Modeling the thermochemistry of nitrogen-containing compounds via group additivity.

First-principles based kinetic modeling is essential to gain insight into the governing chemistry of nitrogen-containing compounds over a wide range of technologically important processes, e.g. pyrolysis, oxidation and combustion. It also enables the development of predictive, fundamental models key to improving understanding of the influence of nitrogen-containing compounds present as impurities or process additives, considering safety, operability and quality of the product streams. A prerequisite for the generation of detailed fundamental kinetic models is the availability of accurate thermodynamic properties. To address the scarcity of thermodynamic properties for nitrogen-containing compounds, a consistent set of 91 group additive values and three non-nearest-neighbor interactions has been determined from a dataset of CBS-QB3 calculations for 300 species, including 104 radicals. This dataset contains a wide range of nitrogen-containing functionalities, i.e. imine, nitrile, nitro, nitroso, nitrite, nitrate and azo functional groups. The group additivity model enables the approximation of the standard enthalpy of formation and standard entropy at 298 K as well as the standard heat capacities over a large temperature range, i.e. 300-1500 K. For a test set of 27 nitrogen-containing compounds, the group additivity model succeeds in approximating the ab initio calculated values for the standard enthalpy of formation with a MAD of 2.3 kJ mol-1. The MAD for the standard entropy and heat capacity is lower than 4 and 2 J mol-1 K-1, respectively. For a test set of 11 nitrogen-containing compounds, the MAD between experimental and group additivity approximated values for the standard enthalpy of formation amounts to 2.8 kJ mol-1.

Population-wide active case finding as a strategy to end TB.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite available tools for preventing, finding, and treating TB, many people with TB remain undiagnosed. In high-incidence settings, TB transmission is ubiquitous within the community, affecting both high-risk groups and the general population. In fact, most people who develop TB come from the general population. To disrupt the chain of transmission that sustains the TB epidemic, we need to find and treat everyone with infectious TB as early as possible, including those with minimal symptoms or subclinical TB who are unlikely to present for care. Important elements of an effective active case-finding strategy include effective social mobilisation and community engagement, using sensitive screening tools that can be used at scale, and embracing population-wide screening in high-incidence ('hot spot') areas. We require a better description of feasible delivery models, 'real-life' impact and cost effectiveness to enable wider implementation.

Modeling the kinetics of hydrogen abstraction reactions in nitrogen-containing compounds via group additivity.

New group additivity values are presented to enable the modeling of a broad range of intermolecular hydrogen abstraction reactions involving nitrogen-containing compounds. From a dataset of 316 reaction rate coefficients calculated at the CBS-QB3 level of theory in the high-pressure limit, 76 group additivity values and 14 resonance corrections have been estimated. The influence of substituents on both the attacked hydrogen and attacking radical, being a carbon or nitrogen atom, has been investigated systematically. The new group additivity models can be applied to approximate the Arrhenius parameters of hydrogen abstraction reactions of nitrogen-containing compounds by hydrogen atoms, carbon-centered and nitrogen-centered radicals in the 300-1800 K temperature range. Complementary to the group additivity model, correlations for the tunneling coefficients, which depend on both the temperature and the activation energy of the reaction in the exothermic direction, have been generated. The good performance of the new group additivity schemes has been demonstrated using a test set of reactions. At 1000 K, the rate coefficients for all test set reactions are approximated on average within a factor of 1.45, 1.47 and 1.34, for the hydrogen abstractions with a reactive center of the type H-H-N, N-H-N and C-H-N respectively.

