Post-COVID Conditions in US Primary Care: A PRIME Registry Comparison of Patients With COVID-19, Influenza-Like Illness, and Wellness Visits.

PURPOSE: COVID-19 is a condition that can lead to other chronic conditions. These conditions are frequently diagnosed in the primary care setting. We used a novel primary care registry to quantify the burden of post-COVID conditions among adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis across the United States. METHODS: We used the American Family Cohort, a national primary care registry, to identify study patients. After propensity score matching, we assessed the prevalence of 17 condition categories individually and cumulatively, comparing patients having COVID-19 in 2020-2021 with (1) historical control patients having influenza-like illness in 2018 and (2) contemporaneous control patients seen for wellness or preventive visits in 2020-2021. RESULTS: We identified 28,215 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis and 235,953 historical control patients with influenza-like illness. The COVID-19 group had higher prevalences of breathing difficulties (4.2% vs 1.9%), type 2 diabetes (12.0% vs 10.2%), fatigue (3.9% vs 2.2%), and sleep disturbances (3.5% vs 2.4%). There were no differences, however, in the postdiagnosis monthly trend in cumulative morbidity between the COVID-19 patients (trend = 0.026; 95% CI, 0.025-0.027) and the patients with influenza-like illness (trend = 0.026; 95% CI, 0.023-0.027). Relative to contemporaneous wellness control patients, COVID-19 patients had higher prevalences of breathing difficulties and type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a moderate burden of post-COVID conditions in primary care, including breathing difficulties, fatigue, and sleep disturbances. Based on clinical registry data, the prevalence of post-COVID conditions in primary care practices is lower than that reported in subspecialty and hospital settings.

COVID-19 Vaccine Strategy Left Small Primary Care Practices On The Sidelines.

We report on the experience of small primary care practices participating in a national clinical registry with COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination data. At the end of 2021, 11.2 percent of these practices' 3.9 million patients had records of COVID-19 vaccination; 43.1 percent of clinics had no record of patients' COVID-19 vaccinations, but 93.4 percent of clinics had provided or recorded other routine vaccinations.

Machine Learning for Pediatric Echocardiographic Mitral Regurgitation Detection.

BACKGROUND: Echocardiography-based screening for valvular disease in at-risk asymptomatic children can result in early diagnosis. These screening programs, however, are resource intensive and may not be feasible in many resource-limited settings. Automated echocardiographic diagnosis may enable more widespread echocardiographic screening, early diagnosis, and improved outcomes. In this feasibility study, the authors sought to build a machine learning model capable of identifying mitral regurgitation (MR) on echocardiography. METHODS: Echocardiograms were labeled by clip for view and by frame for the presence of MR. The labeled data were used to build two convolutional neural networks to perform the stepwise tasks of classifying the clips (1) by view and (2) by the presence of any MR, including physiologic, in parasternal long-axis color Doppler views. The view classification model was developed using 66,330 frames, and model performance was evaluated using a hold-out testing data set with 45 echocardiograms (11,730 frames). The MR detection model was developed using 938 frames, and model performance was evaluated using a hold-out testing data set with 42 echocardiograms (182 frames). Metrics to evaluate model performance included accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score (average of precision and recall, ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 suggesting perfect precision and recall), and receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: For the parasternal long-axis view with color Doppler, the view classification convolutional neural network achieved an F1 score of 0.97. The MR detection convolutional neural network achieved testing accuracy of 0.86 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning model is capable of discerning MR on transthoracic echocardiography. This is an encouraging step toward machine learning-based diagnosis of valvular heart disease on pediatric echocardiography.

Single center blind testing of a US multi-center validated diagnostic algorithm for Kawasaki disease in Taiwan.

