Challenges of rabies surveillance in Madagascar based on a mixed method survey amongst veterinary health officers.

Introduction: In Madagascar, rabies is endemic and a notifiable disease. The objective of this mixed study was to understand the challenges faced by the Veterinary Health Officers (VHOs) in the current rabies surveillance system in Madagascar. Methods: A survey was conducted from mid-April to the end of July 2021 during which all officially-listed VHOs (N = 150) were contacted by phone at least twice. Participants, representative of the 22 regions of Madagascar, were interviewed by phone based on a semi-structured questionnaire on (1) their knowledge of rabies epidemiology in their area of activities, (2) the occurrence of human and animal rabies and the species affected in the region where they work, (3) the factors that might influence rabies surveillance depending on (a) their activities and area of operation, (b) the socio-cultural aspects of local communities, and (c) the general organization of animal rabies surveillance. Results: The majority (80/90) of VHOs declared having been informed of at least one suspected or confirmed case of human and/or animal rabies in their area of activity during their work as VHOs: at least once a month for 11 of them, at least once a year for 40 and with undetermined frequency for 29. Several obstacles hinder the surveillance of rabies resulting in under-reporting. The lack of funds to access suspect animals, collect, pack and ship samples in compliance with biosecurity measures and the cold chain, was mentioned as a major obstacle to surveillance. The second barrier is socio-cultural: in many large coastal regions, dogs are taboo and VHOs fear rejection by the community if they treat dogs. Discussion and conclusion: While the general population requires information on the rabies situation in Madagascar and on how to proceed in the event of a bite, veterinarians and decision-makers need to be fully aware of an evidence-based approach to rabies surveillance, prevention and control. Communication between the human and animal health sectors should be improved. Politicians need to be persuaded of the importance of funding to eliminate rabies in Madagascar. The adoption, in early 2023, of a national strategic plan for rabies control is a first step in this direction.

Mixed methods to evaluate knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) towards rabies in central and remote communities of Moramanga district, Madagascar.

Control of dog-mediated rabies relies on raising awareness, access to post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and mass dog vaccination. To assess rabies awareness in Moramanga district, Madagascar, where rabies is endemic, two complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches were carried out in 2018. In the quantitative approach, a standardized questionnaire was administered to 334 randomized participants living in 170 households located less than 5 km from the anti-rabies treatment center (ARTC) located in Moramanga city (thereafter called the central area), and in 164 households located more than 15 km away from the ARTC in two rural communes (thereafter called the remote area). Logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors influencing knowledge and practice scores. The qualitative approach consisted in semi-structured interviews conducted with 28 bite victims who had consulted the ARTC, three owners of biting dogs, three ARTC staff and two local authorities. Overall, 15.6% (52/334) of households owned at least one dog. The dog-to-human ratio was 1:17.6. The central area had a significantly higher dog bite incidence (0.53 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.31-0.85) compared to the remote area (0.22 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.09-0.43) (p = 0.03). The care pathway following a bite depended on wound severity, how the dog was perceived and its owner's willingness to cover costs. Rabies vaccination coverage in dogs in the remote area was extremely low (2.4%). Respondents knew that vaccination prevented animal rabies but owners considered that their own dogs were harmless and cited access and cost of vaccine as main barriers. Most respondents were not aware of the existence of the ARTC (85.3%), did not know the importance of timely access to PEP (92.2%) or that biting dogs should be isolated (89.5%) and monitored. Good knowledge scores were significantly associated with having a higher socio-economic status (OR = 2.08, CI = 1.33-3.26) and living in central area (OR = 1.91, CI = 1.22-3.00). Good practice scores were significantly associated with living in central area (OR = 4.78, CI = 2.98-7.77) and being aware of the ARTC's existence (OR = 2.29, CI = 1.14-4.80). In Madagascar, knowledge on rabies was disparate with important gaps on PEP and animal management. Awareness campaigns should inform communities (i) on the importance of seeking PEP as soon as possible after an exposure, whatever the severity of the wound and the type of biting dog who caused it, and (ii) on the existence and location of ARTCs where free-of-charge PEP is available. They should also encourage owners to isolate and monitor the health of biting dogs. Above all, awareness and dog vaccination campaigns should be designed so as to reach the more vulnerable remote rural populations as knowledge, good practices and vaccination coverage were lower in these areas. They should also target households with a lower socio-economic status. If awareness campaigns are likely to succeed in improving access to ARTCs in Madagascar, their impact on prompting dog owners to vaccinate their own dogs seems more uncertain given the financial and access barriers. Therefore, to reach the 70% dog vaccination coverage goal targeted in rabies elimination programs, awareness campaigns must be combined with free-of-charge mass dog vaccination.

