A pharmacy-led sore throat test and treat (STTT) service: antigen testing and antibiotic supply rates during the period of heightened public awareness of Group A Streptococcus infections.

BACKGROUND: Community pharmacies in Wales delivered an NHS-funded sore throat test and treat (STTT) service during the period of increased invasive Group A Streptococcus (iGAS) incidents in winter 2022-23. Service users were screened using FeverPAIN/CENTOR scores, offered GAS rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) if appropriate, and antibiotics if indicated. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the service's response to a substantial rise in sore throat presentations during a period of heightened public anxiety. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with anonymized individual-level data from electronic pharmacy records of all eligible STTT service users, between January 2022 and March 2023. RESULTS: Antibiotics were supplied to 24% (95% CI: 23-24) of people who used the STTT service and 31% (95% CI: 31-32) of those who met the threshold for an RADT. Of 27 441 STTT consultations, 9308 (33.9%) occurred during December 2022. In the week commencing 2 December 2022, following the announcements of increased iGAS incidents, we observed a statistically significant increase of 1700 consultations (95% CI: 924-2476) and a statistically significant decrease in supply rate of 13.9 antibiotics per 100 RADT (95% CI: -18.40 to -9.40). Antibiotic supply rates increased thereafter to those observed before the announcements of iGAS incidents. Referral rates to other primary care or emergency settings remained below 10% throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, despite a dramatic increase in sore throat consultation rates in response to media reports, the pre-specified pathway followed by pharmacists ensured appropriate use of antibiotics, and absorbed a substantial workload that would otherwise end up in other healthcare settings.

Best practice guidance for antibiotic audit and feedback interventions in primary care: a modified Delphi study from the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial resistance: Primary Care Antibiotic Audit and Feedback Network (JPIAMR-PAAN).

BACKGROUND: Primary care is a critical partner for antimicrobial stewardship efforts given its high human antibiotic usage. Peer comparison audit and feedback (A&F) is often used to reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. The design and implementation of A&F may impact its effectiveness. There are no best practice guidelines for peer comparison A&F in antibiotic prescribing in primary care. OBJECTIVE: To develop best practice guidelines for peer comparison A&F for antibiotic prescribing in primary care in high income countries by leveraging international expertise via the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance-Primary Care Antibiotic Audit and Feedback Network. METHODS: We used a modified Delphi process to achieve convergence of expert opinions on best practice statements for peer comparison A&F based on existing evidence and theory. Three rounds were performed, each with online surveys and virtual meetings to enable discussion and rating of each best practice statement. A five-point Likert scale was used to rate consensus with a median threshold score of 4 to indicate a consensus statement. RESULTS: The final set of guidelines include 13 best practice statements in four categories: general considerations (n = 3), selecting feedback recipients (n = 1), data and indicator selection (n = 4), and feedback delivery (n = 5). CONCLUSION: We report an expert-derived best practice recommendations for designing and evaluating peer comparison A&F for antibiotic prescribing in primary care. These 13 statements can be used by A&F designers to optimize the impact of their quality improvement interventions, and improve antibiotic prescribing in primary care.

Agreement between rapid antigen detection test and culture for group A streptococcus in patients recently treated for pharyngotonsillitis - a prospective observational study in primary care.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to compare rapid antigen detection test (RADT) and throat culture for group A streptococci (GAS) among patients recently treated with penicillin V for GAS pharyngotonsillitis. DESIGN AND SETTING: The study was a secondary analysis within a randomized controlled trial comparing 5 versus 10 days of penicillin V for GAS pharyngotonsillitis. Patients were recruited at 17 primary health care centres in Sweden. SUBJECTS: We included 316 patients ≥ 6 years of age, having 3-4 Centor criteria, a positive RADT and a positive throat culture for GAS at inclusion, and also having a RADT and throat culture for GAS taken at a follow-up visit within 21 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: RADT and conventional throat culture for GAS. RESULTS: This prospective study showed 91% agreement between RADT and culture at follow-up within 21 days. Only 3/316 participants had negative RADT with a positive throat culture for GAS at follow-up, and 27/316 patients with positive RADT had a negative culture for GAS. Log rank test did not reveal any difference in the decline over time of positive tests between RADT and throat culture (p = 0.24). Agreement between RADT and throat culture for GAS at the follow-up was not associated with treatment duration, number of days from inclusion until follow-up, throat symptoms at follow-up, gender, or age. CONCLUSION: RADT and culture for GAS agreed to a high extent also after recent penicillin V treatment. RADT for GAS means a low risk for missing the presence of GAS.KEY POINTSTesting for group A streptococci (GAS) before antibiotic treatment can reduce antibiotic prescription for pharyngotonsillitis. It has been proposed that rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) for group A streptococci after recent penicillin V treatment may be falsely positive due to possible persisting antigens from non-viable bacteria.The decline of the presence of GAS was similar between RADT and conventional throat culture in patients who had recently completed penicillin V treatment for GAS pharyngotonsillitisRADT for GAS is useful in identifying the presence of GAS after recent penicillin V treatment.