Prevalence and burden of difficult-to-treat and severe asthma in Australia: A national population survey.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most evidence about difficult-to-treat and severe asthma (DTTA) comes from clinical trials and registries. We aimed to identify people with DTTA from a large nationally representative asthma population and describe their characteristics and healthcare utilization compared with people whose asthma was not 'difficult-to-treat'. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of Australians aged ≥18 years with current asthma from large web-based survey panels. Enrolment was stratified by gender, age-group and state/territory based on national population data for people with asthma. Difficult-to-treat or severe asthma was defined by poor symptom control, exacerbations and/or oral corticosteroid/biologic use despite medium/high-dose inhaled therapy. Outcomes included exacerbations, healthcare utilization, multimorbidity, quality of life and coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19)-related behaviour. Weighted data were analysed using SAS version 9.4. RESULTS: The survey was conducted in February-March 2021. The weighted sample comprised 6048 adults with current asthma (average age 47.3 ± SD 18.1 years, 59.9% female), with 1313 (21.7%) satisfying ≥1 DTTA criteria. Of these, 50.4% had very poorly controlled symptoms (Asthma Control Test ≤15), 36.2% were current smokers, and 85.4% had ≥1 additional chronic condition, most commonly anxiety/depression. More than twice as many participants with DTTA versus non-DTTA had ≥1 urgent general practitioner (GP) visit (61.4% vs. 27.5%, OR 4.8 [4.2-5.5, p < 0.0001]), or ≥1 emergency room visit (41.9% vs. 17.9%, OR 3.8 [3.3-4.4, p < 0.0001]) in the previous 12 months. CONCLUSION: Our findings emphasize the burden of uncontrolled symptoms, current smoking, multimorbidity and healthcare utilization in people with DTTA in the community, who may be under-represented in registries or clinical trials.

Investigating the brain's neurochemical profile at midlife in relation to dementia risk factors.

Changes in the brain's physiology in Alzheimer's disease are thought to occur early in the disease's trajectory. In this study our aim was to investigate the brain's neurochemical profile in a midlife cohort in relation to risk factors for future dementia using single voxel proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Participants in the multi-site PREVENT-Dementia study (age range 40-59 year old) underwent 3T magnetic resonance spectroscopy with the spectroscopy voxel placed in the posterior cingulate/precuneus region. Using LCModel, we quantified the absolute concentrations of myo-inositol, total N-acetylaspartate, total creatine, choline, glutathione and glutamate-glutamine for 406 participants (mean age 51.1; 65.3% female). Underlying partial volume effects were accounted for by applying a correction for the presence of cerebrospinal fluid in the magnetic resonance spectroscopy voxel. We investigated how metabolite concentrations related to apolipoprotein ɛ4 genotype, dementia family history, a risk score (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Incidence of Dementia -CAIDE) for future dementia including non-modifiable and potentially-modifiable factors and dietary patterns (adherence to Mediterranean diet). Dementia family history was associated with decreased total N-acetylaspartate and no differences were found between apolipoprotein ɛ4 carriers and non-carriers. A higher Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia score related to higher myo-inositol, choline, total creatine and glutamate-glutamine, an effect which was mainly driven by older age and a higher body mass index. Greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with lower choline, myo-inositol and total creatine; these effects did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. The observed associations suggest that at midlife the brain demonstrates subtle neurochemical changes in relation to both inherited and potentially modifiable risk factors for future dementia.

Mechanical stress combines with planar polarised patterning during metaphase to orient embryonic epithelial cell divisions.

The planar orientation of cell division (OCD) is important for epithelial morphogenesis and homeostasis. Here, we ask how mechanics and antero-posterior (AP) patterning combine to influence the first divisions after gastrulation in the Drosophila embryonic epithelium. We analyse hundreds of cell divisions and show that stress anisotropy, notably from compressive forces, can reorient division directly in metaphase. Stress anisotropy influences the OCD by imposing metaphase cell elongation, despite mitotic rounding, and overrides interphase cell elongation. In strongly elongated cells, the mitotic spindle adapts its length to, and hence its orientation is constrained by, the cell long axis. Alongside mechanical cues, we find a tissue-wide bias of the mitotic spindle orientation towards AP-patterned planar polarised Myosin-II. This spindle bias is lost in an AP-patterning mutant. Thus, a patterning-induced mitotic spindle orientation bias overrides mechanical cues in mildly elongated cells, whereas in strongly elongated cells the spindle is constrained close to the high stress axis.

Identifying and costing common gaps in Central and West Africa pharmaceutical regulation.

