Time trends in herpesvirus seroepidemiology among Swedish adults.

BACKGROUND: Human herpesviruses are widespread among the human population. The infections often occur unnoticed, but severe disease as well as long-term sequelae are part of the symptom spectrum. The prevalence varies among subpopulations and with time. The aim of this study was to describe the seroprevalence of Immunoglobulin G against Herpes simplex 1, Herpes simplex 2, Epstein-Barr virus and Cytomegalovirus in the adult Swedish population over a time period of several decades. METHODS: Serum samples (n = 892) from biobanks, originating from 30-year-old women, 50-year-old men and 50-year-old women sampled between 1975 and 2018, were analyzed for presence of anti-herpesvirus antibodies. Linear regression analysis was used to test for a correlation between birth year and seroprevalence. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to differentiate between other factors such as age and gender. RESULTS: Birth year correlated negatively with the prevalence of immunoglobulin G against Herpes simplex 1 and Epstein-Barr virus (p = 0.004 and 0.033), and positively with Immunoglobulin G against Cytomegalovirus (p = 0.039). When participant categories were analyzed separately, birth year correlated negatively with the prevalence of Immunoglobulin G against Herpes simplex 1 and Herpes simplex 2 (p = 0.032 and 0.028) in 30-year-old women, and with the prevalence of Immunoglobulin G against Cytomegalovirus in 50-year-old men (p = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of Immunoglobulin G against Herpes simplex 1, Herpes simplex 2 and Epstein-Barr virus decreases in later birth cohorts. This indicates a trend of declining risk of getting infected with these viruses as a child and adolescent.

Biochemical activity induced by a germline variation in KLK3 (PSA) associates with cellular function and clinical outcome in prostate cancer.

Genetic variation at the 19q13.3 KLK locus is linked with prostate cancer susceptibility. The non-synonymous KLK3 SNP, rs17632542 (c.536T>C; Ile163Thr-substitution in PSA) is associated with reduced prostate cancer risk, however, the functional relevance is unknown. Here, we identify that the SNP variant-induced change in PSA biochemical activity as a previously undescribed function mediating prostate cancer pathogenesis. The 'Thr' PSA variant led to small subcutaneous tumours, supporting reduced prostate cancer risk. However, 'Thr' PSA also displayed higher metastatic potential with pronounced osteolytic activity in an experimental metastasis in-vivo model. Biochemical characterization of this PSA variant demonstrated markedly reduced proteolytic activity that correlated with differences in in-vivo tumour burden. The SNP is associated with increased risk for aggressive disease and prostate cancer-specific mortality in three independent cohorts, highlighting its critical function in mediating metastasis. Carriers of this SNP allele had reduced serum total PSA and a higher free/total PSA ratio that could contribute to late biopsy decisions and delay in diagnosis. Our results provide a molecular explanation for the prominent 19q13.3 KLK locus, rs17632542 SNP, association with a spectrum of prostate cancer clinical outcomes.

Circulating vitamin D and breast cancer risk: an international pooling project of 17 cohorts.

Laboratory and animal research support a protective role for vitamin D in breast carcinogenesis, but epidemiologic studies have been inconclusive. To examine comprehensively the relationship of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] to subsequent breast cancer incidence, we harmonized and pooled participant-level data from 10 U.S. and 7 European prospective cohorts. Included were 10,484 invasive breast cancer cases and 12,953 matched controls. Median age (interdecile range) was 57 (42-68) years at blood collection and 63 (49-75) years at breast cancer diagnosis. Prediagnostic circulating 25(OH)D was either newly measured using a widely accepted immunoassay and laboratory or, if previously measured by the cohort, calibrated to this assay to permit using a common metric. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) for season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations were estimated by conditional logistic regression and combined by random-effects models. Circulating 25(OH)D increased from a median of 22.6 nmol/L in consortium-wide decile 1 to 93.2 nmol/L in decile 10. Breast cancer risk in each decile was not statistically significantly different from risk in decile 5 in models adjusted for breast cancer risk factors, and no trend was apparent (P-trend = 0.64). Compared to women with sufficient 25(OH)D based on Institute of Medicine guidelines (50- < 62.5 nmol/L), RRs were not statistically significantly different at either low concentrations (< 20 nmol/L, 3% of controls) or high concentrations (100- < 125 nmol/L, 3% of controls; ≥ 125 nmol/L, 0.7% of controls). RR per 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D was 0.99 [95% confidence intervaI (CI) 0.95-1.03]. Associations remained null across subgroups, including those defined by body mass index, physical activity, latitude, and season of blood collection. Although none of the associations by tumor characteristics reached statistical significance, suggestive inverse associations were seen for distant and triple negative tumors. Circulating 25(OH)D, comparably measured in 17 international cohorts and season-standardized, was not related to subsequent incidence of invasive breast cancer over a broad range in vitamin D status.

