Evolvability predicts macroevolution under fluctuating selection.

Heritable variation is a prerequisite for evolutionary change, but the relevance of genetic constraints on macroevolutionary timescales is debated. By using two datasets on fossil and contemporary taxa, we show that evolutionary divergence among populations, and to a lesser extent among species, increases with microevolutionary evolvability. We evaluate and reject several hypotheses to explain this relationship and propose that an effect of evolvability on population and species divergence can be explained by the influence of genetic constraints on the ability of populations to track rapid, stationary environmental fluctuations.

Directional epistasis is common in morphological divergence.

Epistasis is often portrayed as unimportant in evolution. While random patterns of epistasis may have limited effects on the response to selection, systematic directional epistasis can have substantial effects on evolutionary dynamics. Directional epistasis occurs when allele substitutions that change a trait also modify the effects of allele substitution at other loci in a systematic direction. In this case, trait evolution may induce correlated changes in allelic effects and additive genetic variance (evolvability) that modify further evolution. Although theory thus suggests a potentially important role for directional epistasis in evolution, we still lack empirical evidence about its prevalence and magnitude. Using a new framework to estimate systematic patterns of epistasis from line-crosses experiments, we quantify its effects on 197 size-related traits from diverging natural populations in 24 animal and 17 plant species. We show that directional epistasis is common and tends to become stronger with increasing morphological divergence. In animals, most traits displayed negative directionality toward larger size, suggesting that epistatic constraints reducing evolvability toward larger size. Dominance was also common but did not systematically alter the effects of epistasis.

Genetic prediction of 33 blood group phenotypes using an existing genotype dataset.

BACKGROUND: Accurate blood type data are essential for blood bank management, but due to costs, few of 43 blood group systems are routinely determined in Danish blood banks. However, a more comprehensive dataset of blood types is useful in scenarios such as rare blood type allocation. We aimed to investigate the viability and accuracy of predicting blood types by leveraging an existing dataset of imputed genotypes for two cohorts of approximately 90,000 each (Danish Blood Donor Study and Copenhagen Biobank) and present a more comprehensive overview of blood types for our Danish donor cohort. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Blood types were predicted from genome array data using known variant determinants. Prediction accuracy was confirmed by comparing with preexisting serological blood types. The Vel blood group was used to test the viability of using genetic prediction to narrow down the list of candidate donors with rare blood types. RESULTS: Predicted phenotypes showed a high balanced accuracy >99.5% in most cases: A, B, C/c, Coa /Cob , Doa /Dob , E/e, Jka /Jkb , Kna /Knb , Kpa /Kpb , M/N, S/s, Sda , Se, and Yta /Ytb , while some performed slightly worse: Fya /Fyb , K/k, Lua /Lub , and Vel ~99%-98% and CW and P1 ~96%. Genetic prediction identified 70 potential Vel negatives in our cohort, 64 of whom were confirmed correct using polymerase chain reaction (negative predictive value: 91.5%). DISCUSSION: High genetic prediction accuracy in most blood groups demonstrated the viability of generating blood types using preexisting genotype data at no cost and successfully narrowed the pool of potential individuals with the rare Vel-negative phenotype from 180,000 to 70.

DanMAC5: a browser of aggregated sequence variants from 8,671 whole genome sequenced Danish individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Allele counts of sequence variants obtained by whole genome sequencing (WGS) often play a central role in interpreting the results of genetic and genomic research. However, such variant counts are not readily available for individuals in the Danish population. Here, we present a dataset with allele counts for sequence variants (single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and indels) identified from WGS of 8,671 (5,418 females) individuals from the Danish population. The data resource is based on WGS data from three independent research projects aimed at assessing genetic risk factors for cardiovascular, psychiatric, and headache disorders. To enable the sharing of information on sequence variation in Danish individuals, we created summarized statistics on allele counts from anonymized data and made them available through the European Genome-phenome Archive (EGA, https://identifiers.org/ega. DATASET: EGAD00001009756 ) and in a dedicated browser, DanMAC5 (available at www.danmac5.dk ). The summary level data and the DanMAC5 browser provide insight into the allelic spectrum of sequence variants segregating in the Danish population, which is important in variant interpretation. DATA DESCRIPTION: Three WGS datasets with an average coverage of 30x were processed independently using the same quality control pipeline. Subsequently, we summarized, filtered, and merged allele counts to create a high-quality summary level dataset of sequence variants.

