Development and Initial Validation of the Novel Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Activity Index.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate measurement of disease activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) remains a significant clinical challenge. The Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium (SCTC) convened an Activity Index Working Group (WG) to develop a novel measure of disease activity (SCTC-AI). METHODS: Using consensus methodology, we developed a conceptual definition of disease activity. Literature review and expert consensus generated provisional SCTC-AI items, which were reduced by Delphi survey. Provisional items were weighted against a combined endpoint of morbidity and mortality, using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) (n=1,254). External validation of the SCTC-AI was performed using data collected from 1,103 Canadian Scleroderma Research Group Study participants. RESULTS: Disease activity in SSc was defined using consensus methodology as 'aspects of disease that are reversible, or can be arrested, with time and, or effective therapy'. One-hundred and forty-one provisional SCTC-AI items were generated and reduced using 3 rounds of Delphi survey and statistical reduction and weighting, against mortality and quality of life measures, yielding a final 24-item index with a maximum possible score of 140. Survival analysis in an external cohort showed a graded relationship between disease activity scores and survival (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: We present a novel instrument to quantify the burden of disease activity in SSc. We have employed a rigorous consensus-based process in combination with data-driven methods, to develop an instrument that has face, content and criterion validity. Further work is required to fully validate and confirm the construct and discriminative validity of the SCTC-AI.

Outcomes of Patients With Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis Eligible for Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation Treated With Conventional Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to determine the event-free survival (EFS) of Australian patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) who met eligibility criteria for autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) in previously published randomized controlled trials but were not treated with ASCT. METHODS: Patients who met inclusion criteria for the Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation International Scleroderma (ASTIS) and Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide Or Transplantation (SCOT) trials were identified from the multicenter Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS). EFS (survival without cardiac, renal, or pulmonary failure or death) at 4 years was assessed. ASCS patients who had already undergone transplantation were excluded from analysis. RESULTS: Of the 492 patients with dcSSc in the ASCS, 56 met ASTIS inclusion criteria for ASCT (56 of 492 [11.4%]) and 30 met SCOT inclusion criteria (30 of 492 [6.1%]). An additional 11 patients met ASTIS or SCOT inclusion criteria, but they were excluded due to severe organ manifestations. EFS at 4 years in ASCS patients meeting ASTIS inclusion criteria was 83.3% and in ASCS patients meeting SCOT inclusion criteria was 81.2%. EFS at 4 years in ASCS patients who met ASTIS and SCOT inclusion but also exclusion criteria was 46.7% and 45.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: ASCS patients meeting ASTIS and/or SCOT inclusion criteria who were not treated with ASCT have similar EFS at 4 years as patients receiving ASCT and better EFS than those receiving cyclophosphamide in the ASTIS and SCOT trials. This may reflect confounders unable to be controlled for, including survivor bias, but may also reflect improved standard of care for dcSSc over time.

Prognostic and functional importance of both overt and subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the frequency and clinical implications of systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated left ventricular function (LV) impairment. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc with ≥1 echocardiographic LVEF measurement were included. Overt LV dysfunction was indicated by reduced LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and subclinical LV dysfunction was measured using impaired LV global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS>-16 %). Those with secondary causes of LV dysfunction (myocardial ischaemia, valvulopathy and pulmonary arterial hypertension) were excluded. Chi-squared tests, two-sample t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for between-group comparison as appropriate. Generalised estimating equations(GEE) were used to model longitudinal data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analyses. RESULTS: Of 1141 participants with no co-morbid cardiac disease, 2.4 % ever recorded a LVEF<50 %, while only 0.6 % ever recorded a LVEF≤40 %. LV-GLS data were available for 90 % of participants at one centre (n = 218). Impaired LV-GLS was detected in 21 % despite LVEF≥50 %. Those with a LVEF<50 % were more frequently male (p = 0.01) with dcSSc (p < 0.01), higher inflammatory markers (p < 0.02) and skeletal muscle disease (p < 0.05). In multivariable analyses, recording a LVEF<50 % was associated with increased mortality (HR2.3, 95 %CI1.0-4.8, p = 0.04). Impaired LV-GLS was also associated with poorer survival in univariable analyses (HR3.4, 95 %CI1.0-11.8, p = 0.05). Those with a LVEF<50 % more frequently recorded WHO Class III/IV dyspnoea (OR3.5, 95 %CI1.6-7.7, p < 0.01), with shorter six-minute walk distance (p = 0.01), higher Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index scores (p < 0.01) and lower Short Form-36 Physical Component Summary scores (p = 0.02). Increased dyspnoea (WHO Class III/IV dyspnoea; OR3.6, 95 %CI1.4-9.2, p < 0.01) was also seen in those with impaired LV-GLS. CONCLUSIONS: Both overt and subclinical SSc-associated LV dysfunction are associated with worse survival and impaired physical function. The frequency of abnormal LV-GLS in those with consistently normal LVEF suggests an under-appreciated burden of subtle LV systolic dysfunction in SSc that has a significant impact on patient symptomatology.

