Potential decline in the distribution and food provisioning services of the mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern Africa.

The mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) is an edible insect distributed across southern Africa. As a culturally important source of food, the mopane worm provides nutrition, livelihoods and improves wellbeing for rural communities across its range. However, this is strong evidence that insect populations are declining worldwide, and climate change is likely to cause many insect species to shift in their distributions. For these reasons, we aimed to model how the ecosystem service benefits of the mopane worm are likely to change in the coming decades. We modelled the distribution of the mopane worm under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Moreover, given that the mopane worm shows strong interactions with other species, particularly trees, we incorporated biotic interactions in our models using a Bayesian network. Our models project significant contraction across the species' range, with up to 70% decline in habitat by the 2080s. Botswana and Zimbabwe are predicted to be the most severely impacted countries, with almost all habitat in Botswana and Zimbabwe modelled to be lost by the 2080s. Decline of mopane worm habitat would likely have negative implications for the health of people in rural communities due to loss of an important source of protein as well as household income provided by their harvest. Biogeographic shifts therefore have potential to exacerbate food insecurity, socio-economic inequalities, and gender imbalance (women are the main harvesters), with cascading effects that most negatively impact poor rural communities dependent on natural resources.

Limited evidence for quantitative contribution of rare and endangered species to agricultural production.

Biodiversity underpins ecosystem functions that provide benefits to people, yet the role of rare and endangered species (RES) in supporting ecosystem services is unclear. Thus, it remains controversial whether arguments for conservation that focus on ecosystem services align with the protection of RES. We designed a systematic review protocol to critically assess the evidence for quantitative contributions of RES to terrestrial agricultural production, which is a key driver of biodiversity change and, simultaneously, could suffer from the loss of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Our review search criteria required that studies: 1) provide information on RES, 2) focus on an ecosystem service relevant for agriculture; and 3) include a quantitative measure of agricultural production. Surprisingly, we found only four studies that fulfilled these criteria, which was insufficient to perform a meta-analysis of results. Thus, we highlight here the gap in quantitative research, discuss the implications of this knowledge gap for the conservation of RES, and suggest future research directions. We conclude that further quantitative research is urgently needed to better inform conservation and agricultural policies, including research that focuses specifically on RES, incorporates more ecosystem services, and covers a wider range of climatic and socioeconomic contexts.

Climate change, land cover change, and overharvesting threaten a widely used medicinal plant in South Africa.

Medicinal plants contribute substantially to the well-being of people in large parts of the world, providing traditional medicine and supporting livelihoods from trading plant parts, which is especially significant for women in low-income communities. However, the availability of wild medicinal plants is increasingly threatened; for example, the Natal Lily (Clivia miniata), which is one of the most widely traded plants in informal medicine markets in South Africa, lost over 40% of individuals over the last 90 years. Understanding the species' response to individual and multiple pressures is essential for prioritizing and planning conservation actions. To gain this understanding, we simulated the future range and abundance of C. miniata by coupling Species Distribution Models with a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS). We contrasted scenarios of climate change (RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5), land cover change (intensification vs. expansion), and harvesting (only juveniles vs. all life-stages). All our scenarios pointed to continuing declines in suitable habitat and abundance by the 2050s. When acting independently, climate change, land cover change, and harvesting each reduced the projected abundance substantially, with land cover change causing the most pronounced declines. Harvesting individuals from all life stages affected the projected metapopulation size more negatively than extracting only juveniles. When the three pressures acted together, declines of suitable habitat and abundance accelerated but uncertainties were too large to identify whether pressures acted synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. Our results suggest that conservation should prioritize the protection of suitable habitat and ensure sustainable harvesting to support a viable metapopulation under realistic levels of climate change. Inadequate management of C. miniata populations in the wild will likely have negative consequences for the well-being of people relying on this ecosystem service, and we expect there may be comparable consequences relating to other medicinal plants in different parts of the world.

Diversity and Diversification: Ecosystem Services Derived From Underutilized Crops and Their Co-benefits for Sustainable Agricultural Landscapes and Resilient Food Systems in Africa.

There are growing calls to adopt more sustainable forms of agriculture that balance the need to increase production with environmental, human health, and wellbeing concerns. Part of this conversation has included a debate on promoting and mainstreaming neglected and underutilized crop species (NUS) because they represent a more ecologically friendly type of agriculture. We conducted a systematic review to determine the ecosystem services derived from NUS and assess their potential to promote functional ecological diversity, food and nutritional security, and transition to more equitable, inclusive, sustainable and resilient agricultural landscapes and food systems in Africa. Our literature search yielded 35 articles for further analysis. The review showed that NUS provide various provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting ecosystem services and several environmental and health co-benefits, dietary diversity, income, sustainable livelihood outcomes, and economic empowerment, especially for women. Importantly, NUS address the three pillars of sustainable development-ecological, social, and economic. Thus, NUS may provide a sustainable, fit-for-purpose transformative ecosystem-based adaptation solution for Africa to transition to more sustainable, healthy, equitable, and resilient agricultural landscapes and food systems.