Best management of patients with an acute sore throat - a critical analysis of current evidence and a consensus of experts from different countries and traditions.

BACKGROUND: There is a very large body of publications discussing the management of patients with an acute sore throat. Advocates for a restrictive antibiotic policy and advocates for a more liberal use of antibiotics emphasise different and valid arguments and to date have not been able to unite in a consensus. Contradicting guidelines based on the same body of knowledge is not logical, may cause confusion and cause unwanted variation in clinical management. METHODS: In multiple video meetings and email correspondence from March to November 2022 and finally in a workshop at the annual meeting for the North American Primary Care Group in November 2022, experts from different countries representing different traditions agreed on how the current evidence should be interpreted. RESULTS: This critical analysis identifies that the problem can be resolved by introducing a new triage scheme considering both the acute risk for suppurative complications and sepsis as well as the long-term risk of developing rheumatic fever. CONCLUSIONS: The new triage scheme may solve the long-standing problem of advocating for a restrictive use of antibiotics while also satisfying concerns that critically ill patients might be missed with severe consequences. We acknowledge that the perspective of this problem is vastly different between high- and low-income countries. Furthermore, we discuss the new trend which allows nurses and pharmacists to independently manage these patients and the increased need for safety netting required for such management.

Effect of group education and person-centered support in primary health care on mental health and quality of life in women aged 45-60 years with symptoms commonly associated with stress: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Mental illness and somatic symptoms are common causes of long-term sick leave for women during menopause, which usually occurs between the ages of 45 and 55. Many women experience a lack of knowledge about menopause and its associated symptoms. This study evaluates the effect of group education and person-centered individual support in primary health care (PHC) on mental health and quality of life for women in menopause with symptoms that are usually associated with stress. METHODS: The randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) with a two-factor design was conducted in PHC in southwestern Sweden, from 2018 to 2019. A total of 370 women aged 45-60 were allocated in four groups: 1, group education (GE) 2, GE and person-centered individual support (PCS) 3, PCS and 4, control group. GE comprised four weekly sessions and PCS included five sessions with topics related to menopause. The effect of the interventions were followed up at 6 and 12 months. Linear and ordinal regression were used to analyse the effect of the intervention, either group education or person-centred individual support. RESULTS: The main findings: Improved quality of life and physical, psychological, and urogenital symptoms. GE and PCS resulted in improvement of the quality of life at six months. At the 12-month follow-up these results were significantly strengthened for PCS and improved health-related quality of life, and reduced mental, urogenital, and stress-related symptoms with an effect lasting at least 12 months. These results suggest that this intervention could be an effective intervention in PHC for improving women's health in menopause. CONCLUSIONS: PCS can be an effective intervention in PHC for improving women's health in menopause and possibly also prevent the development of exhaustion syndrome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Universal trial number is U1111-1219-6542 and the registration number in ClinicalTrials.gov is NCT03663075, date of registration 10/09/2018.