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. The major challenge in KD diagnosis is that it shares clinical signs with other childhood febrile control (FC) subjects. We sought to determine if our algorithmic approach applied to a Taiwan cohort. Methods: A single center (Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan) cohort of patients suspected with acute KD were prospectively enrolled by local KD specialists for KD analysis. Our previously single-center developed computer-based two-step algorithm was further tested by a five-center validation in US. This first blinded multi-center trial validated our approach, with sufficient sensitivity and positive predictive value, to identify most patients with KD diagnosed at centers across the US. This study involved 418 KDs and 259 FCs from the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan. Findings: Our diagnostic algorithm retained sensitivity (379 of 418; 90.7%), specificity (223 of 259; 86.1%), PPV (379 of 409; 92.7%), and NPV (223 of 247; 90.3%) comparable to previous US 2016 single center and US 2020 fiver center results. Only 4.7% (15 of 418) of KD and 2.3% (6 of 259) of FC patients were identified as indeterminate. The algorithm identified 18 of 50 (36%) KD patients who presented 2 or 3 principal criteria. Of 418 KD patients, 157 were infants younger than one year and 89.2% (140 of 157) were classified correctly. Of the 44 patients with KD who had coronary artery abnormalities, our diagnostic algorithm correctly identified 43 (97.7%) including all patients with dilated coronary artery but one who found to resolve in 8 weeks. Interpretation: This work demonstrates the applicability of our algorithmic approach and diagnostic portability in Taiwan.

A machine-learning algorithm for diagnosis of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and Kawasaki disease in the USA: a retrospective model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a novel disease that was identified during the COVID-19 pandemic and is characterised by systemic inflammation following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Early detection of MIS-C is a challenge given its clinical similarities to Kawasaki disease and other acute febrile childhood illnesses. We aimed to develop and validate an artificial intelligence algorithm that can distinguish among MIS-C, Kawasaki disease, and other similar febrile illnesses and aid in the diagnosis of patients in the emergency department and acute care setting. METHODS: In this retrospective model development and validation study, we developed a deep-learning algorithm called KIDMATCH (Kawasaki Disease vs Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children) using patient age, the five classic clinical Kawasaki disease signs, and 17 laboratory measurements. All features were prospectively collected at the time of initial evaluation from patients diagnosed with Kawasaki disease or other febrile illness between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, at Rady Children's Hospital in San Diego (CA, USA). For patients with MIS-C, the same data were collected from patients between May 7, 2020, and July 20, 2021, at Rady Children's Hospital, Connecticut Children's Medical Center in Hartford (CT, USA), and Children's Hospital Los Angeles (CA, USA). We trained a two-stage model consisting of feedforward neural networks to distinguish between patients with MIS-C and those without and then those with Kawasaki disease and other febrile illnesses. After internally validating the algorithm using stratified tenfold cross-validation, we incorporated a conformal prediction framework to tag patients with erroneous data or distribution shifts. We finally externally validated KIDMATCH on patients with MIS-C enrolled between April 22, 2020, and July 21, 2021, from Boston Children's Hospital (MA, USA), Children's National Hospital (Washington, DC, USA), and the CHARMS Study Group consortium of 14 US hospitals. FINDINGS: 1517 patients diagnosed at Rady Children's Hospital between Jan 1, 2009, and June 7, 2021, with MIS-C (n=69), Kawasaki disease (n=775), or other febrile illnesses (n=673) were identified for internal validation, with an additional 16 patients with MIS-C included from Connecticut Children's Medical Center and 50 from Children's Hospital Los Angeles between May 7, 2020, and July 20, 2021. KIDMATCH achieved a median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve during internal validation of 98·8% (IQR 98·0-99·3) in the first stage and 96·0% (95·6-97·2) in the second stage. We externally validated KIDMATCH on 175 patients with MIS-C from Boston Children's Hospital (n=50), Children's National Hospital (n=42), and the CHARMS Study Group consortium of 14 US hospitals (n=83). External validation of KIDMATCH on patients with MIS-C correctly classified 76 of 81 patients (94% accuracy, two rejected by conformal prediction) from 14 hospitals in the CHARMS Study Group consortium, 47 of 49 patients (96% accuracy, one rejected by conformal prediction) from Boston Children's Hospital, and 36 of 40 patients (90% accuracy, two rejected by conformal prediction) from Children's National Hospital. INTERPRETATION: KIDMATCH has the potential to aid front-line clinicians to distinguish between MIS-C, Kawasaki disease, and other similar febrile illnesses to allow prompt treatment and prevent severe complications. FUNDING: US Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, US Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, US National Library of Medicine, the McCance Foundation, and the Gordon and Marilyn Macklin Foundation.

