Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Trends in thyroid function testing, neck ultrasound, thyroid fine needle aspiration, and thyroidectomies in North-eastern Italy.

PURPOSE: Evidence of an increased diagnostic pressure on thyroid has emerged over the past decades. This study aimed to provide estimates of a wide spectrum of surveillance indicators for thyroid dysfunctions and diseases in Italy. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted in North-eastern Italy, including 11.7 million residents (20% of the total Italian population). Prescriptions for TSH testing, neck ultrasound or thyroid fine needle aspiration (FNA), surgical procedures, and drugs for hypo- or hyperthyroidism were extracted from regional health databases. Proportions and rates of selected examinations were calculated from 2010 to 2017, overall and by sex, calendar years, age, and region. RESULTS: Between 2010 and 2017 in North-eastern Italy, 24.5% of women and 9.8% of men received at least one TSH test yearly. In 2017, 7.1% of women and 1.5% of men were prescribed drugs for thyroid dysfunction, 94.6% of whom for hypothyroidism. Neck ultrasound examinations were performed yearly in 6.9% of women and 4.6% of men, with a nearly two-fold variation between areas. Thyroid FNA and thyroidectomies were three-fold more frequent in women (394 and 85 per 100,000) than in men (128 and 29 per 100,000) with a marked variation between areas. Both procedures decreased consistently after 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this population-based study describe recent variations over time and between surrounding areas of indicators of 'diagnostic pressure' on thyroid in North-eastern Italy. These results emphasize the need to harmonize practices and to reduce some procedures (e.g., neck ultrasound and total thyroidectomies) in certain areas.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15-74 years in 1985-2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. RESULTS: The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon-rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.

Cancer prevalence in United States, Nordic Countries, Italy, Australia, and France: an analysis of geographic variability.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to quantitatively assess the geographic heterogeneity of cancer prevalence in selected Western Countries and to explore the associations between its determinants. METHODS: For 20 cancer sites, 5-year cancer prevalence, incidence, and survival were observed and age standardised for the mid 2000s in the United States, Nordic European Countries, Italy, Australia, and France. RESULTS: In Italy, 5-year crude prevalence for all cancers was 1.9% in men and 1.7% in women, while it was ∼1.5% in all other countries and sexes. After adjustment for the different age distribution of the populations, cancer prevalence in the United States was higher (20% in men and 10% in women) than elsewhere. For all cancers combined, the geographic heterogeneities were limited, though relevant for specific cancers (e.g., prostate, showing >30% higher prevalence in the United States, or lung, showing >50% higher prevalence in USA women than in other countries). For all countries, the correlations between differences of prevalence and differences of incidence were >0.9, while prevalence and survival were less consistently correlated. CONCLUSION: Geographic differences and magnitude of crude cancer prevalence were more strongly associated with incidence rates, influenced by population ageing, than with survival rates. These estimates will be helpful in allocating appropriate resources.

Effects of three distinct protocols of fitness training on body composition, strength and blood lactate.

AIM: Circuit training is a very popular methodology in fitness program because it allows to join together cardiovascular and strength training. The purpose of this study was to determine the physiological effects of circuit training performed at different intensities on body composition, strength and blood lactate in middle-aged subjects who had recently undergone only minimum physical training. METHODS: Forty participants (aged 50-65) were assigned to a control group (CG) or to one of the three exercise treatment groups: Endurance Group (EG), Circuit-Low Intensity Group (CLG), Circuit-High Intensity Group (CHG). The three groups exercised three times per week, 50 min per session for 12 wk using EG (N.=10), CLG (N.=10) or CHG (N.=10). Pre- and post-training, participants RESULTS: Among the three groups, CHG showed the greatest reductions in body weight (BW), percentage of fat mass (FM), waistline, blood lactate (produced at 100 Watt during submaximal test) and greater improvement in 6RM in horizontal leg press and underhand cable pulldowns. CONCLUSION: The results obtained favored the conclusion that high-intensity exercise combined with endurance training in the circuit training technique is more effective than endurance training alone or low intensity circuit training in improving body composition, blood lactate, moreover CHG results in significantly greater strength increase compared to traditional circuit training.

