Association of Medicare Home Health Ratings With Older Adult Fall Injuries: An Instrumental Variables Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the role of high-quality home health care for fall prevention. DESIGN: A 100% sample of national Medicare claims and home health survey data (2015-2017) were used to assess fall injuries and receipt of a fall risk assessment among recently hospitalized Medicare fee-for-service home health users aged ≥66 years. Subanalyses examined patients by prior fall history status and hospital admission diagnosis type (eg, neurologic, respiratory, cardiovascular, infection, and orthopedic diagnoses). An instrumental variables design addressed potential endogeneity in home health care use by patient fall risk. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Home health agencies and Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. METHODS: Multivariate regression and instrumental variables. RESULTS: Among 962,610 patients with hospital discharges to home health, being treated by home health agencies with the highest star ratings in a person's zip code was associated with a 1.8-percentage point (ppt) (95% CI: 0.1, 3.5; P = .03) higher likelihood of receipt of fall risk assessment. There was no overall change in 30-day (-0.6 ppt, 95% CI: -1.3, 0.1; P = .09), 15-day (-0.3 ppt, 95% CI: -0.0.8, 0.2; P = .35), or 7-day fall injury risk (-0.2 ppt, 95% CI: -0.5, 0.1; P = .22), but a 1.9-ppt (95% CI: -3.9, -0.02; P = .048) lower 30-day fall injury risk for individuals with a history of falls. Effects were directionally similar by diagnosis type. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Fall injury risk is reduced at higher-rated home health agencies. Star ratings may be adequate indicators of quality for key outcomes not explicitly measured in the ratings.

Medicare's Hospital Readmission Reduction Program reduced fall-related health care use: An unexpected benefit?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) was associated with a reduction in severe fall-related injuries (FRIs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Secondary data from Medicare were used. STUDY DESIGN: Using an event study design, among older (≥65) Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, we assessed changes in 30- and 90-day FRI readmissions before and after HRRP's announcement (April 2010) and implementation (October 2012) for conditions targeted by the HRRP (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], congestive heart failure [CHF], and pneumonia) versus "non-targeted" (gastrointestinal) conditions. We tested for modification by hospitals with "high-risk" before HRRP and accounted for potential upcoding. We also explored changes in 30-day FRI readmissions involving emergency department (ED) or outpatient care, care processes (length of stay, discharge destination, and primary care visit), and patient selection (age and comorbidities). DATA COLLECTION: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified 1.5 million (522,596 pre-HRRP, 514,844 announcement, and 474,029 implementation period) index discharges. After its announcement, HRRP was associated with 12%-20% reductions in 30- and 90-day FRI readmissions for patients with CHF (-0.42 percentage points [ppt], p = 0.02; -1.53 ppt, p < 0.001) and AMI (-0.35, p = 0.047; -0.97, p = 0.001). Two years after implementation, HRRP was associated with reductions in 90-day FRI readmission for AMI (-1.27 ppt, p = 0.01) and CHF (-0.98 ppt, p = 0.02) patients. Results were similar for hospitals at higher versus lower baseline risk of FRI readmission. After HRRP's announcement, decreases were observed in home health (AMI: -2.43 ppt, p < 0.001; CHF: -8.83 ppt, p < 0.001; pneumonia: -1.97 ppt, p < 0.001) and skilled nursing facility referrals (AMI: -5.95 ppt, p < 0.001; CHF: -3.19 ppt, p < 0.001; pneumonia: -10.27 ppt, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HRRP was associated with reductions in FRIs, primarily for HF and pneumonia patients. These decreases may reflect improvements in transitional care including changes in post-acute referral patterns that benefit patients at risk for falls.

