Output-based assessment of herd-level freedom from infection in endemic situations: Application of a Bayesian Hidden Markov model.

Countries have implemented control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases such as bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) that are tailored to each country-specific situation. Practical methods are needed to assess the output of these CPs in terms of the confidence of freedom from infection that is achieved. As part of the STOC free project, a Bayesian Hidden Markov model was developed, called STOC free model, to estimate the probability of infection at herd-level. In the current study, the STOC free model was applied to BVDV field data in four study regions, from CPs based on ear notch samples. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of herd-level freedom from BVDV in regions that are not (yet) free. We additionally evaluated the sensitivity of the parameter estimates and predicted probabilities of freedom to the prior distributions for the different model parameters. First, default priors were used in the model to enable comparison of model outputs between study regions. Thereafter, country-specific priors based on expert opinion or historical data were used in the model, to study the influence of the priors on the results and to obtain country-specific estimates. The STOC free model calculates a posterior value for the model parameters (e.g. herd-level test sensitivity and specificity, probability of introduction of infection) and a predicted probability of infection. The probability of freedom from infection was computed as one minus the probability of infection. For dairy herds that were considered free from infection within their own CP, the predicted probabilities of freedom were very high for all study regions ranging from 0.98 to 1.00, regardless of the use of default or country-specific priors. The priors did have more influence on two of the model parameters, herd-level sensitivity and the probability of remaining infected, due to the low prevalence and incidence of BVDV in the study regions. The advantage of STOC free model compared to scenario tree modelling, the reference method, is that actual data from the CP can be used and estimates are easily updated when new data becomes available.

A description and qualitative comparison of the elements of heterogeneous bovine viral diarrhea control programs that influence confidence of freedom.

For endemic infections in cattle that are not regulated at the European Union level, such as bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), European Member States have implemented control or eradication programs (CEP) tailored to their specific situations. Different methods are used to assign infection-free status in CEP; therefore, the confidence of freedom associated with the "free" status generated by different CEP are difficult to compare, creating problems for the safe trade of cattle between territories. Safe trade would be facilitated with an output-based framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CEP across herds, regions, or countries. The current paper represents the first step toward development of such a framework by seeking to describe and qualitatively compare elements of CEP that contribute to confidence of freedom. For this work, BVDV was used as a case study. We qualitatively compared heterogeneous BVDV CEP in 6 European countries: Germany, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Scotland. Information about BVDV CEP that were in place in 2017 and factors influencing the risk of introduction and transmission of BVDV (the context) were collected using an existing tool, with modifications to collect information about aspects of control and context. For the 6 participating countries, we ranked all individual elements of the CEP and their contexts that could influence the probability that cattle from a herd categorized as BVDV-free are truly free from infection. Many differences in the context and design of BVDV CEP were found. As examples, CEP were either mandatory or voluntary, resulting in variation in risks from neighboring herds, and risk factors such as cattle density and the number of imported cattle varied greatly between territories. Differences were also found in both testing protocols and definitions of freedom from disease. The observed heterogeneity in both the context and CEP design will create difficulties when comparing different CEP in terms of confidence of freedom from infection. These results highlight the need for a standardized practical methodology to objectively and quantitatively determine confidence of freedom resulting from different CEP around the world.

Exploring the longitudinal dynamics of herd BVD antibody test results using model-based clustering.

Determining the Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) infection status of cattle herds is a challenge for control and eradication schemes. Given the changing dynamics of BVD  virus (BVDV) antibody responses in cattle, classifying herds based on longitudinal changes in the results of BVDV antibody tests could offer a novel, complementary approach to categorising herds that is less likely than the present system to result in a herd's status changing from year to year, as it is more likely to capture the true exposure dynamics of the farms. This paper describes the dynamics of BVDV antibody test values (measured as percentage positivity (PP)) obtained from 15,500 bovines between 2007 and 2010 from thirty nine cattle herds located in Scotland and Northern England. It explores approaches of classifying herds based on trend, magnitude and shape of their antibody PP trajectories and investigates the epidemiological similarities between farms within the same cluster. Gaussian mixture models were used for the magnitude and shape clustering. Epidemiologically meaningful clusters were obtained. Farm cluster membership depends on clustering approach used. Moderate concordance was found between the shape and magnitude clusters. These methods hold potential for application to enhance control efforts for BVD and other infectious livestock diseases.

Strategies for screening young stock for antibodies - optimising numbers to test, cut-points, & predictive values for bovine viral diarrhoea virus.

