Transitioning to home and beyond following stroke: a prospective cohort study of outcomes and needs.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding of the needs of people with stroke at hospital discharge and in the first six-months is limited. This study aim was to profile and document the needs of people with stroke at hospital discharge to home and thereafter. METHODS: A prospective cohort study recruiting individuals with stroke, from three hospitals, who transitioned home, either directly, through rehabilitation, or with early supported discharge teams. Their outcomes (global-health, cognition, function, quality of life, needs) were described using validated questionnaires and a needs survey, at 7-10 days, and at 3-, and 6-months, post-discharge. RESULTS: 72 patients were available at hospital discharge; mean age 70 (SD 13); 61% female; median NIHSS score of 4 (IQR 0-20). 62 (86%), 54 (75%), and 45 (63%) individuals were available respectively at each data collection time-point. Perceived disability was considerable at hospital discharge (51% with mRS ≥ 3), and while it improved at 3-months, it increased thereafter (35% with mRS ≥ 3 at 6-months). Mean physical health and social functioning were "fair" at hospital discharge and ongoing; while HR-QOL, although improved over time, remained impaired at 6-months (0.69+/-0.28). At 6-months cognitive impairment was present in 40%. Unmet needs included involvement in transition planning and care decisions, with ongoing rehabilitation, information, and support needs. The median number of unmet needs at discharge to home was four (range:1-9), and three (range:1-7) at 6-months. CONCLUSION: Stroke community reintegration is challenging for people with stroke and their families, with high levels of unmet need. Profiling outcomes and unmet needs for people with stroke at hospital-to-home transition and onwards are crucial for shaping the development of effective support interventions to be delivered at this juncture. ISRCTN REGISTRATION: 02/08/2022; ISRCTN44633579.

Suboptimal lipid management before and after ischaemic stroke and TIA-the North Dublin Population Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND: Few population-based studies have assessed lipid adherence to international guidelines for primary and secondary prevention in stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) patients. AIMS: This study aims to evaluate adherence to lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) guidelines amongst patients with ischaemic stroke/TIA. METHODS: Using hot and cold pursuit methods from multiple hospital/community sources, all stroke and TIA cases in North Dublin City were prospectively ascertained over a 1-year period. Adherence to National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) III guidelines, before and after index ischaemic stroke/TIA, was assessed. RESULTS: Amongst 616 patients (428 ischaemic stroke, 188 TIA), total cholesterol was measured following the qualifying event in 76.5% (471/616) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) in 60.1% (370/616). At initial stroke/TIA presentation, 54.1% (200/370) met NCEP III LDL goals. Compliance was associated with prior stroke (odds ratio [OR] 2.19, p = 0.02), diabetes (OR 1.91, p = 0.04), hypertension (OR 1.57, p = 0.03), atrial fibrillation (OR 1.78, p = 0.01), pre-event LLT (OR 2.85, p < 0.001) and higher individual LDL goal (p = 0.001). At stroke/TIA onset, 32.7% (195/596) was on LLT. Nonetheless, LDL exceeded individual NCEP goal in 29.2% (56/192); 21.6% (53/245) warranting LLT was not on treatment prior to stroke/TIA onset. After index stroke/TIA, 75.9% (422/556) was on LLT; 15.3% (30/196) meeting NCEP III criteria was not prescribed a statin as recommended. By 2 years, actuarial survival was 72.8% and 11.9% (59/497) experienced stroke recurrence. No association was observed between initial post-event target adherence and 2-year outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, LLT recommended by international guidelines was under-used, before and after index stroke/TIA. Strategies to improve adherence are needed.

Why do transient ischemic attack patients have higher early stroke recurrence risk than those with ischemic stroke? Influence of patient behavior and other risk factors in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study.

