Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change.

Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2-11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses.

Therapeutic hypothermia after cardiac arrest - implementation in UK intensive care units.

A telephone survey was carried out to determine how many United Kingdom intensive care units were using therapeutic hypothermia as part of their management of unconscious patients admitted after cardiac arrest. All 247 intensive care units listed in the 2008 Directory of Critical Care Services were contacted to determine how many units were using hypothermia as part of their post-cardiac arrest management and how it was implemented. We obtained information from 243 (98.4%) of the intensive care units. At the time of the study, 208 (85.6%) were using hypothermia as part of post-cardiac arrest management. There has been a steady increase annually in the number of units performing therapeutic cooling from 2003 to date, with the majority of units starting in 2007 or 2008. The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation guidelines, which recommend the use of therapeutic hypothermia for comatose patients following successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest, have taken at least 4-5 years to achieve widespread implementation in the United Kingdom.