The antibody seroprevalence of young stock can be a useful indicator of recent or current infection in a herd. We examine the factors that contribute to the assessment of herd exposure to disease, via spot testing for antibody, using bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDv) as an example. A statistical distribution of seroprevalences for BVDv in beef herds identified three groups of herds: low, intermediate and high within-herd BVDv antibody seroprevalence. We tested two assumptions -the intermediate seroprevalence group of herds is assumed to be negative for BVDv at the herd level and alternatively if this group is assumed to be positive. We found that: The herd-level sensitivity and specificity are sensitive to the assumption regarding the herds with intermediate seroprevalence. If an appropriate cut-point is chosen, reducing the sample size from ten to five does not produce a large drop in herd-level test performance. Increasing the cut-point may be valuable at the outset of an eradication programme. Increasing the sample size and decreasing the cut-point is advantageous towards the end of an eradication programme, to minimise the risk of positive herds being misclassified. The framework presented here illustrates how seroprevalence screening may be understood and assessed.

An empirical comparison of isolate-based and sample-based definitions of antimicrobial resistance and their effect on estimates of prevalence.

Antimicrobial resistance is primarily a problem in human medicine but there are unquantified links of transmission in both directions between animal and human populations. Quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits of reduced antimicrobial usage in livestock requires robust quantification of transmission of resistance between animals, the environment and the human population. This in turn requires appropriate measurement of resistance. To tackle this we selected two different methods for determining whether a sample is resistant - one based on screening a sample, the other on testing individual isolates. Our overall objective was to explore the differences arising from choice of measurement. A literature search demonstrated the widespread use of testing of individual isolates. The first aim of this study was to compare, quantitatively, sample level and isolate level screening. Cattle or sheep faecal samples (n=41) submitted for routine parasitology were tested for antimicrobial resistance in two ways: (1) "streak" direct culture onto plates containing the antimicrobial of interest; (2) determination of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 8-10 isolates per sample compared to published MIC thresholds. Two antibiotics (ampicillin and nalidixic acid) were tested. With ampicillin, direct culture resulted in more than double the number of resistant samples than the MIC method based on eight individual isolates. The second aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of the observed relationship between these two measures of antimicrobial resistance to re-estimate the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance from a previous study, in which we had used "streak" cultures. Boot-strap methods were used to estimate the proportion of samples that would have tested resistant in the historic study, had we used the isolate-based MIC method instead. Our boot-strap results indicate that our estimates of prevalence of antimicrobial resistance would have been considerably lower in the historic study had the MIC method been used. Finally we conclude that there is no single way of defining a sample as resistant to an antimicrobial agent. The method used greatly affects the estimated prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in a sampled population of animals, thus potentially resulting in misleading results. Comparing methods on the same samples allows us to re-estimate the prevalence from other studies, had other methods for determining resistance been used. The results of this study highlight the importance of establishing what the most appropriate measure of antimicrobial resistance is, for the proposed purpose of the results.

Voluntary monitoring systems for pig health and welfare in the UK: Comparative analysis of prevalence and temporal patterns of selected non-respiratory post mortem conditions.

Collection of abattoir data related to public health is common worldwide. Standardised on-going programmes that collect information from abattoirs that inform producers about the presence and frequency of disease that are important to them rather than public health hazards are less common. The three voluntary pig health schemes, implemented in the United Kingdom, are integrated systems which capture information on different macroscopic disease conditions detected in slaughtered pigs. Many of these conditions have been associated with a reduction in performance traits and consequent increases in production costs. The schemes are the Wholesome Pigs Scotland in Scotland, the British Pig Health Scheme in England and Wales and the Pig Regen Ltd. health and welfare checks in Northern Ireland. In this study, four post mortem conditions (pericarditis, milk spots, papular dermatitis and tail damage) were surveyed and analysed over a ten and half year period, with the aim to compare the prevalence, monthly variations, and yearly trends between schemes. Liver milk spot was the most frequently recorded condition while tail damage was the least frequently observed condition. The prevalence of papular dermatitis was relatively low compared to liver milk spot and pericarditis in the three schemes. A general decreasing trend was observed for milk spots and papular dermatitis for all three schemes. The prevalence of pericarditis increased in Northern Ireland and England and Wales; while Scotland in recent years showed a decreasing trend. An increasing trend of tail damage was depicted in Scotland and Northern Ireland until 2013/2014 followed by a decline in recent years compared to that of England and Wales with a decreasing trend over the full study period. Monthly effects were more evident for milk spots and papular dermatitis. Similarity of the modus operandi of the schemes made the comparison of temporal variations and patterns in gross pathology between countries possible over time, especially between countries with similar pig production profile. This study of temporal patterns enables early detection of prevalence increases and alerts industry and researchers to investigate the reasons behind such changes. These schemes are, therefore, valuable assets for endemic disease surveillance, early warning for emerging disease and also for monitoring of welfare outcomes.