Multicenter Validation of a Machine Learning Algorithm for Diagnosing Pediatric Patients with Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome and Kawasaki Disease.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a novel disease identified during the COVID-19 pandemic characterized by systemic inflammation following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Delays in diagnosing MIS-C may lead to more severe disease with cardiac dysfunction or death. Most pediatric patients recover fully with anti-inflammatory treatments, but early detection of MIS-C remains a challenge given its clinical similarities to Kawasaki disease (KD) and other acute childhood illnesses. METHODS: We developed KIDMATCH ( K awasak I D isease vs M ultisystem Infl A mma T ory syndrome in CH ildren), a deep learning algorithm for screening patients for MIS-C, KD, or other febrile illness, using age, the five classical clinical KD signs, and 17 laboratory measurements prospectively collected within 24 hours of admission to the emergency department from 1448 patients diagnosed with KD or other febrile illness between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2019 at Rady Children's Hospital. For MIS-C patients, the same data was collected from 131 patients between May 14, 2020 to June 18, 2021 at Rady Children's Hospital, Connecticut Children's Hospital, and Children's Hospital Los Angeles. We trained a two-stage model consisting of feedforward neural networks to distinguish between MIS-C and non MIS-C patients and then KD and other febrile illness. After internally validating the algorithm using 10-fold cross validation, we incorporated a conformal prediction framework to tag patients with erroneous data or distribution shifts, enhancing the model generalizability and confidence by flagging unfamiliar cases as indeterminate instead of making spurious predictions. We externally validated KIDMATCH on 175 MIS-C patients from 16 hospitals across the United States. FINDINGS: KIDMATCH achieved a high median area under the curve in the 10-fold cross validation of 0.988 [IQR: 0.98-0.993] in the first stage and 0.96 [IQR: 0.956-0.972] in the second stage using thresholds set at 95% sensitivity to detect positive MIS-C and KD cases respectively during training. External validation of KIDMATCH on MIS-C patients correctly classified 76/83 (2 rejected) patients from the CHARMS consortium, 47/50 (1 rejected) patients from Boston Children's Hospital, and 36/42 (2 rejected) patients from Children's National Hospital. INTERPRETATION: KIDMATCH has the potential to aid frontline clinicians with distinguishing between MIS-C, KD, and similar febrile illnesses in a timely manner to allow prompt treatment and prevent severe complications. FUNDING: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, National Library of Medicine.

Gestational Dating by Urine Metabolic Profile at High Resolution Weekly Sampling Timepoints: Discovery and Validation.