Experience of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of 50 968 adult Danes.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the level of loneliness experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark and to identify associated behavioural patterns and demographic factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: Includes Danish active and former blood donors. PARTICIPANTS: A questionnaire was sent to 124 307 active and former blood donors, of these a total of 50 968 participants completed the study questionnaire (response rate=41%). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Subjective experience of loneliness was measured using the 3-item University of California, Los Angeles Loneliness Scale (UCLA-3). Besides the UCLA-3, the respondents answered items on sociodemographic and economic characteristics, items on precautionary measures taken to avoid COVID-19 infection as well as on COVID-19 anxiety. RESULTS: The participants indicated their experienced level of loneliness both before and during the pandemic. Comparing the two reports yielded a mean increase in loneliness scores of 14.1% (p<0.001). Exploratory factor analysis identified the factor well-being, which comprised three questionnaire items related to emotional heath, physical health and happiness. A high score on the factor well-being was associated with reduced levels of loneliness (coefficient=-0.47, 95% CI -0.49 to -0.46)). Furthermore, women were more likely than men to have experienced increased levels of loneliness during the pandemic (coefficient=0.27, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.29). Furthermore, a negative correlation between higher age and change in loneliness score was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings document an increase in the level of experienced loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly affecting individuals with low well-being, women and younger individuals.

A Cautionary Note on "A Cautionary Note on the Use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck Models in Macroevolutionary Studies".

Models based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have become standard for the comparative study of adaptation. Cooper et al. (2016) have cast doubt on this practice by claiming statistical problems with fitting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models to comparative data. Specifically, they claim that statistical tests of Brownian motion may have too high Type I error rates and that such error rates are exacerbated by measurement error. In this note, we argue that these results have little relevance to the estimation of adaptation with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models for three reasons. First, we point out that Cooper et al. (2016) did not consider the detection of distinct optima (e.g. for different environments), and therefore did not evaluate the standard test for adaptation. Second, we show that consideration of parameter estimates, and not just statistical significance, will usually lead to correct inferences about evolutionary dynamics. Third, we show that bias due to measurement error can be corrected for by standard methods. We conclude that Cooper et al. (2016) have not identified any statistical problems specific to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, and that their cautions against their use in comparative analyses are unfounded and misleading. [adaptation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, phylogenetic comparative method.].

The genetic history of Scandinavia from the Roman Iron Age to the present.

We investigate a 2,000-year genetic transect through Scandinavia spanning the Iron Age to the present, based on 48 new and 249 published ancient genomes and genotypes from 16,638 modern individuals. We find regional variation in the timing and magnitude of gene flow from three sources: the eastern Baltic, the British-Irish Isles, and southern Europe. British-Irish ancestry was widespread in Scandinavia from the Viking period, whereas eastern Baltic ancestry is more localized to Gotland and central Sweden. In some regions, a drop in current levels of external ancestry suggests that ancient immigrants contributed proportionately less to the modern Scandinavian gene pool than indicated by the ancestry of genomes from the Viking and Medieval periods. Finally, we show that a north-south genetic cline that characterizes modern Scandinavians is mainly due to the differential levels of Uralic ancestry and that this cline existed in the Viking Age and possibly earlier.

Evolvability and trait function predict phenotypic divergence of plant populations.

Understanding the causes and limits of population divergence in phenotypic traits is a fundamental aim of evolutionary biology, with the potential to yield predictions of adaptation to environmental change. Reciprocal transplant experiments and the evaluation of optimality models suggest that local adaptation is common but not universal, and some studies suggest that trait divergence is highly constrained by genetic variances and covariances of complex phenotypes. We analyze a large database of population divergence in plants and evaluate whether evolutionary divergence scales positively with standing genetic variation within populations (evolvability), as expected if genetic constraints are evolutionarily important. We further evaluate differences in divergence and evolvability-divergence relationships between reproductive and vegetative traits and between selfing, mixed-mating, and outcrossing species, as these factors are expected to influence both patterns of selection and evolutionary potentials. Evolutionary divergence scaled positively with evolvability. Furthermore, trait divergence was greater for vegetative traits than for floral (reproductive) traits, but largely independent of the mating system. Jointly, these factors explained ~40% of the variance in evolutionary divergence. The consistency of the evolvability-divergence relationships across diverse species suggests substantial predictability of trait divergence. The results are also consistent with genetic constraints playing a role in evolutionary divergence.