Rabies surveillance in Madagascar from 2011 to 2021: can we reach the target?

Rabies is endemic in Madagascar and a neglected disease. The aim of this study was to summarize human and animal rabies surveillance activities in Madagascar from 2011 to 2021. Samples from terrestrial mammals and humans were tested for rabies virus infection using direct fluorescent antibody, RT-PCR and virus isolation by the National Reference Laboratory (NRL) for rabies at the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar. Among 964 animal and 47 human samples tested, 66.7 and 70.2% were positive, respectively. The NRL received these suspect rabies samples from 48 of 114 districts of Madagascar. Most of them were submitted from the district of the capital city Antananarivo (26.3%) and mainly from its region Analamanga (68.9%). Animal samples were mainly from dogs (83%), cats (9.5%) and cattle (5.8%). Pigs, lemurs, goats accounted for less than 1%. During the 11 years of surveillance, 48 human skin and/or brain biopsy samples were received from 20 districts, mainly from Antananarivo and its surroundings (N = 13), Toamasina and its surroundings (N = 8) and Moramanga (N = 6). The high positivity rate for all species and the non-homogeneous spatial distribution of samples suggests substantial underreporting of rabies cases. There is a clear need to better understand the reasons for underreporting and prioritize rabies surveillance, prevention and control in Madagascar, with improvements in budget, education and infrastructure. A joint animal and human health rabies control program including vaccination of at least 70% of the dog population, is needed to achieve the goal of eliminating dog-transmitted human rabies by 2030 from Madagascar.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) populations on Reunion Island (Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic diseases, two insect-borne orbiviral diseases of ruminants. Hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the vectors of bluetongue (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHDV) viruses. In a previous study, statistical models based on environmental and meteorological data were developed for the five Culicoides species present in the island to provide a better understanding of their ecology and predict their presence and abundance. The purpose of this study was to couple these statistical models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce dynamic maps of the distribution of Culicoides throughout the island. METHODS: Based on meteorological data from ground weather stations and satellite-derived environmental data, the abundance of each of the five Culicoides species was estimated for the 2214 husbandry locations on the island for the period ranging from February 2016 to June 2018. A large-scale Culicoides sampling campaign including 100 farms was carried out in March 2018 to validate the model. RESULTS: According to the model predictions, no husbandry location was free of Culicoides throughout the study period. The five Culicoides species were present on average in 57.0% of the husbandry locations for C. bolitinos Meiswinkel, 40.7% for C. enderleini Cornet & Brunhes, 26.5% for C. grahamii Austen, 87.1% for C. imicola Kieffer and 91.8% for C. kibatiensis Goetghebuer. The models also showed high seasonal variations in their distribution. During the validation process, predictions were acceptable for C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. kibatiensis, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 15.4%, 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively. The NRMSE was 27.4% for C. grahamii. For C. imicola, the NRMSE was acceptable (11.9%) considering all husbandry locations except in two specific areas, the Cirque de Salazie-an inner mountainous part of the island-and the sea edge, where the model overestimated its abundance. CONCLUSIONS: Our model provides, for the first time to our knowledge, an operational tool to better understand and predict the distribution of Culicoides in Reunion Island. As it predicts a wide spatial distribution of the five Culicoides species throughout the year and taking into consideration their vector competence, our results suggest that BTV and EHDV can circulate continuously on the island. As further actions, our model could be coupled with an epidemiological model of BTV and EHDV transmission to improve risk assessment of Culicoides-borne diseases on the island.