Long-term outcome and risk of oesophageal cancer after surgery for achalasia.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have reported very long-term results after surgery for oesophageal achalasia. The aim of the present study was to assess long-term subjective outcomes after cardiomyotomy and partial fundoplication, focusing specifically on the risk of oesophageal cancer. METHODS: Clinical and demographic information from 228 consecutive patients who had surgery between 1980 and 1992 was extracted from hospital files. Survival status and dates of death were obtained from census offices. Causes of death were obtained from public registries and compared with those of the general population. Symptoms were assessed by means of a questionnaire and endoscopy results were scrutinized. RESULTS: Among 226 patients who could be traced, 182 of 184 survivors were contacted and the cause of death established for 41 of 42 patients. At a median follow-up of 18.3 years, almost 90 per cent of patients were satisfied with the treatment. Four had developed squamous cell oesophageal carcinoma 2, 8, 13 and 18 years after surgery, one of whom was still alive. The standardized mortality ratio for oesophageal carcinoma was significantly higher than expected in men. CONCLUSION: Cardiomyotomy and partial fundoplication is an excellent long-term treatment for achalasia. Men with achalasia have an increased risk of developing oesophageal cancer.

Quality control of automatically defined cancer cases by the automated registration system of the Venetian Tumour Registry. Quality control of cancer cases automatically registered.

BACKGROUND: In the Venetian Tumour Registry a substantial quota of cases (55%) is accepted using an algorithm that automatically evaluates diagnostic evidence: this study aims at assessing the reliability of the information produced in this way. METHODS: A reabstraction study was conducted, which put a stratified sample of 1539 automatically accepted cases through a double-blind manual revision. RESULTS: A significantly higher proportion of prevalent cases were found among breast, prostate and larynx cancer cases without microscopic confirmation, while there is a clear strong inverse relationship between the number of concordant diagnostic sources and the proportions of discordant diagnoses: cases based only on a single cytology record are particularly unreliable. A small number of multiple cancers are not detected because of one of the rules applied. CONCLUSION: The overall proportion of incorrect decisions is not high and similar to those reported by other registries, but errors are correlated to the diagnostic evidence pattern. As a further check, we decided to revise clinical cases for the three sites mentioned manually, in order to reduce the numbers proportion of both prevalent cases, and all cytology-based diagnoses, so as to reduce the number of 'false positives'. Coverage of hospital discharge source has been extended in order to decrease the proportion of cases based only on pathology records.

Population-based incidence and mortality cancer trends (1986-1997) from the network of Italian cancer registries.

The objective of this study was to analyse incidence and mortality cancer trends in the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (about 8,000,000 inhabitants) during the period 1986-1997. Included were 525,645 newly diagnosed cancers and 269,902 cancer deaths (subjects > 14 years). Joinpoints (points in time where trend significantly changes from linearity) were found and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) used to summarize tendencies. Overall cancer incidence increased in both sexes and cancer mortality significantly decreased (since 1991 among men). Lung cancer showed significantly decreasing incidence (EAPC = -1.4%) and mortality (EAPC = -1.6%) among men and increasing trends among women. In women, breast cancer incidence significantly increased (EAPC= +1.7%) and mortality decreased since 1989 (EAPC= -2.0%). Stomach cancer incidence and mortality decreased in both sexes. Prostate incidence sharply increased since 1991 and mortality decreased. Colon cancer incidence increased and rectum mortality decreased significantly in both sexes. Significant increases in incidence were also found for kidney (up to 1991 among men), urinary bladder, skin epithelioma, melanoma, liver (up to 1993 among men), pancreas, mesothelioma, Kaposi's sarcoma (up to 1995 among men), testis, thyroid, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas and multiple myeloma. Mortality significantly decreased for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, liver (women), larynx (men), bone, cervix (since 1990), central nervous system, urinary bladder, thyroid, Hodgkin's lymphomas and leukaemias (men). Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality increased in both sexes. In conclusion, most of the changes seen can be explained as the effect of changes in smoking habits and of the extension of secondary prevention activities. The Italian health care system will also have to cope with growing cancer diagnostic and therapeutic needs due to population ageing.