A large cohort study of the effects of Lewis, ABO, 13 other blood groups, and secretor status on COVID-19 susceptibility, severity, and long COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported Blood type O to confer a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, while secretor status and other blood groups have been suspected to have a similar effect as well. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: To determine whether any other blood groups influence testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 severity, or prolonged COVID-19, we used a large cohort of 650,156 Danish blood donors with varying available data for secretor status and blood groups ABO, Rh, Colton, Duffy, Diego, Dombrock, Kell, Kidd, Knops, Lewis, Lutheran, MNS, P1PK, Vel, and Yt. Of these, 36,068 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 whereas 614,088 tested negative between 2020-02-17 and 2021-08-04. Associations between infection and blood groups were assessed using logistic regression models with sex and age as covariates. RESULTS: The Lewis blood group antigen Lea displayed strongly reduced SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility OR 0.85 CI[0.79-0.93] p < .001. Compared to blood type O, the blood types B, A, and AB were found more susceptible toward infection with ORs 1.1 CI[1.06-1.14] p < .001, 1.17 CI[1.14-1.2] p < .001, and 1.2 CI[1.14-1.26] p < .001, respectively. No susceptibility associations were found for the other 13 blood groups investigated. There was no association between any blood groups and COVID-19 hospitalization or long COVID-19. No secretor status associations were found. DISCUSSION: This study uncovers a new association to reduced SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility for Lewis type Lea and confirms the previous link to blood group O. The new association to Lea could be explained by a link between mucosal microbiome and SARS-CoV-2.

Both Diet and Sociality Affect Primate Brain-Size Evolution.

Increased brain size in humans and other primates is hypothesized to confer cognitive benefits but brings costs associated with growing and maintaining energetically expensive neural tissue. Previous studies have argued that changes in either diet or levels of sociality led to shifts in brain size, but results were equivocal. Here we test these hypotheses using phylogenetic comparative methods designed to jointly account for and estimate the effects of adaptation and phylogeny. Using the largest current sample of primate brain and body sizes with observation error, complemented by newly compiled diet and sociality data, we show that both diet and sociality have influenced the evolution of brain size. Shifting from simple to more complex levels of sociality resulted in relatively larger brains, while shifting to a more folivorous diet led to relatively smaller brains. While our results support the role of sociality, they modify a range of ecological hypotheses centered on the importance of frugivory, and instead indicate that digestive costs associated with increased folivory may have resulted in relatively smaller brains. [adaptation; allometry; bayou; evolutionary trend; energetic constraints; phylogenetic comparative methods; primate brain size; Slouch; social-brain hypothesis.].

Childhood cancer confers increased risk of migraine - A Danish nationwide register study.

BACKGROUND: Investigations of migraine among childhood cancer survivors have predominantly relied on self-reported information and hospital discharge diagnoses. Alone, both approaches are liable to bias. We used Danish nationwide registers to obtain data on both prescriptions of acute migraine medications (antimigraines) and hospital discharge diagnoses of migraine to assess the relative risk of migraine across a wider spectrum of migraine presentations than previously studied. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort of 7771 individuals with childhood cancer diagnosed in the period from Jan 1st, 1978 to Dec 31st, 2017, for risk of prescription antimigraine initiation and for risk of hospitalization due to migraine. Rates of hospitalization were assessed for the entire follow-up period whereas rates of antimigraine initiations were assessed in the period from Jan 1st, 1997, to Dec 31st, 2017. Relative to the general population without childhood cancer, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each outcome. RESULTS: Individuals exposed to childhood cancer were at increased risk of antimigraine initiation (SIR of 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11-1.38) and of migraine hospitalization (SIR of 2.44, 95% CI: 1.87-3.12) from the day of their cancer diagnosis and up to 40 years after. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals diagnosed with childhood cancer have a higher risk of migraine of varying presentations, in addition to migraine resulting in hospitalization as previously reported. This potentially preventable problem warrants clinical attention.

Impact of Genetic Testing on Therapeutic Decision-Making in Childhood-Onset Epilepsies-a Study in a Tertiary Epilepsy Center.

We assessed the frequency of pediatric monogenic epilepsies and precision therapies at a tertiary epilepsy center. We analyzed medical records of children, born in 2006-2011 and followed at the Danish Epilepsy Center from January to December 2015; 357 patients were identified, of whom 27 without epilepsy and 35 with acquired brain damage were excluded. Of the remaining 295 children, 188 were consented for study inclusion and genetic testing. At inclusion, 86/188 had a preexisting genetic diagnosis and did not undergo further genetic testing. The 102 genetically unsolved patients underwent WES, which identified a (likely) pathogenic variant in eight patients and a highly relevant variant of unknown significance (VUS) in seven additional patients. Single nucleotide polymorphism array was performed in the remaining 87 patients and revealed no (likely) pathogenic copy number variants (CNVs). Patients with a genetic diagnosis had a significantly lower median age at seizure onset and more often had febrile seizures, status epilepticus, or neurodevelopmental impairment compared to those who remained genetically unsolved. Most common epilepsies were focal or multifocal epilepsies and developmental and epileptic encephalopathies (DDEs). Fifty-three patients, with a putative genetic diagnosis, were potentially eligible for precision therapy approaches. Indeed, genetic diagnosis enabled treatment adjustment in 32/53 (60%); 30/32 (93%) patients experienced at least a 50% reduction in seizure burden while only 4/32 (12.5%) became seizure-free. In summary, a genetic diagnosis was achieved in approximately 50% of patients with non-acquired epilepsy enabling precision therapy approaches in half of the patients, a strategy that results in > 50% reduction in seizure burden, in the majority of the treated patients.