PILRA polymorphism modifies the effect of APOE4 and GM17 on Alzheimer's disease risk.

PILRA (rs1859788 A > G) has been suggested to be a protective variant for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and is an entry co-receptor for herpes simplex virus-1. We conducted a nested case-control study of 360 1:1-matched AD subjects. Interactions between the PILRA-A allele, APOE risk variants (ε3/ε4 or ε4/ε4) and GM17 for AD risk were modelled. The associations were cross-validated using two independent whole-genome sequencing datasets. We found negative interactions between PILRA-A and GM17 (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52-1.00) and between PILRA-A and APOE risk variants (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.32-0.98) in the discovery dataset. In the replication cohort, a joint effect of PILRA and PILRA × GM 17/17 was observed for the risk of developing AD (p .02). Here, we report a negative effect modification by PILRA on APOE and GM17 high-risk variants for future AD risk in two independent datasets. This highlights the complex genetics of AD.

Identification of prediagnostic metabolites associated with prostate cancer risk by untargeted mass spectrometry-based metabolomics: A case-control study nested in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study.

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common cancer form in males in many European and American countries, but there are still open questions regarding its etiology. Untargeted metabolomics can produce an unbiased global metabolic profile, with the opportunity for uncovering new plasma metabolites prospectively associated with risk of PCa, providing insights into disease etiology. We conducted a prospective untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) metabolomics analysis using prediagnostic fasting plasma samples from 752 PCa case-control pairs nested within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS). The pairs were matched by age, BMI, and sample storage time. Discriminating features were identified by a combination of orthogonal projection to latent structures-effect projections (OPLS-EP) and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Their prospective associations with PCa risk were investigated by conditional logistic regression. Subgroup analyses based on stratification by disease aggressiveness and baseline age were also conducted. Various free fatty acids and phospholipids were positively associated with overall risk of PCa and in various stratification subgroups. Aromatic amino acids were positively associated with overall risk of PCa. Uric acid was positively, and glucose negatively, associated with risk of PCa in the older subgroup. This is the largest untargeted LC-MS based metabolomics study to date on plasma metabolites prospectively associated with risk of developing PCa. Different subgroups of disease aggressiveness and baseline age showed different associations with metabolites. The findings suggest that shifts in plasma concentrations of metabolites in lipid, aromatic amino acid, and glucose metabolism are associated with risk of developing PCa during the following two decades.

Prostate cancer polygenic risk score and prediction of lethal prostate cancer.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for prostate cancer incidence have been proposed to optimize prostate cancer screening. Prediction of lethal prostate cancer is key to any stratified screening program to avoid excessive overdiagnosis. Herein, PRS for incident prostate cancer was evaluated in two population-based cohorts of unscreened middle-aged men linked to cancer and death registries: the Västerbotten Intervention Project (VIP) and the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDC). SNP genotypes were measured by genome-wide SNP genotyping by array followed by imputation or genotyping of selected SNPs using mass spectrometry. The ability of PRS to predict lethal prostate cancer was compared to PSA and a commercialized pre-specified model based on four kallikrein markers. The PRS was associated with incident prostate cancer, replicating previously reported relative risks, and was also associated with prostate cancer death. However, unlike PSA, the PRS did not show stronger association with lethal disease: the hazard ratio for prostate cancer incidence vs. prostate cancer metastasis and death was 1.69 vs. 1.65 in VIP and 1.25 vs. 1.25 in MDC. PSA was a much stronger predictor of prostate cancer metastasis or death with an area-under-the-curve of 0.78 versus 0.63 for the PRS. Importantly, addition of PRS to PSA did not contribute additional risk stratification for lethal prostate cancer. We have shown that a PRS that predicts prostate cancer incidence does not have utility above and beyond that of PSA measured at baseline when applied to the clinically relevant endpoint of prostate cancer death. These findings have implications for public health policies for delivery of prostate cancer screening. Focusing polygenic risk scores on clinically significant endpoints such as prostate cancer metastasis or death would likely improve clinical utility.