Background: Regulatory systems strengthening is crucial for catalyzing access to safe and effective medical products and health technologies (MPHT) for all. Identifying and addressing common regulatory gaps through regional approaches could be instrumental for the newly incepted African Medicine Agency. Aims: This original study sheds light on common gaps among 10 national regulatory authorities (NRAs) and ways to address them regionally. Objectives: The study used NRA self-assessment outcomes to identify common gaps in four critical regulatory pillars and estimate the cost of addressing them from regional perspectives that aimed at raising the maturity level of regulatory institutions. Methods: A cross-sectional study, using the WHO Global Benchmarking Tool (GBT), was conducted between 2020 and 2021 with five NRAs from ECCAS and ECOWAS member states that use French and Spanish as lingua franca. Results: The 10 NRAs operated in a non-formal-to-reactive approach (ML1-2), which hinders their ability to ensure the quality of MPHT and respond appropriately to public health emergencies. Common gaps were identified in four critical regulatory pillars-good regulatory practices, preparedness for public health emergencies, quality management systems, and substandard and falsified medical products-with overall cost to address gaps estimated at US$3.3 million. Contribution: We elaborated a reproducible method to strengthen regulatory systems at a regional level to improve equitable access to assured-quality MPHT. Our bottom-up approach could be utilized by RECs to address common gaps through common efforts.

Polarised cell intercalation during Drosophila axis extension is robust to an orthogonal pull by the invaginating mesoderm.

As tissues grow and change shape during animal development, they physically pull and push on each other, and these mechanical interactions can be important for morphogenesis. During Drosophila gastrulation, mesoderm invagination temporally overlaps with the convergence and extension of the ectodermal germband; the latter is caused primarily by Myosin II-driven polarised cell intercalation. Here, we investigate the impact of mesoderm invagination on ectoderm extension, examining possible mechanical and mechanotransductive effects on Myosin II recruitment and polarised cell intercalation. We find that the germband ectoderm is deformed by the mesoderm pulling in the orthogonal direction to germband extension (GBE), showing mechanical coupling between these tissues. However, we do not find a significant change in Myosin II planar polarisation in response to mesoderm invagination, nor in the rate of junction shrinkage leading to neighbour exchange events. We conclude that the main cellular mechanism of axis extension, polarised cell intercalation, is robust to the mesoderm invagination pull. We find, however, that mesoderm invagination slows down the rate of anterior-posterior cell elongation that contributes to axis extension, counteracting the tension from the endoderm invagination, which pulls along the direction of GBE.

MINocyclinE to Reduce inflammation and blood-brain barrier leakage in small Vessel diseAse (MINERVA): A phase II, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled experimental medicine trial.

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is a common cause of stroke/vascular dementia with few effective treatments. Neuroinflammation and increased blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability may influence pathogenesis. In rodent models, minocycline reduced inflammation/BBB permeability. We determined whether minocycline had a similar effect in patients with SVD. METHODS: MINERVA was a single-center, phase II, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Forty-four participants with moderate-to-severe SVD took minocycline or placebo for 3 months. Co-primary outcomes were microglial signal (determined using 11C-PK11195 positron emission tomography) and BBB permeability (using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI). RESULTS: Forty-four participants were recruited between September 2019 and June 2022. Minocycline had no effect on 11C-PK11195 binding (relative risk [RR] 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98-1.04), or BBB permeability (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.91-1.03). Serum inflammatory markers were not affected. DISCUSSION: 11C-PK11195 binding and increased BBB permeability are present in SVD; minocycline did not reduce either process. Whether these pathophysiological mechanisms are disease-causing remains unclear. INTERNATIONAL CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRY PORTAL IDENTIFIER: ISRCTN15483452 HIGHLIGHTS: We found focal areas of increased microglial signal and increased blood-brain barrier permeability in patients with small vessel disease. Minocycline treatment was not associated with a change in these processes measured using advanced neuroimaging. Blood-brain barrier permeability was dynamic but MRI-derived measurements correlated well with CSF/serum albumin ratio. Advanced neuroimaging is a feasible outcome measure for mechanistic clinical trials.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

