Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture.

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice's whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity.

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures.

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Drivers of realized satellite tracking duration in marine turtles.

BACKGROUND: Satellite tags have revolutionized our understanding of marine animal movements. However, tags may stop transmitting for many reasons and little research has rigorously examined tag failure. Using a long-term, large-scale, multi-species dataset, we evaluated factors influencing tracking duration of satellite tags to inform study design for future tracking studies. METHODS: We leveraged data on battery status transmitted with location data, recapture events, and number of transmission days to probabilistically quantify multiple potential causes of failure (i.e., battery failure, premature detachment, and tag damage/fouling). We used a combination of logistic regressions and an ordinary linear model including several predictor variables (i.e., tag type, battery life, species, sex, size, and foraging region). RESULTS: We examined subsets of data from 360 satellite tags encompassing 86,889 tracking days deployed on four species of marine turtles throughout the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Bahamas from 2008 to 2019. Only 4.1% of batteries died before failure due to other causes. We observed species-specific variation in how long tags remain attached: hawksbills retained 50% of their tags for 1649 days (95% CI 995-1800), loggerheads for 584 days (95% CI 400-690), and green turtles for 294 days (95% CI 198-450). Estimated tracking duration varied by foraging region (Caribbean: 385 days; Bahamas: 356; southern Gulf of Mexico [SGOM]: 276, northern Gulf of Mexico [NGOM]: 177). Additionally, we documented species-specific variation in estimated tracking duration among foraging regions. Based on sensor data, within the Gulf of Mexico, across species, we estimated that 50% of tags began to foul after 83 95% CI (70-120) days. CONCLUSIONS: The main factor that limited tracking duration was tag damage (i.e., fouling and/or antenna breakage). Turtles that spent most of their time in the Gulf of Mexico had shorter tracking durations than those in the Bahamas and Caribbean, with shortest durations observed in the NGOM. Additionally, tracking duration varied by species, likely as a result of behaviors that damage tags. This information will help researchers, tag companies, permitting agencies, and funders better predict expected tracking durations, improving study designs for imperiled marine turtles. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in telemetry device longevity, and we provide a framework for researchers to evaluate telemetry devices with respect to their study objectives.

Shifts in hatching date of American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida.

Globally temperature of marine environments is on the rise and temperature plays an important role in the life-history of reptiles. In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature and average date of hatching for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) over a 37-year period at two nesting sites, Everglades National Park and Florida Power and Light Turkey Point Power Plant site in southern Florida. Our results indicate that hatch dates are shifting 1.5 days earlier every two years and at half that rate for the Turkey Point site, and with every 1 °C degree increase in temperature, hatching occurs about 10 days earlier in the Everglades and 6 days earlier at Turkey Point. Our results on shifting hatch dates for American crocodiles provide further details about the impacts of temperature change on crocodile life history and suggest that increased temperature may affect their phenology.

Loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) diving changes with productivity, behavioral mode, and sea surface temperature.

The relationship between dive behavior and oceanographic conditions is not well understood for marine predators, especially sea turtles. We tagged loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) with satellite-linked depth loggers in the Gulf of Mexico, where there is a minimal amount of dive data for this species. We tested for associations between four measurements of dive behavior (total daily dive frequency, frequency of dives to the bottom, frequency of long dives and time-at-depth) and both oceanographic conditions (sea surface temperature [SST], net primary productivity [NPP]) and behavioral mode (inter-nesting, migration, or foraging). From 2011-2013 we obtained 26 tracks from 25 adult female loggerheads tagged after nesting in the Gulf of Mexico. All turtles remained in the Gulf of Mexico and spent about 10% of their time at the surface (10% during inter-nesting, 14% during migration, 9% during foraging). Mean total dive frequency was 41.9 times per day. Most dives were ≤ 25 m and between 30-40 min. During inter-nesting and foraging, turtles dived to the bottom 95% of days. SST was an important explanatory variable for all dive patterns; higher SST was associated with more dives per day, more long dives and more dives to the seafloor. Increases in NPP were associated with more long dives and more dives to the bottom, while lower NPP resulted in an increased frequency of overall diving. Longer dives occurred more frequently during migration and a higher proportion of dives reached the seafloor during foraging when SST and NPP were higher. Our study stresses the importance of the interplay between SST and foraging resources for influencing dive behavior.