Exposome-wide ranking of modifiable risk factors for cardiometabolic disease traits.

The present study assessed the temporal associations of ~ 300 lifestyle exposures with nine cardiometabolic traits  to identify exposures/exposure groups that might inform lifestyle interventions for the reduction of cardiometabolic disease risk. The analyses were undertaken in a longitudinal sample comprising > 31,000 adults living in northern Sweden. Linear mixed models were used to assess the average associations of lifestyle exposures and linear regression models were used to test associations with 10-year change in the cardiometabolic traits. 'Physical activity' and 'General Health' were the exposure categories containing the highest number of 'tentative signals' in analyses assessing the average association of lifestyle variables, while 'Tobacco use' was the top category for the 10-year change association analyses. Eleven modifiable variables showed a consistent average association among the majority of cardiometabolic traits. These variables belonged to the domains: (i) Smoking, (ii) Beverage (filtered coffee), (iii) physical activity, (iv) alcohol intake, and (v) specific variables related to Nordic lifestyle (hunting/fishing during leisure time and boiled coffee consumption). We used an agnostic, data-driven approach to assess a wide range of established and novel risk factors for cardiometabolic disease. Our findings highlight key variables, along with their respective effect estimates, that might be prioritised for subsequent prediction models and lifestyle interventions.

An inverse association between plasma benzoxazinoid metabolites and PSA after rye intake in men with prostate cancer revealed with a new method.

Prostate cancer (PC) is a common cancer among men, and preventive strategies are warranted. Benzoxazinoids (BXs) in rye have shown potential against PC in vitro but human studies are lacking. The aim was to establish a quantitative method for analysis of BXs and investigate their plasma levels after a whole grain/bran rye vs refined wheat intervention, as well as exploring their association with PSA, in men with PC. A quantitative method for analysis of 22 BXs, including novel metabolites identified by mass spectrometry and NMR, was established, and applied to plasma samples from a randomized crossover study where patients with indolent PC (n = 17) consumed 485 g whole grain rye/rye bran or fiber supplemented refined wheat daily for 6 wk. Most BXs were significantly higher in plasma after rye (0.3-19.4 nmol/L in plasma) vs. refined wheat (0.05-2.9 nmol/L) intake. HBOA-glc, 2-HHPAA, HBOA-glcA, 2-HPAA-glcA were inversely correlated to PSA in plasma (p < 0.04). To conclude, BXs in plasma, including metabolites not previously analyzed, were quantified. BX metabolites were significantly higher after rye vs refined wheat consumption. Four BX-related metabolites were inversely associated with PSA, which merits further investigation.

The effects of fermented rye products on gut microbiota and their association with metabolic factors in Chinese adults - an explorative study.

Rye is among the cereals with the highest content of dietary fibre. A high rye food intake has been associated with improved metabolic risk factors in some but not all observational and intervention studies. Whole-grain rye has also been suggested to affect the gut microbiota in individuals with metabolic syndrome. However, it is yet unclear to what extent effects on the gut microbiota mediate the beneficial metabolic responses of whole-grain rye intake. We hypothesized that a high intake of whole grain rye products containing fermented rye bran (FRB) vs. refined wheat based products (RW) could alter the gut microbiota and short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) composition towards a phenotype associated with beneficial metabolic effects in a population not used to such foods. For this purpose, we conducted a post hoc analysis of a 12-week randomized controlled trial in Chinese adults with Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection, with 53 participants consuming RW and 31 participants consuming FRB included in the analysis. Anthropometric measurements and fasting blood and fecal sample analyses as well as 13C-urea breath test were performed at baseline and after a 12-week intervention. At week 12, we observed a higher serum insulin concentration (P-value = 0.038) in the FRB group (n = 31) versus the RW group (n = 53), and this difference was corroborated with alterations in the genus-level relative abundances of the gut microbiota, represented by an increase in Romboutsia and a reduction in Bilophila in the FRB group (n = 22) versus the RW group (n = 46). Compared to the RW group (n = 53), fecal acetic acid concentration was significantly higher in the FRB group (n = 31) at week 12. We also found that fecal acetic and butyric acids positively, while isobutyric, isovaleric and 2-methylbutyric acids inversely, correlated with the gut Romboutsia level among all participants (n = 68) at week 12. We found positive correlations of fecal isobutyric, isovaleric and 2-methylbutyric acids with gut Bilophila (n = 68). In conclusion, our results suggest that the intake of high-fibre rye products could modify gut Romboutsia and Bilophila in a Chinese population with HP infection. These effects are paralleled with favorable modifications of the SCFA concentration and are associated with altered glycemic traits.