Background Few studies have directly compared stroke recurrence rates after stroke and transient ischemic attack, and the risk factors underlying early recurrence are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate risk factors for recurrent stroke after first stroke and transient ischemic attack in a population-based study. Methods The North Dublin Population Stroke Study applied multiple overlapping hot and cold pursuit methods, to ascertain hospital- and community-treated stroke and transient ischemic attack patients over a 12-month period. Inclusion criteria were: (1) Stroke-physician confirmed transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke; (2) first-stroke/transient ischemic attack event within the ascertainment period. Patients were prospectively followed at 72 h, 7, 28 and 90 days. Results A total of 584 patients met eligibility criteria (172 transient ischemic attack, 412 stroke). More transient ischemic attack than stroke patients presented to medical attention with recurrent stroke (8.24% vs. 0.24%, p = 0.0002). Recurrent stroke was more common after transient ischemic attack than index stroke at each time-interval (at 72 h, 4.07% vs. 1.23%, p = 0.03; at 90 days, 13.45% vs. 5.72%, p = 0.002). Stroke recurrence at 90 days was also associated with delay seeking medical attention after the index event (OR 3.2, p = 0.001), delayed anti-platelet (OR 2.8, p = 0.001) and statin (OR 2.4, p = 0.009) treatment, carotid stenosis/occlusion (OR 2.4, p = 0.008). On multivariable analysis, transient ischemic attack as index event (adjusted OR 2.3, p = 0.02), delayed statin treatment (OR 2.5, p = 0.02), and carotid stenosis/occlusion (OR 2.4, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of 90-day recurrent stroke. Conclusion A combination of pathophysiological and behavioral factors was associated with early stroke recurrence risk. Improved public awareness to reduce delays to self-referral for transient ischemic attack symptoms is needed.

Rates, Predictors, and Outcomes of Early and Late Recurrence After Stroke: The North Dublin Population Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Few recent studies have investigated the rates and predictors of early and late stroke recurrence using prospective population-based methodology. We investigated recurrent stroke at 2 years in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study (NDPSS). METHODS: Patients were ascertained from December 2005 to 2006 from overlapping community and hospital sources using hot and cold pursuit. Stroke recurrence, survival, and functional outcome were ascertained at 72 hours, 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. RESULTS: Of 567 patients, cumulative 2-year stroke recurrence rate was 10.8% and case fatality was 38.6%. Recurrence subtype was associated with initial stroke subtype (P<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression, hyperlipidemia (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.32; P=0.005) and prior stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.92; P=0.01) were independent predictors of 2-year recurrence in 28-day survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Despite rigorous ascertainment, recurrent stroke rates were lower in current study than in earlier studies. Our data suggest that large sample sizes may be needed for future secondary prevention trials in patients treated with modern preventive medications.

Rates and Determinants of 5-Year Outcomes After Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke: A Population Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Demographic trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence may yield a substantial rise in the societal burden of AF-related stroke (AF-stroke). Accurate population-wide outcome data are essential to inform health service planning to improve AF-stroke prevention, and provision of rehabilitation, nursing home, and community supports for AF-stroke survivors. METHODS: We investigated rates and determinants of 5-year fatality, stroke recurrence, functional outcomes, and prescribing of secondary prevention medications in AF-stroke in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study. Ascertainment included hot and cold pursuit using multiple overlapping sources. Survival analysis was performed using lifetables and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and Cox proportional hazard modeling was performed to identify predictors of death and recurrent stroke. RESULTS: Five hundred sixty-eight patients with new stroke were identified, including 177 (31.2%) AF-stroke. At 5 years, 39.2% (confidence interval, 31.5-46.8) of ischemic AF-stroke patients were alive. Congestive heart failure, hypertension, age <65, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism, vascular disease and female sex (CHA2DS2-VASc) score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; P<0.001), CHADS2 score (HR 1.42, P=0.004), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (HR, 1.09; P<0.0001), and subtherapeutic international normalized ratio (<2.0) at stroke onset (HR, 3.29; P=0.003) were independently associated with 5-year fatality, whereas warfarin (HR, 0.40; P=0.001) and statin use after index stroke (HR, 0.52; P=0.005) were associated with improved survival. The 5-year recurrence rate after ischemic AF-stroke was 21.5% (confidence interval, 14.5-31.3). Trends toward greater risk of recurrence were observed for persistent AF (HR, 3.09; P=0.07) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR, 1.34; P=0.07). Nursing home care was needed for 25.9% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: AF-stroke is associated with considerable long-term morbidity, fatality, stroke recurrence, and nursing home requirement. Adequately resourced national AF strategies to improve AF detection and prevention are needed.