British Escherichia coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS): to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157 in herds with cattle destined for the food chain.

Escherichia coli O157 are zoonotic bacteria for which cattle are an important reservoir. Prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 in British cattle for human consumption are over 10 years old. A new baseline is needed to inform current human health risk. The British E. coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS) ran between September 2014 and November 2015 on 270 farms across Scotland and England & Wales. This is the first study to be conducted contemporaneously across Great Britain, thus enabling comparison between Scotland and England & Wales. Herd-level prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 did not differ significantly for Scotland (0·236, 95% CI 0·166-0·325) and England & Wales (0·213, 95% CI 0·156-0·283) (P = 0·65). The majority of isolates were verocytotoxin positive. A higher proportion of samples from Scotland were in the super-shedder category, though there was no difference between the surveys in the likelihood of a positive farm having at least one super-shedder sample. E. coli O157 continues to be common in British beef cattle, reaffirming public health policy that contact with cattle and their environments is a potential infection source.

Social and economic aspects of aquatic animal health.

Aquaculture is an increasingly important source of animal protein for a growing global population. Disease is a major constraint to production, with resultant socio-economic impacts for individuals, communities and economies which rely on aquaculture. Aquatic animal health is also strongly influenced by human factors, ranging from international trade regulations to the behaviours of individuals working in aquaculture. This article summarises the human factors associated with aquaculture production using international examples for illustration.

L'aquaculture est une source de protéines animales de plus en plus importante compte tenu des besoins d'une population mondiale toujours plus nombreuse. Les maladies sont un obstacle majeur pour la production du secteur, avec des effets socio-économiques importants pour les individus, les communautés et les économies dépendant de l'aquaculture. La santé des animaux aquatiques subit également l'influence de facteurs anthropiques, depuis les réglementations applicables au commerce international jusqu'au comportement des personnels des fermes aquacoles. Cet article résume les facteurs anthropiques associés à l'aquaculture, à partir d'exemples observés dans divers endroits du monde.

La acuicultura constituye una fuente de proteínas animales de creciente importancia para una población mundial que aumenta sin cesar. Las enfermedades, que son el principal factor limitante que pesa sobre la producción, tienen también efectos socioeconómicos para las personas, comunidades y economías que dependen de la acuicultura. La sanidad de los animales acuáticos se ve igualmente muy influida por una panoplia de factores humanos, que van desde los reglamentos de comercio internacional hasta el proceder del personal de las instalaciones acuícolas. Sirviéndose de ejemplos tomados de diferentes países, los autores resumen los factores humanos que influyen en la producción acuícola.

Insights for the assessment of the economic impact of endemic diseases: specific adaptation of economic frameworks using the case of bovine viral diarrhoea.

Generic frameworks for the economic analysis of farm animal disease are now well established. The paper, therefore, uses bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) as an example to explore how these frameworks need to be adapted to fit the characteristics of a particular disease and the specific objectives of the analysis. In the case of BVD, given the relative strength of tests available to correctly identify virus-positive animals, thus enabling them to be culled, the emphasis has been on cost-benefit analysis of regional and national certification/eradication schemes. Such analyses in turn raise interesting questions about farmer uptake and maintenance of certification schemes and the equity and cost-effective implementation of these schemes. The complex epidemiology of BVD virus infections and the long-term, widespread and often occult nature of BVD effects make economic analysis of the disease and its control particularly challenging. However, this has resulted in a wider whole-farm perspective that captures the influence of multiple decisions, not just those directly associated with disease prevention and control. There is a need to include management of reproduction, risk and enterprise mix in the research on farmer decision-making, as all these factors impinge on, and are affected by, the spread of BVD.