Effect of a multifaceted antibiotic stewardship intervention to improve antibiotic prescribing for suspected urinary tract infections in frail older adults (ImpresU): pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in four European countries.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether antibiotic prescribing for suspected urinary tract infections in frail older adults can be reduced through a multifaceted antibiotic stewardship intervention. DESIGN: Pragmatic, parallel, cluster randomised controlled trial, with a five month baseline period and a seven month follow-up period. SETTING: 38 clusters consisting of one or more general practices (n=43) and older adult care organisations (n=43) in Poland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, from September 2019 to June 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 1041 frail older adults aged 70 or older (Poland 325, the Netherlands 233, Norway 276, Sweden 207), contributing 411 person years to the follow-up period. INTERVENTION: Healthcare professionals received a multifaceted antibiotic stewardship intervention consisting of a decision tool for appropriate antibiotic use, supported by a toolbox with educational materials. A participatory-action-research approach was used for implementation, with sessions for education, evaluation, and local tailoring of the intervention. The control group provided care as usual. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the number of antibiotic prescriptions for suspected urinary tract infections per person year. Secondary outcomes included the incidence of complications, all cause hospital referrals, all cause hospital admissions, all cause mortality within 21 days after suspected urinary tract infections, and all cause mortality. RESULTS: The numbers of antibiotic prescriptions for suspected urinary tract infections in the follow-up period were 54 prescriptions in 202 person years (0.27 per person year) in the intervention group and 121 prescriptions in 209 person years (0.58 per person year) in the usual care group. Participants in the intervention group had a lower rate of receiving an antibiotic prescription for a suspected urinary tract infection compared with participants in the usual care group, with a rate ratio of 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.26 to 0.68). No differences between intervention and control group were observed in the incidence of complications (<0.01 v 0.05 per person year), hospital referrals (<0.01 v 0.05), admissions to hospital (0.01 v 0.05), and mortality (0 v 0.01) within 21 days after suspected urinary tract infections, nor in all cause mortality (0.26 v 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a multifaceted antibiotic stewardship intervention safely reduced antibiotic prescribing for suspected urinary tract infections in frail older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03970356.

Regional and national antimicrobial stewardship activities: a survey from the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance-Primary Care Antibiotic Audit and Feedback Network (JPIAMR-PAAN).

Background: Antibiotic overuse and misuse in primary care are common, highlighting the importance of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) efforts in this setting. Audit and feedback (A&F) interventions can improve professional practice and performance in some settings. Objectives and methods: To leverage the expertise from international members of the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance - Primary care Antibiotic Audit and feedback Network (JPIAMR-PAAN). Network members all have experience of designing and delivering A&F interventions to reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing in primary care settings. We aim to introduce the network and explore ongoing A&F activities in member regions. An online survey was administered to all network members to collect regional information. Results: Fifteen respondents from 11 countries provided information on A&F activities in their country, and national/regional antibiotic stewardship programmes or policies. Most countries use electronic medical records as the primary data source, antibiotic appropriateness as the main outcome of feedback, and target GPs as the prescribers of interest. Funding sources varied across countries, which could influence the frequency and quality of A&F interventions. Nine out of 11 countries reported having a national antibiotic stewardship programme or policy, which aim to provide systematic support to ongoing AMS efforts and aid sustainability. Conclusions: The survey identified gaps and opportunities for AMS efforts that include A&F across member countries in Europe, Canada and Australia. JPIAMR-PAAN will continue to leverage its members to produce best practice resources and toolkits for antibiotic A&F interventions in primary care settings and identify research priorities.

Methenamine hippurate to prevent recurrent urinary tract infections in older women: protocol for a randomised, placebo-controlled trial (ImpresU).

INTRODUCTION: Methenamine hippurate is a urinary antiseptic used as preventive treatment for recurrent urinary tract infections (UTIs) in some Scandinavian countries. However, the scientific evidence for the preventive effect and safety for longer-term use is limited. The aim of this study is to assess whether methenamine hippurate can reduce the incidence of UTIs in older women with recurrent UTIs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The ImpresU consortium is a collaboration between Norway, Sweden, Poland and the Netherlands. The study is a randomised, controlled, triple-blind phase IV clinical trial. Women ≥70 years with recurrent UTIs are screened for eligibility in a general practice setting. We aim to include 400 women in total, with 100 recruited from each collaborating country. The participants are randomised to treatment with methenamine hippurate 1 g or placebo tablets two times per day for a treatment period of 6 months, followed by a drug-free follow-up period of 6 months. The primary outcome is number of antibiotic treatments for UTIs during the treatment period. The secondary outcomes include number of antibiotic treatments for UTIs during the follow-up period and self-reported symptom of severity and duration of UTI episodes. Differences in complications between the treatment groups are measured as safety outcomes. We also aim to investigate whether strain characteristics or phylogenetic subgroups of Escherichia coli present in the urine culture at inclusion have a modifying effect on the outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approvals are obtained in all participating countries. The results will be communicated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04077580); EudraCT: 2018-002235-15.