Azithromycin Induced Asthma Remission in Adults With Persistent Uncontrolled Asthma: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Asthma remission is a potential treatment goal. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does adding azithromycin to standard therapy in patients with persistent uncontrolled asthma induce remission compared with placebo? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This secondary analysis used data from the AMAZES clinical trial-a double-blind placebo-controlled trial that evaluated the safety and efficacy of azithromycin on asthma exacerbations. The primary remission definition (referred to as clinical remission) was zero exacerbations and zero oral corticosteroids during the previous 6 months evaluated at 12 months and a 5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire score ≤ 1 at 12 months. Secondary remission definitions included clinical remission plus lung function criteria (postbronchodilator FEV1 ≥ 80% or postbronchodilator FEV1 ≤ 5% decline from baseline) and complete remission (sputum eosinophil count < 3% plus the aforementioned criteria). Sensitivity analyses explored the robustness of primary and secondary remission definitions. The predictors of clinical remission were identified. RESULTS: A total of 335 participants (41.5% male; median age, 61.01 years; quartile 1-3, 51.03-68.73) who completed the 12-month treatment period were included in the analysis. Twelve months of treatment with azithromycin induced asthma remission in a subgroup of patients, and a significantly higher proportion in the azithromycin arm achieved both clinical remission (50.6% vs 38.9%; P = .032) and clinical remission plus lung function criteria (50.8% vs 37.1%; P = .029) compared with placebo, respectively. In addition, a higher proportion of the azithromycin group achieved complete remission (23% vs 13.7%; P = .058). Sensitivity analyses supported these findings. Baseline factors (eg, better asthma-related quality of life, absence of oral corticosteroid burst in the previous year) predicted the odds of achieving clinical remission. Azithromycin induced remission in both eosinophilic and noneosinophilic asthma. INTERPRETATION: Adults with persistent symptomatic asthma achieved a higher remission rate when treated with azithromycin. Remission on treatment may be an achievable treatment target in moderate/severe asthma, and future studies should consider remission as an outcome measure.

Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5).

BACKGROUND: The acute health effects of short-term (hours to days) exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5) have been well documented; however, the global mortality burden attributable to this exposure has not been estimated. We aimed to estimate the global, regional, and urban mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM2·5 and the spatiotemporal variations in this burden from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: We combined estimated global daily PM2·5 concentrations, annual population counts, country-level mortality rates, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions to estimate the mortality attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure from 2000 to 2019, in the continental regions and in 13 189 urban centres worldwide at a spatial resolution of 0·1°â€ˆ× 0·1°. We tested the robustness of our mortality estimates with different theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, lag effects, and exposure-response functions. FINDINGS: Approximately 1 million (95% CI 690 000-1·3 million) premature deaths per year from 2000 to 2019 were attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure, representing 2·08% (1·41-2·75) of total global deaths or 17 (11-22) premature deaths per 100 000 population. Annually, 0·23 million (0·15 million-0·30 million) deaths attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure were in urban areas, constituting 22·74% of the total global deaths attributable to this cause and accounting for 2·30% (1·56-3·05) of total global deaths in urban areas. The sensitivity analyses showed that our worldwide estimates of mortality attributed to short-term PM2·5 exposure were robust. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to PM2·5 contributes a substantial global mortality burden, particularly in Asia and Africa, as well as in global urban areas. Our results highlight the importance of mitigation strategies to reduce short-term exposure to air pollution and its adverse effects on human health. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

COPD in Never-Smokers: BOLD Australia Study.

Purpose: Tobacco smoking is the major risk factor for COPD, and it is common for other risk factors in never-smokers to be overlooked. We examined the prevalence of COPD among never-smokers in Australia and identified associated risk factors. Methods: We used data from the Australia Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study, a cross-section of people aged ≥40 years from six sites. Participants completed interviews and post-bronchodilator spirometry. COPD was primarily defined as an FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and secondarily as the ratio less than the lower limit of normal (LLN). Results: The prevalence of COPD in the 1656 never-smokers who completed the study was 10.5% (95% CI: 9.1-12.1%) [ratio

Revisiting Transfer Learning Method for Tuberculosis Diagnosis.