Les cadres généraux de l'analyse économique des maladies affectant les animaux d'élevage sont désormais bien établis. Les auteurs utilisent l'exemple de la diarrhée virale bovine pour définir les adaptations à apporter à ces cadres afin d'intégrer les caractéristiques d'une maladie donnée et les objectifs spécifiques de l'analyse. Dans le cas de la diarrhée virale bovine, compte tenu de la robustesse des tests disponibles pour détecter les animaux infectés (qui seront abattus), l'accent est mis sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices des dispositifs régionaux et nationaux de certification sanitaire et d'éradication. Ces analyses soulèvent des questions intéressantes quant à l'engagement et à la persévérance des éleveurs à l'égard des dispositifs de certification et à la mise en oeuvre équitable et rentable de ces dispositifs. La complexité de l'infection due au virus de la diarrhée virale bovine et le caractère durable, répandu et souvent inapparent de ses effets rendent particulièrement difficiles les analyses économiques de cette maladie et de son contrôle. Ces analyses ont toutefois permis de mieux appréhender la situation dans la perspective d'une exploitation, en tenant compte des effets de décisions multiples qui ne se limitent pas à celles directement destinées à prévenir et à contrôler la maladie. La gestion de la reproduction, la gestion des risques et les choix de diversification doivent impérativement être intégrés dans la recherche sur les processus décisionnaires des éleveurs, car tous ces aspects affectent et sont affectés par la propagation de la diarrhée virale bovine.

Hoy en día ya existen modelos genéricos sobradamente contrastados para analizar en clave económica las enfermedades de los animales de granja. Partiendo de esta realidad, los autores utilizan el ejemplo de la diarrea viral bovina (DVB) para determinar el modo de adaptar esos modelos genéricos para que encajen con las características de una enfermedad en particular y con los objetivos específicos de un determinado análisis. En el caso de la DVB, teniendo en cuenta la relativa solidez de los ensayos existentes para identificar correctamente a los animales infectados (para su posterior sacrificio), los autores se centraron en analizar la relación costo-beneficio que presentan algunos dispositivos regionales y nacionales de certificación sanitaria o erradicación. Estos análisis, a su vez, abren interesantes interrogantes sobre el nivel de adhesión y perseverancia de los productores respecto de los programas de certificación y sobre el grado de equidad y rentabilidad con que se aplican esos dispositivos. La compleja epidemiología de las infecciones por el virus de la DVB y el carácter duradero, extendido y a menudo oculto de sus efectos dificultan especialmente el análisis en clave económica de la enfermedad y de las medidas para combatirla. Sin embargo, estos análisis han permitido aprehender desde una perspectiva más amplia la situación de la explotación en su conjunto, teniendo en cuenta la influencia de múltiples decisiones, y no solo de aquellas directamente relacionadas con la prevención y el control de la enfermedad. En toda investigación sobre el proceso decisorio de los productores es necesario tener en cuenta la gestión de la reproducción, la gestión de los riesgos y el tipo de actividades de la explotación, pues todos estos factores influyen en la propagación de la DVB y son influidos por ella.

Analysis of bovine viral diarrhoea virus: Biobank and sequence database to support eradication in Scotland.

Samples from bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV)-positive cattle were gathered by Scottish diagnostic laboratories and used to produce a Biobank of samples with associated location and identification data in support of the Scottish BVDV eradication scheme. The samples were subject to direct amplification and sequencing of the 5'-untranslated region (5'-UTR) to define the viral types and subtypes present. From 2693 samples collected prior to 2016, approximately 2300 sequences were obtained, representing 8 BVDV type 1 subtypes. No BVDV type 2 samples were detected. The samples came from all regions of the UK but 66 per cent were from Scotland. Analysis of the sequences showed great diversity in the 5'-UTR, with 1206 different sequences. Many samples carried virus with identical 5'-UTR sequences; often from single locations, but there were also examples of the same sequence being obtained from samples at several different locations. This work provides a resource that can be used to analyse the movement of BVDV strains both within Scotland and between Scotland and other nations, particularly in the latter stages of the Scottish eradication programme, and so inform the advice available to both livestock keepers and policymakers.

Difficulties arising from the variety of testing schemes used for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV).

Globally, the eradication of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is still in its infancy, but eradication has been, or is being, adopted by several countries or regions. Comparisons between countries' schemes allow others to assess best practice, and aggregating published results from eradication schemes provides greater statistical power when analysing data. Aggregating data requires that results derived from different testing schemes be calibrated against one another. The authors aimed to evaluate whether relationships between published BVDV test results could be created and present the outcome of a systematic literature review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The results are tabulated, providing a summary of papers where there is potential cross-calibration and a summary of the obstacles preventing such data aggregation. Although differences in measuring BVDV present barriers to academic progress, they may also affect progress within individual eradication schemes. The authors examined the time taken to retest following an initial antibody BVDV test in the Scottish eradication scheme. The authors demonstrate that retesting occurred quicker if the initial not negative test was from blood rather than milk samples. Such differences in the response of farmers/veterinarians to tests may be of interest to the design of future schemes.