Risk of cancer in persons with AIDS in Italy, 1985-1998.

A record linkage was carried out between the Italian Registry of AIDS and 19 Cancer Registries (CRs), which covered 23% of the Italian population, to estimate the overall cancer burden among persons with HIV or AIDS (PWHA) in Italy, according to various characteristics. Observed and expected numbers of cancer and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were assessed until 1998 in 12 104 PWHA aged 15-69 years, for a total of 60 421 person-years. Significantly increased SIRs were observed for Kaposi's sarcoma (KS, 1749-fold higher than the general population), non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL, 352), and invasive cervical cancer (22). SIR was significantly elevated also for cancer of the anus (34), lung cancer (2.4), brain tumours (4.4), Hodgkin's disease (16), and leukaemias (5.3). The majority of lung and brain cancers were not histologically confirmed, and the possibility of misclassification with KS or NHL cannot be ruled out. The SIR for all non-AIDS-defining cancers was 2.2 in men and 2.5 in women. Intravenous drug users showed significantly more elevated SIRs for lung cancer (9.4), and brain tumours (6.7) than other transmission categories (SIR=1.4 and 2.3, respectively). This study confirmed increased SIRs for haemolymphopoietic neoplasms other than NHL in PWHA, although many-fold smaller than for NHL. An association with human papillomavirus-related cancers was also confirmed.

The bloodsucking arthropod bite as possible cofactor in the transmission of human herpesvirus-8 infection and in the expression of Kaposi's sarcoma disease.

Based on a review of the literature on human herpesvirus-8 (HHV8) and Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and on the distribution of KS in Italy (Veneto region particularly), we hypothesize that the bite of bloodsucking arthropods is a cofactor in the seroconversion to HHV8 positivity and probably in the pathogenesis of KS. The bloodsucking arthropod releases with saliva powerful antihaemostatics and immunomodulators which may favour the replication and the establishment of the pathogen. Transmission would depend on the close contact of the child with a seropositive mother (or relatives) whose infective saliva is used to relieve itching and scratching at the arthropod bite's sites. During any deregulation of the immune system (e.g. ageing), local immune responses to new insect bites may induce virus activation which could prelude KS insurgence. The pathogen is not directly transmitted by the arthropod which merely prepares the cutaneous microenvironment for the virus. We have therefore introduced a new category of medically important arthropods, "promoter arthropods", besides those already defined as biological or mechanical vectors. Promoter arthropods are species able to induce in the host long-lasting, immediate or delayed-type hypersensitivity responses as well as local immunosuppression due to substances injected with their saliva. The striking variability of ORF-K1 gene of HHV8 could be due to the adaptation of the virus to the specific microenvironments resulting from the immune response to the salivary antigens characteristic of the bloodsucking arthropod species prevalent in each geographical area. It is worth noting that other viruses (especially Hepatitis B Virus) may exploit the same non-sexual transmission route.

Building a database for survival analysis.

The AIRT built a national data base for survival data, collecting follow up information regarding incident cases from 14 cancer registries and 2 childhood cancer registries operating in Italy. In this study, 210,661 cases incident during the period 1990-1994, followed up until 1999, were analysed. The Veneto Cancer Registry did the data quality checks, the conversion in SAS format and developed a SAS procedure to perform the survival analysis. The procedure allows to select the cancer registry, the period and the cancer site to analyse, running the Hakulinens' software for relative survival analysis and exporting the results in Excel sheet to produce a standard layout.