Prolactin and Risk of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prolactin is synthesized in the ovaries and may play a role in ovarian cancer etiology. One prior prospective study observed a suggestive positive association between prolactin levels and risk of ovarian cancer. METHODS: We conducted a pooled case-control study of 703 cases and 864 matched controls nested within five prospective cohorts. We used unconditional logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between prolactin and ovarian cancer risk. We examined heterogeneity by menopausal status at blood collection, body mass index (BMI), age, and histotype. RESULTS: Among women with known menopausal status, we observed a positive trend in the association between prolactin and ovarian cancer risk (P trend = 0.045; OR, quartile 4 vs. 1 = 1.34; 95% CI = 0.97-1.85), but no significant association was observed for premenopausal or postmenopausal women individually (corresponding OR = 1.38; 95% CI = 0.74-2.58; P trend = 0.32 and OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 0.93-2.13; P trend = 0.08, respectively; P heterogeneity = 0.91). In stratified analyses, we observed a positive association between prolactin and risk for women with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, but not BMI < 25 kg/m2 (corresponding OR = 2.68; 95% CI = 1.56-4.59; P trend < 0.01 and OR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.58-1.40; P trend = 0.98, respectively; P heterogeneity < 0.01). Associations did not vary by age, postmenopausal hormone therapy use, histotype, or time between blood draw and diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: We found a trend between higher prolactin levels and increased ovarian cancer risk, especially among women with a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. IMPACT: This work supports a previous study linking higher prolactin with ovarian carcinogenesis in a high adiposity setting. Future work is needed to understand the mechanism underlying this association.

Breast Cancer Risk Factors and Circulating Anti-Müllerian Hormone Concentration in Healthy Premenopausal Women.

CONTEXT: We previously reported that anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), a marker of ovarian reserve, is positively associated with breast cancer risk, consistent with other studies. OBJECTIVE: This study assessed whether risk factors for breast cancer are correlates of AMH concentration. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 3831 healthy premenopausal women (aged 21-57, 87% aged 35-49) from 10 cohort studies among the general population. RESULTS: Adjusting for age and cohort, AMH positively associated with age at menarche (P < 0.0001) and parity (P = 0.0008) and inversely associated with hysterectomy/partial oophorectomy (P = 0.0008). Compared with women of normal weight, AMH was lower (relative geometric mean difference 27%, P < 0.0001) among women who were obese. Current oral contraceptive (OC) use and current/former smoking were associated with lower AMH concentration than never use (40% and 12% lower, respectively, P < 0.0001). We observed higher AMH concentrations among women who had had a benign breast biopsy (15% higher, P = 0.03), a surrogate for benign breast disease, an association that has not been reported. In analyses stratified by age (<40 vs ≥40), associations of AMH with body mass index and OCs were similar in younger and older women, while associations with the other factors (menarche, parity, hysterectomy/partial oophorectomy, smoking, and benign breast biopsy) were limited to women ≥40 (P-interaction < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This is the largest study of AMH and breast cancer risk factors among women from the general population (not presenting with infertility), and it suggests that most associations are limited to women over 40, who are approaching menopause and whose AMH concentration is declining.

Plasma Amyloid-ß in Relation to Antibodies Against Herpes Simplex Virus, Cytomegalovirus, and Chlamydophila pneumoniae.

