Recommended centrifuge method: Specific grain size separation in the <63 µm fraction of marine sediments.

The isolation of specific grain size classes of lithogenic samples and biogenic carbonate from the <63 µm fraction (i.e. clay and silt) of marine sediment is often a prerequisite to further pre-treatments and/or analytical measurements for palaeoceanographic studies. Established techniques employed have included sieving, settling and micro-filtration (and/or a combination of these). However, these methods often use significant amounts of bulk sediment (often up to ∼3 g) and/or require considerable amounts of time during sediment processing (ranging from 48 h to 3 weeks) to isolate a size specific class for further analyses. Here, we build on previous approaches to isolate three grain size classes (e.g. <2 µm, clay; 2-10 µm, fine silt; and 10-63 µm, coarse silt) from the <63 µm fraction of marine sediment with the aid of a centrifuge at varying revolutions per minute using Stokes' Law. We show the utility of our approach using two common sediment types dominated by (i) lithogenic and (ii) biogenic carbonate (specifically coccoliths) components of marine sediment cores. Our method reduces the amount of sample material required to 1-2 g to provide an isolated clay fraction (or other targeted size fraction) and decreases the sample processing time (to ∼1 hour) to enable high throughput of analysis, when compared to previous techniques for palaeoceanographic proxy measurements.•We recommend a more straightforward grain size isolation method for lithogenic sediment and biogenic carbonate sediment types•Isolating commonly targeted grain size fractions for palaeoceanographic studies using a centrifuge.

Indo-Pacific Walker circulation drove Pleistocene African aridification.

Today, the eastern African hydroclimate is tightly linked to fluctuations in the zonal atmospheric Walker circulation1,2. A growing body of evidence indicates that this circulation shaped hydroclimatic conditions in the Indian Ocean region also on much longer, glacial-interglacial timescales3-5, following the development of Pacific Walker circulation around 2.2-2.0 million years ago (Ma)6,7. However, continuous long-term records to determine the timing and mechanisms of Pacific-influenced climate transitions in the Indian Ocean have been unavailable. Here we present a seven-million-year-long record of wind-driven circulation of the tropical Indian Ocean, as recorded in Mozambique Channel Throughflow (MCT) flow-speed variations. We show that the MCT flow speed was relatively weak and steady until 2.1 ± 0.1 Ma, when it began to increase, coincident with the intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation6,7. Strong increases during glacial periods, which reached maxima after the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (0.9-0.64 Ma; ref. 8), were punctuated by weak flow speeds during interglacial periods. We provide a mechanism explaining that increasing MCT flow speeds reflect synchronous development of the Indo-Pacific Walker cells that promote aridification in Africa. Our results suggest that after about 2.1 Ma, the increasing aridification is punctuated by pronounced humid interglacial periods. This record will facilitate testing of hypotheses of climate-environmental drivers for hominin evolution and dispersal.

Modelling soil erosion responses to climate change in three catchments of Great Britain.

Simulations of 21st century climate change for Great Britain predict increased seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by increasing surface runoff. Land use and different vegetation cover can respond differently to this scenario, mitigating or enhancing soil erosion. Here, by means of a sensitivity analysis of the PESERA soil erosion model, we test the potential for climate and vegetation to impact soil loss by surface-runoff to three differentiated British catchments. First, to understand general behaviours, we modelled soil erosion adopting regular increments for rainfall and temperature from the baseline values (1961-1990). Then, we tested future climate scenarios adopting projections from UKCP09 (UK Climate Projections) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on a defined medium CO2 emissions scenario, SRES-A1B (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), at the horizons 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99. Our results indicate that the model reacts to the changes of the climatic parameters and the three catchments respond differently depending on their land use arrangement. Increases in rainfall produce a rise in soil erosion while higher temperatures tend to lower the process because of the mitigating action of the vegetation. Even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion by enhancing primary productivity and in turn improving leaf interception, infiltration-capacity, and reducing soil erodibility. Consequently, for specific land uses, the increase in air temperature associated with climate change can modify the rainfall thresholds to generate soil loss, and soil erosion rates could decline by up to about 33% from 2070 to 2099. We deduce that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism limiting soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset the effects of increased precipitation. The expansion of permanent vegetation cover could provide an adaptation strategy to reduce climate-driven soil loss.

An agent-based model about the effects of fake news on a norovirus outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Concern about health misinformation is longstanding, especially on the Internet. METHODS: Using agent-based models, we considered the effects of such misinformation on a norovirus outbreak, and some methods for countering the possible impacts of "good" and "bad" health advice. The work explicitly models spread of physical disease and information (both online and offline) as two separate but interacting processes. The models have multiple stochastic elements; repeat model runs were made to identify parameter values that most consistently produced the desired target baseline scenario. Next, parameters were found that most consistently led to a scenario when outbreak severity was clearly made worse by circulating poor quality disease prevention advice. Strategies to counter "fake" health news were tested. RESULTS: Reducing bad advice to 30% of total information or making at least 30% of people fully resistant to believing in and sharing bad health advice were effective thresholds to counteract the negative impacts of bad advice during a norovirus outbreak. CONCLUSION: How feasible it is to achieve these targets within communication networks (online and offline) should be explored.