Tranexamic acid in aortic valve replacement.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relative efficacy of tranexamic acid compared with a control group to decrease bleeding and transfusion requirements in a uniform population undergoing aortic valve replacement. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, double-blind study. SETTINGS: University hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Adult cardiac surgery patients (n = 300). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized into 2 groups to receive either a total of 5 g of tranexamic acid or a saline solution. Bleeding in the postoperative period, transfusions of bank blood products, coagulation profile, intensive care unit stay, and hospital length of stay were recorded. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Postoperative bleeding in patients treated with tranexamic acid was significantly lower compared with the control group (p < 0.0001). Packed red blood cells and fresh frozen plasma usage were reduced in the tranexamic acid group compared with the control group (p = 0.0095 and p < 0.0001). Only 24.5% of tranexamic acid patients received blood products versus 45% of control patients (p < 0.01). There was no significant difference in hematologic and coagulation profiles after the operation between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Tranexamic acid reduces postoperative blood loss and transfusion requirements in elective aortic valve replacement.

[Methodological issues and first results of a record linkage between AIDS and Cancer Registries in Italy]. / Incrocio tra i Registri Tumori italiani e il Registro nazionale AIDS: aspetti metodologici e primi risultati.Cancer and AIDS Registry Linkage Study.

We report herein, the first results of a record linkage between the Italian AIDS Registry and 13 population-based Cancer Registries (about 8-million population in 1991). An anonymous linkage process was carried out on about 339,000 cancer notifications and 6,067 AIDS ones reported between 1982 and 1994. Out of 243 Kaposi's sarcomas (KS) below age 50 years recorded at either type of registry, 90 (37%) were reported as such by both. Sixty-eight percent of individuals with KS at Cancer Registries could be identified at the AIDS Registry. Sixty-two percent of individuals with KS and 65% of individuals reported as having non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) at RAIDS could be also found at Cancer Registries. Among 6,067 persons with AIDS 15-69 years old, observed and expected numbers of cancer and age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) on a total of 25,759 person-years were computed. Significantly increased SIR was found for Hodgkin's disease (8.9; 95% CI: 4.4-16.0), invasive carcinoma of the cervix uteri (15.5; 95% CI: 4.0-40.1), and non-melanomatous skin cancer (3.0, 95%, CI: 1.3-5.9). As in previous studies, KS and NHL were greatly increased (SIR = 1,300 and 59, respectively). The risk for all cancer types, after exclusion of KS and NHL, was approximately twice the risk of the general population. An increased SIR of Hodgkin's disease in persons with AIDS is thus confirmed, though many-fold smaller than for NHL. An association with invasive carcinoma of the cervix is also shown at a population level. These data indicate the potential of AIDS and Cancer Registries for improving cancer assessment in individuals with HIV/AIDS and elucidating the role of immune system on cancer onset.

Second malignant neoplasms in patients treated on SIOP Wilms tumour studies and trials 1, 2, 5, and 6.

The incidence of second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) was investigated among 1,988 patients with complete data, enrolled in the SIOP Wilms tumor trials and studies 1, 2, 5, and 6, treated between September 1971 and October 1987. By the end of 1992, eight SMNs were documented, whereas only 1.3 were expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 4.15; 95% CI = 1.79, 8.17). The risk increases in the first 10 years from diagnosis, while no apparent excess of risk is observed in the subsequent periods. This finding however is difficult to interpretdue to the low statistical power. The cumulative incidence of a second cancer observed at 15 years after Wilms tumor diagnosis was 0.65%. Six SMNs were registered in the cohort of patients treated in the SIOP studies 1, 2 and 5 (999 cases) compared to the two cases observed in the SIOP6 cohort (989 cases). If the suggested reduced incidence of second cancers between SIOP1-5 and SIOP6 patient cohorts is confirmed by longer follow-up, it might reflect changes in the treatment protocols.

A computerised cancer registration network in the Veneto region, north-east of Italy: a pilot study.

A cancer registration network based on computerised coded diagnoses has been tested in the Veneto region, north-east Italy, with the goal of estimating cancer incidence during 1987-89. The results of the pilot study based on a population of 1,449,513 (33.1% of the total population of the region) indicate that the computer-assisted system successfully ascertained 61.3% of the cases. The quality indices appear to be close to those from other cancer registries in Europe. The increasing availability of computerised coded information from hospitals, pathology departments and death certificates can provide an important contribution to cancer registration, thus reducing the amount of manual work and consequently allowing cancer registration on larger populations at reduced costs.