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: The current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is highly effective at preventing human rabies deaths, however access to PEP is limited in many rabies endemic countries. The 2018 decision by Gavi to add human rabies vaccine to its investment portfolio should expand PEP availability and reduce rabies deaths. We explore how geographic access to PEP impacts the rabies burden in Madagascar and the potential benefits of improved provisioning. METHODOLOGY & PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use spatially resolved data on numbers of bite patients seeking PEP across Madagascar and estimates of travel times to the closest clinic providing PEP (N = 31) in a Bayesian regression framework to estimate how geographic access predicts reported bite incidence. We find that travel times strongly predict reported bite incidence across the country. Using resulting estimates in an adapted decision tree, we extrapolate rabies deaths and reporting and find that geographic access to PEP shapes burden sub-nationally. We estimate 960 human rabies deaths annually (95% Prediction Intervals (PI): 790-1120), with PEP averting an additional 800 deaths (95% PI: 640-970) each year. Under these assumptions, we find that expanding PEP to one clinic per district (83 additional clinics) could reduce deaths by 19%, but even with all major primary clinics provisioning PEP (1733 additional clinics), we still expect substantial rabies mortality. Our quantitative estimates are most sensitive to assumptions of underlying rabies exposure incidence, but qualitative patterns of the impacts of travel times and expanded PEP access are robust. CONCLUSIONS & SIGNIFICANCE: PEP is effective at preventing rabies deaths, and in the absence of strong surveillance, targeting underserved populations may be the most equitable way to provision PEP. Given the potential for countries to use Gavi funding to expand access to PEP in the coming years, this framework could be used as a first step to guide expansion and improve targeting of interventions in similar endemic settings where PEP access is geographically restricted and baseline data on rabies risk is lacking. While better PEP access should save many lives, improved outreach, surveillance, and dog vaccination will be necessary, and if rolled out with Gavi investment, could catalyze progress towards achieving zero rabies deaths.

Enabling animal rabies diagnostic in low-access areas: Sensitivity and specificity of a molecular diagnostic test from cerebral tissue dried on filter paper.

Rabies is a lethal zoonotic encephalomyelitis that causes an estimated 59,000 human deaths yearly worldwide. Although developing countries of Asia and Africa bear the heaviest burden, surveillance and disease detection in these countries is often hampered by the absence of local laboratories able to diagnose rabies and/or the difficulties of sample shipment from low-access areas to national reference laboratories. Filter papers offer a convenient cost-effective alternative for the sampling, shipment, and storage of biological materials for the diagnosis of many pathogens including rabies virus, yet the properties of diagnostic tests using this support have not been evaluated thoroughly. Sensitivity and specificity of molecular diagnosis of rabies infection using a reverse transcription followed by a hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-hn-PCR) either directly on brain tissue or using brain tissue dried on filter paper were assessed on 113 suspected field animal samples in comparison to the direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT) recommended by the World Health Organization as one of the reference tests for rabies diagnosis. Impact of the duration of the storage was also evaluated. The sensitivity and the specificity of RT-hn-PCR i) on brain tissue were 96.6% (95% CI: [88.1-99.6]) and 92.7% (95% CI: [82.4-98.0]) respectively and ii) on brain tissue dried on filter paper 100% (95% CI: [93.8-100.0]) and 90.9% (95% CI: [80.0-97.0]) respectively. No loss of sensitivity of RT-hn-PCR on samples of brain tissue dried on filter paper left 7 days at ambient temperature was detected indicating that this method would enable analyzing impregnated filter papers sent to the national reference laboratory at ambient temperature within a 1-week shipment time. It could therefore be an effective alternative to facilitate storage and shipment of samples from low-access areas to enhance and expand rabies surveillance.

Modelling temporal dynamics of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) populations on Reunion Island (Indian Ocean), vectors of viruses of veterinary importance.