Impact of Medicare eligibility on informal caregiving for surgery and stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the intensity of family and friend care changes after older individuals enroll in Medicare at age 65. DATA SOURCES: Health and Retirement Study survey data (1998-2018). STUDY DESIGN: We compared informal care received by patients hospitalized for stroke, heart surgery, or joint surgery and who were stratified into propensity-weighted pre- and post-Medicare eligibility cohorts. A regression discontinuity design compared the self-reported likelihood of any care receipt, weekly hours of overall informal care, and intensity of informal care (hours among those receiving any care) at Medicare eligibility. DATA COLLECTION: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 2270 individuals were included; 1674 (73.7%) stroke, 240 (10.6%) heart surgery, and 356 (15.7%) joint surgery patients. Mean (SD) care received was 20.0 (42.1) weekly hours. Of the 1214 (53.5%) patients who received informal care, the mean (SD) care receipt was 37.4 (51.7) weekly hours. Mean (SD) overall weekly care received was 23.4 (45.5), 13.9 (35.8), and 7.8 (21.6) for stroke, heart surgery, and joint surgery patients, respectively. The onset of Medicare eligibility was associated with a 13.6 percentage-point decrease in the probability of informal care received for stroke patients (p = 0.003) but not in the other acute care cohorts. Men had a 16.8 percentage-point decrease (p = 0.002) in the probability of any care receipt. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare coverage was associated with a substantial decrease in family and friend caregiving use for stroke patients. Informal care may substitute for rather than complement restorative care, given that Medicare is known to expand the use of postacute care. The observed spillover effect of Medicare coverage on informal caregiving has implications for patient function and caregiver burden and should be considered in episode-based reimbursement models that alter professional rehabilitative care intensity.

Unaddressed functional difficulty and care support among White, Black, and Hispanic older adults in the last decade.

Unaddressed functional difficulties contribute to disparities in healthy aging. While the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is believed to have reshaped long-term care, little is known how it has collectively altered the prevalence of older adults with functional difficulties and their use of family and formal care. This study uses nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2008 - 2018) to describe racial-ethnic differences in prevalence of community-dwelling older adults who had difficulty with, but lacked assistance for self-care, mobility, and household activities before and after the ACA. Individuals with functional difficulties accounted for about a third of Black and Hispanic, compared to one-fifth of White people. Prevalence of Black and Hispanic people with functional difficulties lacking corresponding care support was consistently 1.5 times higher than of White people. Racial-ethnic differences disappeared only for low-income households where unaddressed difficulties were uniformly high. While formal care quantity was similar, Black and Hispanic people with functional difficulties received nearly 50 percent more family care than White people. These gaps between White, Black, and Hispanic older adults were persistent over time. These findings suggest that racial-ethnic gaps in aging needs and supports remain despite major health care reforms in the past decade.

Time to dementia diagnosis by race: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-Hispanic Black individuals may be less likely to receive a diagnosis of dementia compared to non-Hispanic White individuals. These findings raise important questions regarding which factors may explain this observed association and any differences in the time to which disparities emerge following dementia onset. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using survey data from the 1995 to 2016 Health and Retirement Study linked with Medicare fee-for-service claims. Using the Hurd algorithm (a regression-based approach), we identified dementia onset among older adult respondents (age ≥65 years) from the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status and proxy respondents. We determined date from dementia onset to diagnosis using Medicare data up to 3 years following onset using a list of established diagnosis codes. Cox Proportional Hazards modeling was used to examine the association between an individual's reported race and likelihood of diagnosis after accounting for sociodemographic characteristics, income, education, functional status, and healthcare use. RESULTS: We identified 3435 older adults who experienced a new onset of dementia. Among them, 30.1% received a diagnosis within 36 months of onset. In unadjusted analyses, the difference in cumulative proportion diagnosed by race continued to increase across time following onset, p-value <0.001. 23.8% of non-Hispanic Black versus 31.4% of non-Hispanic White participants were diagnosed within 36 months of dementia onset, Hazard Ratio = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.88). The association persisted after adjustment for functional status and healthcare use; however, these factors had less of an impact on the strength of the association than income and level of education. CONCLUSION: Lower diagnosis rates of dementia among non-Hispanic Black individuals persists after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, functional status, and healthcare use. Further understanding of barriers to diagnosis that may be related to social determinants of health is needed to improve dementia-related outcomes among non-Hispanic Black Americans.

Associations of Age at Diagnosis and Duration of Diabetes With Morbidity and Mortality Among Older Adults.