Background: Pregnancy triggers longitudinal metabolic alterations in women to allow precisely-programmed fetal growth. Comprehensive characterization of such a "metabolic clock" of pregnancy may provide a molecular reference in relation to studies of adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, a high-resolution temporal profile of metabolites along a healthy pregnancy remains to be defined. Methods: Two independent, normal pregnancy cohorts with high-density weekly urine sampling (discovery: 478 samples from 19 subjects at California; validation: 171 samples from 10 subjects at Alabama) were studied. Urine samples were profiled by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) for untargeted metabolomics, which was applied for gestational age dating and prediction of time to delivery. Results: 5,473 urinary metabolic features were identified. Partial least-squares discriminant analysis on features with robust signals (n = 1,716) revealed that the samples were distributed on the basis of the first two principal components according to their gestational age. Pathways of bile secretion, steroid hormone biosynthesis, pantohenate, and CoA biosynthesis, benzoate degradation, and phenylpropanoid biosynthesis were significantly regulated, which was collectively applied to discover and validate a predictive model that accurately captures the chronology of pregnancy. With six urine metabolites (acetylcholine, estriol-3-glucuronide, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, α-lactose, hydroxyexanoy-carnitine, and l-carnitine), models were constructed based on gradient-boosting decision trees to date gestational age in high accordance with ultrasound results, and to accurately predict time to delivery. Conclusion: Our study characterizes the weekly baseline profile of the human pregnancy metabolome, which provides a high-resolution molecular reference for future studies of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Identification of patients at risk of new onset heart failure: Utilizing a large statewide health information exchange to train and validate a risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: New-onset heart failure (HF) is associated with poor prognosis and high healthcare utilization. Early identification of patients at increased risk incident-HF may allow for focused allocation of preventative care resources. Health information exchange (HIE) data span the entire spectrum of clinical care, but there are no HIE-based clinical decision support tools for diagnosis of incident-HF. We applied machine-learning methods to model the one-year risk of incident-HF from the Maine statewide-HIE. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included subjects aged ≥ 40 years without prior HF ICD9/10 codes during a three-year period from 2015 to 2018, and incident-HF defined as assignment of two outpatient or one inpatient code in a year. A tree-boosting algorithm was used to model the probability of incident-HF in year two from data collected in year one, and then validated in year three. 5,668 of 521,347 patients (1.09%) developed incident-HF in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the model c-statistic was 0.824 and at a clinically predetermined risk threshold, 10% of patients identified by the model developed incident-HF and 29% of all incident-HF cases in the state of Maine were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing machine learning modeling techniques on passively collected clinical HIE data, we developed and validated an incident-HF prediction tool that performs on par with other models that require proactively collected clinical data. Our algorithm could be integrated into other HIEs to leverage the EMR resources to provide individuals, systems, and payors with a risk stratification tool to allow for targeted resource allocation to reduce incident-HF disease burden on individuals and health care systems.

Early-pregnancy prediction of risk for pre-eclampsia using maternal blood leptin/ceramide ratio: discovery and confirmation.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a blood test for the prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) early in gestation. We hypothesised that the longitudinal measurements of circulating adipokines and sphingolipids in maternal serum over the course of pregnancy could identify novel prognostic biomarkers that are predictive of impending event of PE early in gestation. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective discovery and longitudinal confirmation. SETTING: Maternity units from two US hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Six previously published studies of placental tissue (78 PE and 95 non-PE) were compiled for genomic discovery, maternal sera from 15 women (7 non-PE and 8 PE) enrolled at ProMedDx were used for sphingolipidomic discovery, and maternal sera from 40 women (20 non-PE and 20 PE) enrolled at Stanford University were used for longitudinal observation. OUTCOME MEASURES: Biomarker candidates from discovery were longitudinally confirmed and compared in parallel to the ratio of placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase (sFlt-1) using the same cohort. The datasets were generated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometric assays. RESULTS: Our discovery integrating genomic and sphingolipidomic analysis identified leptin (Lep) and ceramide (Cer) (d18:1/25:0) as novel biomarkers for early gestational assessment of PE. Our longitudinal observation revealed a marked elevation of Lep/Cer (d18:1/25:0) ratio in maternal serum at a median of 23 weeks' gestation among women with impending PE as compared with women with uncomplicated pregnancy. The Lep/Cer (d18:1/25:0) ratio significantly outperformed the established sFlt-1/PlGF ratio in predicting impending event of PE with superior sensitivity (85% vs 20%) and area under curve (0.92 vs 0.52) from 5 to 25 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated the longitudinal measurement of maternal Lep/Cer (d18:1/25:0) ratio allows the non-invasive assessment of PE to identify pregnancy at high risk in early gestation, outperforming the established sFlt-1/PlGF ratio test.