Quantifying the Need for Specialist Palliative Care Management in Patients With Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The importance of early integration of palliative care in the management of complex multisystem diseases has been recognized. In this study, we aimed to quantify the need for specialist palliative care in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Using data from 875 patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study, we defined the need for palliative care as a high symptom burden at two or more consecutive study visits, at ≥50% of overall study visits, or at the study visit immediately before death. Symptoms of interest included breathlessness, fatigue, pain, depression, anxiety, constipation, and diarrhea. Logistic regression analyses evaluated the association between individual symptoms and SSc manifestations. Linear regression analysis evaluated the relationship between palliative care needs and quality of life (QoL) and function. RESULTS: Almost three-quarters of patients (72.69%) met the threshold for specialist palliative care needs. Severe fatigue (54.17%) was most common, followed by breathlessness (23.66%) and severe constipation (21.14%). Concurrent severe symptoms were frequently observed. Severe breathlessness (coefficient [coef] -7.95, P < 0.01) and pain (coef -7.70, P < 0.01) were associated with the largest reductions in physical QoL. Severe mood symptoms were associated with the greatest reduction in mental QoL (coef -12.91, P < 0.01). Severe pain (coef 0.56, P < 0.01), breathlessness (coef 0.49, P < 0.01), and mood symptoms (coef 0.40, P < 0.01) had a significant impact on function. CONCLUSION: SSc is frequently associated with multiple severe symptoms that may be amenable to palliative care intervention. Given the strong association between symptom burden and impaired QoL targeted, effective symptom management in parallel with standard-of-care treatments may improve overall patient outcomes.

Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology Risk Assessment Score in Incident Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) may be stratified as low, intermediate, or high risk of 1-year mortality. In 2022, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) updated and simplified its risk stratification tool, based on three variables: World Health Organization functional class, serum N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide and six-minute walk distance, applied at follow-up visits, intended to guide therapy over time. METHODS: We applied the 2022 ESC risk assessment tool at baseline and follow-up (within 2 years) to a multinational incident cohort of systemic sclerosis-associated PAH (SSc-PAH). Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox hazards regression, and accelerated failure time models were used to evaluate survival by risk score. RESULTS: At baseline (n = 260), the majority of SSc-PAH (72.2%) were graded as intermediate risk of death according to the 2022 tool. At follow-up, according to 2022 tool, half (55.5%) of the cohort were classified as low or intermediate-low risk. The 2022 risk model at follow-up was able to differentiate survival between risk strata. All three individual parameters (World Health Organization functional class, N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide, six-minute walk distance) were significantly associated with mortality at baseline and/or follow-up. CONCLUSION: The 2022 ESC risk assessment strategy applied at baseline and follow-up predicts survival in SSc-PAH. Treatment decisions for SSc-PAH should include risk assessments, aiming to achieve low-risk status according to the 2022 ESC guidelines.