Hyperhidrosis and human leucocyte antigens in the Danish Blood Donor Study.

Familial clustering of the skin disease primary hyperhidrosis suggests a genetic component to the disease. The human leucocyte antigen (HLA) is implicated in a range of diseases, including many comorbidities to hyperhidrosis. No study has investigated whether the HLA genes are involved in the pathogenesis of hyperhidrosis. We, therefore, compared HLA alleles in individuals with and without hyperhidrosis in this study of 65 000 blood donors. In this retrospective cohort study, we retrieved information on individuals with and without hyperhidrosis using self-reported questionnaires, the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish National Prescription Registry on participants recruited to the Danish Blood Donor Study between 2010 and 2019. Association tests using logistic regression were conducted for each HLA allele corrected for sex, age, body mass index, smoking and principal components. Overall, 145 of 65 795 (0.2%) participants had hospital diagnosed hyperhidrosis. Similarly, 1379 of 15 530 (8.9%) participants had moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis, of whom 447 (2.9%) had severe self-reported hyperhidrosis. Altogether, 28 participants had both hospital diagnosed and moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis. Severe self-reported hyperhidrosis was associated with HLA-A*80:01 (adjusted odds ratio 26.97; 95% confidence interval 5.32-136.70; n = 7; P < .001). Moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis and hospital diagnosed hyperhidrosis were not associated with any HLA. The association between hyperhidrosis and HLA-A*80:01 was based on a very small number of cases and not replicated in other patient subsets, and therefore likely a chance finding. Thus, this study suggests that genes other than the HLA are involved in the pathogenesis of hyperhidrosis.

Genome-wide association study of febrile seizures implicates fever response and neuronal excitability genes.

Febrile seizures represent the most common type of pathological brain activity in young children and are influenced by genetic, environmental and developmental factors. In a minority of cases, febrile seizures precede later development of epilepsy. We conducted a genome-wide association study of febrile seizures in 7635 cases and 83 966 controls identifying and replicating seven new loci, all with P < 5 × 10-10. Variants at two loci were functionally related to altered expression of the fever response genes PTGER3 and IL10, and four other loci harboured genes (BSN, ERC2, GABRG2, HERC1) influencing neuronal excitability by regulating neurotransmitter release and binding, vesicular transport or membrane trafficking at the synapse. Four previously reported loci (SCN1A, SCN2A, ANO3 and 12q21.33) were all confirmed. Collectively, the seven novel and four previously reported loci explained 2.8% of the variance in liability to febrile seizures, and the single nucleotide polymorphism heritability based on all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms was 10.8%. GABRG2, SCN1A and SCN2A are well-established epilepsy genes and, overall, we found positive genetic correlations with epilepsies (rg = 0.39, P = 1.68 × 10-4). Further, we found that higher polygenic risk scores for febrile seizures were associated with epilepsy and with history of hospital admission for febrile seizures. Finally, we found that polygenic risk of febrile seizures was lower in febrile seizure patients with neuropsychiatric disease compared to febrile seizure patients in a general population sample. In conclusion, this largest genetic investigation of febrile seizures to date implicates central fever response genes as well as genes affecting neuronal excitability, including several known epilepsy genes. Further functional and genetic studies based on these findings will provide important insights into the complex pathophysiological processes of seizures with and without fever.

Measuring flow speeds in natural waters by training an artificial neural network to analyze high-frequency flow-induced vibrations of tethered floats.