The Correlation Between SPP1 and Immune Escape of EGFR Mutant Lung Adenocarcinoma Was Explored by Bioinformatics Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibitors have achieved breakthrough efficacy in treating lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) with wild-type epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), leading to the revision of the treatment guidelines. However, most patients with EGFR mutation are resistant to immunotherapy. It is particularly important to study the differences in tumor microenvironment (TME) between patients with and without EGFR mutation. However, relevant research has not been reported. Our previous study showed that secreted phosphoprotein 1 (SPP1) promotes macrophage M2 polarization and PD-L1 expression in LUAD, which may influence response to immunotherapy. Here, we assessed the role of SPP1 in different populations and its effects on the TME. METHODS: We compared the expression of SPP1 in LUAD tumor and normal tissues, and in samples with wild-type and mutant EGFR. We also evaluated the influence of SPP1 on survival. The LUAD data sets were downloaded from TCGA and CPTAC databases. Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with overall survival in TCGA were assessed using Cox regression analysis. GSEA revealed that several fundamental signaling pathways were enriched in the high SPP1 expression group. We applied CIBERSORT and xCell to calculate the proportion and abundance of tumor-infiltrating immune cells (TICs) in LUAD, and compared the differences in patients with high or low SPP1 expression and wild-type or mutant EGFR. In addition, we explored the correlation between SPP1 and CD276 for different groups. RESULTS: SPP1 expression was higher in LUAD tumor tissues and in people with EGFR mutation. High SPP1 expression was associated with poor prognosis. Univariate and multivariate cox analysis revealed that up-regulated SPP1 expression was independent indicator of poor prognosis. GSEA showed that the SPP1 high expression group was mainly enriched in immunosuppressed pathways. In the SPP1 high expression group, the infiltration of CD8+ T cells was lower and M2-type macrophages was higher. These results were also observed in patients with EGFR mutation. Furthermore, we found that the SPP1 expression was positively correlated with CD276, especially in patients with EGFR mutation. CONCLUSION: SPP1 levels might be a useful marker of immunosuppression in patients with EGFR mutation, and could offer insight for therapeutics.

Electronic Health Record-Based Prediction of 1-Year Risk of Incident Cardiac Dysrhythmia: Prospective Case-Finding Algorithm Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac dysrhythmia is currently an extremely common disease. Severe arrhythmias often cause a series of complications, including congestive heart failure, fainting or syncope, stroke, and sudden death. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to predict incident arrhythmia prospectively within a 1-year period to provide early warning of impending arrhythmia. METHODS: Retrospective (1,033,856 individuals enrolled between October 1, 2016, and October 1, 2017) and prospective (1,040,767 individuals enrolled between October 1, 2017, and October 1, 2018) cohorts were constructed from integrated electronic health records in Maine, United States. An ensemble learning workflow was built through multiple machine learning algorithms. Differentiating features, including acute and chronic diseases, procedures, health status, laboratory tests, prescriptions, clinical utilization indicators, and socioeconomic determinants, were compiled for incident arrhythmia assessment. The predictive model was retrospectively trained and calibrated using an isotonic regression method and was prospectively validated. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The cardiac dysrhythmia case-finding algorithm (retrospective: AUROC 0.854; prospective: AUROC 0.827) stratified the population into 5 risk groups: 53.35% (555,233/1,040,767), 44.83% (466,594/1,040,767), 1.76% (18,290/1,040,767), 0.06% (623/1,040,767), and 0.003% (27/1,040,767) were in the very low-risk, low-risk, medium-risk, high-risk, and very high-risk groups, respectively; 51.85% (14/27) patients in the very high-risk subgroup were confirmed to have incident cardiac dysrhythmia within the subsequent 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Our case-finding algorithm is promising for prospectively predicting 1-year incident cardiac dysrhythmias in a general population, and we believe that our case-finding algorithm can serve as an early warning system to allow statewide population-level screening and surveillance to improve cardiac dysrhythmia care.

High-throughput quantitation of serological ceramides/dihydroceramides by LC/MS/MS: Pregnancy baseline biomarkers and potential metabolic messengers.