Predictors and prognosis of pulmonary hypertension complicating interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify those with concurrent pulmonary hypertension (PH) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and determine their disease severity, therapeutic approach, and survival. METHODS: Consecutive SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) who were diagnosed on right heart catherisation with pulmonary hypertension were included. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of ILD with PH hemodynamic parameters and therapeutic approach. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate survival. RESULTS: Of 1,883 SSc patients, 164 (8.7%) developed incident PH over a median follow up of 4.3 (1.7-7.9) years. Of these, 43.9% had concurrent ILD at PH diagnosis (PH-ILD) and 56.1% had Group 1 PAH. Extensive ILD was present at PH diagnosis in 40.3%. Despite these distinct PH cohorts, a similar frequency of each PH cohort was treated with vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis, regardless of the presence or severity of ILD. The majority (87.5%) of those with extensive ILD and PH received upfront vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis with no difference in its tolerability or therapy cessation compared with Group 1 PAH. Although vasodilator therapy was not associated with a survival advantage in those with extensive ILD, its use was associated with an improvement in symptoms, physical function, and quality of life (QoL). CONCLUSION: Despite vasodilator therapy, survival in SSc-PH is poor, with the presence of concurrent ILD associated with worse survival. Although vasodilator therapy commenced at PH diagnosis does not portray an improved survival in PH with extensive ILD, it appears well tolerated and may improve symptoms, physical function, and QoL.

Frequency and implications of malnutrition in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the frequency and impact of malnutrition in systemic sclerosis (SSc), as diagnosed by the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, based on weight loss, body mass index (BMI) and muscle atrophy. METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc with ≥1 concurrent weight and height measurement were included. Chi-squared tests, two-sample t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for between-group comparison as appropriate. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to establish the determinants of malnutrition diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analyses, based on malnutrition diagnosis, and individual GLIM criteria (% weight loss, BMI thresholds and presence of muscle atrophy). RESULTS: In this study of 1903 participants, 43% were diagnosed with malnutrition according to GLIM criteria, of whom 33% had severe malnutrition. Participants diagnosed with malnutrition were older, and more likely to have dcSSc, higher SSc severity scores and RNA polymerase-3 positivity. Gastrointestinal (GI) involvement, multimorbidity, cardiopulmonary disease, raised inflammatory markers, hypoalbuminaemia and anaemia were more common in malnourished participants (p< 0.01). Multimorbidity (OR1.6, 95%CI1.2-2.0, p< 0.01), pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR2.1, 95%CI1.4-2.0, p< 0.01) and upper GI symptoms (OR1.6, 95%CI1.3-2.0, p< 0.01) were all associated with malnutrition.Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and physical function were poorer in malnourished participants. Survival was worse in those with malnutrition after adjusting for age, sex and dcSSc (HR 1.4, 95%CI1.1-1.7, p< 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Malnutrition is common in SSc and confers poorer survival, HRQoL and physical function.

Multiple serum biomarkers associate with mortality and interstitial lung disease progression in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic utility of 28 serum biomarkers in systemic sclerosis (SSc), SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) and clinically relevant disease subgroups. METHODS: Participants with sera, high-resolution computed tomography, and lung function within 12 months of baseline were identified from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study. Baseline was the time of serum collection. 27 of the prespecified 28 serum biomarkers were analysed and biomarker associations with mortality and ILD progression were investigated in univariable and multivariable analyses, including within disease subgroups and combined with established risk factors for poorer prognosis in SSc. RESULTS: 407 participants were identified, 252 (61.9%) with SSc-ILD. The median follow up after biomarker measurement was 6.31 (3.11-9.22) years. 16 biomarkers were associated with increased mortality. High levels of VCAM-1 were most strongly associated with mortality (HR 3.55; 95%CI 2.37-5.33; p< 0.001). Five additional biomarkers had a HR > 2: SP-D (2.28, 1.57-3.31; p< 0.001), E-selectin (2.19; 1.53-3.14; p< 0.001), IL-6 (2.15 1.50-3.09; p< 0.001), MMP3 (1.42-2.95; p< 0.001) and ET-1 (2.03, 1.40-2.92; p< 0.001). 11 biomarkers were independently associated with mortality following adjustment for sex, age and baseline forced vital capacity (FVC%predicted). Three biomarkers were associated with ILD progression at one year follow up: CXCL4 (OR 2.67, 1.46-4.88; p= 0.001), MMP-1 (2.56, 1.43-4.59; p= 0.002) and ET-1 (2.18, 1.24-3.83; p= 0.007). CONCLUSION: Multiple biomarkers, especially VCAM-1, E-Selectin, SP-D and CXCL4, provide prognostic utility beyond that of established risk factors for patients with SSc.