Antithrombotic treatment at onset of stroke with atrial fibrillation, functional outcome, and fatality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In atrial fibrillation-associated stroke, conflicting data exist regarding association between therapeutic vitamin K-antagonist anticoagulation (International Normalized Ratio 2-3) and early death and functional outcome, and few data exist relating to late outcome in ischemic and haemorrhagic atrial fibrillation-stroke. AIM: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of oral anticoagulation at stroke onset, death and functional outcome. METHODS: We performed a systematic review, searching multiple sources. Studies were included if outcomes in atrial fibrillation-associated stroke were reported stratified by pre-stroke antithrombotic status, with documented International Normalized Ratio at onset. Outcomes were survival and good functional outcome (modified Rankin score 0-2) at discharge/30 days, and at one-year. RESULTS: Of eight studies (3552 patients) in ischemic stroke, International Normalized Ratio ≥ 2 compared with other treatments (International Normalized Ratio < 2, antiplatelet, or no antithrombotic) was associated with good outcome [pooled odds ratio 1·9 (95% confidence interval) 1·5-2·5, P < 0·001] and improved survival at 30 days discharge (pooled odds ratio for death 0·4, confidence interval 0·2-0·5, P < 0·001). The net benefit remained after inclusion of haemorrhagic stroke (odds ratio for good outcome 1·89, confidence interval 1·45-2·46, P < 0·001). At one-year, improved functional outcome for International Normalized Ratio ≥ 2 (pooled odds ratio 1·7, confidence interval 1·0-2·7, P = 0·04) and survival (odds ratio for death 0·5, confidence interval 0·4-0·8, P = 0·001) were also observed. CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic International Normalized Ratio at stroke onset was associated with early and late improved survival and functional recovery suggesting sustained benefit for warfarin anticoagulation for stroke outcome in atrial fibrillation patients. Long-term outcome data following stroke in patients taking new oral anticoagulants is required.

Acute hospital, community, and indirect costs of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation: population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: No economic data from population-based studies exist on acute or late hospital, community, and indirect costs of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation (AF-stroke). Such data are essential for policy development, service planning, and cost-effectiveness analysis of new therapeutic agents. METHODS: In a population-based prospective study of incident and recurrent stroke treated in hospital and community settings, we investigated direct (healthcare related) and indirect costs for a 2-year period. Survival, disability, poststroke residence, and healthcare use were determined at 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. Acute hospital cost was determined using a case-mix approach, and other costs using a bottom-up approach (2007 prices). RESULTS: In 568 patients ascertained in 1 year (2006), the total estimated 2-year cost was $33.84 million. In the overall sample, AF-stroke accounted for 31% (177) of patients, but a higher proportion of costs (40.5% of total and 45% of nursing home costs). On a per-patient basis compared with non-AF-stroke, AF-stroke was associated with higher total (P<0.001) and acute hospital costs (P<0.001), and greater nursing home (P=0.001) and general practitioner (P<0.001) costs among 90-day survivors. After stratification by stroke severity in survivors, AF was associated with 2-fold increase in costs in patients with mild-moderate (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, 0-15) stroke (P<0.001) but not in severe stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥16; P=0.7). CONCLUSIONS: In our population study, AF-stroke was associated with substantially higher total, acute hospital, nursing home, and general practitioner costs per patient. Targeted programs to identify AF and prevent AF-stroke may have significant economic benefits, in addition to health benefits.