Importance: Older adults vary widely in age at diagnosis and duration of type 2 diabetes, but treatment often ignores this heterogeneity. Objectives: To investigate the associations of diabetes vs no diabetes, age at diagnosis, and diabetes duration with negative health outcomes in people 50 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included participants in the 1995 through 2018 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a population-based, biennial longitudinal health interview survey of older adults in the US. The study sample included adults 50 years or older (n = 36 060) without diabetes at entry. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2021, to July 31, 2022. Exposures: The presence of diabetes, specifically the age at diabetes diagnosis, was the main exposure of the study. Age at diagnosis was defined as the age when the respondent first reported diabetes. Adults who developed diabetes were classified into 3 age-at-diagnosis groups: 50 to 59 years, 60 to 69 years, and 70 years and older. Main Outcomes and Measures: For each diabetes age-at-diagnosis group, a propensity score-matched control group of respondents who never developed diabetes was constructed. The association of diabetes with the incidence of key outcomes-including heart disease, stroke, disability, cognitive impairment, and all-cause mortality-was estimated and the association of diabetes vs no diabetes among the age-at-diagnosis case and matched control groups was compared. Results: A total of 7739 HRS respondents developed diabetes and were included in the analysis (4267 women [55.1%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 67.4 [9.9] years). The age-at-diagnosis groups included 1866 respondents at 50 to 59 years, 2834 at 60 to 69 years, and 3039 at 70 years or older; 28 321 HRS respondents never developed diabetes. Age at diagnosis of 50 to 59 years was significantly associated with incident heart disease (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.40-1.96]), stroke (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.30-2.07]), disability (HR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.59-2.72]), cognitive impairment (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.05-1.61]), and mortality (HR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.29-1.71]) compared with matched controls, even when accounting for diabetes duration. These associations significantly decreased with advancing age at diagnosis. Respondents with diabetes diagnosed at 70 years or older only showed a significant association with the outcome of elevated mortality (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.01-1.17]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that age at diabetes diagnosis was differentially associated with outcomes and that younger age groups were at elevated risk of heart disease, stroke, disability, cognitive impairment, and all-cause mortality. These findings reinforce the clinical heterogeneity of diabetes and highlight the importance of improving diabetes management in adults with earlier diagnosis.

Depressive Symptoms and Caregiving Intensity Before and After Onset of Dementia in Partners: A Retrospective, Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Caring for a partner with dementia poses significant emotional burden and high care demands, but changes in impacts before and after dementia onset is unclear. OBJECTIVE: Examine changes in depressive symptoms and hours of care provided by caregivers through the course of their partners' cognitive decline. METHODS: Retrospective, observational study using household survey data from 2000-2016 Health and Retirement Study and count models to evaluate older individuals' (ages ≥51 y) depressive symptoms (measured using the shortened Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and weekly caregiving in the 10 years before and after their partners' dementia onset (identified using Telephone Interview Cognitive Status screening). Relationships were examined overall and by sex and race. RESULTS: We identified 8298 observations for 1836 older caregivers whose partners developed dementia. From before to after partners' dementia onset, caregivers' mean (SD) depressive symptoms increased from 1.4 (1.9) to 1.9 (2.1) ( P <0.001) and weekly caregiving increased from 4.4 (19.7) to 20.8 (44.1) ( P <0.001) hours. Depressive symptoms and caregiving hours were higher for women compared with men. Depressive symptoms were higher for Blacks compared with Whites, while caregiving hours were higher for Whites. The expected count of caregivers' depressive symptoms and caregiving hours increased by 3% ( P <0.001) and 9% ( P =0.001) before partners' dementia onset and decreased by 2% ( P <0.001) and 1% ( P =0.63) following partners' dementia onset. No differences observed by sex or race. DISCUSSION: Depressive symptoms and instrumental burdens for caregivers increase substantially before the onset of dementia in partners. Early referral to specialty services is critical.

Evaluating alternative methods of comparing antihypertensive treatment intensity.

OBJECTIVES: To change blood pressure treatment, clinicians can modify medication count or dose. However, existing studies have measured count modification, which may miss clinically important dose change in the absence of count change. This research demonstrates how dose modification captures more information about management than medication count alone. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We included patients 65 years and older with established primary care at the Veterans Health Administration (July 2011-June 2013). We captured medication count and standardized dose change over 90 to 120 days using a validated pharmacy fill algorithm. We determined frequency of dose change without count change (and vice versa), no change in either, change in same direction ("concordant"), and change in opposite direction ("discordant"). We compared change according to systolic blood pressure (SBP) and compared concordance using a minimum threshold definition of dose change of at least 50% (instead of any change) of baseline dose modification. RESULTS: Among 440,801 patients, 64.2% had dose change; 22.0%, count change; 35.6%, no change in either; 42.4%, dose change without count modification; and 0.2%, count change without dose modification. Discordance occurred in 2.1% of observations. Using the minimum threshold definition of change, 68.7% had no change in either dose or count. Treatment was more frequently changed at SBP greater than 140 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Measuring change in antihypertensive treatment using medication count frequently missed an isolated dose change in treatment modification and less often misclassified regimen modifications where there was no modification in total dose. In future research, measuring dose modification using our new algorithm would capture change in hypertension treatment intensity more precisely than current methods.