Proximal weakness and creatine kinase elevation in systemic sclerosis: Clinical correlates, prognosis and functional implications.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency, clinical correlates and implications of clinical evidence of muscle disease in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with ≥1 creatine kinase (CK) and proximal power assessment were subdivided according to presence of proximal weakness (PW: proximal muscle power<5/5) and CK elevation(≥140IU/L). Participants were assigned to one of four groups: concurrent PW&CK elevation, PW alone, CK elevation alone or neither. Between-group comparisons were made with chi-squared, ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests. Survival analysis was performed using time-varying-covariate Cox regression modelling. Longitudinal data were modelled using multinomial logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: Of 1786 participants, 4 % had concurrent PW&CK elevation, 15 % PW alone, 24 % CK elevation and 57 % neither. Participants with PW&CK elevation displayed a severe, inflammatory SSc phenotype, with more frequent dcSSc(p < 0.01), tendon friction rubs(p < 0.01), synovitis(p < 0.01) and digital ulceration(p = 0.03). Multimorbidity(p < 0.01) and cardiopulmonary disease, including ischaemic heart disease(p < 0.01) and pulmonary arterial hypertension(p < 0.01), were most common in those with PW, with and without CK elevation. Men with anti-Scl70 positivity most frequently had CK elevation alone, without other significant clinical differences. Multivariable modelling demonstrated 3.6-fold increased mortality in those with PW&CK elevation (95 %CI 1.9-6.6, p < 0.01) and 2.1-fold increased mortality in PW alone (95 %CI 1.4-3.0, p < 0.01) compared to those without PW or CK elevation. CK elevation alone conferred better survival (HR 0.7, 95 %CI 0.4-1.1, p = 0.09) compared to those with no PW or CK elevation. PW regardless of CK elevation was associated with impaired physical function, with reduced six-minute-walk-distance (p < 0.01), higher HAQ-DI scores (p < 0.01) and increased patient-reported dyspnoea (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Clinical features of myopathy are highly prevalent in SSc, affecting almost half of our study cohort. Detection of PW and elevated CK alone, even without imaging or histopathological identification of SSc-myopathy, identified important clinical associations and are associated with poorer function and overall prognosis.

Inflammatory Arthritis in Systemic Sclerosis: Its Epidemiology, Associations, and Morbidity.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology, associations, and impact of inflammatory arthritis (IA) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Patients with SSc prospectively enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were included. IA was defined clinically as the presence of synovitis on examination. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of IA with SSc manifestations and serological parameters. Patient-reported outcome measures were used to capture physical function and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). RESULTS: IA was a common SSc manifestation affecting one-third (33.3%) of patients over a median follow-up of 4.3 (1.7-8.4) years. Associations of IA included diffuse SSc (odds ratio [OR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.01-1.74, P = 0.042), concurrent musculoskeletal manifestations (joint contractures and tendon friction rubs, OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.34-2.15, P < 0.001); myositis (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.39-3.20, P < 0.001), and sicca symptoms (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.14-2.16, P = 0.006), whereas IA was negatively associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Neither the presence of rheumatoid factor nor U1 small nuclear RNP were associated with IA (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88-1.44, P = 0.331, OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.89-2.39, P = 0.129 respectively). Positive anticyclic citrullinated protein antibodies, although at low frequency, were more common in those with IA compared with those without IA (7.5% vs 1.5%, P < 0.001). IA was associated with significantly lower HRQoL score (P < 0.001) and more physical disability than in those without IA (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: IA is a common disease manifestation that is more frquently seen in diffuse disease. IA is associated with poor HRQoL and physical disability. Further research is needed into the effective management of IA in SSc.