Statin therapy and outcome after ischemic stroke: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomized trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although experimental data suggest that statin therapy may improve neurological outcome after acute cerebral ischemia, the results from clinical studies are conflicting. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the relationship between statin therapy and outcome after ischemic stroke. METHODS: The primary analysis investigated statin therapy at stroke onset (prestroke statin use) and good functional outcome (modified Rankin score 0 to 2) and death. Secondary analyses included the following: (1) acute poststroke statin therapy (≤ 72 hours after stroke), and (2) thrombolysis-treated patients. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 113 148 subjects (27 studies). Among observational studies, statin treatment at stroke onset was associated with good functional outcome at 90 days (pooled odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-1.56; P<0.001), but not 1 year (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.9-1.4; P=0.31), and with reduced fatality at 90 days (pooled OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.62-0.82; P<0.001) and 1 year (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.95; P=0.01). In the single randomized controlled trial reporting 90-day functional outcome, statin treatment was associated with good outcome (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.24; P=0.05). No reduction in fatality was observed on meta-analysis of data from 3 randomized controlled trials (P=0.9). In studies restricted to of thrombolysis-treated patients, an association between statins and increased fatality at 90 days was observed (pooled OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52; P=0.03, 3 studies, 4339 patients). However, this association was no longer present after adjusting for age and stroke severity in the largest study (adjusted OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.90-1.44; 4012 patients). CONCLUSIONS: In the largest meta-analysis to date, statin therapy at stroke onset was associated with improved outcome, a finding not observed in studies restricted to thrombolysis-treated patients. Randomized trials of statin therapy in acute ischemic stroke are needed.

Incidence, event rates, and early outcome of stroke in Dublin, Ireland: the North Dublin population stroke study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The World Health Organization has emphasized the importance of international population-based data for unbiased surveillance of stroke incidence and outcome. To date, few such studies have been conducted using recommended gold-standard ascertainment methods. We conducted a large, population-based stroke study in Dublin, Ireland. METHODS: Using gold-standard ascertainment methods, individuals with stroke and transient ischemic attack occurring over a 12-month period (December 1, 2005-November 30, 2006) in North Dublin were identified. Disability was assessed using the modified Rankin score and stroke severity (<72 hours) by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Stroke-related deaths were confirmed by review of medical files, death certificates, pathology, and coroner's records. Crude and standardized (to European and World Health Organization standard populations) rates of incidence, risk factors, severity, and early outcome (mortality, case-fatality, disability) were calculated, assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of events. RESULTS: Seven hundred one patients with new stroke or transient ischemic attack were ascertained (485 first-ever stroke patients, 83 recurrent stroke patients, 133 first-ever transient ischemic attack patients). Crude frequency rates (all rates per 1000 person-years) were: 1.65 (95% CI, 1.5-1.79; first-ever stroke), 0.28 (95% CI, 0.22-0.35; recurrent stroke), and 0.45 (95% CI, 0.37-0.53; first-ever transient ischemic attack). Age-adjusted stroke rates were higher than those in 9 other recent population-based samples from high-income countries. High rates of subtype-specific risk factors were observed (atrial fibrillation, 31.3% and smoking, 29.1% in ischemic stroke; warfarin use, 21.2% in primary intracerebral hemorrhage; smoking, 53.9% in subarachnoid hemorrhage; P<0.01 for all compared with other subtypes). Compared with recent studies, 28-day case-fatality rates for primary intracerebral hemorrhage (41%; 95% CI, 29.2%-54.1%) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (46%; 95% CI, 28.8%-64.5%) were greater in Dublin. CONCLUSIONS: Using gold-standard methods for case ascertainment, we found high incidence rates of stroke in Dublin compared with those in similar high-income countries; this is likely explained in part by high rates of subtype-specific risk factors.