Medicare spending associated with a dementia diagnosis among older adults.

BACKGROUND: Over 6 million Americans have Alzheimer's Disease or Related Dementia (ADRD) but whether spikes in spending surrounding a new diagnosis reflect pre-diagnosis morbidity, diagnostic testing, or treatments for comorbidities is unknown. METHODS: We used the 1998-2018 Health and Retirement Study and linked Medicare claims from older (≥65) adults to assess incremental quarterly spending changes just before versus just after a clinical diagnosis (diagnosis cohort, n = 2779) and, for comparative purposes, for a cohort screened as impaired based on the validated Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) (impairment cohort, n = 2318). Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and health characteristics. Spending patterns were examined separately by sex, race, education, dual eligibility, and geography. RESULTS: Among the diagnosis cohort, mean (SD) overall spending was $4773 ($9774) per quarter - 43% of which was spending on hospital care ($2048). In adjusted analyses, spending increased by $8400 (p < 0.001), or 156%, from $5394 in the quarter prior to $13,794 in the quarter including the diagnosis. Among the cohort in which impairment was incidentally detected using the TICS, adjusted spending did not change from just before to after detection of impairment, from $2986 before and $2962 after detection (p = 0.90). Incremental spending changes did not differ by sex, race, education, dual eligibility, or geography. CONCLUSION: Large, transient spending increases accompany an ADRD diagnosis that may not be attributed to impairment or changes in functional status due to dementia. Further study may help reveal how treatment for comorbidities is associated with the clinical diagnosis of dementia, with potential implications for Medicare spending.

Adding a New Medication Versus Maximizing Dose to Intensify Hypertension Treatment in Older Adults : A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: There are 2 approaches to intensifying antihypertensive treatment when target blood pressure is not reached, adding a new medication and maximizing dose. Which strategy is better is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of intensification by adding a new medication versus maximizing dose, as well as the association of each method with intensification sustainability and follow-up systolic blood pressure (SBP). DESIGN: Large-scale, population-based, retrospective cohort study. Observational data were used to emulate a target trial with 2 groups, new medication and maximizing dose, who underwent intensification of their drug regimen. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (2011 to 2013). PATIENTS: Veterans aged 65 years or older with hypertension, an SBP of 130 mm Hg or higher, and at least 1 antihypertensive medication at less than the maximum dose. MEASUREMENTS: The following 2 intensification approaches were emulated: adding a new medication, defined as a total dose increase with new medication, and maximizing dose, defined as a total dose increase without new medication. Inverse probability weighting was used to assess the observational effectiveness of the intensification approach on sustainability of intensified treatment and follow-up SBP at 3 and 12 months. RESULTS: Among 178 562 patients, 45 575 (25.5%) had intensification by adding a new medication and 132 987 (74.5%) by maximizing dose. Compared with maximizing dose, adding a new medication was associated with less intensification sustainability (average treatment effect, -15.2% [95% CI, -15.7% to -14.6%] at 3 months and -15.1% [CI, -15.6% to -14.5%] at 12 months) but a slightly larger reduction in mean SBP (-0.8 mm Hg [CI, -1.2 to -0.4 mm Hg] at 3 months and -1.1 mm Hg [CI, -1.6 to -0.6 mm Hg] at 12 months). LIMITATION: Observational data; largely male population. CONCLUSION: Adding a new antihypertensive medication was less frequent and was associated with less intensification sustainability but slightly larger reductions in SBP. Trials would provide the most definitive support for our findings. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging and Veterans Health Administration.

Factors associated with antihypertensive treatment intensification and deintensification in older outpatients.