BACKGROUND: Amyloid-ß (Aß), the key constituent of Alzheimer's disease (AD) plaques, has antimicrobial properties. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between plasma Aß and antibodies against the AD-related pathogens herpes simplex virus (HSV), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and C. pneumoniae. METHODS: Plasma from 339 AD cases, obtained on average 9.4 years (±4.00) before diagnosis, and their matched controls were analyzed for Aß40 and Aß42 concentrations with Luminex xMAP technology and INNOBIA plasma Aß-form assays. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were utilized for analyses of anti-HSV immunoglobulin (Ig) G, anti-HSV1 IgG, anti-HSV2 IgG, anti-CMV IgG, and anti-C. pneumoniae IgG. Follow-up samples were available for 150 of the cases. RESULTS: Presence and levels of anti-HSV1 IgG, anti-HSV2 IgG, anti-CMV IgG, and anti-C. pneumoniae IgG did not correlate with concentrations of Aß42 or Aß40 in cases or controls. CONCLUSION: Levels of plasma Aß were not associated with antibodies against different AD-related pathogens.

Association of Established Blood Pressure Loci With 10-Year Change in Blood Pressure and Their Ability to Predict Incident Hypertension.

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified >1000 genetic variants cross-sectionally associated with blood pressure variation and prevalent hypertension. These discoveries might aid the early identification of subpopulations at risk of developing hypertension or provide targets for drug development, amongst other applications. The aim of the present study was to analyze the association of blood pressure-associated variants with long-term changes (10 years) in blood pressure and also to assess their ability to predict hypertension incidence compared with traditional risk variables in a Swedish population. Methods and Results We constructed 6 genetic risk scores (GRSs) by summing the dosage of the effect allele at each locus of genetic variants previously associated with blood pressure traits (systolic blood pressure GRS (GRSSBP): 554 variants; diastolic blood pressure GRS (GRSDBP): 481 variants; mean arterial pressure GRS (GRSMAP): 20 variants; pulse pressure GRS (GRSPP): 478 variants; hypertension GRS (GRSHTN): 22 variants; combined GRS (GRScomb): 1152 variants). Each GRS was longitudinally associated with its corresponding blood pressure trait, with estimated effects per GRS SD unit of 0.50 to 1.21 mm Hg for quantitative traits and odds ratios (ORs) of 1.10 to 1.35 for hypertension incidence traits. The GRScomb was also significantly associated with hypertension incidence defined according to European guidelines (OR, 1.22 per SD; 95% CI, 1.10‒1.35) but not US guidelines (OR, 1.11 per SD; 95% CI, 0.99‒1.25) while controlling for traditional risk factors. The addition of GRScomb to a model containing traditional risk factors only marginally improved discrimination (Δarea under the ROC curve = 0.001-0.002). Conclusions GRSs based on discovered blood pressure-associated variants are associated with long-term changes in blood pressure traits and hypertension incidence, but the inclusion of genetic factors in a model composed of conventional hypertension risk factors did not yield a material increase in predictive ability.

Identification of metabolites associated with prostate cancer risk: a nested case-control study with long follow-up in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in men. Metabolomics can potentially provide new insights into the aetiology of prostate cancer by identifying new metabolic risk factors. This study investigated the prospective association between plasma metabolite concentrations and prostate cancer risk, both overall and by stratifying for disease aggressiveness and baseline age. METHODS: In a case-control study nested in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study, pre-diagnostic concentrations of 148 plasma metabolites were determined using targeted mass spectrometry- and nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics in 777 prostate cancer cases (follow-up ≥ 5 years) and 777 matched controls. Associations between prostate cancer risk and metabolite concentrations were investigated using conditional logistic regression conditioned on matching factors (body mass index, age and sample storage time). Corrections for multiple testing were performed using false discovery rate (20%) and Bonferroni. Metabolomics analyses generated new hypotheses, which were investigated by leveraging food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and oral glucose tolerance tests performed at baseline. RESULTS: After correcting for multiple testing, two lysophosphatidylcholines (LPCs) were positively associated with risk of overall prostate cancer (all ages and in older subjects). The strongest association was for LPC C17:0 in older subjects (OR = 2.08; 95% CI 1.45-2.98; p < 0.0001, significant also after the Bonferroni correction). Observed associations with risk of overall prostate cancer in younger subjects were positive for glycine and inverse for pyruvate. For aggressive prostate cancer, there were positive associations with six glycerophospholipids (LPC C17:0, LPC C20:3, LPC C20:4, PC ae C38:3, PC ae C38:4 and PC ae C40:2), while there was an inverse association with acylcarnitine C18:2. Moreover, plasma LPC C17:0 concentrations positively correlated with estimated dietary intake of fatty acid C17:0 from the FFQs. The associations between glycerophospholipids and prostate cancer were stronger in case-controls with normal glucose tolerance. CONCLUSIONS: Several glycerophospholipids were positively associated with risk of overall and aggressive prostate cancer. The strongest association was observed for LPC C17:0. The associations between glycerophospholipids and prostate cancer risk were stronger in case-controls with normal glucose tolerance, suggesting a link between the glucose metabolism status and risk of prostate cancer.