Carotid plaque inflammation on 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography predicts early stroke recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: Symptomatic carotid stenosis is associated with a 3-fold risk of early stroke recurrence compared to other stroke subtypes. Current carotid imaging techniques rely on estimating plaque-related lumen narrowing but do not evaluate intraplaque inflammation, a key mediator of plaque rupture and thromboembolism. Using combined (18) F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography (FDG-PET)/computed tomography, we investigated the relation between inflammation-related FDG uptake and stroke recurrence. METHODS: Consecutive patients with a recent (median, 6.5 days; interquartile range, 4-8) stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or retinal embolism and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (≥50%) were included. FDG uptake was quantified as mean standardized uptake values (SUVs, g/ml). Patients were followed prospectively for stroke recurrence. RESULTS: Sixty patients were included (25 stroke, 29 TIA, 6 retinal embolism). Twenty-two percent (13 of 60) had stroke recurrence within 90 days. FDG uptake in ipsilateral carotid plaque was greater in patients with early recurrent stroke (mean SUV, 1.85 g/ml; standard deviation [SD], 0.44 vs 1.58 g/ml; SD, 0.32, p = 0.02). On life-table analysis, 90-day recurrence rates with mean SUV greater than a 2.14 g/ml threshold were 80% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41.8-99.2) versus 22.9% (95% CI, 12.3-40.3) with SUV ≤2.14 g/ml (log-rank, p < 0.0001). In a Cox regression model including age and degree of stenosis (50-69% or ≥70%), mean plaque FDG uptake was the only independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 6.1; 95% CI, 1.3-28.8; p = 0.02). INTERPRETATION: In recently symptomatic carotid stenosis, inflammation-related FDG uptake was associated with early stroke recurrence, independent of the degree of stenosis. Plaque FDG-PET may identify patients at highest risk for stroke recurrence, who may be selected for immediate revascularization or intensive medical treatment.

Improved late survival and disability after stroke with therapeutic anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation: a population study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although therapeutic anticoagulation improves early (within 1 month) outcomes after ischemic stroke in hospital-admitted patients with atrial fibrillation, no information exists on late outcomes in unselected population-based studies, including patients with all stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic). METHODS: We identified patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke in a prospective, population-based study in North Dublin. Clinical characteristics, stroke subtype, stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale), prestroke antithrombotic medication, and International Normalized Ratio (INR) at onset were documented. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score was measured before stroke and at 7, 28, and 90 days; 1 year; and 2 years after stroke. RESULTS: One hundred seventy-five patients had atrial fibrillation-associated stroke and medication data at stroke onset (159 ischemic, 16 hemorrhagic); 17% of those with ischemic stroke were anticoagulated before stroke (27 of 159.) On multivariable analysis, therapeutic INR was associated with improved late survival after ischemic stroke (adjusted 2-year odds ratio for death=0.08; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.78; P=0.03). This survival benefit persisted when patients with hemorrhagic stroke were included (2-year survival; 70.5% therapeutic INR, 14.3% nontherapeutic INR; log-rank P<0.001; odds ratio for death=0.27; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.88; P=0.03). Admission INR was inversely correlated with early and late modified Rankin Scale score (2-year Spearman ρ=-0.65; P<0.0003). An INR of 2 to 3 at ischemic stroke onset was associated with greater early (72 hours to 28 days) modified Rankin Scale score improvement (P=0.04) and good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score=0 to 2) at 1 year (adjusted odds ratio=4.8; 95% CI, 1.45 to 23.8; P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to improving short-term outcome in selected hospital-treated patient groups, therapeutic anticoagulation may provide important benefits for long-term stroke outcomes in unselected populations.

Association between acute statin therapy, survival, and improved functional outcome after ischemic stroke: the North Dublin Population Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statins improve infarct volume and neurological outcome in animal stroke models. We investigated the relationship between statin therapy and ischemic stroke outcome in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study was performed using rigorous ascertainment methods. Prestroke and acute (≤72 hours) poststroke medications were recorded. Modified Rankin score and fatality were assessed at 7, 28, and 90 days and 1 year. RESULTS: Of 448 ischemic stroke patients, statins were prescribed before stroke onset in 30.1% (134/445) and were begun acutely (≤72 hours) in an additional 42.5% (189/445). On logistic regression analysis, adjusting for age, prestroke disability (modified Rankin scale), NIHSS score, hypertension, and aspirin, new poststroke statin therapy was independently associated with improved early and late survival (compared with statin untreated patients: OR for death, 0.12; CI, 0.03-0.54 at 7 days; OR, 0.19; CI, 0.07-0.48 at 90 days; OR, 0.26; CI, 0.12-0.55 at 1 year; P≤0.006 for all). Similar findings were observed for statin therapy before stroke onset (adjusted OR for death compared with statin-untreated-patients, 0.04; CI, 0.00-0.33; P=0.003 at 7 days; OR, 0.23; CI, 0.09-0.58; P=0.002 at 90 days; OR, 0.48; CI, 0.23-1.01; P=0.05 at 1 year). CONCLUSIONS: Statin therapy at stroke onset and newly begun statins were associated with improved early and late outcomes, supporting data from experimental studies. Randomized trials of statin therapy for treatment of acute stroke are needed.

