Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA.

One outcome of the 2022 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute was defined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner, we addressed the management objective of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) used models based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, because climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the YRB will result in a greater probability that the salmon population will continue to fail to meet the management objective of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations being not as important. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:419-432. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach.

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:367-383. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Incorporating climate projections in the environmental risk assessment of pesticides in aquatic ecosystems.

Global climate change will significantly impact the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, both directly and indirectly via the exacerbation of impacts from other stressors. Pesticides form a prime example of chemical stressors that are expected to synergize with climate change. Aquatic exposures to pesticides might change in magnitude due to increased runoff from agricultural fields, and in composition, as application patterns will change due to changes in pest pressures and crop types. Any prospective chemical risk assessment that aims to capture the influence of climate change should properly and comprehensively account for the variabilities and uncertainties that are inherent to projections of future climate. This is only feasible if they probabilistically propagate extensive ensembles of climate model projections. However, current prospective risk assessments typically make use of process-based models of chemical fate that do not typically allow for such high-throughput applications. Here, we describe a Bayesian network model that does. It incorporates a two-step univariate regression model based on a 30-day antecedent precipitation index, circumventing the need for computationally laborious mechanistic models. We show its feasibility and application potential in a case study with two pesticides in a Norwegian stream: the fungicide trifloxystrobin and herbicide clopyralid. Our analysis showed that variations in pesticide application rates as well as precipitation intensity lead to variations in in-stream exposures. When relating to aquatic risks, the influence of these processes is reduced and distributions of risk are dominated by effect-related parameters. Predicted risks for clopyralid were negligible, but the probability of unacceptable future environmental risks due to exposure to trifloxystrobin (i.e., a risk quotient >1) was 8%-12%. This percentage further increased to 30%-35% when a more conservative precautionary factor of 100 instead of 30 was used. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:384-400. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Scenario-based modelling of changes in chemical intake fraction in Sweden and the Baltic Sea under global change.

The climate in Europe is warming twice as fast as it is across the rest of the globe, and in Sweden annual mean temperatures are forecast to increase by up to 3-6 °C by 2100, with increasing frequency and magnitude of floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather. These climate change-related environmental factors and the response of humans at the individual and collective level will affect the mobilization and transport of and human exposure to chemical pollutants in the environment. We conducted a literature review of possible future impacts of global change in response to a changing climate on chemical pollutants in the environment and human exposure, with a focus on drivers of change in exposure of the Swedish population to chemicals in the indoor and outdoor environment. Based on the literature review, we formulated three alternative exposure scenarios that are inspired by three of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We then conducted scenario-based exposure modelling of the >3000 organic chemicals in the USEtox® 2.0 chemical library, and further selected three chemicals (terbuthylazine, benzo[a]pyrene, PCB-155) from the USEtox library that are archetypical pollutants of drinking water and food as illustrative examples. We focus our modelling on changes in the population intake fraction of chemicals, which is calculated as the fraction of a chemical emitted to the environment that is ingested via food uptake or inhaled by the Swedish population. Our results demonstrate that changes of intake fractions of chemicals are possible by up to twofold increases or decreases under different development scenarios. Changes in intake fraction in the most optimistic SSP1 scenario are mostly attributable to a shift by the population towards a more plant-based diet, while changes in the pessimistic SSP5 scenario are driven by environmental changes such as rain fall and runoff rates.

Enabling forecasts of environmental exposure to chemicals in European agriculture under global change.

European agricultural development in the 21st century will be affected by a host of global changes, including climate change, changes in agricultural technologies and practices, and a shift towards a circular economy. The type and quantity of chemicals used, emitted, and cycled through agricultural systems in Europe will change, driven by shifts in the use patterns of pesticides, veterinary pharmaceuticals, reclaimed wastewater used for irrigation, and biosolids. Climate change will also impact the chemical persistence, fate, and transport processes that dictate environmental exposure. Here, we review the literature to identify research that will enable scenario-based forecasting of environmental exposures to organic chemicals in European agriculture under global change. Enabling exposure forecasts requires understanding current and possible future 1.) emissions, 2.) persistence and transformation, and 3.) fate and transport of agricultural chemicals. We discuss current knowledge in these three areas, the impact global change drivers may have on them, and we identify knowledge and data gaps that must be overcome to enable predictive scenario-based forecasts of environmental exposure under global change. Key research gaps identified are: improved understanding of relationships between global change and chemical emissions in agricultural settings; better understanding of environment-microbe interactions in the context of chemical degradation under future conditions; and better methods for downscaling climate change-driven intense precipitation events for chemical fate and transport modelling. We introduce a set of narrative Agricultural Chemical Exposure (ACE) scenarios - augmenting the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - as a framework for forecasting chemical exposure in European agriculture. The proposed ACE scenarios cover a plausible range of optimistic to pessimistic 21st century development pathways. Filling the knowledge and data gaps identified within this study and using the ACE scenario approach for chemical exposure forecasting will support stakeholder planning and regulatory intervention strategies to ensure European agricultural practices develop in a sustainable manner.