Transfer learning (TL) has been proven to be a good strategy for solving domain-specific problems in many deep learning (DL) applications. Typically, in TL, a pre-trained DL model is used as a feature extractor and the extracted features are then fed to a newly trained classifier as the model head. In this study, we propose a new ensemble approach of transfer learning that uses multiple neural network classifiers at once in the model head. We compared the classification results of the proposed ensemble approach with the direct approach of several popular models, namely VGG-16, ResNet-50, and MobileNet, on two publicly available tuberculosis datasets, i.e., Montgomery County (MC) and Shenzhen (SZ) datasets. Moreover, we also compared the results when a fully pre-trained DL model was used for feature extraction versus the cases in which the features were obtained from a middle layer of the pre-trained DL model. Several metrics derived from confusion matrix results were used, namely the accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SNS), specificity (SPC), precision (PRC), and F1-score. We concluded that the proposed ensemble approach outperformed the direct approach. Best result was achieved by ResNet-50 when the features were extracted from a middle layer with an accuracy of 91.2698% on MC dataset.Clinical Relevance- The proposed ensemble approach could increase the detection accuracy of 7-8% for Montgomery County dataset and 4-5% for Shenzhen dataset.

mHealth application for improving treatment outcomes for patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Vietnam: an economic evaluation protocol for the V-SMART trial.

INTRODUCTION: The Strengthen the Management of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Vietnam (V-SMART) trial is a randomised controlled trial of using mobile health (mHealth) technologies to improve adherence to medications and management of adverse events (AEs) in people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) undergoing treatment in Vietnam. This economic evaluation seeks to quantify the cost-effectiveness of this mHealth intervention from a healthcare provider and societal perspective. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The V-SMART trial will recruit 902 patients treated for MDR-TB across seven participating provinces in Vietnam. Participants in both intervention and control groups will receive standard community-based therapy for MDR-TB. Participants in the intervention group will also have a purpose-designed App installed on their smartphones to report AEs to health workers and to facilitate timely management of AEs. This economic evaluation will compare the costs and health outcomes between the intervention group (mHealth) and the control group (standard of care). Costs associated with delivering the intervention and health service utilisation will be recorded, as well as patient out-of-pocket costs. The health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of study participants will be captured using the 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36) questionnaire and used to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) will be based on the primary outcome (proportion of patients with treatment success after 24 months) and QALYs gained. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to test the robustness of the ICERs. A budget impact analysis will be conducted from a payer perspective to provide an estimate of the total budget required to scale-up delivery of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for the study was granted by the University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee (2019/676), the Scientific Committee of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Vietnam (08/QD-HDQL-NAFOSTED) and the Institutional Review Board of the National Lung Hospital, Vietnam (13/19/CT-HDDD). Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12620000681954.

Respiratory Symptoms, Disease Burden, and Quality of Life in Australian Adults According to GOLD Spirometry Grades: Data from the BOLD Australia Study.

Purpose: Population data on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are often based on patient-reported diagnoses of COPD, emphysema or chronic bronchitis, without spirometry. We aimed to investigate the relationship between health burden, quality of life and severity of airway obstruction in Australian adults aged ≥40 years. Methods: We used data from the BOLD Australia study, which included randomly selected adults aged ≥40 years from six study sites to reflect the sociodemographic and geographic diversity of the Australian population (n = 3522). Participants with post-bronchodilator airflow limitation (ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second FEV1 to forced vital capacity <0.7) were grouped by GOLD spirometry grades 1-4. Quality of life was assessed with Short Form 12 (SF-12) Health Survey Questionnaire. Health burden was assessed as lost time off work or social activities, and healthcare utilization. Results: Of the study sample, 2969 participants did not have airflow limitation, 294 (8.4%) were classified as GOLD Grade 1, 212 (6.0%) as GOLD 2 and 43 (1.2%) as GOLD 3-4. Participants with higher GOLD grades had more respiratory symptoms, more comorbidities and greater burden than those with lower GOLD grades. The scores of mental and physical subscales of SF-12 were lower, indicating worse quality of life, from the no airflow limitation group to the GOLD 3-4 group (P = 0.03 and P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Greater airflow limitation is associated with greater burden and poor quality of life. Interventions to prevent, or reduce the level of, airflow limitation will reduce the symptom burden and improve quality of life for patients.

