Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model. RESULTS: Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort. CONCLUSION: The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.

Prophylactic Phenylephrine Infusions to Reduce Severe Spinal Anesthesia Hypotension During Cesarean Delivery in a Resource-Constrained Environment.

Phenylephrine infusions are considered as standard management for obstetric spinal hypotension, but there remains reluctance to implement them in resource-limited contexts. This prospective, alternating intervention study of patients undergoing elective or urgent cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia compared a vasopressor bolus strategy to fixed-rate, low-dose prophylactic phenylephrine infusion with supplemental boluses. The primary outcome was the incidence of severe hypotension (mean arterial pressure <70% baseline or systolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg). Fewer patients receiving prophylactic phenylephrine infusions had severe hypotension (47.4% [n = 120/253] vs 62.1% [n = 157/253], P = .001, estimated relative risk 0.84, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-1.02), with no significant difference in the rate of hypertension (15% [n = 39/253] vs 11% [n = 27/253], P = .11, estimated relative risk 1.39, confidence interval 0.87-2.20). Guidelines for resource-constrained settings should consider a fixed, low-dose phenylephrine infusion in combination with rescue vasopressor bolus therapy.