Remote investigation and assessment of vital signs (RIA-VS)-proof of concept for contactless estimation of blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation in patients with suspicion of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Vital signs are critical in assessing the severity and prognosis of infections, for example, COVID-19, influenza, sepsis, and pneumonia. This study aimed to evaluate a new method for rapid camera-based non-contact measurement of heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, and blood pressure. METHODS: Consecutive adult patients attending a hospital emergency department for suspected COVID-19 infection were invited to participate. Vital signs measured with a new camera-based method were compared to the corresponding standard reference methods. The camera device observed the patient's face for 30 s from ∼1 m. RESULTS: Between 1 April and 1 October 2020, 214 subjects were included in the trial, 131 female (61%) and 83 male (39%). The mean age was 44 years (range 18-81 years). The new camera-based device's vital signs measurements were, on average, very close to the gold standard but the random variation was larger than the reference methods. CONCLUSIONS: The principle of contactless measurement of blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation works, which is very promising. However, technical improvements to the equipment used in this study to reduce its random variability is required before clinical implementation. This will likely be a game changer once this is sorted out. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Universal Trial Number (UTN) U1111-1251-4114 and the ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04383457.

Decisions on antibiotic prescribing for suspected urinary tract infections in frail older adults: a qualitative study in four European countries.

BACKGROUND: a suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common reason to prescribe antibiotics in a frail older patient. Frequently, antibiotics are prescribed unnecessarily. To increase appropriate antibiotic use for UTIs through antibiotic stewardship interventions, we need to thoroughly understand the factors that contribute to these prescribing decisions. OBJECTIVES: (1) to obtain insight into factors contributing to antibiotic prescribing for suspected UTIs in frail older adults. (2) To develop an overarching model integrating these factors to guide the development of antibiotic stewardship interventions for UTIs in frail older adults. METHODS: we conducted an exploratory qualitative study with 61 semi-structured interviews in older adult care settings in Poland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. We interviewed physicians, nursing staff, patients and informal caregivers. RESULTS: participants described a chain of decisions by patients, caregivers and/or nursing staff preceding the ultimate decision to prescribe antibiotics by the physician. We identified five themes of influence: (1) the clinical situation and its complexity within the frail older patient, (2) diagnostic factors, such as asymptomatic bacteriuria, (3) knowledge (gaps) and attitude, (4) communication: interprofessional, and with patients and relatives and (5) context and organisation of care, including factors such as availability of antibiotics (over the counter), antibiotic stewardship efforts and factors concerning out-of-hours care. CONCLUSIONS: decision-making on suspected UTIs in frail older adults is a complex, multifactorial process. Due to the diverse international setting and stakeholder variety, we were able to provide a comprehensive overview of factors to guide the development of antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Socio-cultural implications for women's menstrual health in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Globally, experiences of menarche and subsequent menstruation are embedded in social and cultural beliefs, norms and practices. Menarche is an important developmental milestone in sexual and reproductive health (SRH) for females. Menarche is intertwined with socio-cultural norms, beliefs and practices, which can impact on women's ability to manage menstruation with dignity. This paper reviews the social and cultural factors that affect women's ability to effectively manage their menstrual health and hygiene (MHH) in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). METHODS: A scoping review was conducted following PRISMA scoping review guidelines and inclusion/exclusion criteria. An online search was conducted for peer-reviewed publications in Medline/OVID; Medline/PubMED; PsycINFO; CINAHL; Scopus and JSTOR, and Google Scholar. A search for grey literature was conducted in Google Scholar and websites of international and local organizations. Experts in the field also contributed additional references. Extracted data were summarised in an Excel spreadsheet. Searches were conducted between May and June, 2019, and then repeated in July, 2020. RESULTS: A total of 11 studies were included; 10 qualitative and one mixed methods study. Studies were conducted in Melanesian (n = 9), Polynesian (n = 1) and Micronesian (n = 1) PICTs. All 11 studies reported elements of societal and personal factors; ten studies reported evidence relating to interpersonal factors; nine studies reported elements relating to environmental factors; and two studies presented evidence linked to biological factors. Managing menstrual health with dignity is challenging for many women and girls because menstruation is associated with menstrual taboos and shame. CONCLUSION: This review found that the MHH experiences of women in PICTs are affected by social and cultural beliefs, norms and practices. Beliefs, norms and practices about menarche need to be incorporated in SRH planning, programs and education in order to be relevant to diverse village and urban settings.

