Irish soil and land-use classifications as predictors of numbers of badgers and badger setts.

This study investigated possible associations between soil types, land use and badger numbers in an area of the Irish Midlands where badger removal had been conducted during 1989-1994. For this purpose, the area was divided into approximately 2500 geo-referenced square grids of 0.5 degrees km per side. For the outcomes (setts per grid, badgers per grid and tuberculous badgers per grid), Poisson models of land use, of soil type, and a combination of these two were developed. Influential grids were removed and the models adjusted for over-dispersion in the badger outcomes. Mineral-based soils, dry and very-dry peat soils supported increased numbers of setts and badgers. High-quality pasture was the major land use (pastures often are found on mineral-based soils) and supported increased numbers of setts, badgers, and tuberculous badgers. "Natural" areas also supported more setts and broad-leaf forested areas were associated with increased tuberculous badger numbers. Discontinuous urban areas tended to decrease sett numbers per grid. Hedgerow length was not an important predictor given the information on soil type and land use. Spatial correlations existed for badger setts in 1 degrees km grids, for badger numbers in 1.5 degrees km grids, and for tuberculous badgers in 2 degrees km grids. The latter two grids have approximately the same area as the territory size used by a social group of badgers. There were no spatial correlations at the smallest (0.5 km) grid size.

The association between the bovine tuberculosis status of herds in the East Offaly Project Area, and the distance to badger setts, 1988-1993.

The proximity of farms to badger setts was compared between farms that had experienced a tuberculosis breakdown and those that had not, over the 6 year period from 1988 to 1993. The data were derived from a badger removal study conducted in East Offaly County in the Republic of Ireland. Badger removal began in 1989 and continued through 1993; by the end of 1990, approximately 80% of all badgers caught in the 6 year period had been removed. All badgers were examined, grossly, for evidence of tuberculosis. Tuberculosis status of the approximately 900 study herds was based on the results of the single intradermal comparative skin test and/or lesions of bovine tuberculosis. All herds were tested at least once annually. The number of herds experiencing bovine tuberculosis declined over the period, particularly in the years 1992 and 1993. The data on farm and badger sett location were stored and analysed, initially, in a geographical information system. Owing to the badger removal programme, the distance between the barn yard of a typical farm and the nearest occupied badger sett increased, by about 300 m year-1, and by about 600 m year-1 to the closest infected sett. In bivariate analyses, in the years 1988 and 1989, the risk of tuberculosis declined with increasing distance to a badger sett containing one or more tuberculous badgers. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, year and the average number of cattle tested per farm per year were controlled. A second identical analysis was conducted to control for the repeated observations on the same herds using generalised estimating equations. In both analyses, the risk of a multiple reactor tuberculosis breakdown decreased for herds at least 1000 m away from an infected badger sett, and increased as the number of infected badgers per infected sett increased. Despite the significantly reduced risk of a breakdown with increasing distance to infected badger setts, the relationship was not strong (sensitivity and specificity of the model in the low 70% range) and explained only 9-19% of tuberculosis breakdowns.