Predicted declines in sickle allele frequency in Jamaica using empirical data.

The high frequency of the sickle allele in some parts of Africa is understood to be a consequence of high malarial endemicity. One corollary of this is that the sickle allele frequency should be declining in populations of African ancestry that are no longer exposed to malaria. We have previously shown that there has been no change in sickle allele frequency in malaria-free Jamaica between two large-scale neonatal screening exercises conducted in 1973-1981 and 1995-2003. To evaluate the determinants of, and derive expected values for, sickle allele frequency in Jamaica, local empirical data were used to estimate the parameters of deterministic models of allele frequency decline. We found that although model predictions were broadly consistent with observed values in the 1973-1981 cohort, the predicted change in allele frequency between the two cohorts was larger than the observed, nonsignificant, reduction. Close agreement between predicted and observed values was only achieved by simulating a recent, marked increase in HbSS fitness. Thus, the "unexpected" persistence of the sickle allele in Jamaica may reflect the fact that the actual fitness among SS individuals is higher than that previously realized. If true, our models suggest that without substantial changes in current screening and counseling practice, there will be little "natural" reduction in sickle allele frequency for several hundred years. Better estimates of relative fitness will be helpful in refining these predictions and may aid in assigning health care priorities in Jamaica and the African Diaspora.

The frequency of the sickle allele in Jamaica has not declined over the last 22 years.

The 'malaria hypothesis' predicts that the frequency of the sickle allele, which is high in malaria-endemic African populations, should decline with each generation in populations of African descent living in areas where malaria is no longer endemic. In order to determine whether this has been the case in Jamaica, we compared haemoglobin electrophoresis results from two hospital-based screening programmes separated by more than 20 years (i.e. approximately one generation). The first comprised 100,000 neonates screened between 1973 and 1981, the second, 104,183 neonates screened between 1995 and 2003. The difference in frequency of the sickle allele was small (5.47% in the first cohort and 5.38% in the second screening cohort) and not significant (Z = 1.23, P = 0.22). The same was true of the sickle trait frequency (10.05% in the first cohort and 9.85% in the second, Z = 1.45, P = 0.15). These differences were smaller than predicted under simple deterministic models based on the malaria hypothesis, and suggest that these models may not capture important determinants of allele and trait frequency decline (or persistence) in contemporary populations. Refining the expectations for allele and trait frequency change for Jamaica and other similar populations is an area for future study.

Detection and characterization of pangola stunt Fijivirus from Australia using cloned cDNA probes.

Four cDNA clones were generated from the genomic dsRNA of an Australian isolate of pangola stunt Fijivirus (PaSV). Each clone hybridized with nucleic acid extracts from PaSV infected plants but not healthy plants. Further, each clone hybridized with more than one segment of the PaSV dsRNA genome. One clone was used to demonstrate that homology existed between the Australian isolate of PaSV and a South American isolate of PaSV although the isolates differed in the sizes of the genomic dsRNAs and in the vector species. The clone also hybridized with some segments of the maize rough dwarf Fijivirus genome.