BACKGROUND: Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) and bluetongue (BT), two viral diseases transmitted by haematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to ruminants. To date, five species of Culicoides are recorded in Reunion Island in which the first two are proven vector species: Culicoides bolitinos, C. imicola, C. enderleini, C. grahamii and C. kibatiensis. Meteorological and environmental factors can severely constrain Culicoides populations and activities and thereby affect dispersion and intensity of transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses. The aim of this study was to describe and predict the temporal dynamics of all Culicoides species present in Reunion Island. METHODS: Between 2016 and 2018, 55 biweekly Culicoides catches using Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute traps were set up in 11 sites. A hurdle model (i.e. a presence/absence model combined with an abundance model) was developed for each species in order to determine meteorological and environmental drivers of presence and abundance of Culicoides. RESULTS: Abundance displayed very strong heterogeneity between sites. Average Culicoides catch per site per night ranged from 4 to 45,875 individuals. Culicoides imicola was dominant at low altitude and C. kibatiensis at high altitude. A marked seasonality was observed for the three other species with annual variations. Twelve groups of variables were tested. It was found that presence and/or abundance of all five Culicoides species were driven by common parameters: rain, temperature, vegetation index, forested environment and host density. Other parameters such as wind speed and farm building opening size governed abundance level of some species. In addition, Culicoides populations were also affected by meteorological parameters and/or vegetation index with different lags of time, suggesting an impact on immature stages. Taking into account all the parameters for the final hurdle model, the error rate by Normalized Root mean Square Error ranged from 4.4 to 8.5%. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to model Culicoides population dynamics in Reunion Island. In the absence of vaccination and vector control strategies, determining periods of high abundance of Culicoides is a crucial first step towards identifying periods at high risk of transmission for the two economically important viruses they transmit.

Culicoides Latreille in the sun: faunistic inventory of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Mayotte (Comoros Archipelago, Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: The south-west insular territories of the Indian Ocean have recently received attention concerning the diversity of arthropods of medical or veterinary interest. While a recent study highlighted the circulation of Culicoides-borne viruses, namely bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic disease, with clinical cases in Mayotte (comprising two islands, Petite-Terre and Grand-Terre), Comoros Archipelago, no data have been published concerning the species diversity of Culicoides present on the two islands. RESULTS: A total of 194,734 biting midges were collected in 18 sites, covering two collection sessions (April and June) in Mayotte. Our study reports for the first time livestock-associated Culicoides species and recorded at least 17 described Afrotropical species and one undescribed species. The most abundant species during the April collection session were C. trifasciellus (84.1%), C. bolitinos (5.4%), C. enderleini (3.9%), C. leucostictus (3.3%) and C. rhizophorensis (2.1%). All other species including C. imicola represented less than 1% of the total collection. Abundance ranged between 126-78,842 females with a mean and median abundance of 14,338 and 5111 individuals/night/site, respectively. During the June collection, the abundance per night was low, ranging between 6-475 individuals. Despite low abundance, C. trifasciellus and C. bolitinos were still the most abundant species. Culicoides sp. #50 is recorded for the first time outside South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reports for the first time the Culicoides species list for Mayotte, Comoros Archipelago, Indian Ocean. The low abundance and rare occurrence of C. imicola, which is usually considered the most abundant species in the Afrotropical region, is unexpected. The most abundant and frequent species is C. trifasciellus, which is not considered as a vector species so far, but its role needs further investigation. Further work is needed to describe Culicoides sp. #50 and to carry on faunistic investigations on the other islands of the archipelago as well as in neighboring countries.

Healthcare utilization, provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis, and estimation of human rabies burden in Madagascar.

In Madagascar, dog-mediated rabies has been endemic for over a century, however there is little data on its incidence or impact. We collected data over a 16-month period on provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) at a focal clinic in the Moramanga District and determined the rabies status of biting animals using clinical and laboratory diagnosis. We find that animal rabies cases are widespread, and clinic-based triage and investigation are effective ways to increase detection of rabies exposures and to rule out non-cases. A high proportion of rabies-exposed persons from Moramanga sought (84%) and completed PEP (90% of those that initiated PEP), likely reflecting the access and free provisioning of PEP in the district. Current clinic vial sharing practices demonstrate the potential for intradermal administration of PEP in endemic African settings, reducing vaccine use by 50% in comparison to intramuscular administration. A high proportion of PEP demand was attributed to rabies cases, with approximately 20% of PEP administered to probable rabies exposures and an additional 20% to low-to-no risk contacts with confirmed/probable animal or human cases. Using a simplified decision tree and our data on rabies exposure status and health-seeking behavior, we estimated an annual incidence of 42-110 rabies exposures and 1-3 deaths per 100,000 persons annually. Extrapolating to Madagascar, we estimate an annual burden of 282-745 human rabies deaths with current PEP provisioning averting 1499-3958 deaths each year. Data from other clinics and districts are needed to improve these estimates, particularly given that PEP availability is currently limited to only 31 clinics in the country. A combined strategy of mass dog vaccination, enhanced surveillance, and expanded access to PEP along with more judicious guidelines for administration could effectively reduce and eventually eliminate the burden of rabies in Madagascar.