BACKGROUND: New hypertension performance measures encourage more intensive treatment in older adults. Treatment intensification includes starting new medications and increasing the dose of old ones. Medication dose is particularly important to older adults, given their vulnerability to dose-related side effects. We previously validated a standardized measure of beneficial doses tested in hypertension trials, Hypertension Daily Dose (HDD). AIM OF THE STUDY: To test whether changes in treatment intensity using HDD was associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and patient characteristics. METHODS: Longitudinal study of all Veterans aged ≥65 years with a diagnosis of hypertension. We defined 3 groups of risk: 1) cardiovascular risk; 2) geriatric/frail; 3) low-risk (comparator). Using multinomial regression, we assessed the probability of deintensification, intensification, vs. stable treatment, according to SBP and group. RESULTS: Among 1,331,111 Veterans, 19.9% had deintensification, and 29.6% intensification. Deintensification decreased, while intensification increased, with SBP. Compared to low-risk patients, cardiovascular risk patients had 1.11 (95% CI 1.10-1.13) times the odds of intensifying, and geriatric/frail patients 1.45 (95%CI 1.43-1.47) times the odds of deintensifying. DISCUSSION: Patient-level HDD change was consistent with an expected association with cardiovascular risk and geriatric/frail conditions, suggesting that HDD can be used longitudinally to assess hypertension treatment modification in large health systems.

Clinical outcomes of modifying hypertension treatment intensity in older adults treated to low blood pressure.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Hypertension treatment reduces cardiovascular events. However, uncertainty remains about benefits and harms of deintensification or further intensification of antihypertensive medication when systolic blood pressure (SBP) is tightly controlled in older multimorbid patients, because of their frequent exclusion in trials. We assessed the association of hypertension treatment deintensification or intensification with clinical outcomes in older adults with tightly controlled SBP. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study (2011-2013) with 9-month follow-up. SETTING: U.S.-nationwide primary care Veterans Health Administration healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans aged 65 and older with baseline SBP <130 mmHg and ≥1 antihypertensive medication during ≥2 consecutive visits (N = 228,753). EXPOSURE: Deintensification or intensification, compared with stable treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cardiovascular events, syncope, or fall injury, as composite and distinct outcomes, within 9 months after exposure. Adjusted logistic regression and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW, sensitivity analysis). RESULTS: Among 228,753 patients (mean age 75 [SD 7.5] years), the composite outcome occurred in 11,982/93,793 (12.8%) patients with stable treatment, 14,768/72,672 (20.3%) with deintensification, and 11,821/62,288 (19.0%) with intensification. Adjusted absolute outcome risk (95% confidence interval) was higher for deintensification (18.3% [18.1%-18.6%]) and intensification (18.7% [18.4%-19.0%]), compared with stable treatment (14.8% [14.6%-15.0%]), p < 0.001 for both effects in the multivariable model). Deintensification was associated with fewer cardiovascular events than intensification. At baseline SBP <95 mmHg, cardiovascular event risk was similar for deintensification and stable treatment, and fall risk lower for deintensification than intensification. IPTW yielded similar results. Mean follow-up SBP was 124.1 mmHg for stable treatment, 125.1 mmHg after deintensification (p < 0.001), and 124.0 mmHg after intensification (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Antihypertensive treatment deintensification in older patients with tightly controlled SBP was associated with worse outcomes than continuing same treatment intensity. Given higher mortality among patients with treatment modification, confounding by indication may not have been fully corrected by advanced statistical methods for observational data analysis.

A Method to Quantify Mean Hypertension Treatment Daily Dose Intensity Using Health Care System Data.