Stroke subtype classification to mechanism-specific and undetermined categories by TOAST, A-S-C-O, and causative classification system: direct comparison in the North Dublin population stroke study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reliable etiologic classification of ischemic stroke may enhance clinical trial design and identification of subtype-specific environmental and genetic risk factors. Although new classification systems (Causative Classification System [CCS] and ASCO [A for atherosclerosis, S for small vessel disease, C for cardiac source, O for other cause]) have been developed to improve subtype assignment, few comparative data exist from large studies. We hypothesized that both CCS and ASCO would reduce the proportion of patients classified as cause undetermined compared with the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) scheme in a large population-based stroke study. METHODS: A single rater classified all first-ever ischemic strokes in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study, a population-based study of 294 529 North Dublin residents. Published algorithms for TOAST, CCS, and ASCO were applied. RESULTS: In 381 first-ever ischemic stroke patients, CCS assigned fewer patients as cause undetermined (26.2% versus 39.4%; P<0.000001), with increased assignment of cardio-aortic embolism (relative increase 6.9%; P=0.004), large artery atherosclerosis (relative increase 44.1%; P=0.00006), small artery occlusion (relative increase 27.3%; P=0.00006), and other causes (relative increase 91.7%; P=0.001) compared with TOAST. When ASCO grade 1 evidence was applied, fewer patients were classified as small artery disease (relative decrease 29.1%; P=0.007) and more as large artery/atherothrombotic (relative increase 17.6%; P=0.03). ASCO grade 1 did not reduce the proportion of cause undetermined cases compared with TOAST (42.3% versus 39.4%; P=0.2). Agreement between systems ranged from good (kappa=0.61 for TOAST/ASCO grade 1 small artery category) to excellent (kappa=0.95 for TOAST/CCS and ASCO grade 1/CCS cardio/aorto-embolism category). Application of ASCO grades 1 to 3 indicated evidence of large artery/atherosclerosis (73.3%), cardio-embolism (31.3%), small artery (64.7%), and other cause (12%) in TOAST-undetermined cases. CONCLUSIONS: Both CCS and ASCO schemes showed good-to-excellent agreement with TOAST, but each had specific characteristics compared with TOAST for subtype assignment and data retention. The feasibility of a single combined classification system should be considered.

Population-based study of ABCD2 score, carotid stenosis, and atrial fibrillation for early stroke prediction after transient ischemic attack: the North Dublin TIA study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Transient ischemic attack (TIA) etiologic data and the ABCD(2) score may improve early stroke risk prediction, but studies are required in population-based cohorts. We investigated the external validity of the ABCD(2) score, carotid stenosis, and atrial fibrillation for prediction of early recurrent stroke after TIA. METHODS: Patients with TIA in the North Dublin city population (N=294 529) were ascertained by using overlapping hospital and community sources. The relations between individual ABCD(2) items, carotid stenosis, atrial fibrillation, and early stroke were examined. RESULTS: In confirmed TIA cases (n=443), carotid stenosis predicted 90-day stroke (hazard ratio=2.56; 95% CI, 1.27 to 5.15, P=0.003). Stroke risk rose with increasing grade of carotid stenosis, ranging from 5.4% (95% CI, 3.3% to 8.7%) with <50% stenosis to 17.2% (95% CI, 9.7% to 29.7%) with severe stenosis/occlusion (hazard ratio=3.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 7.4, P=0.002). In confirmed TIA cases (n=443), the ABCD(2) score performed no better than chance for prediction of 90-day stroke (c-statistic=0.55; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.64), largely related to the 24.2% (8/33) of patients who experienced a recurrence and had low ABCD(2) scores (0-3). However, in nonspecialist-suspected TIA cases (n=700), the predictive utility improved for stroke at 28 (c-statistic=0.61; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.72) and 90 (c-statistic=0.61; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.71) days. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based TIA cohort, significant predictive information was provided by carotid stenosis. The ABCD(2) score had predictive utility in patients with TIA suspected by nonspecialists. Low scores occurred in several patients with stroke recurrences, suggesting that caution is needed before using the score in isolation.