Ceramides and dihydroceramides are sphingolipids that present in abundance at the cellular membrane of eukaryotes. Although their metabolic dysregulation has been implicated in many diseases, our knowledge about circulating ceramide changes during the pregnancy remains limited. In this study, we present the development and validation of a high-throughput liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometric method for simultaneous quantification of 16 ceramides and 10 dihydroceramides in human serum within 5 min. by using stable isotope-labeled ceramides as internal standards. This method employs a protein precipitation method for high throughput sample preparation, reverse phase isocratic elusion for chromatographic separation, and Multiple Reaction Monitoring for mass spectrometric detection. To qualify for clinical applications, our assay has been validated against the FDA guidelines for Lower Limit of Quantitation (1 nM), linearity (R2>0.99), precision (imprecision<15 %), accuracy (inaccuracy<15 %), extraction recovery (>90 %), stability (>85 %), and carryover (<0.01 %). With enhanced sensitivity and specificity from this method, we have, for the first time, determined the serological levels of ceramides and dihydroceramides to reveal unique temporal gestational patterns. Our approach could have value in providing insights into disorders of pregnancy.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance Combining Genetic Risk Loci Identified From Next Generation Sequencing and Laboratory Data in Kawasaki Disease.

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common cause of acquired heart disease. A proportion of patients were resistant to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), the primary treatment of KD, and the mechanism of IVIG resistance remains unclear. The accuracy of current models predictive of IVIG resistance is insufficient and doesn't meet the clinical expectations. Objectives: To develop a scoring model predicting IVIG resistance of patients with KD. Methods: We recruited 330 KD patients (50 IVIG non-responders, 280 IVIG responders) and 105 healthy children to explore the susceptibility loci of IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. A next generation sequencing technology that focused on 4 immune-related pathways and 472 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was performed. An R package SNPassoc was used to identify the risk loci, and student's t-test was used to identify risk factors associated with IVIG resistance. A random forest-based scoring model of IVIG resistance was built based on the identified specific SNP loci with the laboratory data. Results: A total of 544 significant risk loci were found associated with IVIG resistance, including 27 previous published SNPs. Laboratory test variables, including erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet (PLT), and C reactive protein, were found significantly different between IVIG responders and non-responders. A scoring model was built using the top 9 SNPs and clinical features achieving an area under the ROC curve of 0.974. Conclusions: It is the first study that focused on immune system in KD using high-throughput sequencing technology. Our findings provided a prediction of the IVIG resistance by integrating the genotype and clinical variables. It also suggested a new perspective on the pathogenesis of IVIG resistance.

Maternal metabolic profiling to assess fetal gestational age and predict preterm delivery: a two-centre retrospective cohort study in the US.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a single blood test that could determine gestational age and estimate the risk of preterm birth by measuring serum metabolites. We hypothesised that serial metabolic modelling of serum analytes throughout pregnancy could be used to describe fetal gestational age and project preterm birth with a high degree of precision. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Two medical centres from the USA. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-six patients (20 full-term, 16 preterm) enrolled at Stanford University were used to develop gestational age and preterm birth risk algorithms, 22 patients (9 full-term, 13 preterm) enrolled at the University of Alabama were used to validate the algorithms. OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal blood was collected serially throughout pregnancy. Metabolic datasets were generated using mass spectrometry. RESULTS: A model to determine gestational age was developed (R2=0.98) and validated (R2=0.81). 66.7% of the estimates fell within ±1 week of ultrasound results during model validation. Significant disruptions from full-term pregnancy metabolic patterns were observed in preterm pregnancies (R2=-0.68). A separate algorithm to predict preterm birth was developed using a set of 10 metabolic pathways that resulted in an area under the curve of 0.96 and 0.92, a sensitivity of 0.88 and 0.86, and a specificity of 0.96 and 0.92 during development and validation testing, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, metabolic profiling was used to develop and test a model for determining gestational age during full-term pregnancy progression, and to determine risk of preterm birth. With additional patient validation studies, these algorithms may be used to identify at-risk pregnancies prompting alterations in clinical care, and to gain biological insights into the pathophysiology of preterm birth. Metabolic pathway-based pregnancy modelling is a novel modality for investigation and clinical application development.

Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 positivity of infected and recovered patients from a single center.

Recurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive detection in infected but recovered individuals has been reported. Patients who have recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could profoundly impact the health care system. We sought to define the kinetics and relevance of PCR-positive recurrence during recovery from acute COVID-19 to better understand risks for prolonged infectivity and reinfection. A series of 414 patients with confirmed SARS-Cov-2 infection, at The Second Affiliated Hospital of Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, China from January 11 to April 23, 2020. Statistical analyses were performed of the clinical, laboratory, radiologic image, medical treatment, and clinical course of admission/quarantine/readmission data, and a recurrence predictive algorithm was developed. 16.7% recovered patients with PCR positive recurring one to three times, despite being in strict quarantine. Younger patients with mild pulmonary respiratory syndrome had higher risk of PCR positivity recurrence. The recurrence prediction model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.786. This case series provides characteristics of patients with recurrent SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Use of a prediction algorithm may identify patients at high risk of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 positivity and help to establish protocols for health policy.

Pertussis-like syndrome often not associated with Bordetella pertussis: 5-year study in a large children's hospital.

Background: Recently, a resurgence of pertussis has been observed worldwide despite broad vaccination coverage. The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical characteristics and the aetiological agent of pertussis-like syndrome (PLS) in Eastern China.Methods: 1168 patients who were diagnosed with a suspected Bordetella pertussis in Shanghai Children's Hospital from 2013 to 2017 were included in the study. Clinical features and aetiologies were analysed. Aetiological analyses in sub-cohorts of age, seasons and years were also investigated.Results: 96.0% (1121) of the patients were less than 12 months old. 59.0% (689) of the patients were male. The Top 5 pathogens were respiratory syncytial virus (RSV; n = 125; 10.7%), Streptococcus pneumonia (SP; n = 109; 9.3%), Haemophilus influenzae type b (HIB; n = 86; 7.4%), Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis; n = 84; 7.2%), and Mycoplasma pneumonia (MP; n = 80; 6.9%), respectively. The percentage of SP in the age group of 0-3 months was significantly lower than that in other age groups. The percentage of B. pertussis in the age group of 3-6 months was significantly lower than that in the group of 6-12 months. The percentage of MP in 0-3 months' group was significantly lower than that in >12 months group. RSV peaked in winter (n = 52), while HIB peaked in spring (n = 38).Conclusion: PLS occurred most often in infants. RSV, SP, HIB, B. pertussis, and MP were the most prevalent pathogens. Since patients with B. pertussis and other pathogens have similar clinical manifestations, diagnosis of pertussis should be based on both clinical symptoms and laboratory confirmation.

Identification of elders at higher risk for fall with statewide electronic health records and a machine learning algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: Predicting the risk of falls in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce mortality and morbidity in the older population. The aim of this study was to construct and validate an electronic health record-based fall risk predictive tool to identify elders at a higher risk of falls. METHODS: The one-year fall prediction model was developed using the machine-learning-based algorithm, XGBoost, and tested on an independent validation cohort. The data were collected from electronic health records (EHR) of Maine from 2016 to 2018, comprising 265,225 older patients (≥65 years of age). RESULTS: This model attained a validated C-statistic of 0.807, where 50 % of the identified high-risk true positives were confirmed to fall during the first 94 days of next year. The model also captured in advance 58.01 % and 54.93 % of falls that happened within the first 30 and 30-60 days of next year. The identified high-risk patients of fall showed conditions of severe disease comorbidities, an enrichment of fall-increasing cardiovascular and mental medication prescriptions and increased historical clinical utilization, revealing the complexity of the underlying fall etiology. The XGBoost algorithm captured 157 impactful predictors into the final predictive model, where cognitive disorders, abnormalities of gait and balance, Parkinson's disease, fall history and osteoporosis were identified as the top-5 strongest predictors of the future fall event. CONCLUSIONS: By using the EHR data, this risk assessment tool attained an improved discriminative ability and can be immediately deployed in the health system to provide automatic early warnings to older adults with increased fall risk and identify their personalized risk factors to facilitate customized fall interventions.