Contribution of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction to Survival and Breathlessness in Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the effect of left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD), and to investigate SSc-specific associations and clinical correlates of LVDD. METHODS: There were 102 Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants with definite SSc and radiographic ILD included. Diastolic function was classified as normal, indeterminate, or abnormal according to 2016 American Society of Echocardiography/European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging guidelines for assessment of LV diastolic function. Associations between clinical features and patient- and physician-reported dyspnea were evaluated using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: LVDD was identified in 26% of participants, whereas 19% had indeterminate and 55% had normal diastolic function. Those with ILD and LVDD had increased mortality (hazard ratio 2.4, 95% CI 1.0-5.7; P = 0.05). After adjusting for age and sex, those with ILD and LVDD were more likely to have severe dyspnea on the Borg Dyspnoea Scale (odds ratio [OR] 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.6; P = 0.05) and numerically more likely to record World Health Organization Function Class II or higher dyspnea (OR 4.2, 95% CI 0.9-20.0; P = 0.08). Older age (95% CI 1.0-6.4; P = 0.05), hypertension (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.8-13.8; P < 0.01), and ischemic heart disease (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.5-15.7; P < 0.01) were all associated with LVDD, as was proximal muscle atrophy (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.9-13.6; P < 0.01) and multimorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index scores ≥ 4, OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.7; P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: LVDD in SSc-ILD is more strongly associated with traditional LVDD risk factors than SSc-specific factors. LVDD is associated with worse dyspnea and survival in those with SSc-ILD.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Care Access and Diagnosis of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Among Patients With Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Regular clinical assessment for complications of systemic sclerosis (SSc) such as pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is essential for early institution of therapy and improved outcomes. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions on health care access of patients with SSc, including screening for PAH. METHODS: South Australian and Victorian patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were surveyed about their perceptions of the impact of the pandemic on mental well-being, access to medications, investigations, and management of SSc. Frequency of annual rheumatology assessments, pulmonary function tests (PFT), and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) to screen for PAH were compared with rates from before the pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 312 of 810 patients with SSc responded (38.5% response); 273 were female (87.5%), the median age was 64.7 years, 77.2% had limited disease, the median illness duration was 15.6 years, 15.7% were immunosuppressed, 32.1% had interstitial lung disease, and 6.4% had PAH. A total of 65.7% of consultations were by telehealth, of which 81.2% were by telephone. Compared with respondents in South Australia (n = 109), Victorian respondents (n = 203) experiencing prolonged lockdown, reported reduced access to their rheumatologist (49.3% vs 27.9%; P = 0.004), greater use of consultation by video (17.3% vs 2.1%; P = 0.008), greater health care disruption (49.0% vs 23.2%; P < 0.001), and worse mental health (P = 0.002). Respondents reported reduced access to PFT and TTE (31.7% and 22.5%, respectively). Annual visits, PFT, TTE, and new diagnoses of PAH were reduced in 2020 to 2022 compared with 2011 to 2019. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic-related disruption to health care for patients with SSc was associated with worse mental health and reduced screening and diagnosis of PAH, which may impact long-term outcomes.

The effect of calcium channel blockers on digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from a prospective cohort study.

Digital ulcers (DU) are a common, severe vascular manifestation of systemic sclerosis (SSc) with few effective treatment options. Using data from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS), we sought to evaluate the effect of calcium channel blockers (CCB) on the treatment and prevention of DU.Using data from 1953 participants, with a median of 4.34 years of follow-up, we used generalised estimating equations to evaluate the clinical characteristics associated with CCB use and ascertain the risk factors for the presence of DU at subsequent study visits. A time-dependent Cox-proportional hazard model was applied to evaluate the risk of future occurrence of DU with CCB use.Sixty-six percent of participants received CCB and patients with a history of DU were more likely to be prescribed a CCB (76.76% vs 53.70%, p < 0.01). CCB use was more frequent in patients with severe complications of DU including chronic DU (OR 1.47, p = 0.02), need for hospitalisation for iloprost (OR 1.30, p = 0.01) or antibiotics (OR 1.36, p = 0.04) and digital amputation (OR 1.48, p < 0.01). Use of CCB was more likely in patients who experienced DU at subsequent study visits (OR 1.32, p < 0.01) and was not associated with a decreased risk of the development of a first DU (HR 0.94, p = 0.65).CCB are frequently used in the management of SSc in the ASCS and their use is associated with severe peripheral vascular manifestations of SSc. However, our results suggest that CCB may not be effective in the healing or prevention of DU.