Spatial distribution modelling of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, potential vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: In Senegal, the last epidemic of African horse sickness (AHS) occurred in 2007. The western part of the country (the Niayes area) concentrates modern farms with exotic horses of high value and was highly affected during the 2007 outbreak that has started in the area. Several studies were initiated in the Niayes area in order to better characterize Culicoides diversity, ecology and the impact of environmental and climatic data on dynamics of proven and suspected vectors. The aims of this study are to better understand the spatial distribution and diversity of Culicoides in Senegal and to map their abundance throughout the country. METHODS: Culicoides data were obtained through a nationwide trapping campaign organized in 2012. Two successive collection nights were carried out in 96 sites in 12 (of 14) regions of Senegal at the end of the rainy season (between September and October) using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps. Three different modeling approaches were compared: the first consists in a spatial interpolation by ordinary kriging of Culicoides abundance data. The two others consist in analyzing the relation between Culicoides abundance and environmental and climatic data to model abundance and investigate the environmental suitability; and were carried out by implementing generalized linear models and random forest models. RESULTS: A total of 1,373,929 specimens of the genus Culicoides belonging to at least 32 different species were collected in 96 sites during the survey. According to the RF (random forest) models which provided better estimates of abundances than Generalized Linear Models (GLM) models, environmental and climatic variables that influence species abundance were identified. Culicoides imicola, C. enderleini and C. miombo were mostly driven by average rainfall and minimum and maximum normalized difference vegetation index. Abundance of C. oxystoma was mostly determined by average rainfall and day temperature. Culicoides bolitinos had a particular trend; the environmental and climatic variables above had a lesser impact on its abundance. RF model prediction maps for the first four species showed high abundance in southern Senegal and in the groundnut basin area, whereas C. bolitinos was present in southern Senegal, but in much lower abundance. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental and climatic variables of importance that influence the spatial distribution of species abundance were identified. It is now crucial to evaluate the vector competence of major species and then combine the vector densities with densities of horses to quantify the risk of transmission of AHS virus across the country.

Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events.

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species.

Spatio-temporal genetic variation of the biting midge vector species Culicoides imicola (Ceratopogonidae) Kieffer in France.

BACKGROUND: Introduction of vector species into new areas represents a main driver for the emergence and worldwide spread of vector-borne diseases. This poses a substantial threat to livestock economies and public health. Culicoides imicola Kieffer, a major vector species of economically important animal viruses, is described with an apparent range expansion in Europe where it has been recorded in south-eastern continental France, its known northern distribution edge. This questioned on further C. imicola population extension and establishment into new territories. Studying the spatio-temporal genetic variation of expanding populations can provide valuable information for the design of reliable models of future spread. METHODS: Entomological surveys and population genetic approaches were used to assess the spatio-temporal population dynamics of C. imicola in France. Entomological surveys (2-3 consecutive years) were used to evaluate population abundances and local spread in continental France (28 sites in the Var department) and in Corsica (4 sites). We also genotyped at nine microsatellite loci insects from 3 locations in the Var department over 3 years (2008, 2010 and 2012) and from 6 locations in Corsica over 4 years (2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012). RESULTS: Entomological surveys confirmed the establishment of C. imicola populations in Var department, but indicated low abundances and no apparent expansion there within the studied period. Higher population abundances were recorded in Corsica. Our genetic data suggested the absence of spatio-temporal genetic changes within each region but a significant increase of the genetic differentiation between Corsican and Var populations through time. The lack of intra-region population structure may result from strong gene flow among populations. We discussed the observed temporal variation between Corsica and Var as being the result of genetic drift following introduction, and/or the genetic characteristics of populations at their range edge. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that local range expansion of C. imicola in continental France may be slowed by the low population abundances and unsuitable climatic and environmental conditions.