ECORISK2050: An Innovative Training Network for predicting the effects of global change on the emission, fate, effects, and risks of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.

By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure of the natural environment to chemicals. ECORISK2050 is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network that brings together an interdisciplinary consortium of academic, industry and governmental partners to deliver a new generation of scientists, with the skills required to study and manage the effects of GCs on chemical risks to the aquatic environment. The research and training goals are to: (1) assess how inputs and behaviour of chemicals from agriculture and urban environments are affected by different environmental conditions, and how different GC scenarios will drive changes in chemical risks to human and ecosystem health; (2) identify short-to-medium term adaptation and mitigation strategies, to abate unacceptable increases to risks, and (3) develop tools for use by industry and policymakers for the assessment and management of the impacts of GC-related drivers on chemical risks. This project will deliver the next generation of scientists, consultants, and industry and governmental decision-makers who have the knowledge and skillsets required to address the changing pressures associated with chemicals emitted by agricultural and urban activities, on aquatic systems on the path to 2050 and beyond.

Associations between access to healthcare, environmental quality, and end-stage renal disease survival time: Proportional-hazards models of over 1,000,000 people over 14 years.

Prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the US increased by 74% from 2000 to 2013. To investigate the role of the broader environment on ESRD survival time, we evaluated average distance to the nearest hospital by county (as a surrogate for access to healthcare) and the Environmental Quality Index (EQI), an aggregate measure of ambient environmental quality composed of five domains (air, water, land, built, and sociodemographic), at the county level across the US. Associations between average hospital distance, EQI, and survival time for 1,092,281 people diagnosed with ESRD between 2000 and 2013 (age 18+, without changes in county residence) from the US Renal Data System were evaluated using proportional-hazards models adjusting for gender, race, age at first ESRD service date, BMI, alcohol and tobacco use, and rurality. The models compared the average distance to the nearest hospital (<10, 10-20, >20 miles) and overall EQI percentiles [0-5), [5-20), [20-40), [40-60), [60-80), [80-95), and [95-100], where lower percentiles are interpreted as better EQI. In the full, non-stratified model with both distance and EQI, there was increased survival for patients over 20 miles from a hospital compared to those under 10 miles from a hospital (hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.15) and no consistent direction of association across EQI strata. In the full model stratified by average hospital distance, under 10 miles from a hospital had increased survival in the worst EQI strata (median survival 3.0 vs. 3.5 years for best vs. worst EQI, respectively), however for people over 20 miles from a hospital, median survival was higher in the best (4.2 years) vs worst (3.4 years) EQI. This association held across different rural/urban categories and age groups. These results demonstrate the importance of considering multiple factors when studying ESRD survival and future efforts should consider additional components of the broader environment.

Abrupt cloud clearing of marine stratocumulus in the subtropical southeast Atlantic.

We document rapid and abrupt clearings of large portions of the subtropical marine low cloud deck that have implications for the global radiation balance and climate sensitivity. Over the southeast Atlantic, large areas of stratocumulus are quickly eroded, yielding partial or complete clearing along sharp transitions hundreds to thousands of kilometers in length that move westward at 8 to 12 meters per second and travel as far as 1000+ kilometers from the African coast. The westward-moving cloudiness reductions have an annual peak in occurrence in the period from April through June. The cloud erosion boundaries reduce cloud at ≈10-kilometer scale in less than 15 minutes, move approximately perpendicular to the mean flow, and are often accompanied by small-scale wave features. Observations suggest that the cloud erosion is caused by atmospheric gravity waves.