Multicentre validation of a computer-based tool for differentiation of acute Kawasaki disease from clinically similar febrile illnesses.

BACKGROUND: The clinical features of Kawasaki disease (KD) overlap with those of other paediatric febrile illnesses. A missed or delayed diagnosis increases the risk of coronary artery damage. Our computer algorithm for KD and febrile illness differentiation had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.8%, 70.8%, 93.7% and 98.3%, respectively, in a single-centre validation study. We sought to determine the performance of this algorithm with febrile children from multiple institutions across the USA. METHODS: We used our previously published 18-variable panel that includes illness day, the five KD clinical criteria and readily available laboratory values. We applied this two-step algorithm using a linear discriminant analysis-based clinical model followed by a random forest-based algorithm to a cohort of 1059 acute KD and 282 febrile control patients from five children's hospitals across the USA. RESULTS: The algorithm correctly classified 970 of 1059 patients with KD and 163 of 282 febrile controls resulting in a sensitivity of 91.6%, specificity of 57.8% and PPV and NPV of 95.4% and 93.1%, respectively. The algorithm also correctly identified 218 of the 232 KD patients (94.0%) with abnormal echocardiograms. INTERPRETATION: The expectation is that the predictive accuracy of the algorithm will be reduced in a real-world setting in which patients with KD are rare and febrile controls are common. However, the results of the current analysis suggest that this algorithm warrants a prospective, multicentre study to evaluate its potential utility as a physician support tool.

Changes in pregnancy-related serum biomarkers early in gestation are associated with later development of preeclampsia.

BACKGROUND: Placental protein expression plays a crucial role during pregnancy. We hypothesized that: (1) circulating levels of pregnancy-associated, placenta-related proteins throughout gestation reflect the temporal progression of the uncomplicated, full-term pregnancy, and can effectively estimate gestational ages (GAs); and (2) preeclampsia (PE) is associated with disruptions in these protein levels early in gestation; and can identify impending PE. We also compared gestational profiles of proteins in the human and mouse, using pregnant heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) heterozygote (Het) mice, a mouse model reflecting PE-like symptoms. METHODS: Serum levels of placenta-related proteins-leptin (LEP), chorionic somatomammotropin hormone like 1 (CSHL1), elabela (ELA), activin A, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and placental growth factor (PlGF)-were quantified by ELISA in blood serially collected throughout human pregnancies (20 normal subjects with 66 samples, and 20 subjects who developed PE with 61 samples). Multivariate analysis was performed to estimate the GA in normal pregnancy. Mean-squared errors of GA estimations were used to identify impending PE. The human protein profiles were then compared with those in the pregnant HO-1 Het mice. RESULTS: An elastic net-based gestational dating model was developed (R2 = 0.76) and validated (R2 = 0.61) using serum levels of the 6 proteins measured at various GAs from women with normal uncomplicated pregnancies. In women who developed PE, the model was not (R2 = -0.17) associated with GA. Deviations from the model estimations were observed in women who developed PE (P = 0.01). The model developed with 5 proteins (ELA excluded) performed similarly from sera from normal human (R2 = 0.68) and WT mouse (R2 = 0.85) pregnancies. Disruptions of this model were observed in both human PE-associated (R2 = 0.27) and mouse HO-1 Het (R2 = 0.30) pregnancies. LEP outperformed sFlt-1 and PlGF in differentiating impending PE at early human and late mouse GAs. CONCLUSIONS: Serum placenta-related protein profiles are temporally regulated throughout normal pregnancies and significantly disrupted in women who develop PE. LEP changes earlier than the well-established biomarkers (sFlt-1 and PlGF). There may be evidence of a causative action of HO-1 deficiency in LEP upregulation in a PE-like murine model.