Observations from Australia's National Surgical Mortality Audit.

BACKGROUND: Australia is the only country with a national surgical mortality audit. Every Australian surgical mortality is independently and externally reviewed by another surgeon. Extensive educational feedback to surgeons and hospitals is provided through individual patient reviews, state and national symposia and reports, and the distribution of deidentified informative cases. This study reports a longitudinal analysis of the Australian surgical morality audit. METHODS: The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated for each state and territory, nine surgical specialties and nationally. The index year used was 2016, or every 5 years for those states with earlier data. Overall data were analysed in three groups-all deaths, postoperative deaths and non-operative deaths. Overall specialty data were analysed nationally. RESULTS: There was a consistent progressive fall, usually in excess of 20%, in the SMR in each state and territory and by specialty when compared to the index year. This was statistically significant nationally (p = 0.044). The same change was observed in earlier years in states with longer-term data. CONCLUSION: The period of this observational study has been associated with a nationwide fall in surgical mortality. As other improvements in care will have occurred during this period, the contribution that Australia's national mortality audit made towards the lower surgical mortality cannot be stated with certainty.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis and its impact on survival in systemic sclerosis related interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency of progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in an incident cohort of systemic sclerosis (SSc) related interstitial lung disease (ILD) and its impact on survival. METHODS: Incident ILD was defined as the new development of characteristic fibrotic changes on chest HRCT scan. PPF was defined as per the 2022 American Thoracic Society. Determinants of PPF were identified using generalised estimating equations. Impact on survival was analysed using accelerated failure time regression modelling. RESULTS: Of our incident SSc-ILD cases, 38.8% (n = 180) experienced PPF within a 12-month period after ILD diagnosis. Determinants of PPF included older age (OR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.03, p= 0.011), dcSSc (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.25, p= 0.024) and SSc specific antibodies (anticentomere antibody OR 0.51, 95%CI 0.29-0.91, p= 0.021 and anti-Scl-70 antibody OR 1.46, 95%CI 1.01-2.09, p= 0.043). Raised CRP was numerically associated with PPF but did not reach statistical significance (OR 1.29, 95%CI 0.99-1.68, p= 0.064) nor did GORD or dysphagia (OR 1.18, 95%CI 0.57-2.42, p= 0.658 and OR 1.17, 95%CI 0.57-2.40, p= 0.664 respectively). The presence of PPF significantly impacted survival in SSc-ILD (hazard ratio 2.66, 95%CI 1.59-4.41, p< 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PPF occurred in a third of our incident SSc-ILD cohort; however, its occurrence was significantly associated with mortality indicating an at-risk group who may be suitable for earlier introduction of immunosuppressive and/or antifibrotic therapy.

Sudden cardiac death, arrhythmias and abnormal electrocardiography in systemic sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the frequency of sudden cardiac death(SCD), arrhythmia and conduction defects in SSc. METHODS: MEDLINE/EMBASE were searched to January 2023. English-language studies reporting the incidence/frequency of SCD, arrhythmia and electrocardiography(ECG) abnormalities in SSc were included. Odds ratios(OR), estimations of annual incidence or pooled frequencies were calculated. RESULTS: Seventy-nine studies(n = 13,609 participants with SSc) were included in the meta-analysis. Methodology and outcomes were heterogeneous. Ten studies included cohorts with known/suspected SSc-associated heart involvement(SHI), generally defined as clinically-manifest cardiac disease/abnormal cardiac investigations. The incidence of SCD in SHI was estimated to be 3.3% annually(n = 4 studies, 301PY follow-up). On ambulatory ECG, 18% of SHI cohorts had non-sustained ventricular tachycardia(NSVT; n = 4, 95%CI3.2-39.3%), 70% frequent premature ventricular complexes (PVCs; n = 1, 95%CI34.8-93.3%), and 8% atrial fibrillation (AF; n = 1, 95%CI4.2-13.6%). Nineteen studies included participants without SHI, defined as normal cardiac investigations/absence of cardiac disease. The estimated incidence of SCD was approximately 2.9% annually (n = 1, 67.5PY). Compared to healthy controls, individuals without SHI demonstrated NSVT 13.3-times more frequently (n = 2, 95%CI2-102), and paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia 7-times more frequently (n = 4, 95%CI3-15). Other ambulatory ECG abnormalities included NSVT in 9% (n = 7, 95%CI6-14%), >1000 PVCs/24 h in 6% (n = 2, 95%CI1-13%), and AF in 7% (n = 5, 0-21%). Fifty studies included general SSc cohorts unselected for cardiac disease. The incidence of SCD was estimated to be 2.0% annually(n = 4 studies, 1646PY). Unselected SSc cohorts were 10.5-times more likely to demonstrate frequent PVCs (n = 2, 95%CI 2-59) and 2.5-times more likely to have an abnormal electrocardiography (n = 2, 95%CI1-4). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of SCD in SSc is estimated to be 1.0-3.3% annually, at least 10-fold higher than general population estimates. Arrhythmias including NSVT and frequent PVCs appear common, including amongst those without known/suspected SHI.