Importance: Simple measures of hypertension treatment, such as achievement of blood pressure (BP) targets, ignore the intensity of treatment once the BP target is met. High-intensity treatment involves increased treatment burden and can be associated with potential adverse effects in older adults. A method was previously developed to identify older patients receiving intense hypertension treatment by low BP and number of BP medications using national Veterans Health Administration and Medicare Part D administrative pharmacy data to evaluate which BP medications a patient is likely taking on any given day. Objective: To further develop and validate a method to more precisely quantify dose intensity of hypertension treatment using only health system administrative pharmacy fill data. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational, cross-sectional study of 319 randomly selected older veterans in the national Veterans Health Administration health care system who were taking multiple BP-lowering medications and had a total of 3625 ambulatory care visits from July 1, 2011, to June 30, 2013. Measure development and medical record review occurred January 1, 2017, through November 30, 2018, and data analysis was conducted from December 1, 2019, to August 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: For each BP-lowering medication, a moderate hypertension daily dose (HDD) was defined as half the maximum dose above which no further clinical benefit has been demonstrated by that medication in hypertension trials. Patients' total HDD was calculated using pharmacy data (pharmacy HDDs), accounting for substantial delays in refills (>30 days) when a patient's pill supply was stretched (eg, cutting existing pills in half). As an external comparison, the pharmacy HDDs were correlated with doses manually extracted from clinicians' visit notes (clinically noted HDDs). How well the pharmacy HDDs correlated with clinically noted HDDs was calculated (using C statistics). To facilitate interpretation, HDDs were described in association with the number of medications. Results: A total of 316 patients (99.1%) were male; the mean (SD) age was 75.6 (7.2) years. Pharmacy HDDs were highly correlated (r = 0.92) with clinically noted HDDs, with a mean (SD) of 2.7 (1.8) for pharmacy HDDs and 2.8 (1.8) for clinically noted HDDs. Pharmacy HDDs correlated with high-intensity, clinically noted HDDs ranging from a C statistic of 92.8% (95% CI, 92.0%-93.7%) for 2 or more clinically noted HDDs to 88.1% (95% CI, 85.5%-90.6%) for 6 or more clinically noted HDDs. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that health system pharmacy data may be used to accurately quantify hypertension regimen dose intensity. Together with clinic-measured BP, this tool can be used in future health system-based research or quality improvement efforts to fine-tune, manage, and optimize hypertension treatment in older adults.

Using Medicare claims in identifying Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

INTRODUCTION: This study develops a measure of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) using Medicare claims. METHODS: Validation resembles the approach of the American Psychological Association, including (1) content validity, (2) construct validity, and (3) predictive validity. RESULTS: We found that four items-a Medicare claim recording ADRD 1 year ago, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, and a total stay of 6 months in a nursing home-exhibit a pattern of association consistent with a single underlying ADRD construct, and presence of any two of these four items predict a direct measure of cognitive function and also future claims for ADRD. DISCUSSION: Our four items are internally consistent with the measurement of a single quantity. The presence of any two items do a better job than a single claim when predicting both a direct measure of cognitive function and future ADRD claims.

Prehospital and Posthospital Fall Injuries in Older US Adults.

Importance: To date, measurement and treatment of older adult fall injury has been siloed within specific care settings, such as a hospital or within a nursing home or community. Little is known about changes in fall risk across care settings. Understanding the occurrence of falls across settings has implications for measuring and incentivizing high-value care across care settings. Objective: To estimate the risk of older adult fall injury within and across discrete periods during a 12-month care episode anchored by an acute hospitalization. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study is a longitudinal analysis of 12-month periods that include an anchor hospital stay using national data from 2006 to 2014. Participants included older (aged ≥65 years) Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries from the Health and Retirement Study. Weekly fall injury rates were computed for 4 periods compared with the anchor hospitalization: at baseline (1-6 months before hospitalization), just before (<1 month before hospitalization), just after (<1 month after hospitalization), and at follow-up (1-6 months after hospitalization). Piecewise logistic regression models estimated weekly marginal risk of fall injury within each period, adjusting for sociodemographic and health characteristics. Fall injury risks for high-risk beneficiaries with a fall injury during the anchor hospitalization were also estimated. Data analysis was performed from November 2019 to April 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fall injuries. Results: In total, 10 106 anchor hospitalizations for 4101 beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 77.1 [7.6] years; 5912 hospitalizations among women [58.5%]) were identified. The overall fall injury risk was 0.77%. In adjusted models, marginal increases in weekly fall injury risk just before hospitalization (0.27 percentage points [95% CI, 0.22 to 0.33 percentage points], or 30.0%; P < .001) were 4 times greater than decreases just after hospitalization (-0.18 percentage points [95% CI, -0.23 to -0.13 percentage points], or -9.2%; P < .001)]. A greater risk differential before and after hospitalization was observed for patients with an inpatient fall injury (1.89 percentage points [95% CI, 1.37 to 2.40], or 309.8%; P < .001; vs -0.39 percentage points [95% CI, -0.73 to -0.04], or -11.6%; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: An episode-based assessment of fall injury illustrates substantial variability in period-specific risks over an extended period including an anchor hospitalization. Risk transitions between periods include sizable increases just before hospitalization that do not fully subside after hospital discharge. Financial incentives to coordinate hospital and posthospital care for patients at risk for fall injury are needed. These could include bundled payments for fall injury episodes that incentivize coordination across settings.