Modelling the Abundances of Two Major Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Species in the Niayes Area of Senegal.

In Senegal, considerable mortality in the equine population and hence major economic losses were caused by the African horse sickness (AHS) epizootic in 2007. Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola, known or suspected of being vectors of bluetongue and AHS viruses are two predominant species in the vicinity of horses and are present all year-round in Niayes area, Senegal. The aim of this study was to better understand the environmental and climatic drivers of the dynamics of these two species. Culicoides collections were obtained using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps at each of the 5 sites for three nights of consecutive collection per month over one year. Cross Correlation Map analysis was performed to determine the time-lags for which environmental variables and abundance data were the most correlated. C. oxystoma and C. imicola count data were highly variable and overdispersed. Despite modelling large Culicoides counts (over 220,000 Culicoides captured in 354 night-traps), using on-site climate measures, overdispersion persisted in Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson regression mixed-effect with random effect at the site of capture models. The only model able to take into account overdispersion was the Poisson regression mixed-effect model with nested random effects at the site and date of capture levels. According to this model, meteorological variables that contribute to explaining the dynamics of C. oxystoma and C. imicola abundances were: mean temperature and relative humidity of the capture day, mean humidity between 21 and 19 days prior a capture event, density of ruminants, percentage cover of water bodies within a 2 km radius and interaction between temperature and humidity for C. oxystoma; mean rainfall and NDVI of the capture day and percentage cover of water bodies for C. imicola. Other variables such as soil moisture, wind speed, degree days, land cover or landscape metrics could be tested to improve the models. Further work should also assess whether other trapping methods such as host-baited traps help reduce overdispersion.

Worldwide niche and future potential distribution of Culicoides imicola, a major vector of bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses.

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10' spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector's niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.

Remote sensing, land cover changes, and vector-borne diseases: use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery to map the risk of occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghardaïa, Algeria.

Ghardaïa, central Algeria, experienced a major outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in 2005. Two Leishmania species occur in this region: Leishmania major (MON-25) and Leishmania killicki (MON-301). The two species are transmitted respectively by the sandflies Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti and probably involve rodent reservoirs with different ecologies, suggesting distinct epidemiological patterns and distribution areas. The aims of this study were to establish risk maps for each Leishmania species in Ghardaïa, taking into account the specificities of their vectors and reservoirs biotopes, using land cover and topographical characteristics derived from remote sensing imagery. Using expert and bibliographic knowledge, habitats of vectors and reservoirs were mapped. Hazard maps, defined as areas of presence of both vectors and reservoirs, were then combined with vulnerability maps, defined as areas with human presence, to map the risk of CL occurrence due to each species. The vector habitat maps and risk maps were validated using available entomological data and epidemiological data. The results showed that remote sensing analysis can be used to map and differentiate risk areas for the two species causing CL and identify palm groves and areas bordering the river crossing the city as areas at risk of CL due to L. major, whereas more limited rocky hills on the outskirts of the city are identified as areas at risk of CL due to L. killicki. In the current context of urban development in Ghardaïa, this study provides useful information for the local authorities on the respective risk areas for CL caused by both parasites, in order to take prevention and control measures to prevent future CL outbreaks.

Confirmation of spatial patterns and temperature effects in Bluetongue virus serotype-8 transmission in NW-Europe from the 2007 reported case data.

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.

Seasonal dynamics of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, potential vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses in the Niayes area of Senegal.