An Ig γ Marker Genotype Is a Strong Risk Factor for Alzheimer Disease, Independent of Apolipoprotein E ε4 Genotype.

Increasing evidence implicates HSV type 1 (HSV1) in the pathogenesis of late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD). HSV1 has evolved highly sophisticated strategies to evade host immunosurveillance. One strategy involves encoding a decoy Fcγ receptor (FcγR), which blocks Fc-mediated effector functions, such as Ab-dependent cellular cytotoxicity. Ig γ marker (GM) allotypes, encoded by highly polymorphic IGHG genes on chromosome 14q32, modulate this immunoevasion strategy, and thus may act as effect modifiers of the HSV1-AD association. In this nested case-control human study, 365 closely matched case-control pairs-whose blood was drawn on average 9.6 y before AD diagnosis-were typed for GM alleles by a TaqMan genotyping assay. APOE genotype and a genetic risk score based on nine additional previously known AD risk genes (ABCA7, BIN1, CD33, CLU, CR1, EPHA1, MS4A4E, NECTIN2, and PICALM) were extracted from a genome-wide association study analysis. Antiviral Abs were measured by ELISA. Conditional logistic regression models were applied. The distribution of GM 3/17 genotypes differed significantly between AD cases and controls, with higher frequency of GM 17/17 homozygotes in AD cases as compared with controls (19.8 versus 10.7%, p = 0.001). The GM 17/17 genotype was associated with a 4-fold increased risk of AD (odds ratio 4.142, p < 0.001). In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate that Ig GM 17/17 genotype contributes to the risk of later AD development, independent of apolipoprotein ε4 genotype and other AD risk genes, and explain, at least in part, why every HSV1-infected person is not equally likely to develop HSV1-associated AD.

Prespecified 4-Kallikrein Marker Model at Age 50 or 60 for Early Detection of Lethal Prostate Cancer in a Large Population Based Cohort of Asymptomatic Men Followed for 20 Years.

PURPOSE: A prespecified statistical model based on 4 kallikrein markers in blood, commercially available as the 4Kscore®, has been shown to accurately detect high grade (greater than Grade Group 2) prostate cancer in men with moderately elevated prostate specific antigen. We assessed whether the model predicted prostate cancer metastasis or death in men not subject to prostate specific antigen screening. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cohort includes 43,692 unscreened prostate cancer-free men from a Swedish population based cohort with low rates of prostate specific antigen screening (Västerbotten Intervention Project). Using cryopreserved blood collected at ages 50 and 60 years from men in this cohort we analyzed the association between prostate specific antigen and other kallikrein marker levels in blood and risk of prostate cancer metastasis or death. RESULTS: There were 308 with metastases and 172 prostate cancer deaths. Baseline prostate specific antigen was strongly associated with 20-year risk of prostate cancer death (c-index at age 50, 0.859, 95% CI 0.799-0.916; age 60, 0.840, 95% CI 0.799-0.878). Men 60 years old with prostate specific antigen below median (less than 1.2 ng/ml) had 0.4% risk of prostate cancer death at 20 years. Among men with moderately elevated prostate specific antigen (2.0 ng/ml or greater) the 4Kscore markedly improved discrimination (c-index 0.767 vs 0.828 and 0.774 vs 0.862 in men age 50 and 60, respectively). Long-term risk of prostate cancer death or metastasis in men with low 4Kscores was very low. CONCLUSIONS: Screening should focus on men in top prostate specific antigen quartile at age 60 years. Men with elevated prostate specific antigen but a low 4Kscore can safely be monitored with repeated blood markers in place of immediate biopsy.