Measuring water currents in natural waters is limited by the cost of sensors. Standard sonar-based acoustic current Doppler profilers (ADCPs) are high cost, about $10-20 K per unit. Tilt current meters (TCMs) are much cheaper. They consist of a bottom-mounted subsurface float equipped with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and data center that records the float's motion and attitude as a time series. The flow speed is measured by calculating the tilt angle of the float in response to the current. However, tilt-based measurements require the float system to be carefully engineered and its physical response optimized for good results. Even so, high-frequency flow-induced vibrations often dominate the motion and must be averaged and filtered out of the data and discarded. This represents the loss of potentially valuable information, but decoding the high-frequency components for such useful data is difficult. These experiments explored using an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to extract the ambient water current speed from that high-frequency data alone, after the displacement information was filtered out. The methods were informed by the ANN designs and data augmentation techniques used by neurologists to observe the tremors and other motions exhibited by patients experiencing symptoms of Parkinson's disease. Once the model was trained using carefully selected training and validation sets to prevent overfitting, the results of evaluating previously unseen data by the model are clear and promising. Water current speed was accurately calculated from the high-frequency components of the motion sensor data and agreed with corresponding current speeds measured by established methods. This novel approach could facilitate new sensor system designs that can be empirically or self-calibrated more efficiently and have a lower barrier to application than those currently available.

Smooth muscle ATP-sensitive potassium channels mediate migraine-relevant hypersensitivity in mouse models.

BACKGROUND: Opening of KATP channels by systemic levcromakalim treatment triggers attacks in migraine patients and hypersensitivity to von Frey stimulation in a mouse model. Blocking of these channels is effective in several preclinical migraine models. It is unknown in what tissue and cell type KATP-induced migraine attacks are initiated and which KATP channel subtype is targeted. METHODS: In mouse models, we administered levcromakalim intracerebroventricularly, intraperitoneally and intraplantarily and compared the nociceptive responses by von Frey and hotplate tests. Mice with a conditional loss-of-function mutation in the smooth muscle KATP channel subunit Kir6.1 were given levcromakalim and GTN and examined with von Frey filaments. Arteries were tested for their ability to dilate ex vivo. mRNA expression, western blotting and immunohistochemical stainings were made to identify relevant target tissue for migraine induced by KATP channel opening. RESULTS: Systemic administration of levcromakalim induced hypersensitivity but central and local administration provided antinociception respectively no effect. The Kir6.1 smooth muscle knockout mouse was protected from both GTN and levcromakalim induced hypersensitivity, and their arteries had impaired dilatory response to the latter. mRNA and protein expression studies showed that trigeminal ganglia did not have significant KATP channel expression of any subtype, whereas brain arteries and dura mater primarily expressed the Kir6.1 + SUR2B subtype. CONCLUSION: Hypersensitivity provoked by GTN and levcromakalim in mice is dependent on functional smooth muscle KATP channels of extracerebral origin. These results suggest a vascular contribution to hypersensitivity induced by migraine triggers.

Analyzing Disparity and Rates of Morphological Evolution with Model-Based Phylogenetic Comparative Methods.

Understanding variation in rates of evolution and morphological disparity is a goal of macroevolutionary research. In a phylogenetic comparative methods framework, we present three explicit models for linking the rate of evolution of a trait to the state of another evolving trait. This allows testing hypotheses about causal influences on rates of phenotypic evolution with phylogenetic comparative data. We develop a statistical framework for fitting the models with generalized least-squares regression and use this to discuss issues and limitations in the study of rates of evolution more generally. We show that the power to detect effects on rates of evolution is low in that even strong causal effects are unlikely to explain more than a few percent of observed variance in disparity. We illustrate the models and issues by testing if rates of beak-shape evolution in birds are influenced by brain size, as may be predicted from a Baldwin effect in which presumptively more behaviorally flexible large-brained species generate more novel selection on themselves leading to higher rates of evolution. From an analysis of morphometric data for 645 species, we find evidence that both macro- and microevolution of the beak are faster in birds with larger brains, but with the caveat that there are no consistent effects of relative brain size.[Baldwin effect; beak shape; behavioral drive; bird; brain size; disparity; phylogenetic comparative method; rate of evolution.].

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Sleep Quality, Stress Level and Health-Related Quality of Life-A Large Prospective Cohort Study on Adult Danes.

The everyday lives of Danish inhabitants have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, e.g., by social distancing, which was employed by the government in March 2020 to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the pandemic has entailed economic consequences for many people. This study aims to assess changes in physical and mental health-related quality of life (MCS, PCS), in stress levels, and quality of sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify factors that impact such changes, using a prospective national cohort study including 26,453 participants from the Danish Blood Donor Study who answered a health questionnaire before the pandemic and during the pandemic. Descriptive statistics, multivariable linear and multinomial logistic regression analyses were applied. A worsening of MCS and quality of sleep was found, and an overall decrease in stress levels was observed. PCS was decreased in men and slightly increased in women. The extent of health changes was mainly affected by changes in job situation, type of job, previous use of anti-depressive medication and the participants' level of personal stamina. Thus, living under the unusual circumstances that persisted during the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the health of the general population. This may, in time, constitute a public health problem.