Clinical characteristics and survival of pulmonary arterial hypertension with or without interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical phenotype and prognosis of people in the Australian Scleroderma (SSc) Cohort Study with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) with or without interstitial lung disease (ILD). METHODS: Participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc were divided into four mutually exclusive groups: those meeting criteria for PAH (PAH-only), ILD (ILD-only), concurrent PAH and ILD (PAH-ILD) or neither PAH nor ILD (SSc-only). Logistic or linear regression analyses were used for associations between clinical features, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and physical function. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox-regression modelling. RESULTS: Of 1561 participants, 7% fulfilled criteria for PAH-only, 24% ILD-only, 7% PAH-ILD and 62% SSc-only. People with PAH-ILD were more frequently male, with diffuse skin involvement, higher inflammatory markers, older age of SSc onset and higher frequency of extensive ILD than the cohort overall (p < 0.001). People of Asian race more frequently developed PAH-ILD (p < 0.001). People with PAH-ILD or PAH-only had worse WHO functional class and 6-min-walk-distance than ILD-only (p < 0.001). HRQoL scores were worst in those with PAH-ILD (p < 0.001). Survival was reduced in the PAH-only and PAH-ILD groups (p < 0.01). Multivariable hazard modelling demonstrated the worst prognosis in extensive ILD and PAH (HR = 5.65 95% CI 3.50-9.12 p < 0.01), followed by PAH-only (HR = 4.21 95% CI 2.89-6.13 p < 0.01) and PAH with limited ILD (HR = 2.46 95% CI 1.52-3.99 p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of concurrent PAH-ILD in the ASCS is 7%, with poorer survival in those patients with PAH-ILD compared to ILD or SSc alone. The presence of PAH confers a poorer overall prognosis than even extensive ILD; however, further data are required to better understand the clinical outcomes of this high-risk patient group.

Disease specific determinants of cardiopulmonary fitness in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify the burden of exercise intolerance in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and explore the disease features that contribute to impaired exercise capacity (measured as peak oxygen uptake, peak VO2) to provide novel mechanistic insights into the causes of physical disability in SSc. METHODS: Thirty-three SSc patients with no history of cardiac disease and no active myositis underwent cardiac and skeletal muscle MRI, transthoracic echocardiography, pulmonary function tests and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). CPET results were compared to an age-, sex-, and weight-matched controls with no overt cardiopulmonary disease. Native T1 and T2-mapping sequences were used to quantify diffuse fibroinflammatory myocardial disease and qualitative assessment of skeletal muscle oedema was performed. The associations between parameters of cardiorespiratory function and skeletal muscle abnormalities and peak VO2 were evaluated with linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Exercise capacity was markedly impaired in SSc and significantly reduced when compared to control subjects (percent predicted peak VO2: 70% vs 98%, p < 0⋅01). Diffuse myocardial fibroinflammatory disease (p < 0⋅01) and skeletal muscle oedema (p = 0⋅01) were significantly associated with reduced exercise capacity. There was no association between impaired exercise capacity and left ventricular ejection fraction. CONCLUSION: SSc is associated with marked functional impairment that is not explained by commonly used parameters of cardiac function such as left ventricular ejection fraction. Rather, only more sensitive measures of organ involvement are associated with impaired exercise tolerance. Our results show diffuse interstitial changes of the myocardium and skeletal muscle affect oxygen uptake and are important contributors to functional limitation in SSc.