Sea ice dynamics across the Mid-Pleistocene transition in the Bering Sea.

Sea ice and associated feedback mechanisms play an important role for both long- and short-term climate change. Our ability to predict future sea ice extent, however, hinges on a greater understanding of past sea ice dynamics. Here we investigate sea ice changes in the eastern Bering Sea prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). The sea ice record, based on the Arctic sea ice biomarker IP25 and related open water proxies from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343, shows a substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT. The occurrence of late-glacial/deglacial sea ice maxima are consistent with sea ice/land ice hysteresis and land-glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. We also identify interactions of sea ice with phytoplankton growth and ocean circulation patterns, which have important implications for glacial North Pacific Intermediate Water formation and potentially North Pacific abyssal carbon storage.

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium.

Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ18O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ18O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.

Arterial stiffness and central blood pressure, as determined by pulse wave analysis, in rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality for reasons which are insufficiently understood. Chronic inflammation may impair vascular function and lead to an increase of arterial stiffness, an important determinant of cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the augmentation index (AIx) as a measure of arterial stiffness in patients with RA, free of cardiovascular disease or risk factors, by means of a matched cohort pilot study. METHOD: Patients with a diagnosis of RA, aged 50 years or younger, were screened for the absence of clinical cardiovascular disease and risk factors, such as smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, and excessive systemic steroid use. Suitable subjects were assessed by non-invasive radial pulse wave analysis to determine their AIx. These data were compared with those from healthy controls, matched closely for sex, age, mean peripheral blood pressure, heart rate, and height. RESULTS: 14 suitable patients (11 female; mean (SD) age 42 (6) years, mean RA duration 11 (6) years; mean C reactive protein 19 (15) mg/l, no clinical systemic rheumatoid vasculitis) and matched controls were identified. The RA group had a higher mean (SD) AIx and mean (SD) central blood pressure (BP) than the control group: AIx 26.2 (6.7) v 18.9 (10.8)%, p=0.028; mean central BP 91.3 (7.8) v 88.2 (8.9) mm Hg, p<0.0001, by two tailed, paired t test. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study suggests that RA is associated with increased arterial stiffness and central BP, independently of clinically manifest cardiovascular disease or risk factors. This may contribute to the increased cardiovascular mortality in RA.

Pressure amplification explains why pulse pressure is unrelated to risk in young subjects.

Pulse pressure rather than diastolic pressure is the best predictor of coronary heart disease risk in older subjects, but the converse is true in younger subjects. We hypothesized that this disparity results from an age-related difference in pressure amplification from the aorta to brachial artery. Data from 212 subjects age < 50 years and 230 subjects age > or =50 years were abstracted from a community database. All subjects were free from cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and medication. Peripheral blood pressure was assessed by sphygmomanometry. Radial artery waveforms recorded noninvasively by applanation tonometry were used to derive central blood pressure. Pressure amplification (peripheral/central pulse pressure ratio) was linearly related to age (r=0.7; P<0.001). There was an inverse, linear relationship between amplification and diastolic pressure in the younger group (r=0.3; P<0.001) but not in older subjects (r=0.1; P=0.2). There was no relationship in either group when the amplification ratio was calculated with nonaugmented central pressure. Amplification is reduced in older subjects because of enhanced wave reflection. In younger, but not older, subjects, amplification declines as diastolic pressure rises. Therefore, peripheral pulse pressure underestimates the effect that diastolic pressure has on central pulse pressure in younger subjects. This may explain why diastolic pressure is a better predictor of risk in this age group and suggests that assessment of central pressure may improve risk stratification further.

Intensified deep Pacific inflow and ventilation in Pleistocene glacial times.

The production of cold, deep waters in the Southern Ocean is an important factor in the Earth's heat budget. The supply of deep water to the Pacific Ocean is presently dominated by a single source, the deep western boundary current east of New Zealand. Here we use sediment records deposited under the influence of this deep western boundary current to reconstruct deep-water properties and speed changes during the Pleistocene epoch. In physical and isotope proxies we find evidence for intensified deep Pacific Ocean inflow and ventilation during the glacial periods of the past 1.2 million years. The changes in throughflow may be directly related to an increased production of Antarctic Bottom Water during glacial times. Possible causes for such an increased bottom-water production include increasing wind strengths in the Southern Ocean or an increase in annual sea-ice formation, leaving dense water after brine rejection and thereby enhancing deep convection. We infer also that the global thermohaline circulation was perturbed significantly during the mid-Pleistocene climate transition between 0.86 and 0.45 million years ago.