Cytonuclear discordance in the Florida Everglades invasive Burmese python (Python bivittatus) population reveals possible hybridization with the Indian python (P. molurus).

The invasive Burmese python (Python bivittatus) has been reproducing in the Florida Everglades since the 1980s. These giant constrictor snakes have caused a precipitous decline in small mammal populations in southern Florida following escapes or releases from the commercial pet trade. To better understand the invasion pathway and genetic composition of the population, two mitochondrial (mtDNA) loci across 1,398 base pairs were sequenced on 426 snakes and 22 microsatellites were assessed on 389 snakes. Concatenated mtDNA sequences produced six haplotypes with an average nucleotide and haplotype diversity of π = 0.002 and h = 0.097, respectively. Samples collected in Florida from morphologically identified P. bivittatus snakes were similar to published cytochrome oxidase 1 and cytochrome b sequences from both P. bivittatus and Python molurus and were highly divergent (genetic distances of 5.4% and 4.3%, respectively). The average number of microsatellite alleles and expected heterozygosity were N A = 5.50 and H E = 0.60, respectively. Nuclear Bayesian assignment tests supported two genetically distinct groups and an admixed group, not geographically differentiated. The effective population size (N E = 315.1) was lower than expected for a population this large, but reflected the low genetic diversity overall. The patterns of genetic diversity between mtDNA and microsatellites were disparate, indicating nuclear introgression of separate mtDNA lineages corresponding to cytonuclear discordance. The introgression likely occurred prior to the invasion, but genetic information on the native range and commercial trade is needed for verification. Our finding that the Florida python population is comprised of distinct lineages suggests greater standing variation for adaptation and the potential for broader areas of suitable habitat in the invaded range.

Novel ecological and climatic conditions drive rapid adaptation in invasive Florida Burmese pythons.

Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genomewide adaptation on short "ecological" timescales. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behaviour and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic data sets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures has driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often-overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.

Sympatry or syntopy? Investigating drivers of distribution and co-occurrence for two imperiled sea turtle species in Gulf of Mexico neritic waters.

Animals co-occurring in a region (sympatry) may use the same habitat (syntopy) within that region. A central aim in ecology is determining what factors drive species distributions (i.e., abiotic conditions, dispersal limitations, and/or biotic interactions). Assessing the degree of biotic interactions can be difficult for species with wide ranges at sea. This study investigated the spatial ecology of two sea turtle species that forage on benthic invertebrates in neritic GoM waters: Kemp's ridleys (Lepidochelys kempii) and loggerheads (Caretta caretta). We used satellite tracking and modeled behavioral modes, then calculated individual home ranges, compared foraging areas, and determined extent of co-occurrence. Using six environmental variables and principal component analysis, we assessed similarity of chosen foraging sites. We predicted foraging location (eco-region) based on species, nesting site, and turtle size. For 127 turtles (64 Kemp's ridleys, 63 loggerheads) tracked from 1989 to 2013, foraging home ranges were nine to ten times larger for Kemp's ridleys than for loggerheads. Species intersected off all U.S. coasts and the Yucatán Peninsula, but co-occurrence areas were small compared to species' distributions. Kemp's ridley foraging home ranges were concentrated in the northern GoM, whereas those for loggerheads were concentrated in the eastern GoM. The two species were different in all habitat variables compared (latitude, longitude, distance to shore, net primary production, mean sea surface temperature, and bathymetry). Nesting site was the single dominant variable that dictated foraging ecoregion. Although Kemp's ridleys and loggerheads may compete for resources, the separation in foraging areas, significant differences in environmental conditions, and importance of nesting location on ecoregion selection (i.e., dispersal ability) indicate that adult females of these species do not interact greatly during foraging and that dispersal and environmental factors more strongly determine their distributions. These species show sympatry in this region but evidence for syntopy was rare.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Inter-nesting movements and habitat-use of adult female Kemp's ridley turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