Stroke associated with atrial fibrillation--incidence and early outcomes in the north Dublin population stroke study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective population-based studies are important to accurately determine the incidence and characteristics of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), while avoiding selection bias which may complicate hospital-based studies. METHODS: We investigated AF-associated stroke within the North Dublin Population Stroke Study, a prospective cohort study of stroke/transient ischaemic attack in 294,592 individuals, according to recommended criteria for rigorous stroke epidemiological studies. RESULTS: Of 568 stroke patients ascertained in the first year, 31.2% (177/568) were associated with AF (90.4%, i.e. 160/177 ischaemic infarcts). The crude incidence rate of all AF-associated stroke was 60/100,000 person-years (95% CI = 52-70). Prior stroke was almost twice as common in AF compared to non-AF groups (21.9 vs. 12.8%, p = 0.01). The frequency of AF progressively increased across ischaemic stroke patients stratified by increasing stroke severity (NIHSS 0-4, 29.7%; 5-9, 38.1%; 10-14, 43.8%; >or=15, 53.3%, p < 0.0001). The 90-day trajectory of recovery of AF-associated stroke was identical to that of non-AF stroke, but Rankin scores in AF stroke remained higher at 7, 28 and 90 days (p < 0.001 for all). DISCUSSION: AF-associated stroke occurred in one third of all patients and was associated with a distinct profile of recurrent, severe and disabling stroke. Targeted strategies to increase anticoagulation rates may provide a substantial benefit to prevent severe disabling stroke at a population level.

Diagnostic usefulness of the ABCD2 score to distinguish transient ischemic attack and minor ischemic stroke from noncerebrovascular events: the North Dublin TIA Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Transient ischemic attack (TIA) diagnosis is frequently difficult in clinical practice. Noncerebrovascular symptoms are often misclassified as TIA by nonspecialist physicians. Clinical prediction rules such as ABCD(2) improve the identification of patients with TIA at high risk of early stroke. We hypothesized that the ABCD(2) score may partly improve risk stratification due to improved discrimination of true TIA and minor ischemic stroke (MIS) from noncerebrovascular events. METHODS: Consecutive patients with TIA were identified within a prospective population-based cohort study of stroke and TIA. The cohort was expanded by inclusion of patients with MIS and noncerebrovascular events referred to a daily TIA clinic serving the population. Diagnosis was assigned by a trained stroke physician independent of ABCD(2) score. RESULTS: Five hundred ninety-four patients were included (292 [49.2%] TIA, 45 [7.6%] MIS, and 257 [43.3%] noncerebrovascular). The mean ABCD(2) score showed a graded increase across diagnostic groups (MIS mean 4.8 [SD 1.4] versus TIA mean 3.9 [SD 1.5] versus noncerebrovascular mean 2.9 [SD 1.5]; P<0.00001). The ABCD(2) score discriminated well between noncerebrovascular and cerebrovascular events-TIA (c-statistic 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.72), any vascular event (TIA+MIS; c-statistic 0.7; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.74), and MIS (c-statistic 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.87)-from noncerebrovascular events. Of ABCD(2) items, unilateral weakness (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 3.1 to 6.6) and speech disturbance (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6, 4.1) were most likely overrepresented in TIA compared with noncerebrovascular groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCD(2) score had significant diagnostic usefulness for discrimination of true TIA and MIS from noncerebrovascular events, which may contribute to its predictive usefulness.