Gastric antral vascular ectasia in systemic sclerosis: a study of its epidemiology, disease characteristics and impact on survival.

BACKGROUND: To describe the epidemiology, determinants and survival impact of gastric antral vascular ectasia (GAVE) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Consecutive SSc patients prospectively enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) were included. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine the associations of GAVE with clinical manifestations and serological parameters. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves were used to estimate survival. RESULTS: The prevalence of GAVE in this SSc cohort of 2039 SSc patients was 10.6% (n = 216) over a median follow-up period of 4.3(1.7-8.4) years. SSc patients with a history of GAVE compared with those without a history of GAVE were older at SSc onset [49.5 (40.0-58.2) vs 46.7 (36.0-56.7) years, p = 0.05]; more likely to have diffuse disease subtype (dcSSc) (35.3% vs 24.1%, p < 0.001); be negative for Scl-70, U1RNP and Scl/PM antibody (4.0% vs 16.1%, p < 0.001, 3.5% vs 7.4%, p = 0.041, 0.0% vs 2.0%, p = 0.042; and respectively) and positive for RNAP III antibody (24.9% vs 8.3%, p < 0.001). Those with GAVE had a worse HRQoL (p = 0.002). Independent determinants of GAVE included the presence of RNAP III antibody (OR 3.46, p < 0.001), absence of Scl-70 antibody (OR 0.23, p = 0.001), presence of GIT dysmotility (OR 1.64, p = 0.004), and digital ulcers; pits; or digital amputation (OR 1.59, p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: GAVE is an underestimated and underappreciated SSc manifestation of SSc, which occurs with a relatively high frequency. Identifying an at-risk GAVE phenotype, as presented herein, is of practical importance as screening may prove advantageous given GAVE can be easily diagnosed and treated.

Using magnetic resonance imaging to map the hidden burden of muscle involvement in systemic sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Skeletal muscle can be directly affected by systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, a significant burden of SSc-associated myopathy is undetected because clinical parameters such as weakness and creatine kinase (CK) are unreliable biomarkers of muscle involvement. This study presents qualitative and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings that quantify the prevalence of myopathy and evaluate any association between skeletal and cardiac muscle involvement in SSc. METHODS: Thirty-two patients with SSc who fulfilled the 2013 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria underwent skeletal muscle MRI in addition to cardiac MRI. Skeletal muscles were independently assessed by two musculoskeletal radiologists for evidence of oedema, fatty infiltration and atrophy. Skeletal muscle T2 mapping times and percentage fat fraction were calculated. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the clinical and myocardial associations with skeletal muscle oedema and fatty infiltration. Cardiac MRI was performed using post gadolinium contrast imaging and parametric mapping techniques to assess focal and diffuse myocardial fibrosis. RESULTS: Thirteen participants (40.6%) had MRI evidence of skeletal muscle oedema. Five (15.6%) participants had fatty infiltration. There was no association between skeletal muscle oedema and muscle strength, creatine kinase, inflammatory markers or fibroinflammatory myocardial disease. Patients with skeletal muscle oedema had higher T2-mapping times; there was a significant association between subjective assessments of muscle oedema and T2-mapping time (coef 2.46, p = 0.02) and percentage fat fraction (coef 3.41, p = 0.02). Diffuse myocardial fibrosis was a near-universal finding, and one third of patients had focal myocardial fibrosis. There was no association between skeletal myopathy detected by MRI and burden of myocardial disease. CONCLUSIONS: MRI is a sensitive measure of muscle oedema and systematic assessment of SSc patients using MRI shows that myopathy is highly prevalent, even in patients without symptoms or other signs of muscle involvement. Similarly, cardiac fibrosis is highly prevalent but occurs independently of skeletal muscle changes. These results indicate that novel quantitative MRI techniques may be useful for assessing sub-clinical skeletal muscle disease in SSc.