Validation of a Health System Measure to Capture Intensive Medication Treatment of Hypertension in the Veterans Health Administration.

Importance: Blood pressure (BP) targets are the main measure of high-quality hypertension care in health systems. However, BP alone does not reflect intensity of pharmacological treatment, which should be carefully managed in older patients. Objectives: To develop and validate an electronic health record (EHR) data-only algorithm using pharmacy and BP data to capture intensive hypertension care (IHC), defined as 3 or more BP medications and BP less than 120 mm Hg, and to identify conditions associated with greater IHC, either through greater algorithm false-positive IHC, or by contributing clinically to delivering more IHC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 319 randomly selected patients aged 65 years or older receiving IHC from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) from July 1, 2011, to June 30, 2013. Data were collected from a total of 3625 primary care visits. Data were analyzed from January 2017 to March 2020. Exposures: Calibration and measurement of the algorithm for IHC (algorithm IHC). Main Outcomes and Measures: For each primary care visit, the reference standard, clinical IHC, was determined by detailed review of free-text clinical notes. The correlation in BP medication count between the EHR-only algorithm vs the reference standard and the sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm IHC were calculated. In addition, presence vs absence of contributing conditions acting in combination with hypertension management were measured to examine incidence of IHC associated with contributing conditions, including an acute condition that lowered BP (eg, dehydration), another condition requiring a BP target lower than the standard 140 mm Hg (eg, diabetes), or the patient needing a BP-lowering medication for a nonhypertension condition (eg, ß-blocker for atrial fibrillation) resulting in low BP. Results: Among 319 patients with 3625 visits (mean [SD] age, 75.6 [7.2] years; 3592 [99.1%] men), 911 visits (25.1%) had clinical IHC by the reference standard. The algorithm for determining medication count was highly correlated with the reference standard (r = 0.84). Sensitivity of detecting clinical IHC was 92.2% (95% CI, 89.3%-95.1%), and specificity was 97.2% (95% CI, 96.1%-98.3%), suggesting that clinical IHC can be identified from routinely collected data. Only 75 visits (2.1%) were algorithm IHC false positives, 55 visits (1.5%) involved IHC with contributing conditions, and 125 visits (3.5%) involved either false-positive or IHC with contributing conditions. Among select contributing conditions, congestive heart failure (37 patients [5.2%]) was most associated with a prespecified combined false-positive or IHC with contributing conditions rate higher than 5%. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that health system data can be used reliably to estimate IHC.

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction for people with type 2 diabetes in a population-based cohort and in electronic health record data.

OBJECTIVE: Electronic health records (EHRs) have become a common data source for clinical risk prediction, offering large sample sizes and frequently sampled metrics. There may be notable differences between hospital-based EHR and traditional cohort samples: EHR data often are not population-representative random samples, even for particular diseases, as they tend to be sicker with higher healthcare utilization, while cohort studies often sample healthier subjects who typically are more likely to participate. We investigate heterogeneities between EHR- and cohort-based inferences including incidence rates, risk factor identifications/quantifications, and absolute risks. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of older patients with type 2 diabetes using EHR from New York University Langone Health ambulatory care (NYULH-EHR, years 2009-2017) and from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS, 1995-2014) to study subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. We used the same eligibility criteria, outcome definitions, and demographic covariates/biomarkers in both datasets. We compared subsequent CVD incidence rates, hazard ratios (HRs) of risk factors, and discrimination/calibration performances of CVD risk scores. RESULTS: The estimated subsequent total CVD incidence rate was 37.5 and 90.6 per 1000 person-years since T2DM onset in HRS and NYULH-EHR respectively. HR estimates were comparable between the datasets for most demographic covariates/biomarkers. Common CVD risk scores underestimated observed total CVD risks in NYULH-EHR. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: EHR-estimated HRs of demographic and major clinical risk factors for CVD were mostly consistent with the estimates from a national cohort, despite high incidences and absolute risks of total CVD outcome in the EHR samples.

Measurement of Fall Injury With Health Care System Data and Assessment of Inclusiveness and Validity of Measurement Models.