Comparison of Respiratory Disease Prevalence among Voluntary Monitoring Systems for Pig Health and Welfare in the UK.

Surveillance of animal diseases provides information essential for the protection of animal health and ultimately public health. The voluntary pig health schemes, implemented in the United Kingdom, are integrated systems which capture information on different macroscopic disease conditions detected in slaughtered pigs. Many of these conditions have been associated with a reduction in performance traits and consequent increases in production costs. The schemes are the Wholesome Pigs Scotland in Scotland, the BPEX Pig Health Scheme in England and Wales and the Pig Regen Ltd. health and welfare checks done in Northern Ireland. This report set out to compare the prevalence of four respiratory conditions (enzootic pneumonia-like lesions, pleurisy, pleuropneumonia lesions and abscesses in the lung) assessed by these three Pig Health Schemes. The seasonal variations and year trends associated with the conditions in each scheme are presented. The paper also highlights the differences in prevalence for each condition across these schemes and areas where further research is needed. A general increase in the prevalence of enzootic pneumonia like lesions was observed in Scotland, England and Wales since 2009, while a general decrease was observed in Northern Ireland over the years of the scheme. Pleurisy prevalence has increased since 2010 in all three schemes, whilst pleuropneumonia has been decreasing. Prevalence of abscesses in the lung has decreased in England, Wales and Northern Ireland but has increased in Scotland. This analysis highlights the value of surveillance schemes based on abattoir pathology monitoring of four respiratory lesions. The outputs at scheme level have significant value as indicators of endemic and emerging disease, and for producers and herd veterinarians in planning and evaluating herd health control programs when comparing individual farm results with national averages.

Replicating disease spread in empirical cattle networks by adjusting the probability of infection in random networks.

Comparisons between mass-action or "random" network models and empirical networks have produced mixed results. Here we seek to discover whether a simulated disease spread through randomly constructed networks can be coerced to model the spread in empirical networks by altering a single disease parameter - the probability of infection. A stochastic model for disease spread through herds of cattle is utilised to model the passage of an SEIR (susceptible-latent-infected-resistant) through five networks. The first network is an empirical network of recorded contacts, from four datasets available, and the other four networks are constructed from randomly distributed contacts based on increasing amounts of information from the recorded network. A numerical study on adjusting the value of the probability of infection was conducted for the four random network models. We found that relative percentage reductions in the probability of infection, between 5.6% and 39.4% in the random network models, produced results that most closely mirrored the results from the empirical contact networks. In all cases tested, to reduce the differences between the two models, required a reduction in the probability of infection in the random network.

Associations between bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) seropositivity and performance indicators in beef suckler and dairy herds.

Data from 255 Scottish beef suckler herds and 189 Scottish dairy herds surveyed as part of national bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) prevalence studies from October 2006 to May 2008 were examined retrospectively to determine the relationship between serological status and key performance indicators derived from national cattle movement records. On average, calf mortality rates were 1.35 percentage points higher in seropositive beef herds and 3.05 percentage points higher in seropositive dairy herds than in negative control herds. Seropositive beef herds were also more likely to show increases in calf mortality rates and culling rates between successive years. There were no discernible effects of BVDV on the average age at first calving or calving interval for either herd type. Accompanying questionnaire data revealed that only 27% of beef farmers and 25% of dairy farmers with seropositive herds thought their cattle were affected by BVDV, which suggests that the clinical effects of exposure may be inapparent under field conditions or masked by other causes of reproductive failure and culling. Beef farmers were significantly more likely to perceive a problem when their herd experienced acute changes in calf mortality rates, culling rates, and calving intervals between successive years. However, only 35% of these perceived positive herds were actually seropositive for BVDV. These findings emphasize both the importance of routinely screening herds to determine their true infection status and the potential for using national cattle movement records to identify herds that may be experiencing outbreaks from BVDV or other infectious diseases that impact herd performance.

Relative associations of cattle movements, local spread, and biosecurity with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) seropositivity in beef and dairy herds.