The effect of a single visit to a health coach on perceived health in 50-year old residents in a high-income country - a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the one-year-effect of a single visit to a health coach on perceived health and exercise level in 50-year-old citizens. DESIGN: One factor design randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Participants were randomly selected from the Swedish Population Register. SUBJECTS: 50-year-old residents of the town of Alingsås, Sweden (n = 105). INTERVENTION: The intervention group (n = 52) received a single one-hour visit to a health coach. The control group (n = 53) received no intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change over 12 months in the SF-36 dimensions physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, role-emotional, mental health, physical component summary and mental component summary. Reported health transition at follow-up. Change in exercise level. RESULTS: The control group changed their perceived health more favourable than the intervention group in the following dimensions of the SF-36; general health (p = 0.0055-0.025), role-emotional (p = 0.034-0.040) and mental component summary (p = 0.033-0.073). CONCLUSION: A single visit to a health coach does not improve perceived health or exercise-level in 50-year-old citizens. On the contrary it may make perceived health worse.Key pointsResearch on health coaching has emerged in the last 20 years, but is diverse and the characteristics of a successful health coaching intervention are still unknown.There is a lack of randomised controlled trials evaluating long-term effectiveness of health coaching.This randomised controlled trial concludes that a single visit to a health coach does not improve, but rather impairs, perceived health in 50-year olds.

Disparities in surgical outcomes for low socioeconomic status patients in Australia.

BACKGROUND: There are disparities in surgical outcomes for patients of low socioeconomic status globally, including in countries with universal healthcare systems. There is limited data on the impact of low socioeconomic status on surgical outcomes in Australia. This study examines surgical outcomes by both self-reported unemployment and neighbourhood level socioeconomic status in Australia. METHODS: A retrospective administrative data review was conducted at a tertiary care centre over a 10-year period (2008-2018) including all adult surgical patients. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year, age, sex and Charlson Comorbidity Index was performed. RESULTS: 106 197 patients underwent a surgical procedure in the decade examined. The overall adverse event rates were mortality (1.13%), total postoperative complications (10.9%), failure to rescue (0.75%) and return to theatre (4.31%). Following multivariable testing, unemployed and low socioeconomic patients had a higher risk of postoperative mortality (OR 2.06 (1.50-2.82), OR 1.37 (1.15-1.64)), all complications (OR 1.43 (1.31-1.56), OR 1.21 (1.14-1.28)), failure to rescue (OR 2.03 (1.39-2.95), OR 1.38 (1.11-1.72)) and return to theatre (OR 1.42 (1.27-1.59), OR 1.24 (1.14-1.36)) (P < 0.005 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Despite universal healthcare, there are disparities in surgical adverse events for patients of low socioeconomic status in Australia. Disparities in surgical outcomes can stem from three facets: a patient's access to healthcare (the severity of disease at the time of presentation), variation in perioperative care delivery, and social determinants of health. Further work is required to pinpoint why these disparities are present and to evaluate the impact of strategies that aim to reduce disparities.

What is the optimal strategy for managing primary care patients with an uncomplicated acute sore throat? Comparing the consequences of nine different strategies using a compilation of previous studies.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying optimal strategies for managing patients of any age with varying risk of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) attending for an apparently uncomplicated acute sore throat, also clarifying the role of point-of-care testing (POCT) for presence of group A beta-haemolytic Streptococcus (GABHS) in these settings. DESIGN: We compared outcomes of adhering to nine different strategies for managing these patients in primary healthcare. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The nine strategies, similar to guidelines from several countries, were tested against two validation data sets being constructs from seven prior studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportion of patients requiring a POCT, prescribed antibiotics, prescribed antibiotics having GABHS and finally having GABHS not prescribed antibiotics, if different strategies had been adhered to. RESULTS: In a scenario with high risk of ARF, adhering to existing guidelines would risk many patients ill from GABHS left without antibiotics. Hence, using a POCT on all of these patients minimised their risk. For low-risk patients, it is reasonable to only consider antibiotics if the patient has more than low pain levels despite adequate analgesia, 3-4 Centor scores (or 2-3 FeverPAIN scores or 3-4 McIsaac scores) and a POCT confirming the presence of GABHS. This would require testing only 10%-15% of patients and prescribing antibiotics to only 3.5%-6.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with high or low risk for ARF needs to be managed very differently. POCT can play an important role in safely targeting the use of antibiotics for patients with an apparently uncomplicated acute sore throat.