Species vulnerability is increased when individuals congregate in restricted areas for breeding; yet, breeding habitats are not well defined for many marine species. Identification and quantification of these breeding habitats are essential to effective conservation. Satellite telemetry and switching state-space modeling (SSM) were used to define inter-nesting habitat of endangered Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) in the Gulf of Mexico. Turtles were outfitted with satellite transmitters after nesting at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, USA, from 1998 through 2013 (n = 60); Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico, during 2010 and 2011 (n = 11); and Tecolutla, Veracruz, Mexico, during 2012 and 2013 (n = 11). These sites span the range of nearly all nesting by this species. Inter-nesting habitat lies in a narrow band of nearshore western Gulf of Mexico waters in the USA and Mexico, with mean water depth of 14 to 19 m within a mean distance to shore of 6 to 11 km as estimated by 50% kernel density estimate, α-Hull, and minimum convex polygon methodologies. Turtles tracked during the inter-nesting period moved, on average, 17.5 km/day and a mean total distance of 398 km. Mean home ranges occupied were 725 to 2948 km2. Our results indicate that these nearshore western Gulf waters represent critical inter-nesting habitat for this species, where threats such as shrimp trawling and oil and gas platforms also occur. Up to half of all adult female Kemp's ridleys occupy this habitat for weeks to months during each nesting season. Because inter-nesting habitat for this species is concentrated in nearshore waters of the western Gulf of Mexico in both Mexico and the USA, international collaboration is needed to protect this essential habitat and the turtles occurring within it.

Biomarkers reveal sea turtles remained in oiled areas following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Assessments of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, are problematic because while measurements of post-disturbance conditions are common, measurements of pre-disturbance baselines are only rarely available. Without adequate observations of pre-disaster organismal and environmental conditions, it is impossible to assess the impact of such catastrophes on animal populations and ecological communities. Here, we use long-term biological tissue records to provide pre-disaster data for a vulnerable marine organism. Keratin samples from the carapace of loggerhead sea turtles record the foraging history for up to 18 years, allowing us to evaluate the effect of the oil spill on sea turtle foraging patterns. Samples were collected from 76 satellite-tracked adult loggerheads in 2011 and 2012, approximately one to two years after the spill. Of the 10 individuals that foraged in areas exposed to surface oil, none demonstrated significant changes in foraging patterns post spill. The observed long-term fidelity to foraging sites indicates that loggerheads in the northern Gulf of Mexico likely remained in established foraging sites, regardless of the introduction of oil and chemical dispersants. More research is needed to address potential long-term health consequences to turtles in this region. Mobile marine organisms present challenges for researchers to monitor effects of environmental disasters, both spatially and temporally. We demonstrate that biological tissues can reveal long-term histories of animal behavior and provide critical pre-disaster baselines following an anthropogenic disturbance or natural disaster.

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat.

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0-73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4-39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.

Determining origin in a migratory marine vertebrate: a novel method to integrate stable isotopes and satellite tracking.

Stable isotope analysis is a useful tool to track animal movements in both terrestrial and marine environments. These intrinsic markers are assimilated through the diet and may exhibit spatial gradients as a result of biogeochemical processes at the base of the food web. In the marine environment, maps to predict the spatial distribution of stable isotopes are limited, and thus determining geographic origin has been reliant upon integrating satellite telemetry and stable isotope data. Migratory sea turtles regularly move between foraging and reproductive areas. Whereas most nesting populations can be easily accessed and regularly monitored, little is known about the demographic trends in foraging populations. The purpose of the present study was to examine migration patterns of loggerhead nesting aggregations in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), where sea turtles have been historically understudied. Two methods of geographic assignment using stable isotope values in known-origin samples from satellite telemetry were compared: (1) a nominal approach through discriminant analysis and (2) a novel continuous-surface approach using bivariate carbon and nitrogen isoscapes (isotopic landscapes) developed for this study. Tissue samples for stable isotope analysis were obtained from 60 satellite-tracked individuals at five nesting beaches within the GoM. Both methodological approaches for assignment resulted in high accuracy of foraging area determination, though each has advantages and disadvantages. The nominal approach is more appropriate when defined boundaries are necessary, but up to 42% of the individuals could not be considered in this approach. All individuals can be included in the continuous-surface approach, and individual results can be aggregated to identify geographic hotspots of foraging area use, though the accuracy rate was lower than nominal assignment. The methodological validation provides a foundation for future sea turtle studies in the region to inexpensively determine geographic origin for large numbers of untracked individuals. Regular monitoring of sea turtle nesting aggregations with stable isotope sampling can be used to fill critical data gaps regarding habitat use and migration patterns. Probabilistic assignment to origin with isoscapes has not been previously used in the marine environment, but the methods presented here could also be applied to other migratory marine species.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling improves occurrence and detection estimates of invasive burmese pythons.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR) for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), Northern African python (P. sebae), boa constrictor (Boa constrictor), and the green (Eunectes murinus) and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus). Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive constrictors. Generic sampling design and terminology are proposed to standardize and clarify interpretations of eDNA-based occupancy models.

Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades.

To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range.

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades.

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Migration, foraging, and residency patterns for Northern Gulf loggerheads: implications of local threats and international movements.

Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) loggerheads (Caretta caretta) make up one of the smallest subpopulations of this threatened species and have declining nest numbers. We used satellite telemetry and a switching state-space model to identify distinct foraging areas used by 59 NGoM loggerheads tagged during 2010-2013. We tagged turtles after nesting at three sites, 1 in Alabama (Gulf Shores; n = 37) and 2 in Florida (St. Joseph Peninsula; n = 20 and Eglin Air Force Base; n = 2). Peak migration time was 22 July to 9 August during which >40% of turtles were in migration mode; the mean post-nesting migration period was 23.0 d (±13.8 d SD). After displacement from nesting beaches, 44 turtles traveled to foraging sites where they remained resident throughout tracking durations. Selected foraging locations were variable distances from tagging sites, and in 5 geographic regions; no turtles selected foraging sites outside the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Foraging sites delineated using 50% kernel density estimation were located a mean distance of 47.6 km from land and in water with mean depth of -32.5 m; other foraging sites, delineated using minimum convex polygons, were located a mean distance of 43.0 km from land and in water with a mean depth of -24.9 m. Foraging sites overlapped with known trawling activities, oil and gas extraction activities, and the footprint of surface oiling during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (n = 10). Our results highlight the year-round use of habitats in the GoM by loggerheads that nest in the NGoM. Our findings indicate that protection of females in this subpopulation requires both international collaborations and management of threats that spatially overlap with distinct foraging habitats.

Homing of invasive Burmese pythons in South Florida: evidence for map and compass senses in snakes.

Navigational ability is a critical component of an animal's spatial ecology and may influence the invasive potential of species. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) are apex predators invasive to South Florida. We tracked the movements of 12 adult Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park, six of which were translocated 21-36 km from their capture locations. Translocated snakes oriented movement homeward relative to the capture location, and five of six snakes returned to within 5 km of the original capture location. Translocated snakes moved straighter and faster than control snakes and displayed movement path structure indicative of oriented movement. This study provides evidence that Burmese pythons have navigational map and compass senses and has implications for predictions of spatial spread and impacts as well as our understanding of reptile cognitive abilities.

Foraging area fidelity for Kemp's ridleys in the Gulf of Mexico.

For many marine species, locations of key foraging areas are not well defined. We used satellite telemetry and switching state-space modeling (SSM) to identify distinct foraging areas used by Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) tagged after nesting during 1998-2011 at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, USA (PAIS; N = 22), and Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico (RN; N = 9). Overall, turtles traveled a mean distance of 793.1 km (±347.8 SD) to foraging sites, where 24 of 31 turtles showed foraging area fidelity (FAF) over time (N = 22 in USA, N = 2 in Mexico). Multiple turtles foraged along their migratory route, prior to arrival at their "final" foraging sites. We identified new foraging "hotspots" where adult female Kemp's ridley turtles spent 44% of their time during tracking (i.e., 2641/6009 tracking days in foraging mode). Nearshore Gulf of Mexico waters served as foraging habitat for all turtles tracked in this study; final foraging sites were located in water <68 m deep and a mean distance of 33.2 km (±25.3 SD) from the nearest mainland coast. Distance to release site, distance to mainland shore, annual mean sea surface temperature, bathymetry, and net primary production were significant predictors of sites where turtles spent large numbers of days in foraging mode. Spatial similarity of particular foraging sites selected by different turtles over the 13-year tracking period indicates that these areas represent critical foraging habitat, particularly in waters off Louisiana. Furthermore, the wide distribution of foraging sites indicates that a foraging corridor exists for Kemp's ridleys in the Gulf. Our results highlight the need for further study of environmental and bathymetric components of foraging sites and prey resources contained therein, as well as international cooperation to protect essential at-sea foraging habitats for this imperiled species.