BACKGROUND: The African horse sickness epizootic in Senegal in 2007 caused considerable mortality in the equine population and hence major economic losses. The vectors involved in the transmission of this arbovirus have never been studied specifically in Senegal. This first study of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species, potential vectors of African horse sickness in Senegal, was conducted at five sites (Mbao, Parc Hann, Niague, Pout and Thies) in the Niayes area, which was affected by the outbreak. METHODS: Two Onderstepoort light traps were used at each site for three nights of consecutive collection per month over one year to measure the apparent abundance of the Culicoides midges. RESULTS: In total, 224,665 specimens belonging to at least 24 different species (distributed among 11 groups of species) of the Culicoides genus were captured in 354 individual collections. Culicoides oxystoma, Culicoides kingi, Culicoides imicola, Culicoides enderleini and Culicoides nivosus were the most abundant and most frequent species at the collection sites. Peaks of abundance coincide with the rainy season in September and October. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to C. imicola, considered a major vector for the African horse sickness virus, C. oxystoma may also be involved in the transmission of this virus in Senegal given its abundance in the vicinity of horses and its suspected competence for other arboviruses including bluetongue virus. This study depicted a site-dependent spatial variability in the dynamics of the populations of the five major species in relation to the eco-climatic conditions at each site.

Spatio-temporal analysis of abundances of three malaria vector species in southern Benin using zero-truncated models.

BACKGROUND: A better understanding of the ecology and spatial-temporal distribution of malaria vectors is essential to design more effective and sustainable strategies for malaria control and elimination. In a previous study, we analyzed presence-absence data of An. funestus, An. coluzzii, and An. gambiae s.s. in an area of southern Benin with high coverage of vector control measures. Here, we further extend the work by analysing the positive values of the dataset to assess the determinants of the abundance of these three vectors and to produce predictive maps of vector abundance. METHODS: Positive counts of the three vectors were assessed using negative-binomial zero-truncated (NBZT) mixed-effect models according to vector control measures and environmental covariates derived from field and remote sensing data. After 8-fold cross-validation of the models, predictive maps of abundance of the sympatric An. funestus, An. coluzzii, and An. gambiae s.s. were produced. RESULTS: Cross-validation of the NBZT models showed a satisfactory predictive accuracy. Almost all changes in abundance between two surveys in the same village were well predicted by the models but abundances for An. gambiae s.s. were slightly underestimated. During the dry season, predictive maps showed that abundance greater than 1 bite per person per night were observed only for An. funestus and An. coluzzii. During the rainy season, we observed both increase and decrease in abundance of An. funestus, which are dependent on the ecological setting. Abundances of both An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.s. increased during the rainy season but not in the same areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our models helped characterize the ecological preferences of three major African malaria vectors. This works highlighted the importance to study independently the binomial and the zero-truncated count processes when evaluating vector control strategies. The study of the bio-ecology of malaria vector species in time and space is critical for the implementation of timely and efficient vector control strategies.

Did vaccination slow the spread of bluetongue in France?

Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.

Modelling the risk of being bitten by malaria vectors in a vector control area in southern Benin, west Africa.

BACKGROUND: The diversity of malaria vector populations, expressing various resistance and/or behavioural patterns could explain the reduced effectiveness of vector control interventions reported in some African countries. A better understanding of the ecology and distribution of malaria vectors is essential to design more effective and sustainable strategies for malaria control and elimination. Here, we analyzed the spatio-temporal risk of the contact between humans and the sympatric An. funestus and both M and S molecular forms of An. gambiae s.s. in an area of Benin with high coverage of vector control measures with an unprecedented level of resolution. METHODS: Presence-absence data for the three vectors from 1-year human-landing collections in 19 villages were assessed using binomial mixed-effects models according to vector control measures and environmental covariates derived from field and remote sensing data. After 8-fold cross-validations of the models, predictive maps of the risk of the contact between humans and the sympatric An. funestus and both molecular M and S forms of An. gambiae s.s. were computed. RESULTS: Model validations showed that the An. funestus, An. gambiae M form, and S form models provided an excellent (Area Under Curve>0.9), a good (AUC>0.8), and an acceptable (AUC>0.7) level of prediction, respectively. The distribution area of the probability of contact between human and An. funestus largely overlaps that of An. gambiae M form but this latter showed important seasonal variation. An. gambiae S form also showed seasonal variation but with different ecological preferences. Landscape data were useful to discriminate between the species' distributions. CONCLUSIONS: These results showed that available remote sensing data could help in predicting the human-vector contact for several species of malaria vectors at a village level scale. The predictive maps showed seasonal and spatial variations in the risk of human-vector contact for all three vectors. Such maps could help Malaria Control Programmes to implement more effective vector control strategy by taking into account to the dynamics of malaria vector species.