The success of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication campaigns can be undermined by spread through local transmission pathways and poor farmer compliance with biosecurity recommendations. This work combines recent survey data with cattle movement data to explore the issues likely to impact on the success of BVDV control in Scotland. In this analysis, data from 249 beef suckler herds and 185 dairy herds in Scotland were studied retrospectively to determine the relative influence of cattle movements, local spread, and biosecurity on BVDV seropositivity. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that cattle movement risk factors had approximately 3 times greater explanatory power than risk factors for local spread amongst beef suckler herds, but approximately the same explanatory power as risk factors for local spread amongst dairy herds. These findings are most likely related to differences in cattle husbandry practices and suggest that where financial prioritization is required, focusing on reducing movement-based risk is likely to be of greatest benefit when applied to beef suckler herds. The reported use of biosecurity measures such as purchasing cattle from BVDV accredited herds only, performing diagnostic screening at the time of sale, implementing isolation periods for purchased cattle, and installing double fencing on shared field boundaries had minimal impact on the risk of beef or dairy herds being seropositive for BVDV. Only 28% of beef farmers and 24% of dairy farmers with seropositive herds recognized that their cattle were affected by BVDV and those that did perceive a problem were no less likely to sell animals as replacement breeding stock and no more likely to implement biosecurity measures against local spread than farmers with no perceived problems. In relation to the current legislative framework for BVDV control in Scotland, these findings emphasize the importance of requiring infected herds take appropriate biosecurity measures to prevent further disease transmission and conducting adequate follow-up to ensure that biosecurity measures are being implemented correctly in the field.

Prevalence of antibodies to bovine viral diarrhoea virus in bulk tank milk and associated risk factors in Scottish dairy herds.

Bulk tank milk samples were collected from 374 dairy farms in Scotland in 2007/2008 along with questionnaire data relating to the management of the farm. Milk samples were tested for antibodies to bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) using a commercially available (Svanova) kit and percentage positivity scores calculated according to the manufacturer's guidelines. There were 220 farms that did not routinely vaccinate for bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD), and these were distributed according to the Swedish BVD eradication classes as 12.7 per cent, 22.3 per cent, 44.5 per cent and 20.5 per cent for Classes 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. A more sophisticated statistical method (finite mixture modelling) which does not depend on arbitrary thresholds and categories suggested a 73 per cent prevalence of herds with high mean levels of antibodies. Risk factor analysis suggested that routine vaccination for BVD, suspicion of BVD, housing of pregnant cows with calves, total number of cows and the proportion of cows that were dry were all associated with increased BVDV antibodies in bulk milk. The inclusion of BVD within the farm's health plan was associated with decreased BVDV antibodies in the bulk milk.

The influence of empirical contact networks on modelling diseases in cattle.

We present two stochastic models of the passage of an SEIR (susceptible-latent-infected-resistant) disease through herds of cattle. One model is based on a contact network constructed via continuously recorded interaction data from two herds of cattle, the other, a matching network constructed using the principles of mass-action mixing. The recorded contact data were produced by attaching proximity data loggers to two separate herds of cattle during two separate recording periods. The network constructed using the principles of mass-action mixing uses the same number of contacts as the recorded network but distributes them randomly amongst the animals. The recorded networks had a greater number of repeated contacts, lower closeness and clustering scores and greater average path length than the mass-action networks. A lower proportion of simulations of the recorded network produce any disease spread when compared to those simulations of the mass-action network and, of those that did, fewer infected animals were predicted. For all parameter values tested, within the sensitivity analysis, similar differences were found between the recorded and mass-action network models.

Impacts of climate, host and landscape factors on Culicoides species in Scotland.

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector a wide variety of internationally important arboviral pathogens of livestock and represent a widespread biting nuisance. This study investigated the influence of landscape, host and remotely-sensed climate factors on local abundance of livestock-associated species in Scotland, within a hierarchical generalized linear model framework. The Culicoides obsoletus group and the Culicoides pulicaris group accounted for 56% and 41%, respectively, of adult females trapped. Culicoides impunctatus Goetghebuer and C. pulicaris s.s. Linnaeus were the most abundant and widespread species in the C. pulicaris group (accounting for 29% and 10%, respectively, of females trapped). Abundance models performed well for C. impunctatus, Culicoides deltus Edwards and Culicoides punctatus Meigen (adjusted R(2) : 0.59-0.70), but not for C. pulicaris s.s. (adjusted R(2) : 0.36) and the C. obsoletus group (adjusted R(2) : 0.08). Local-scale abundance patterns were best explained by models combining host, landscape and climate factors. The abundance of C. impunctatus was negatively associated with cattle density, but positively associated with pasture cover, consistent with this species' preference in the larval stage for lightly grazed, wet rush pasture. Predicted abundances of this species varied widely among farms even over short distances (less than a few km). Modelling approaches that may facilitate the more accurate prediction of local abundance patterns for a wider range of Culicoides species are discussed.