Importance: National injury surveillance systems use administrative data to collect information about severe fall-related trauma and mortality. Measuring milder injuries in ambulatory clinics would improve comprehensive outcomes measurement across the care spectrum. Objectives: To assess a flexible set of administrative data-only algorithms for health systems to capture a greater breadth of injuries than traditional fall injury surveillance algorithms and to quantify the algorithm inclusiveness and validity associated with expanding to milder injuries. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this longitudinal diagnostic study of 13 939 older adults (≥65 years) in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study, a survey was conducted every 2 years and was linked to hospital, emergency department, postacute skilled nursing home, and outpatient Medicare claims (2000-2012). During each 2-year observation period, participants were considered to have sustained a fall-related injury (FRI) based on a composite reference standard of having either an external cause of injury (E-code) or confirmation by the Health and Retirement Study patient interview. A framework involving 3 algorithms with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes that extend FRI identification with administrative data beyond the use of fall-related E-codes was developed: an acute care algorithm (head and face or limb, neck, and trunk injury reported at the hospital or emergency department), a balanced algorithm (all acute care algorithm injuries plus severe nonemergency outpatient injuries), and an inclusive algorithm (almost all injuries). Data were collected from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2012, and statistical analysis was performed from August 1, 2016, to March 1, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Validity, measured as the proportion of potential FRI diagnoses confirmed by the reference standard, and inclusiveness, measured as the proportion of reference-standard FRIs captured by the potential FRI diagnoses. Results: Of 13 939 participants, 1672 (42.4%) were male, with a mean (SD) age of 77.56 (7.63) years. Among 50 310 observation periods, 9270 potential FRI diagnoses (18.4%) were identified; these were tested against 8621 reference-standard FRIs (17.1%). Compared with the commonly used method of E-coded-only FRIs (2-year incidence, 8.8% [95% CI, 8.6%-9.1%]; inclusion of 51.5% [95% CI, 50.4%-52.5%] of the reference-standard FRIs), FRI inclusion was increased with use of the study framework of algorithms. With the acute care algorithm (2-year incidence, 12.6% [95% CI, 12.4%-12.9%]), validity was prioritized (88.6% [95% CI, 87.4%-89.8%]) over inclusiveness (62.1% [95% CI, 61.1%-63.1%]). The balanced algorithm showed a 2-year incidence of 14.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-14.9%), inclusion of 65.3% (95% CI, 64.3%-66.3%), and validity of 83.2% (95% CI, 81.9%-84.6%). With the inclusive algorithm, the number of potential FRIs increased compared with the E-code-only method (2-year incidence, 17.4% [95% CI, 17.1%-17.8%]; inclusion, 68.4% [95% CI, 67.4%-69.3%]; validity, 75.2% [95% CI, 73.7%-76.6%]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that use of algorithms with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes may increase inclusion of FRIs by health care systems compared with E-codes and that these algorithms may be used by health systems to evaluate interventions and quality improvement efforts.

Patterns of physical activity in sedentary older individuals with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) survey, summarized into weekly caloric expenditures, is a common physical activity (PA) assessment tool among older adults. Specific types of PA reported in the CHAMPS have not been systematically analyzed. We applied latent class analysis to identify the patterns of PA among sedentary older adults with diabetes reported in the CHAMPS survey. METHODS: Latent class models of PA were identified using the CHAMPS survey data reported by 115 individuals aged ≥60 years with type 2 diabetes whom volunteered for a clinical study of PA. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess independent predictors of a specific latent class, including age, sex, and performance in physical function tests. RESULTS: Ninety-three percent of the participants were classified into 3 latent classes. Participants in latent class 1 (60.9%) primarily reported domestic-focused activities. Participants in latent class 2 and 3 (19.5% and 19.6%, respectively) reported domestic-focused activities, in addition to leisure-time physical activities and structured exercise activities. Latent class 1, with more women than men (73% vs.27%), had the lowest caloric expenditure, whereas class 3, with fewer women than men (28% vs. 72%), had the highest caloric expenditure (all p < 0.001). Latent class 2 had the fastest Timed-Up- and Go (7.65 ± 1.28 s; p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Individual PA response in CHAMPS can be categorized using latent class models into meaningful patterns which can inform PA interventions. Customized PA programs should consider the heterogeneity of the activities among sedentary older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00344240; retrospectively registered 23 June 2006.