Disparities in Advanced Peripheral Arterial Disease Presentation by Socioeconomic Status.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often synergistically lead to foot ulceration, infection, and gangrene, which may require lower limb amputation. Worldwide there are disparities in the rates of advanced presentation of PAD for vulnerable populations. This study examined rates of advanced presentations of PAD for unemployed patients, those residing in low Index of Economic Resources (IER) areas, and those in rural areas of Australia. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted at a regional tertiary care centre (2008-2018). To capture advanced presentations of PAD, the proportion of operative patients presenting with complications (gangrene/ulcers), the proportion of surgeries that are amputations, and the rate of emergency to elective surgeries were examined. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year, age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and sociodemographic variables was performed. RESULTS: In the period examined, 1115 patients underwent a surgical procedure for PAD. Forty-nine per cent of patients had diabetes. Following multivariable testing, the rates of those requiring amputations were higher for unemployed (OR 1.99(1.05-3.79), p = 0.036) and rural patients (OR 1.83(1.21-2.76), p = 0.004). The rate of presentation with complications was higher for unemployed (OR 7.2(2.13-24.3), p = 0.001), disadvantaged IER (OR 1.91(1.2-3.04), p = 0.007), and rural patients (OR 1.73(1.13-2.65), p = 0.012). The rate of emergency to elective surgery was higher for unemployed (OR 2.32(1.18-4.54), p = 0.015) and rural patients (OR 1.92(1.29-2.86), p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study found disparities in metrics capturing delayed presentations of PAD: higher rates of presentations with complications, higher amputation rates, and increased rates of emergency to elective surgery, for patients of low socioeconomic status and those residing in rural areas. This suggests barriers to appropriate, effective, and timely care exists for these patients.

Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in open abdomen patients for entero-atmospheric fistula.

BACKGROUND: Laparostomy or Open Abdomen (OA) has matured into an effective strategy in the management of abdominal catastrophe. Single prognostic factors have been identified in a previous systematic review regarding entero-atmospheric fistula (EAF). Unfortunately, no prognostic multivariable model for EAF exist. The aim was to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model from a retrospective cohort study involving three hospital's databases. METHODS: Fifty-seven variables were evaluated to develop a multivariable model. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for on a developmental data set from two hospitals. Receiver operator characteristics analysis with area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were performed on the developmental data set (internal validation) as well as on an additional validation data set from another hospital (external validation). RESULTS: Five-hundred and forty-eight patients managed with an OA. Two variables remained in the multivariable prediction model for EAF. The AUC for EAF on internal validation were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.58-0.86) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.67-0.92) on external validation. CONCLUSIONS: A multivariable prediction model for EAF was externally validated and an easy-to-use probability nomogram was constructed using the two predictor variables. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III; prognostic.

Achieving High Breast Cancer Survival for Women in Rural and Remote Areas.

BACKGROUND: Significant improvements in breast cancer survival have been made in the past few decades in many developed countries including Australia with a five-year relative survival of 90%. The aim of the present study is to obtain a brief estimate of the relative importance of demographic factors such as rurality, socio-economic standard and ethnicity versus traditional risk factors for women diagnosed with breast cancer in Far North Queensland, Australia. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal study of all women diagnosed with their first episode of breast cancer in 1999-2013 in Far North Queensland, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with mortality for women with any type of breast cancer (in situ or invasive) and for women with invasive cancer. Life tables were used to assess five and ten-year absolute survival. Standard linear regression and binary logistic regression were used to identify any association between demographic factors and late presentation. RESULTS: Five and ten-year absolute survival was 0.90 and 0.86 respectively. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status, remoteness of area of residence, and socioeconomic status were not associated with more advanced disease at presentation or increased risk of breast cancer death. Only traditional risk factors such as increased tumour size, absence of progesterone receptor, high tumour grade and presence of metastasis in axillary lymph nodes were associated with increased risk of breast cancer death. CONCLUSION: The effect of the classical risk factors on breast cancer mortality outweighs the effects of demographic factors. The fact that ethnicity, remoteness and socioeconomic status is not associated with late presentation or breast cancer death suggests that given appropriate resources it may be possible to close the gap of inequalities in breast cancer.