emissions was dominated by wetlands with peak emissions occurring in August. In contrast, emissions from oil/gas and other anthropogenic sources showed relatively weak seasonality.