Accounting for cryptic population substructure enhances detection of inbreeding depression with genomic inbreeding coefficients: an example from a critically endangered marsupial.

Characterizing inbreeding depression in wildlife populations can be critical to their conservation. Coefficients of individual inbreeding can be estimated from genome-wide marker data. The degree to which sensitivity of inbreeding coefficients to population genetic substructure alters estimates of inbreeding depression in wild populations is not well understood. Using generalized linear models, we tested the power of two frequently used inbreeding coefficients that are calculated from genome-wide SNP markers, FH and F^III , to predict four fitness traits estimated over two decades in an isolated population of the critically endangered Leadbeater's possum. FH estimates inbreeding as excess observed homozygotes relative to equilibrium expectations, whereas F^III quantifies allelic similarity between the gametes that formed an individual, and upweights rare homozygotes. We estimated FH and F^III from 1,575 genome-wide SNP loci in individuals with fitness trait data (N = 179-237 per trait), and computed revised coefficients, FHby group and F^IIIby group , adjusted for population genetic substructure by calculating them separately within two different genetic groups of individuals identified in the population. Using FH or F^III in the models, inbreeding depression was detected for survival to sexual maturity, longevity and whether individuals bred during their lifetime. F^IIIby group (but not FHby group ) additionally revealed significant inbreeding depression for lifetime reproductive output (total offspring assigned to each individual). Estimates of numbers of lethal equivalents indicated substantial inbreeding load, but differing between inbreeding estimators. Inbreeding depression, declining population size, and low and declining genetic diversity suggest that genetic rescue may assist in preventing extinction of this unique Leadbeater's possum population.

Evidence of Subdivisions on Evolutionary Timescales in a Large, Declining Marsupial Distributed across a Phylogeographic Barrier.

Major prehistoric forces, such as the climatic shifts of the Pleistocene, can remain visible in a species' population genetics. Inference of refuges via genetic tools is useful for conservation management as it can identify populations whose preservation may help retain a species' adaptive potential. Such investigation is needed for Australia's southern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus latifrons), whose conservation status has recently deteriorated, and whose phylogeographic history during the Pleistocene may be atypical compared to other species. Its contemporary range spans approximately 2000 km of diverse habitat on either side of the Spencer Gulf, which was a land bridge during periods of Pleistocene aridity that may have allowed for migration circumventing the arid Eyrean barrier. We sampled from animals in nearly all known sites within the species' current distribution, mainly using non-invasive methods, and employed nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses to assess alternative scenarios for Pleistocene impacts on population structure. We found evidence for mildly differentiated populations at the range extremes on either side of Spencer Gulf, with secondary contact between locations neighbouring each side of the barrier. These extreme western and eastern regions, and four other regions in between, were genetically distinct in genotypic clustering analyses. Estimates indicate modest, but complex gene flow patterns among some of these regions, in some cases possibly restricted for several thousand years. Prior to this study there was little information to aid risk assessment and prioritization of conservation interventions facilitating gene flow among populations of this species. The contributions of this study to that issue are outlined.

Population genetic analysis reveals a long-term decline of a threatened endemic Australian marsupial.

Since European colonization, Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) has declined across its range to the point where it is now only patchily distributed within the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. The loss of large hollow-bearing trees coupled with inadequate recruitment of mature ash forest has been predicted to result in a reduction in population size of up to 90% by 2020. Furthermore, bioclimatic analyses have suggested additional reductions in the species' distribution under a variety of climate change scenarios. Using a panel of 15 highly resolving microsatellite markers and mitochondrial control region sequence data, we infer past and present gene flow. Populations in the northern part of the core range were highly admixed, and showed no signs of either current or historical barriers to gene flow. A marginal, isolated and inbred population at Yellingbo was highly genetically differentiated, both in terms of current and historic genetic structure. Sequence data confirmed the conclusions from earlier genetic simulation studies that the Yellingbo population has been isolated from the rest of the species range since before European-induced changes to the montane landscape, and formed part of a larger genetic unit that is now otherwise extinct. Historic loss of maternal lineages in the Central Highlands of Victoria was detected despite signals of immigration, indicating population declines that most probably coincided with changes in climate at the end of the Pleistocene. Given ongoing habitat loss and the recent (February 2009) wildfire in the Central Highlands, we forecast (potentially extensive) demographic declines, in line with predicted range reductions under climate change scenarios.

Isolated remnant or recent introduction? Estimating the provenance of Yellingbo leadbeater's possums by genetic analysis and bottleneck simulation.

Effective conservation management requires that genetically divergent populations potentially harbouring important local adaptations be identified and maintained as separate management units. In the case of the endangered Australian Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri), an arboreal marsupial endemic to Victoria, uncertainty over the evolutionary origin of a potentially important extant wild population recently discovered in atypical habitat (lowland swamp) at Yellingbo is hampering such efforts. The population is rumoured to be a recent introduction. Microsatellite allele frequencies at Yellingbo differed substantially from those in sampled populations in montane ash forest (F(ST) between 0.23 and 0.36), and Bayesian clustering analyses of genotypes strongly separated them (K = 2). We conducted a suite of bottlenecking tests which all indicated that Yellingbo had undergone a recent reduction in size. The extent to which the distinctiveness of Yellingbo animals might be expected solely through bottlenecking associated with a recent introduction, was tested by simulating population-history scenarios seeded with genotypes from candidate wild and captive sources. No bottleneck scenario reproduced anything approaching the genetic distinction of the Yellingbo population, with all STRUCTURE analyses placing Yellingbo in a separate cluster to simulated populations (K = 2, minimum F(ST) = 0.13). These results suggest that Yellingbo does not share recent ancestry with other extant populations and instead may be a remnant of an otherwise extinct gene pool. Importantly, this may include genes involved in adaptation to a lowland swamp environment, substantially adding to the conservation importance of this population, and suggesting that separate management may be prudent until evidence suggests otherwise.