Risk factors and clinical characteristics of breathlessness in Australian adults: Data from the BOLD Australia study.

BACKGROUND: Breathlessness is a common symptom related to a significant health burden. However, the association of breathlessness with clinical characteristics, especially objective pulmonary test results is scarce. We aimed to identify the characteristics independently associated with breathlessness in Australian adults. METHOD: The analysis used data from BOLD Australia, a cross-sectional study that included randomly selected adults aged ≥40 years from six sites in Australia. Clinical characteristics and spirometry results were compared for breathlessness (modified Medical Research Council [mMRC] grade ≥2). RESULTS: Among all respondents (n = 3321), 252 participants (7.6%) reported breathlessness. The main univariate associations were obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, heart diseases and being Indigenous Australians (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.78, 5.20, 3.77 and 4.38, respectively). Participants with breathlessness had lower pre-and post-bronchodilator lung function than those without. Impaired spirometry results including FVC or FEV1 below 80% predicted, or FEV1/FVC < LLN were independently associated with breathlessness (adjusted ORs = 2.66, 2.94 and 2.34, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Breathlessness is common among Australian adults and is independently associated with obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, heart diseases, being Indigenous Australians, and impaired spirometry. Multi-disciplinary assessment and comprehensive investigation is needed in clinical practice to address the many factors associated with breathlessness in the population.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

Finding and treating both tuberculosis disease and latent infection during population-wide active case finding for tuberculosis elimination.

In recognition of the high rates of undetected tuberculosis in the community, the World Health Organization (WHO) encourages targeted active case finding (ACF) among "high-risk" populations. While this strategy has led to increased case detection in these populations, the epidemic impact of these interventions has not been demonstrated. Historical data suggest that population-wide (untargeted) ACF can interrupt transmission in high-incidence settings, but implementation remains lacking, despite recent advances in screening tools. The reservoir of latent infection-affecting up to a quarter of the global population -complicates elimination efforts by acting as a pool from which future tuberculosis cases may emerge, even after all active cases have been treated. A holistic case finding strategy that addresses both active disease and latent infection is likely to be the optimal approach for rapidly achieving sustainable progress toward TB elimination in a durable way, but safety and cost effectiveness have not been demonstrated. Sensitive, symptom-agnostic community screening, combined with effective tuberculosis treatment and prevention, should eliminate all infectious cases in the community, whilst identifying and treating people with latent infection will also eliminate tomorrow's tuberculosis cases. If real strides toward global tuberculosis elimination are to be made, bold strategies are required using the best available tools and a long horizon for cost-benefit assessment.

Causes of hypercapnic respiratory failure: a population-based case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: There are no population-based data on the relative importance of specific causes of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). We sought to quantify the associations between hospitalisation with HRF and potential antecedent causes including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), obstructive sleep apnea, and congestive cardiac failure. We used data on the prevalence of these conditions to estimate the population attributable fraction for each cause. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted among residents aged ≥ 40 years from the Liverpool local government area in Sydney, Australia. Cases were identified from hospital records based on PaCO2 > 45 mmHg. Controls were randomly selected from the study population using a cluster sampling design. We collected self-reported data on medication use and performed spirometry, limited-channel sleep studies, venous sampling for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, and sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) measurements. Logistic regression analyses were performed using directed acyclic graphs to identify covariates. RESULTS: We recruited 42 cases and 105 controls. HRF was strongly associated with post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction, elevated NT-proBNP levels, reduced SNIP measurements and self-reported opioid medication use. There were no differences in the apnoea-hypopnea index or oxygen desaturation index between groups. COPD had the highest population attributable fraction (42%, 95% confidence interval 18% to 59%). CONCLUSIONS: COPD, congestive cardiac failure, and self-reported use of opioid medications, but not obstructive sleep apnea, are important causes of HRF among adults over 40 years old. No single cause accounts for the majority of cases based on the population attributable fraction.